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G-Hawk posted:http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/...pport.html#more Agreed. OK actually fits Bernie's demographic profile, including outperforming with rural whites. PPP confirms it's close, and PPP has had a heavy Clinton bias in NH and IA. OK is also an open primary, but only for the Democrats.
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Feb 17, 2016 22:18
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Adar posted:small (for me, large for most of you) bet not so humble brag
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Feb 17, 2016 22:32
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Peachstapler posted:Woah there. Why? Looks like a consistent Clinton lead there since time immemorial. 538 lists it as something of a tossup. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bernie-sanderss-path-to-the-nomination That said, OK is not very juicy on PredictIt, you'll pay some 40c for a Bernie Yes now. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 22:41 on Feb 17, 2016 |
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Feb 17, 2016 22:39
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Concerned Citizen posted:Agreed. OK actually fits Bernie's demographic profile, including outperforming with rural whites. PPP confirms it's close, and PPP has had a heavy Clinton bias in NH and IA. Edit: The flip side buy imo is Colorado, where Bernie is hilariously overvalued. Voter registration there ended January 4th and it is a closed primary. All those unaffiliated students aren't voting if they didn't register in December.
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Feb 17, 2016 22:42
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Vox Nihili posted:That said, OK is not very juicy on PredictIt, you'll pay some 40c for a Bernie Yes now. It went up 12¢ today. Would have been a better buy before the latest poll. Hillary NO is 4¢ cheaper than Bernie YES, as of this writing.
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Feb 17, 2016 22:44
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railroad terror posted:You're absolutely right ---plus, there's another guy offering 5000+ shares above me for 99 already. Might take a few days to actually unload this stuff. I'm better off just taking the 98. It looks like you probably could have gotten 99, but you still did the right thing. It just takes one really weird poll to throw everything in turmoil and I almost always leave the last couple cents on the table when I'm up. It was a great buy that I got in on too based on your suggestion.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:02
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BOOM Trump at 26 in new national poll. NBC/WSJ Cruz 28% (+8) Trump 26% (-7) Rubio 17% (+4) Kasich 11% (+8) Carson 10% (-2) Bush 4% (-1)
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Feb 17, 2016 23:05
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Arkane posted:BOOM LMAO FFFFFUUUUCCKKKKK
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Feb 17, 2016 23:08
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im seriously loving dying lol I could have just waited a few hours and been fine
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Feb 17, 2016 23:13
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http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/articles/2016-02-17/trump-dominates-in-bloomberg-poll-before-south-carolina-primary Selzer SC poll. 36/17/15/13 Trump/Cruz/Rubio/Jeb!
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Feb 17, 2016 23:14
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gently caress it, I'm going in whole hog on Cruz for 2nd in SC. Papa need to make back that trump money. I don't give a gently caress!!! (ok so I'm actually only betting so much that I'll break 100% even on PI if I lose)
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Feb 17, 2016 23:17
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Arkane posted:BOOM Holy poo poo, where the gently caress did this come from?
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Feb 17, 2016 23:19
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I bet YES on Carson dropping out before Super Tuesday. Not sure if I should bet on Jeb! dropping out YES or NO
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Feb 17, 2016 23:20
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I'm sitting out risky poo poo right now, which is a lot. I have everything on Trump in SC. Marginal gains oh yeah.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:21
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Arkane posted:BOOM In on Cruz at 15, Out at 20 
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Feb 17, 2016 23:22
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Omi-Polari posted:I'm sitting out risky poo poo right now, which is a lot. I have everything on Trump in SC. Marginal gains oh yeah. what if he loses?
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Feb 17, 2016 23:23
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Arkane posted:what if he loses? The universe will explode. Additionally, man, I really should have loving stuck to my creed of "Always bet on Arkane", I'd be sittin' pretty on some nice trump poll gains right about now. Fuuuuuck. I really hope you're wrong about Rubio placing 2nd in SC..I just feel like the religious bloc is too underrepresented and reliable.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:24
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The Fiorina dropout bloodbath all over again.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:26
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Definitely glad I sold Trump 35% earlier, I'm happy. Although that seems to be more the outlier, I guess it doesn't matter. Will be interesting to see if there are further corroborating polls.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:27
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Oh hey folks just so you know, RCP dropped the 21% - Trump's average just climbed to 33.3% with the inclusion of that 26% number. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/us/2016_republican_presidential_nomination-3823.html Maybe I shouldn't have gotten out after all...guess we'll see.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:31
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We have two weeks to go where Trump is going to crush SC and NV. The Trump 35 market will resolve Yes.
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Feb 17, 2016 23:51
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The Real Paddy posted:Oh hey folks just so you know, RCP dropped the 21% - Trump's average just climbed to 33.3% with the inclusion of that 26% number. The next ones rolling off are 35 and 39. Polls is polls, so it's still up in the air. Cruz is actually making him look a little weak right now with the lawsuit threat, but Trump is Trump.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:09
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Gyges posted:The next ones rolling off are 35 and 39. Polls is polls, so it's still up in the air. Cruz is actually making him look a little weak right now with the lawsuit threat, but Trump is Trump. Ahh, is it always an average of three? Good to know.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:20
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Is anyone else going whole-hog on Cruz for 2nd? (or rubio NOT for 2nd, same thing) ???
