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UnoriginalMind posted:Does Trump always fluctuate like this during debates? He literally said Bush knowingly lied about Iraq's WMD program. I have no idea how that's going to shake out.
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Feb 14, 2016 03:56
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Trump going full retard on 9/11 could be the beginning of the end for him. For real this time! GWB's approval rating among GOP voters is extremely high.
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Feb 14, 2016 04:01
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If Trump's going to end up collapsing after this, I'm probably cutting my losses. My god. If he throws away a 17 point lead, I clearly can't predict what will happen in any of these markets at *all*
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Feb 14, 2016 04:03
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Arkane posted:Trump going full retard on 9/11 could be the beginning of the end for him. For real this time! I thought like 40% of Americans believe "bush knew" ??
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Feb 14, 2016 04:05
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lol this will not stump the trump
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Feb 14, 2016 04:07
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They're all hurting each other, I'm honestly not sure that anyone watching this that supported him before will be swayed to any of these damaged goods. And now Rubio suicide bombing Cruz on immigration.
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Feb 14, 2016 04:08
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Has any candidate for president hated anyone as much as Trump hates Jeb? He LOATHES him.
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Feb 14, 2016 04:11
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At first I was thinking this was going to hurt Trump but everyone looks like a shithead coming out of this.
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Feb 14, 2016 04:13
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People are naturally doing their sell trump shuffle on PI. Get your cheap trumps while you can
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Feb 14, 2016 04:15
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Necc0 posted:At first I was thinking this was going to hurt Trump but everyone looks like a shithead coming out of this. It's exactly what most goons were hoping for in terms of the GOP eating itself. The average voter is still going to like Trump most because he tells it like it is.
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Feb 14, 2016 04:15
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a cop posted:It's exactly what most goons were hoping for in terms of the GOP eating itself. The average voter is still going to like Trump most because he tells it like it is. The party really is eating itself. It's what I wanted to happen, but not what I thought would happen.
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Feb 14, 2016 04:50
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watwat posted:People are naturally doing their sell trump shuffle on PI. Get your cheap trumps while you can Snapped up a few SC YES at .77
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Feb 14, 2016 04:51
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So full no sweep on the tree debate questions it looks like.
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Feb 14, 2016 04:52
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watwat posted:So full no sweep on the tree debate questions it looks like. Yuppp. Glad I hedged my no's on "push polls", but wish I went for a 3 no clean sweep.
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Feb 14, 2016 05:01
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Getting some Trump poll 35% at 46 (buy was at 60 earlier)...I think after a SC and quite possibly NV win, that the price will shoot back up for either a flip or a hold. Hopefully this is the bottom.
The Real Paddy has issued a correction as of 05:25 on Feb 14, 2016 |
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Feb 14, 2016 05:17
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The Real Paddy posted:Getting some Trump poll 35% at 46 (buy was at 60 earlier)...I think after a SC and quite possibly NV win, that the price will shoot back up for either a flip or a hold. Hopefully this is the bottom. With the recent polls he'd have to perform spectacularly for a hold to pay off. Just hope that people are bad at math for a flip.
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Feb 14, 2016 05:21
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a cop posted:With the recent polls he'd have to perform spectacularly for a hold to pay off. Just hope that people are bad at math for a flip. It got to 60 or 61 before, and there was a national with Trump at 44 post-NH. My thinking is that it won't be too unreasonable to expect bumps post-SC, since we've seen that sort of behavior before. But yeah, I'm not planning on a hold.
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Feb 14, 2016 05:27
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The Real Paddy posted:It got to 60 or 61 before, and there was a national with Trump at 44 post-NH. My thinking is that it won't be too unreasonable to expect bumps post-SC, since we've seen that sort of behavior before. But yeah, I'm not planning on a hold. Whoa what?? Where's the 44% one? The rules state that it's based upon http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html .
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Feb 14, 2016 05:29
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The Real Paddy posted:It got to 60 or 61 before, and there was a national with Trump at 44 post-NH. My thinking is that it won't be too unreasonable to expect bumps post-SC, since we've seen that sort of behavior before. But yeah, I'm not planning on a hold. I'm on the opposite side of that trade....I've got about 700 NO in that contract.
