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Yoshifan823
Feb 19, 2007

by FactsAreUseless

Fiorina said the exact same thing.

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i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

a cop posted:

Link to this market? It isn't showing up by searching for blowout or nevada. Predictit kind of has a lovely interface.

I was being flippant with the title, but PI was too, calling it "Cakewalk" in the login screen. Search for "nevada", but I don't know if closed markets show up. The last trade was made at $.78.

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Yoshifan823 posted:

Fiorina said the exact same thing.
That's my hope.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Gyges posted:

Unless Marco and John drop dead by Monday, I'm not seeing any reason anyone would buy Romney YES shares now.

Multi-vote convention. If Trump is within ratfuck range in delegate count, RomneyNOM will jump to .05 easily, book it.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Aliquid posted:

Multi-vote convention. If Trump is within ratfuck range in delegate count, RomneyNOM will jump to .05 easily, book it.

The race is going to have to change dramaticaly very very soon to prevent him from getting an outright delegate majority.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Shear Modulus posted:

The race is going to have to change dramaticaly very very soon to prevent him from getting an outright delegate majority.

That's why I'm worried about holding onto literally 2% of the shares in the RomneyNOM market. Thankfully the "baseline" of Romney is between .01 and .02 and I can liquidate them all at .01 in about an hour, at-cost.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Trump is now beyond a 20% margin win in NV. At $.72 for the nom. Jesus.

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy
Just bought 29 more shares of Carson dropping out for five bucks. I'm really feeling it!

It's not even about the money for me, it's about being right.

Concerned Citizen
Jul 22, 2007
Ramrod XTreme
Guys, really, Ben Carson is literally an insane man. You're betting on whether a guy who has a painting of himself with Jesus on a wall is going to stop running for President. You can't apply logic to this.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

I will not ever gently caress with a Carson market. Ganbatte.

Zeta Taskforce
Jun 27, 2002

Aliquid posted:



Plus another 1000 shares below that 15k set. Ugh, these better sell before Super Tuesday or else I'm probably stuck with them.

Wait in line



I do think that the ship has sailed on the Romney penny flips. It has already sailed on the Paul Ryan penny flips

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

Concerned Citizen posted:

Guys, really, Ben Carson is literally an insane man. You're betting on whether a guy who has a painting of himself with Jesus on a wall is going to stop running for President. You can't apply logic to this.
The hell I can't.

Fuschia tude
Dec 26, 2004

THUNDERDOME LOSER 2019

Zeta Taskforce posted:

Wait in line



I do think that the ship has sailed on the Romney penny flips. It has already sailed on the Paul Ryan penny flips

Seriously, there was a time I could count on jumps up to 3, 5, even 8 cents every month or so. That time has passed.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005


you son of a bitch

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Fuschia tude posted:

Seriously, there was a time I could count on jumps up to 3, 5, even 8 cents every month or so. That time has passed.

That was in the fall when idiots still thought he would run. It's a different crowd when it's only the brokered convention people.

BrutalistMcDonalds
Oct 4, 2012


Lipstick Apathy

Zeta Taskforce posted:

I do think that the ship has sailed on the Romney penny flips. It has already sailed on the Paul Ryan penny flips
With Trump crushing it and Bernie set to bern out, the opportunities for wild surges on pennies is over methinks.

Riding day-to-day minor market fluctuations and 90c sure win-marginal gains from here on out for me.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Omi-Polari posted:

With Trump crushing it and Bernie set to bern out, the opportunities for wild surges on pennies is over methinks.

Riding day-to-day minor market fluctuations and 90c sure win-marginal gains from here on out for me.

Super Tuesday is going to be full of under-traded markets. Things haven't calmed down yet, don't worry. Donald hasn't even received a single endorsement.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

So remind me again, why do people think that Carson will drop out before super tuesday? Even if he runs out of money, can't he just sit at home on his rear end without "dropping out" in order to keep his name out there and sell more books?

SpiderHyphenMan
Apr 1, 2010

by Fluffdaddy

a cop posted:

So remind me again, why do people think that Carson will drop out before super tuesday? Even if he runs out of money, can't he just sit at home on his rear end without "dropping out" in order to keep his name out there and sell more books?
Carson may be told that dropping out before Super Tuesday is conducive to his image as someone who isn't ruled by personal ambition or self-delusion

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

SpiderHyphenMan posted:

Carson may be told that dropping out before Super Tuesday is conducive to his image as someone who isn't ruled by personal ambition or self-delusion

Idk, I'd be more apt to believe that if he didn't beat Kasich tonight. I bought 100 shares because so many people here seem to be so sure that he's leaving but I'm still extremely skeptical. Basically just a $20 scratch-off in my mind.

e: Especially because, again, if anything he loves loving over Cruz. If it weren't for Carson Cruz likely would have taken 2nd in Nevada.

Trash Trick has issued a correction as of 08:48 on Feb 24, 2016

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer
Ted Cruz is pulling ahead of Rubio on NYT count

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009
Cruz is ahead of Rubio for this exact moment. If you're stuck with Cruz shares and want out, now's your chance.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

:eyepop: hooooly poo poo that's nuts, if someone bought in at 6c and held they could have made some crazy money.

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009
Okay. Just dumped my Cruz shares (went in the 20s out in the 40s, I had already kissed that money goodbye).

