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DarkCrawler posted:I mean right now the "hopeful" option seems to be the Balkanization of Syria, pretty much. that seems like its going to be the only option at this point. just split it apart like Yugoslavia and hope for the best.  not that that can happen any time soon since is now basically forever mutilple proxy war.
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Feb 15, 2016 22:22
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Dapper_Swindler posted:that seems like its going to be the only option at this point. just split it apart like Yugoslavia and hope for the best. There is also the problem of very localized resources (water, oil) which makes it much harder to split countries apart because certain groups will be much better of than others.
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Feb 15, 2016 22:29
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sparatuvs posted:Apparently the group holding Mare is going to let the SDF enter and join their forces. Sinteres posted:As Turkey continues to step up their artillery fire against the Kurds, now reportedly hitting the city of Efrin which is nowhere near the front lines, one would think the hypocrisy of sitting on their hands while continuing to border ISIS to this day and doing nothing of the sort to them would become apparent. I know France has already called for the shelling to end, and the US has put out the typical 'both sides need to cut it out' response, but I hope someone actually calls them on their poo poo. Other news, SDF got a T-62 tank: https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/699305709628977152 This one is pretty easy to confirm as true given that the pictures of the tank are right there.   I've seen rumblings that the SDF has taken Kafr Nasih, we'll see if that's true. Also I've seen Ahras referred to as "a Kurdish village" on r/ Syrian Civil War, so we'll see if it stays in SAA hands or not. fade5 fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Feb 15, 2016 |
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Feb 15, 2016 22:40
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To clarify since this as been confusing as gently caress, those maps are accurate in that the FSA currently holds Azaz and that's who the YPG/SDF are fighting, correct?
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Feb 15, 2016 23:01
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:To clarify since this as been confusing as gently caress, those maps are accurate in that the FSA currently holds Azaz and that's who the YPG/SDF are fighting, correct? Yes, Northern Storm is technically in control of Azaz.
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Feb 15, 2016 23:08
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:To clarify since this as been confusing as gently caress, those maps are accurate in that the FSA currently holds Azaz and that's who the YPG/SDF are fighting, correct? MothraAttack posted:Yes, Northern Storm is technically in control of Azaz. A cool gif from LCaribinier:  The last frame shows the SDF having already reached the ISIL frontline; I don't think that's happened quite yet, but it probably will in the next day or so.
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Feb 15, 2016 23:23
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The SAA has started videoing their ATGM hits: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0WwVltCoY2I
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Feb 15, 2016 23:27
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fade5 posted:Looks like the lines are being drawn. The Aleppo FSA/opposition groups have a choice of siding with the YPG/SDF/US or Ahrar al Sham/Turkey. Why the gently caress would they side with the SDF which has been proven time and time again to be a defacto militia for the regime? They do not battle Assad and have their own breakaway project. Why would a rebel group interested in fighting Assad tyranny join them? What is the difference between then and Assad's "Moderate, partiortic" Opposition whom are sponsored by Damascus and Russia? Savy Saracen salad fucked around with this message at 23:37 on Feb 15, 2016 |
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Feb 15, 2016 23:33
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mediadave posted:The SAA has started videoing their ATGM hits: Using an anti-tank guided missile to take out a guy climbing a hill seems wasteful.
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Feb 15, 2016 23:55
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Savy Saracen salad posted:Why the gently caress would they side with the SDF which has been proven time and time again to be a defacto militia for the regime? They do not battle Assad and have their own breakaway project. Why would a rebel group interested in fighting Assad tyranny join them? What is the difference between then and Assad's "Moderate, partiortic" Opposition whom are sponsored by Damascus and Russia? The SDF doesn't attack the regime directly because it's a necessary condition for them to keep getting western support. It's a necessary condition for them to get western support because of diplomacy with Russia. And you should ask yourself whether you'd rather be in a city liberated from Daesh by the SAA or by the SDF...
