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i'm thinking we should hold off on SC until the first overreactionary poll, right? the prices, for the most part, seem sane.
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Feb 11, 2016 18:17
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There's very believable Bill Kristol "leaked" SC poll today, he won't say from who so grain of salt and all: https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/697824027981832194 I'm of the opinion this was sampled pre-NH but post-debate. No Trump bump, obviously.
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Feb 11, 2016 19:27
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Peachstapler posted:There's very believable Bill Kristol "leaked" SC poll today, he won't say from who so grain of salt and all: I'm of the opinion that he just made it up entirely because it's Bill Kristol.
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Feb 11, 2016 19:38
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Noooooooooooooo
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Feb 11, 2016 19:39
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gently caress you Jim Webb a million times over for filing the stupid FEC paperwork for a presidential race THAT WAS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN and losing me $5 
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Feb 11, 2016 20:00
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i think it's worth $2 buying a few shares of carson dropping out at $.03. or maybe i'm just feeling oh so burned by carly
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Feb 11, 2016 20:04
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Abel Wingnut posted:i think it's worth $2 buying a few shares of carson dropping out at $.03. He ain't droppin out. He wants to siphon as many religious votes from Cruz as possible. If not for Trump, then because Cruz burned him.
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Feb 11, 2016 20:06
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Abel Wingnut posted:i think it's worth $2 buying a few shares of carson dropping out at $.03.
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Feb 11, 2016 20:11
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Combed Thunderclap posted:gently caress you Jim Webb a million times over for filing the stupid FEC paperwork for a presidential race THAT WAS NEVER GOING TO HAPPEN and losing me $5 This was my first big loss. Still salty about it
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Feb 11, 2016 20:12
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The Webb market was the best because nobody actually realized he announced he was running officially for what, like, 12 hours or something?
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Feb 11, 2016 20:17
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speaking time at the dem debate is 56/44 clinton but isn't that essentially a coinflip? e: and kasich < 2% is 75/25 yes on feb 29 seems way low. with all these dropouts i have to think his percentage goes up. is the fear he'll drop out after SC? would he really do that? abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 20:25 on Feb 11, 2016 |
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Feb 11, 2016 20:21
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Abel Wingnut posted:speaking time at the dem debate is 56/44 clinton but isn't that essentially a coinflip? We're getting into pretty crazy territory with the field converging and election results influencing future polling. I know the standard song & dance here is 'don't bet on polls' but seriously, don't bet on polls.
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Feb 11, 2016 20:30
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Man, this SC3rd market is hard. Do I bet against JEB!, a historically good bet, or against Rubio, also a safe bet post exposure as a robot? They're both so bad but also just not bad enough to totally place 3rd.
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Feb 11, 2016 20:35
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Gyges posted:Man, this SC3rd market is hard. Do I bet against JEB!, a historically good bet, or against Rubio, also a safe bet post exposure as a robot? They're both so bad but also just not bad enough to totally place 3rd. Embrace Kasichmentum.
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Feb 11, 2016 20:38
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Platystemon posted:Embrace Kasichmentum. No, I like my money. My only yes bet is a low bid on Trump coming in 2nd. Everything else is playing the no game. I pray to god my Rubio and Bush bids get filled on 3rd though. Because holy poo poo is everyone else cheap for the slim, slim chance they place 3rd. Kasich will of course have me dancing if he somehow does come in 3rd though thanks to my Bush and Rubio bets both paying off.
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Feb 11, 2016 20:45
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I want Bush and Rubio 3RD shares badly but not for 40 cents a pop. A good poll will shake that up.
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Feb 11, 2016 20:50
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The only thing I have money on in SC 3rd is Kasich NO. Looking forward to some actual polling and not Bill Kristol trolling for attention
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Feb 11, 2016 21:03
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I immediately bought and flipped a couple hundred SC 3rd Kasich NO shares once they hit .90. Wondering if I should jump back in before the first poll but it's already up to .92
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Feb 11, 2016 23:06
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New market on whether the moderator will mention Gloria Steinem in tonight's debate. Currently at 47c. I'm thinking no, but I'm not confident enough to bet on it. Thoughts? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2069/Will-a-PBS-moderator-or-questioner-bring-up-Gloria-Steinem
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Feb 11, 2016 23:11
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Corrupt Politician posted:New market on whether the moderator will mention Gloria Steinem in tonight's debate. Currently at 47c. I'm thinking no, but I'm not confident enough to bet on it. Thoughts? I think it's much more possible than the coin question was.
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Feb 11, 2016 23:35
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Gyges posted:So out of curiosity, why is it that when the polls close they take out risk adjustment fees as they pay out? I'm sure I'm just not thinking of something obvious as I see another fee added to their 5% fee before the total reaches my "wallet". The profit is what your shares made if they'd all been independent. The risk adjustment is the money they'd already credited you when you purchased the shares. Yes, it's bullshit that they take the best-case scenario when calculating your "profit" instead of what you actually made but hey whatchagonnado
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Feb 12, 2016 00:02
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Necc0 posted:The profit is what your shares made if they'd all been independent. The risk adjustment is the money they'd already credited you when you purchased the shares. Yes, it's bullshit that they take the best-case scenario when calculating your "profit" instead of what you actually made but hey whatchagonnado Isn’t what’s technically going on that you’re paying profit on every share that won, not the net profit? A guaranteed profit on paper can actually be a loss in a linked market.