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Feb 14, 2016 05:31
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Trump SC has recovered to pre-debate levels but Trump RNOM has not, able to buy at .42
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Feb 14, 2016 05:32
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a cop posted:Whoa what?? Where's the 44% one? The rules state that it's based upon http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html . http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/presidential-races/269229-poll-over-4-in-10-back-trump-nationwide From Morning Consult, which I had thought was reputable...guess it could be an outlier? "Morning Consult conducted its latest poll of 710 Republican and Republican-leaning independent voters nationwide Feb. 10-11. It has a 3.7 percentage point margin of error." [edit] - I'm just anticipating a post SC-bounce in share price, not making predictions aside from that, but I guess we'll see. The Real Paddy has issued a correction as of 05:43 on Feb 14, 2016 |
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Feb 14, 2016 05:40
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Who cares if they're disreputable? RCP accepts them and PI accepts RCP, that's all that matters.
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Feb 14, 2016 05:47
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RCP doesn't accept morning consult
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Feb 14, 2016 05:52
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Aliquid posted:Who cares if they're disreputable? RCP accepts them and PI accepts RCP, that's all that matters. RCP does not use Morning Consult's online "poll."
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Feb 14, 2016 05:53
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Arkane posted:RCP does not use Morning Consult's online "poll." Wow, you're right. It's been ten days since a real update.
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Feb 14, 2016 06:18
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Bought my Trump YES for SC during tonight's debate. Anyone holding Trump NO?
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Feb 14, 2016 06:25
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Aliquid posted:Who cares if they're disreputable? RCP accepts them and PI accepts RCP, that's all that matters. This is true, I saw it as a possible data point for future polls that are accepted by the RCP. Guess we'll see since it's all hypothetical at this point.
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Feb 14, 2016 07:05
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I want a market on the next SCOTUS justice’s religion. It’s degenerate gambling territory, but it could be interesting.
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Feb 14, 2016 16:46
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Since it does appear I was wrong as all gently caress about Cruz surging ahead, what's you guy's opinion on his placement in SC, 2nd or 3rd? I think I'm just getting worn out by all the Trump idiots in my life and am now just really, really hoping he gets stumped so they'll stop with the blithering idiocy.
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Feb 14, 2016 16:52
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Gonna wait on a poll. I flipped a bunch of Kasich SC last night.
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Feb 14, 2016 17:05
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Just bought both Cruz and Rubio 2nd and flipped them in seconds. Liquidity owns
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Feb 14, 2016 17:11
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Gyges posted:Since it does appear I was wrong as all gently caress about Cruz surging ahead, what's you guy's opinion on his placement in SC, 2nd or 3rd? 3rd place market is throwing curveballs --- I still don't think a moderate Republican like Kaisich will unseat a regional favorite like Bush from 3rd, if anyone does it'll be Rubio.
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Feb 14, 2016 17:29
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Yeah, he doesn't have the organization or money. Kasich will be 4th or 5th easily.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:03
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Aliquid posted:Yeah, he doesn't have the organization or money. Kasich will be 4th or 5th easily.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:06
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I got 456 shares of Kasich NO for **2nd** in South Carolina @ 86 cents. Not too shabby.
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Feb 14, 2016 18:33
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railroad terror posted:I got 456 shares of Kasich NO for **2nd** in South Carolina @ 86 cents. Not too shabby. Thanks for the tip. I got the last 78 of them at that price
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Feb 14, 2016 19:29
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I can't believe how easy it is to make money w/ this site. I've almost recovered my losses in the stock market over the last year! It's going to suck when this election season ends..
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Feb 14, 2016 19:59
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Was putting some thought into the polling markets- how exactly are those averages calculated for the purposes of paying out or not on PI? Is it just the "RCP Average" up there at the top of http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html ? If that's the case Trump would need to perform absurdly well nationally in order for that to possibly resolve as a yes. Seems like "no" is pretty crazy underpriced, right? What are the odds that several polls come out with Trump at 40-50% over the course of the next few weeks?
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Feb 14, 2016 21:59
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a cop posted:Was putting some thought into the polling markets- how exactly are those averages calculated for the purposes of paying out or not on PI? Always in the most stupid, exploitable way possible.
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Feb 14, 2016 22:16
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For Trump to hit 35%, he just needs a couple polls to go his way. If PPP does a new poll before the end of the month or more polls come in that 25 is likely to be rolled off. Hell, with RCP there's not telling if all the polls they're using now are gone by the end of the month.
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Feb 14, 2016 22:43
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