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Feb 16, 2016 00:05
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Freezer posted:Using an anti-tank guided missile to take out a guy climbing a hill seems wasteful. They picked up excessive TOW use as a strategy a year or so ago, and it resulted in a lot of big rebel gains. So now they shoot TOW's at everything that moves.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:06
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Why do TOWS look like they move really weird from behind? Like they seem to pause and jump around.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:12
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Savy Saracen salad posted:Why the gently caress would they side with the SDF which has been proven time and time again to be a defacto militia for the regime? They do not battle Assad and have their own breakaway project. Why would a rebel group interested in fighting Assad tyranny join them? What is the difference between then and Assad's "Moderate, partiortic" Opposition whom are sponsored by Damascus and Russia? And while you seem to think the Kurds and Assad are one and the same, they are not, not in the least. Just because the Kurds are not shooting at Assad does not mean that they are friends with him; the Kurds want autonomy, which precludes being directly under Assad's rule again. fade5 fucked around with this message at 00:18 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 00:15
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Banana Man posted:Why do TOWS look like they move really weird from behind? Like they seem to pause and jump around. They're manually guided by a piece of string.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:16
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https://twitter.com/Conflicts/status/699190858176970752
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Feb 16, 2016 00:30
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God that is depressing. More news: https://twitter.com/QSD00963/status/699370321133096960 quote:#SDF (#QSD) now control Kafr Nasih south of #Til_Rifaat , and Negotiations ongoing to enter #Mare without any fight. A long tweet with interesting info: https://twitter.com/jenanmoussa/status/699360154911956992 quote:Jaish ElThowar commander Ahmad AlOmar just spoke to @akhbar. He says: "Tal Rifaat, Kafr Naya & Kafr Naseh under control of SDF" #Syria Ahraz/Ahras/Ehrez/Ithrez/Ihres/goddammit make up your minds already is this place: fade5 posted:Also I've seen Ahras referred to as "a Kurdish village" on r/ Syrian Civil War, so we'll see if it stays in SAA hands or not.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:48
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Freezer posted:Using an anti-tank guided missile to take out a guy climbing a hill seems wasteful. Yeah I clicked that wondering how many tanks the SAA is fighting. Then I see some dude on a bicycle being taken out.
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Feb 16, 2016 00:51
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Ragingsheep posted:They're manually guided by a piece of string. Weapons tech gets weird sometimes, attaching a spool of wire to a loving rocket and calling it a guidance system is the very last thing I ever would have thought to do but I guess it works pretty well. 
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Feb 16, 2016 00:58
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Count Roland posted:Yeah I clicked that wondering how many tanks the SAA is fighting. Then I see some dude on a bicycle being taken out. Volkerball posted:They picked up excessive TOW use as a strategy a year or so ago, and it resulted in a lot of big rebel gains. So now they shoot TOW's at everything that moves. Now all we need are SDF forces with TOWs taking out ISIL tanks/SVBEIDs and we can complete the set.  E:  Afrin now officially borders ISIL. You can see why the Kurds would want control of Ahras/Ihrez/unspellable town beyond just the "Kurdish town" part of it. fade5 fucked around with this message at 01:19 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 00:59
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I just had a thought. While there has been alot of talk about how the regime would be too weak in the short and medium term to take on the YPG in full, what about the western territories? As I see it , while the eastern cantons are in a far away place across a river , Afrin and the areas to the west look to be in easy reach of even a very weak SAA. I'm just wondering what would keep them from sending choppers and conscripts to what would seem like an easy mark and what could the YPG realistically do to stop them?
