|
The Bush dropout market has no idea what to do with itself. The latest CNN poll shows Bush at 1% in Nevada though so I'm guessing PI thinks a poor showing in SC means Bush is done for.
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 13:01
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 00:42 |
|
|
nachos posted:The Bush dropout market has no idea what to do with itself. The latest CNN poll shows Bush at 1% in Nevada though so I'm guessing PI thinks a poor showing in SC means Bush is done for. I think he's done for, but the number seems high in respect to the timing. I guess maybe he'll act out of concern for his dignity, but he hasn't so far.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 13:12
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:Thoughts on why Will the Senate vote on any SCOTUS nominee before Obama leaves office? averages 50˘ (albeit with ±10˘ bid–ask spread)? They can't let them out of committee or else they're likely to be voted in. Not only are there still a decent enough amount of old school Republicans who actually take their job seriously, the Republicans in the swing states up for reelection can't take the hit of voting no. Straight up stonewalling from the start and refusing to even hold hearings is the least bad option for them. If they do hold hearings they have to find something wrong with the nominee other than being covered in Obama cooties. If the nominee actually makes it out of the Judiciary Committee then they start off at 48 yes votes minimum, since at least 2 Republicans would have to vote yes on sending them out of committee. That means Democrats/The Administration just have to whisper "November 8th" in the ear of Kirk and Johnson to get to 50 which is a win thanks to Diamond Joe.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 13:27
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:Thoughts on why Will the Senate vote on any SCOTUS nominee before Obama leaves office? averages 50˘ (albeit with ±10˘ bid–ask spread)? Even if they get out of committee they can be filibustered.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 14:26
|
|
|
The only SCOTUS market I'd be comfortable betting on right now is YES on the Senate voting (not confirming) on the appointee, and maybe a YES on the next nominee being a woman. The one thing you can definitely count on is a severe market overreaction to whoever Obama does nominate. That's where you can make some money on these markets. All my money right now is tied up in John Kasich not getting 2nd place in South Carolina, and I refuse to sell for less than 99 cents.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 15:02
|
|
|
RE: Nevada Learned a valuable lesson this morning --- don't put too much stock in old polls.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 15:14
|
|
|
railroad terror posted:
Isn't your cost basis 86 and you have several hundred dollars tied up and you can sell it today for 98? He probably won't get 2nd, but this type of reasoning is how people get wiped out.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 16:16
|
|
|
Zeta Taskforce posted:Isn't your cost basis 86 and you have several hundred dollars tied up and you can sell it today for 98? He probably won't get 2nd, but this type of reasoning is how people get wiped out. You're absolutely right ---plus, there's another guy offering 5000+ shares above me for 99 already. Might take a few days to actually unload this stuff. I'm better off just taking the 98.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 16:36
|
|
|
Letting out a brief lol for those who assumed Clinton was a lock in Nevada. 
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 16:56
|
|
|
The Real Paddy posted:Trump Poll 35% up 27 today, might cash out and put into Cruz 2nd in SC. Grabbed Rubio at 2nd in SC. I think he can eek out a win over Cruz if his momentum continues and he doesn't have any major cockups.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 16:58
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Letting out a brief lol for those who assumed Clinton was a lock in Nevada. I haven't been following this: did we finally get some decent polling data?
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 16:58
|
|
|
I really thought the debate would hurt Trump, looks like basically nothing changed.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 17:02
|
|
|
Necc0 posted:I haven't been following this: did we finally get some decent polling data?
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 17:03
|
|
|
TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:I really thought the debate would hurt Trump, looks like basically nothing changed. Nothing will hurt Trump until Rubio/Kasich/Jeb consolidate or until the general election. It's pretty clear by now that his support is firmly locked in and he's bulletproof in a 5-way race.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 17:38
|
|
|
Ahh hell. I never thought we'd see Trump polling at nearly 40% nationally so soon. I'm suddenly in a hole with a fair bit of trump above 35% NO shares. I never shoulda doubted my boy..
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 17:38
|
|
|
nachos posted:Nothing will hurt Trump until Rubio/Kasich/Jeb consolidate or until the general election. It's pretty clear by now that his support is firmly locked in and he's bulletproof in a 5-way race. 
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 17:40
|
|
|
How much will Cruz's organization help him in SC? Also, why is Rubio gaining on him so quickly? I would have thought that Rubio had thoroughly been branded with the "Establishment Robot" label by now.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 17:50
|
|
|
Just got out of the trump poll market w/ some decent losses. Learned two things: 1) DON'T bet against trump you fool! 2) DON'T bet on polls!!!!!!!