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Feb 12, 2016 02:12
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Been flipping Steinem YES shares for a while now, I have no idea if they'll actually ask it or not
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Feb 12, 2016 02:26
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FourLeaf posted:Been flipping Steinem YES shares for a while now, I have no idea if they'll actually ask it or not Oh debate markets are a great idea to flip, guaranteed volume
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Feb 12, 2016 02:40
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They just asked Hillary about the women gap without mentioning Steinem. rip my money edit oh my god they brought up Albright
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Feb 12, 2016 03:26
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Platystemon posted:Isn’t what’s technically going on that you’re paying profit on every share that won, not the net profit? Yup.
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Feb 12, 2016 04:01
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railroad terror posted:Dang, I didn't get 80 cents for NO, but I did get upper 80s. Kasich, if he's lucky, will double or triple his 1-2% in the polls there on election day.
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Feb 12, 2016 04:06
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Aliquid posted:They just asked Hillary about the women gap without mentioning Steinem. rip my money Glad I got out when I did. Flipping is a lot safer. Only made ~$3.00 in profit but it makes me feel a bit better after Carly yesterday.
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Feb 12, 2016 04:14
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FourLeaf posted:Glad I got out when I did. Flipping is a lot safer. Only made ~$3.00 in profit but it makes me feel a bit better after Carly yesterday. Was trying to flip, had a sell order at .02 higher than my buy-in price. I forgot the market locks. Sigh.
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Feb 12, 2016 04:41
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Protip: if you've made money off TRUMP.SCPRMRY16.GOP sell before Sunday.
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Feb 12, 2016 09:17
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Jewel Repetition posted:Protip: if you've made money off TRUMP.SCPRMRY16.GOP sell before Sunday. You really think he's going to lose?
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Feb 12, 2016 09:23
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a cop posted:You really think he's going to lose? No, I just think the new polls are going to damage his stock slightly because the race will be tighter. You can buy them up again after the polls are released to RIDE THE WAVE.
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Feb 12, 2016 09:31
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Jewel Repetition posted:No, I just think the new polls are going to damage his stock slightly because the race will be tighter. You can buy them up again after the polls are released to RIDE THE WAVE. Hmmmm. Think they'll get lower than 60 cents though???
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Feb 12, 2016 09:35
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a cop posted:Hmmmm. Think they'll get lower than 60 cents though??? Possibly right at the initial overreaction.
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Feb 12, 2016 09:40
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Jewel Repetition posted:No, I just think the new polls are going to damage his stock slightly because the race will be tighter. You can buy them up again after the polls are released to RIDE THE WAVE. You assume the post-New Hampshire polls will show a decline?
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Feb 12, 2016 13:25
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The Real Paddy posted:You assume the post-New Hampshire polls will show a decline?
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Feb 12, 2016 15:18
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Peachstapler posted:Personally I don't think his numbers will decline as much as Cruz' will increase. A tighter race would still negatively impact Trump. This seems possible, but it would also seem appropriate to not dismiss the idea of a bump, or a certain percentage of ex-Rubio, Christie, and Fiorina voters (especially the last two) to go to Trump. Ted Cruz has room to grow, and so does Trump. I have no idea what will happen, I suppose it seems more probable that the race be tighter, but, I don't really think the idea of a Trump bump should be surprising.
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Feb 12, 2016 15:34
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The Real Paddy posted:This seems possible, but it would also seem appropriate to not dismiss the idea of a bump, or a certain percentage of ex-Rubio, Christie, and Fiorina voters (especially the last two) to go to Trump. Ted Cruz has room to grow, and so does Trump. I have no idea what will happen, I suppose it seems more probable that the race be tighter, but, I don't really think the idea of a Trump bump should be surprising.
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Feb 12, 2016 17:08
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a cop posted:You really think he's going to lose? Personally I do think he's going to lose. He's still running with baby's first ground game and you can no longer register to vote for the primary in SC. Voter registration deadlines are really going to duck Trump, and to a lesser extent Bernie. Bernie has a ground game and understands the limits, Trump runs a circus and has been surviving off same day registered voters in Iowa and NH. Cruz, conversely has been planning and setting up for the Southern leg of the primary the whole time. With JEB being JEB and Rubio trying to recover from his error loop, Cruz is looking good. Well, metaphorically anyway, we are talking about Cruz.
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Feb 12, 2016 17:23
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Gyges posted:Personally I do think he's going to lose. He's still running with baby's first ground game and you can no longer register to vote for the primary in SC. Voter registration deadlines are really going to duck Trump, and to a lesser extent Bernie. Bernie has a ground game and understands the limits, Trump runs a circus and has been surviving off same day registered voters in Iowa and NH. Oh poo poo. Interesting points. Where do you get that Trump has been surviving off of same-day registrants, though?
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Feb 12, 2016 17:27
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