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Feb 16, 2016 01:02
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Ikasuhito posted:I just had a thought. While there has been alot of talk about how the regime would be too weak in the short and medium term to take on the YPG in full, what about the western territories? As I see it , while the eastern cantons are in a far away place across a river , Afrin and the areas to the west look to be in easy reach of even a very weak SAA. I'm just wondering what would keep them from sending choppers and conscripts to what would seem like an easy mark and what could the YPG realistically do to stop them? I believe that since Afrin is not actively hostile, there's no particular reason to go after them right now. On the other hand various rebel groups still control lots of territory, and then there's IS there too. SAA doesn't really have conscripts to spare at this point.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:06
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Ikasuhito posted:I just had a thought. While there has been alot of talk about how the regime would be too weak in the short and medium term to take on the YPG in full, what about the western territories? As I see it , while the eastern cantons are in a far away place across a river , Afrin and the areas to the west look to be in easy reach of even a very weak SAA. I'm just wondering what would keep them from sending choppers and conscripts to what would seem like an easy mark and what could the YPG realistically do to stop them? Count Roland posted:I believe that since Afrin is not actively hostile, there's no particular reason to go after them right now. On the other hand various rebel groups still control lots of territory, and then there's IS there too. SAA doesn't really have conscripts to spare at this point. In this situation, starting another long, protracted fight with the Kurds seems like a massively bad idea for Assad when he's already dealing with a Sunni insurgency, and especially when it would be a lot easier for him to just leave the Kurds alone if the Kurds continue to leave the SAA alone. This applies to both east and west, and especially if the Kurds succeed in uniting their cantons into a giant strip along the Turkish border, which is looking like an increasingly plausible outcome.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:18
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I have to say, Russia and Iran played their hands correctly. As it stands Assad's regime will collapse if he doesn't dance to their tune. They basically stood on the sidelines long enough for the SAA to become a broken husk and then jumped in with support. The YPG/SDF is in a similar boat, not due to hollowed out forces, but Russian aid/refraining from bombing them and them being fairly surrounded by hostile regimes.
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Feb 16, 2016 01:51
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Banana Man posted:Why do TOWS look like they move really weird from behind? Like they seem to pause and jump around. Not all atgms do this. Wire guided tows tend to jump around because like other have said, they are manually controlled by a long spool of wire. There are newer types of atgms that are laser or or heat guided and some of them fly very stable. Also some are worse, I can't remember which one it is but I think one of the older Russian atgms actually spins while it flys.
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Feb 16, 2016 02:07
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I guess the good(?) news is, the SDF/QSD/YPG have cut off any advance further north of regime forces, which should give civilians some breathing room (maybe, Erdogan's head is stuffed so far up his rear end his intestines look like a gimp suit). It's too bad the Kurds couldn't snuggle up close enough to Aleppo to the citizen bail safely, because it's about to take a level in crapsack/grimdark.
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Feb 16, 2016 02:20
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At this point, it is very clear that the regime or its allies going after the YPG/SDF at this point would be counter production especially since the YPG/SDF are extremely useful "co-belligerents" for in the short and long term. The Kurds are providing a very useful buffer zone between Turkey and government held territory while gradual dismantling or absorbing the rest of the opposition in the north, also they are keeping ISIS occupied to some extent which gives the regime a freer hand if they want to absorb ISIS territory (and they have). Moreover, a "special friendship" gives Russia and Iran a fair amount of leverage versus Erdogan, especially if north Syria acts as a supply zone for PKK forces in Turkey proper. I would say if anything the relationship that the Kurds and pro-regime forces have at this point is actually a decisively advantageous for both sides. So on to another point, it is that posted video confirmation that pro-regime militias have TOWs or is it another missile? It seems like it would be a major issue if the regime and all the militias they are allied with including Hezbollah (maybe even Iran?) now have access to TOWs. A TOW missile is certainly potent enough to be an issue for most NATO if not Israeli hardware. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 02:45 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 02:26
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With the way weapons switch hands during this conflict, it was due to happen sooner or later. If it wasn't SAA it could have been Daesh or someone else. This is one of the strong arguments against providing advanced AA systems.
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Feb 16, 2016 02:39
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Freezer posted:With the way weapons switch hands during this conflict, it was due to happen sooner or later. If it wasn't SAA it could have been Daesh or someone else. This is one of the strong arguments against providing advanced AA systems. That said, it could be just a surplus Soviet Konkurks. Nevertheless, it still makes me wonder about of the wisdom of not only providing TOWs but flooding the country with them until they were used regularly as AP systems. Also, aren't some of the groups joining the SDF "vetted" groups they might have gotten TOWs? Edit: Re-watching it, it looks a lot more like a Konkurks. Ardennes fucked around with this message at 02:51 on Feb 16, 2016 |
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Feb 16, 2016 02:42
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The TOW programme didn't (and doesn't) just consist of dumping hundreds of them over the border to whoever wants them and being all "Enjoy lol bye".