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Feb 18, 2016 00:23
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a cop posted:Is anyone else going whole-hog on Cruz for 2nd? (or rubio NOT for 2nd, same thing) ??? I had money there initially, but it's been a crazy week. Rubio's risen enough to tie him. It's a big risk.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:26
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a cop posted:Is anyone else going whole-hog on Cruz for 2nd? (or rubio NOT for 2nd, same thing) ??? I have Rubio second, but not maxed out. I'll probably live trade that one as results come in. A bit too risky to take a side right now.
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Feb 18, 2016 00:29
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I have a bunch in both Rubio.2nd.No and Cruz.3rd.No. Both have lost a ton of value in the last 24 hours. I'll probably stay in, not completely sure yet though. Edit: I'll probably cut my losses tomorrow, once the swing from the new polls and Haley endorsement swings back a little bit. Corrupt Politician has issued a correction as of 00:33 on Feb 18, 2016 |
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Feb 18, 2016 00:30
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watwat posted:I have Rubio second, but not maxed out. I'll probably live trade that one as results come in. A bit too risky to take a side right now. Yeah for sure. I'll have my finger on the button..
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Feb 18, 2016 00:31
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watwat posted:We have two weeks to go where Trump is going to crush SC and NV. The Trump 35 market will resolve Yes. It could resolve either way based on essentially arbitrary factors! Have fun!
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Feb 18, 2016 00:48
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seriously what is with that nbc poll?
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Feb 18, 2016 00:55
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Arkane posted:BOOM What do you think, outlier or post-debate drop? I kinda feel 70/30?
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Feb 18, 2016 00:58
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Adar posted:What do you think, outlier or post-debate drop? I kinda feel 70/30? Outlier. Very different results from overlapping polls. http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2016-national-gop-primary
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Feb 18, 2016 01:00
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High risk high reward: the Dem Nevada market is mispriced. Both sites have it 45/55 or slightly worse for Sanders based almost entirely on a one point poll. Hillary just added a Sunday campaign stop in LV in the middle of a NY/CA fundraising tour while Sanders has been all over the place. The events page for Hillary for an LV zip code is full of random phonebanking sites while Bernie has over a dozen genuine events. I think this is a tossup to a slight Sanders edge and am buying heavily at what I think is probably a 25% ROI.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:07
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Adar posted:What do you think, outlier or post-debate drop? I kinda feel 70/30? Don't know, but it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:12
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Arkane posted:Don't know, but it could be a self-fulfilling prophecy. Agreed. Q is how much airplay the media give Cruzmentum this week.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:22
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I'm keeping my bets as they are: Trump, Cruz, then Rubio. Even if I'm wrong on Cruz and Rubio my Trump bet should result in an overall net profit.The Real Paddy posted:Ahh, is it always an average of three? Good to know. No, it's an average of whatever number of polls RCP decided to keep. However as they get new polls they are more likely to drop older polls. The fact that the two of the three that meet the criteria for the market to resolve YES are also the oldest ones means they will be dropped if RCP gets enough new polls in. Which is an X factor that you can't really guess at because polls will just drop out of nowhere or be dropped later than expected. Always remember that you're not betting based on RCP's general practices, but rather whether or not they update and how they update on the day the market ends. There have been several polls markets that would have resolved one way, but RCP didn't actually update until the next day, so the market resolved opposite to the polls. The comments in the polls markets are great when this happens as people curse RCP and decry the "bullshit" of them losing money. There's a very good reason that a mantra of this thread is DON'T BET ON POLLS. Adar posted:Agreed. Q is how much airplay the media give Cruzmentum this week. It's going to be inversely tied to how much the media covers Robomentum. If Rubio looks like he's finally putting away JEB! and Kaisich then he's probably going to be getting most of the coverage. The greatest trick the devil ever pulled is if JEB! manages to look like he could pull 3rd and Cruz successfully calls Trump on this lawsuit bullshit. Gyges has issued a correction as of 01:33 on Feb 18, 2016 |
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Feb 18, 2016 01:25
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Adar posted:High risk high reward: the Dem Nevada market is mispriced. Both sites have it 45/55 or slightly worse for Sanders based almost entirely on a one point poll. Hillary just added a Sunday campaign stop in LV in the middle of a NY/CA fundraising tour while Sanders has been all over the place. The events page for Hillary for an LV zip code is full of random phonebanking sites while Bernie has over a dozen genuine events. I think this is a tossup to a slight Sanders edge and am buying heavily at what I think is probably a 25% ROI. I agree. Also, Sanders outperformed his polls in IA and NH. If anything this caucus might be even more amenable to young Sanders voters' enthusiasim since it's on a weekend.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:34
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The Real Paddy posted:I think he's done for, but the number seems high in respect to the timing. I guess maybe he'll act out of concern for his dignity, but he hasn't so far. BUSH.DROPOUT.022916 YES is currently at .40 fyi, compared to .69 earlier in the day. If you think he's dropping out now's the time to jump in.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:39
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I looked back on past NBC/WSJ polls and they all have low numbers for Trump, they must be weighing their sample differently than everyone else.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:40
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If Betfair had a dropout market I would buy the hell out of that. At 40c that is easily a max out. It might still be one at 69 for that matter.
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Feb 18, 2016 01:41
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