That's the right move, right? This is just a temp swing from the NE counties turning in at once, right?

I'm thinking of getting in on Rubio while he's "cheap."

Edit: And nevermind, wow that was a quick swing.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Parakeet vs. Phone posted:

Okay. Just dumped my Cruz shares (went in the 20s out in the 40s, I had already kissed that money goodbye).

That's the right move, right? This is just a temp swing from the NE counties turning in at once, right?

I'm thinking of getting in on Rubio while he's "cheap."

You made the right move taking your money and running. Even if Cruz ends up miraculously pulling away with it, it's not worth the risk. (saying that as someone who got ratfucked good by his loss in SC).

Rubio's probably still a safe but but I dunno man...

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Gyges posted:

Assuming my Rubio buy comes in, I'm making a $200 bet against Trump tomorrow. If Trump doesn't get stumped in Nevada, we're in for a gilded primary the likes of which no living soul has ever seen.

RIP.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Parakeet vs. Phone posted:

Okay. Just dumped my Cruz shares (went in the 20s out in the 40s, I had already kissed that money goodbye).

That's the right move, right? This is just a temp swing from the NE counties turning in at once, right?

I'm thinking of getting in on Rubio while he's "cheap."

Edit: And nevermind, wow that was a quick swing.

Cruz is up again but to reiterate, look at the Clark County proportions and % reported. No loving way in hell Cruz pulls this out, and even if he does, it would be such a miracle long shot that it's not worth the risk unless you have a ton of $$ to play with.

JosefStalinator
Oct 9, 2007

Come Tbilisi if you want to live.




Grimey Drawer

Gyges posted:

Assuming my Rubio buy comes in, I'm making a $200 bet against Trump tomorrow. If Trump doesn't get stumped in Nevada, we're in for a gilded primary the likes of which no living soul has ever seen.

JosefStalinator posted:

It is our duty to inform you that this is a bad idea.

(Feel free to quote this post tomorrow when you make hundreds of dollars in proving me wrong!)

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib

a cop posted:

Cruz is up again but to reiterate, look at the Clark County proportions and % reported. No loving way in hell Cruz pulls this out, and even if he does, it would be such a miracle long shot that it's not worth the risk unless you have a ton of $$ to play with.

Only Clark (at 25% reporting so far) and Washoe (at like 65% or something) are left, and rubio beats cruz pretty handily in both. Wish I hadn't already put so much in at 80-90c

edit: oops and some of the small counties like lyon and lander... seem insignificant though, unless Clark and Washoe margins shift pretty wildly

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009

a cop posted:

Cruz is up again but to reiterate, look at the Clark County proportions and % reported. No loving way in hell Cruz pulls this out, and even if he does, it would be such a miracle long shot that it's not worth the risk unless you have a ton of $$ to play with.

Yeah, I'm just happy I got out at an okay profit. Playing around with some flips at the moment since it's so volatile, but probably going to buy in on Rubio 2nd and hold at some point (if it gets cheap enough, the gap is closing slightly in Clark so I'm slightly nervous about betting hard on Rubio).

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Just sold all my NV.TRUMP @ 99c and dumped it into NV.RUBIO.2nd @ .80

The predictit markets are so short sighted sometimes it's crazy. Time to go to bed and wake up to some easy gains. (or the most hilarious double ratfuck in history)

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Hillary fell again in CO for some reason. Buy the poo poo out of Clinton YES.

Parakeet vs. Phone
Nov 6, 2009

a cop posted:

Just sold all my NV.TRUMP @ 99c and dumped it into NV.RUBIO.2nd @ .80

The predictit markets are so short sighted sometimes it's crazy. Time to go to bed and wake up to some easy gains. (or the most hilarious double ratfuck in history)

If you got in, you can probably just sell them now. Market's flipping back to Rubio.

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Parakeet vs. Phone posted:

If you got in, you can probably just sell them now. Market's flipping back to Rubio.

Kinda, it's people putting in small orders at high numbers to make it look over-valued I think. I'm all but certain Rubio's taking second, I'm gonna sleep soundly knowing that I'll wake up to those 99c shares in the morning (or, again, get ratfucked into oblivion which will be so funny I don't even mind)

It would just be insane if Clark County were to flip for Cruz at this point with the sample we've seen thusfar.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

a cop posted:

Just sold all my NV.TRUMP @ 99c and dumped it into NV.RUBIO.2nd @ .80

The predictit markets are so short sighted sometimes it's crazy. Time to go to bed and wake up to some easy gains. (or the most hilarious double ratfuck in history)

Nice pickup dude, drat.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

just taken from NV 2nd

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Vox Nihili posted:

Nice pickup dude, drat.

Still down overall after motherfucker Cruz lost SC 2nd but I'm clawing my way back...

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

After my Iowa Shoah, I'm clawing back. Here's me atm:

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Clawing back is an appropriate metaphor for recouping gambling losses

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thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib

a cop posted:

Just sold all my NV.TRUMP @ 99c and dumped it into NV.RUBIO.2nd @ .80

The predictit markets are so short sighted sometimes it's crazy. Time to go to bed and wake up to some easy gains. (or the most hilarious double ratfuck in history)

:hfive:

Some PI Comment posted:

Thank god for the people who cant do simple extrapolation.

e; deleting all this if clark somehow flips in the last 20%

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