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Feb 16, 2016 03:09
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Radio Prune posted:The TOW programme didn't (and doesn't) just consist of dumping hundreds of them over the border to whoever wants them and being all "Enjoy lol bye". Is that true for Turkey too?
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Feb 16, 2016 03:15
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Cat Mattress posted:Turkey is backing two kinds of people: those who are of the right ethnicity (Turkmens), and those who have political opinions compatible with Erdogan's ideas (Jabhat al-Nusra, Ahrar ash-Sham, Jaysh al-Islam, Daesh). In a pinch, they'll also support anyone who is busy killing Kurds. I am not sure Daesh is quite compatible, but they annoy people who are not Erdogan more than they annoy Erdogan, and they are doing their very best to kill a lot of Kurds. So close enough.
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Feb 16, 2016 03:28
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Oracle posted:Have you forgotten the 'accidental' bombing of the MSF hospital in Afghanistan already? You could even take it to the next (conspiracy?) level and speculate that Putin's endgame is for Europe to become so overrun with refugees that their populations end up voting in right wing parties that he may have more influence over than the US has.  The US on the other hand don't have anything much to gain from intentionally bombing hospitals that I can think of.
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Feb 16, 2016 04:59
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I think people are confusing TOWS with the multiple different anti tank guided missiles (atgms) that are out there. a TOW is an American designed ATGM that is used on hummers and bradley fighting vehicles among other uses and has been provided to the Syrian rebels that are somewhat on the "moderate" side of the spectrum. Also I think this has been regulated to some degree, Ive heard that the rebels have to hand over every empty tow casing back to whoever is providing them (the US or gulf countries) in order to get new ones. However TOWs havent been the only ATGM seen in this conflict. The Syrian regime has had a multitude of Russian designed ATGMS from before the conflict started and have been in use throughout the war by both sides. (The rebels have captured them from Regime stockpiles) ATGMs like konkurs, fagot, kornet etc. Theres even been Chinese designed HJ-8s used by the rebels. Im not sure if any islamist groups like Al Nusra have gotten their hands on any TOWs yet but it wouldnt surprised me if they have considering how close some of these groups work with moderate groups. And I highly doubt the regime side has gotten any TOWs at all from rebel stocks.
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Feb 16, 2016 05:21
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Iran has a TOW knock-off if I recall. Tophoon?
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Feb 16, 2016 05:52
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CNN put out an interesting video today from the Frontlines in Aleppo. While CNN identifies all the military hardware in this vid as regime, it sure looks a lot to me like Russian equipment. But maybe its equipment that the Russians have recently given to the regime, or it might be actual Russian soldiers who knows. You can see BTR-82 apcs, Russian looking transport trucks, and the tanks could possibly be T90s (Ive never been very good at telling a T90 from a T72) and LOL they are using UN tents. http://www.cnn.com/videos/world/2016/02/15/syria-frontline-fight-isis-pleitgen-pkg.cnn/video/playlists/crisis-in-syria/
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Feb 16, 2016 05:55
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Holy crap get a load of this pic of the Assad family from before the war Picture caption "Rare (& old) pic of the Assads. Bashar, Maher, Bushra, Anissa (now dead), Asef Shawkat (killed) & their kids. "
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Feb 16, 2016 06:02
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Charliegrs posted:Holy crap get a load of this pic of the Assad family from before the war In an alternate universe, Bashar is still an opthamologist in the UK.
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Feb 16, 2016 07:12
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Frosted Flake posted:Iran has a TOW knock-off if I recall. Tophoon? Toophan, and yeah Iran manufactures its own TOWs, there's like 5 versions. Syria and Hezbollah are listed as operators, so I don't think the US is particularly concerned about TOWs ending up in their hands.
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Feb 16, 2016 07:22
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Ardennes posted:That said, it could be just a surplus Soviet Konkurks Konkurs means bankruptcy in Swedish. The thought of Russia exporting bad economic situations made me giggle.
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Feb 16, 2016 07:40
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Ramrod Hotshot posted:In an alternate universe, Bashar is still an opthamologist in the UK.
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Feb 16, 2016 07:57
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