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 18:02
|
|
|
Corrupt Politician posted:How much will Cruz's organization help him in SC? Also, why is Rubio gaining on him so quickly? I would have thought that Rubio had thoroughly been branded with the "Establishment Robot" label by now. That would be a good thing for Rubio, he just might be getting the consolidation he needs
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 18:02
|
|
|
Corrupt Politician posted:How much will Cruz's organization help him in SC? Also, why is Rubio gaining on him so quickly? I would have thought that Rubio had thoroughly been branded with the "Establishment Robot" label by now. Cruz has invested a lot in SC -- how his machine helps him (or doesn't do poo poo) will be pretty indicative of Super Tuesday results for him in like-minded states. I personally think Rubio is gaining on him because primary voters have short memories, support is soft and fluid during primaries, and Cruz has taken an absolute beating on several fronts. Nobody likes him outside his base. Meanwhile, Rubio, despite his hilarious robot gaffe, hasn't really screwed anything else up and isn't really in a different place than he was a week or two weeks ago.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 18:03
|
|
|
If someone told me a few months ago that the republican race would be a blowout and the Dem race would be a dead heat I would have called them insane. If all the (relatively) naive Sanders fans who bet up his numbers across the board end up going to this bank it'll be hilarious.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 18:27
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:If someone told me a few months ago that the republican race would be a blowout and the Dem race would be a dead heat I would have called them insane. I saw a guy who said he max'ed out on Bernie YES in South Carolina so maybe not all of them are going to the bank.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 18:55
|
|
|
I divested myself from Bernie after Iowa on the grounds that’s he’d only go up in the immediate future (lead‐up to NH, basking in NH glory). I never bought back in.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 19:07
|
|
|
Platystemon posted:I divested myself from Bernie after Iowa on the grounds that’s he’d only go up in the immediate future (lead‐up to NH, basking in NH glory).
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 19:14
|
|
|
The NV caucus market should be fun on Saturday.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:09
|
|
|
railroad terror posted:The NV caucus market should be fun on Saturday. I'm not betting money anymore but I'm calling a 53-46 win for Sanders.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:15
|
|
|
Protip: the big Vegas unions aren't endorsing because they support Sanders but don't know if he can actually win.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:16
|
|
|
I wonder if Sanders can still get momentum in the southern states just in time for Super Tuesday?
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:16
|
|
|
Everyone post your hot picks....I need to make back my losses from blindly following arkane! (which is usually a sound strategy) ((and could still turn out to be good but I panicked))
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:17
|
|
|
a cop posted:Everyone post your hot picks....I need to make back my losses from blindly following arkane! (which is usually a sound strategy) ((and could still turn out to be good but I panicked)) TRUMP.INDY.2016 NO at .80 seems like an easy flip for a few bucks after he wins SC
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:24
|
|
|
Rubio coming in a strong second would be very good, for me.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:29
|
|
|
Arkane posted:Rubio coming in a strong second would be very good, for me.  I agree
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:50
|
|
|
railroad terror posted:
I paid the same average, but only picked up 132 shares. I should have grabbed more after Haley endorsed, even if just to flip them.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 20:59
|
|
|
Arkane posted:Rubio coming in a strong second would be very good, for me. Oh no, I'm opposite Arkane 
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 21:10
|
|
|
a cop posted:Everyone post your hot picks....I need to make back my losses from blindly following arkane! (which is usually a sound strategy) ((and could still turn out to be good but I panicked)) Oklahoma. Bet on Bernie in Oklahoma.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 21:19
|
|
|
I have a small (for me, large for most of you) bet on SC.Cruz.2nd and think I'm on the right side, but the odds have become more fair. At this point I think the best value is to take anything above 5% on a Trump SC win although it should be closer than it appears.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 21:28
|
|
|
G-Hawk posted:Oklahoma. Bet on Bernie in Oklahoma.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 21:48
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Woah there. Why? Looks like a consistent Clinton lead there since time immemorial. http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...pport.html#more clinton 46 bernie 44 (and the crosstabs look even better for Bernie, plus the poll probably isn't white enough) https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/post-politics/wp/2016/02/17/why-oklahoma-could-be-a-super-tuesday-surprise-for-sanders/ I got in earlier at 23 cents but its still way undervalued, it should be around 50/50 if not leaning Bernie
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 21:59
|
|
|
Adar posted:I have a small (for me, large for most of you) bet on SC.Cruz.2nd and think I'm on the right side, but the odds have become more fair. At this point I think the best value is to take anything above 5% on a Trump SC win although it should be closer than it appears. I just bought some at 40 cents. First time I bought Cruz in that market. Not enough to destroy me if it doesn't happen. The wind does seem to be at Rubio's back but wouldn't call him a favorite yet. Cruz has been organizing here for months and there are lots of evangelicals. I think he pulls this one out.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 22:00
|
|
|
|
| # ? Jun 4, 2024 00:42 |
|
|
evilweasel posted:Where did you see that Obama would make a choice that quickly? Historically it takes a few weeks to do the really in-depth review of candidates to find any skeletons in the closet. Fever dream, I guess! I swear I read a BBC report that said exactly that. I remember where I was when I read it and everything. I can't find it now and they have better ethics than to just delete something that turned out not to be true.
|
|
#
?
Feb 17, 2016 22:13
|
|
