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Otteration
Jan 4, 2014

I CAN'T SAY PRESIDENT DONALD JOHN TRUMP'S NAME BECAUSE HE'S LIKE THAT GUY FROM HARRY POTTER AND I'M AFRAID I'LL SUMMON HIM. DONALD JOHN TRUMP. YOUR FAVORITE PRESIDENT.
OUR 47TH PRESIDENT AFTER THE ONE WHO SHOWERS WITH HIS DAUGHTER DIES
Grimey Drawer

Joementum posted:

If the members of one party are dissatisfied with how things are being run, they can volunteer and organize to change things. All those precincts tonight are being run by volunteers. If the Republicans of Nevada think they can do better, they're free to do so. In fact, that's the first order of business at each caucus precinct: electing the precinct chair. The party system is highly permeable.

Yep, and if we get BIG GOVERNMENT involved in our party organization then we get the other party involved in our party organization (you get to pick which is "our" and which is the "other" party).

And BIG GOVERNMENT could mean could mean the four Darryls one Darline (plus Sheriff Cecil on the sidelines) who control the county board.

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Rhesus Pieces
Jun 27, 2005

https://twitter.com/ryanjreilly/status/702371374246055937

Your prohibitive GOP nominee, everyone.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

I'm never that confident because I will forever remember, as a kid, my parents being gleeful they'd picked that 'idiot' George W. Bush and how the GOP was doomed now.

Meg From Family Guy
Feb 4, 2012

Night10194 posted:

I'm never that confident because I will forever remember, as a kid, my parents being gleeful they'd picked that 'idiot' George W. Bush and how the GOP was doomed now.

They weren't wrong

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



I mean, to be fair, W was an idiot who a majority of Americans voted against

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Night10194 posted:

I'm never that confident because I will forever remember, as a kid, my parents being gleeful they'd picked that 'idiot' George W. Bush and how the GOP was doomed now.

W was the governor of Texas who had a major political dynasty at his beck and call with the entire GOP united behind him early on. Even so, he'd have lost if Gore had played his cards better and SCOTUS hadn't come charging to his rescue.

Trump will be crushed. If he's seriously the nominee then we should concentrate on wrapping up the Dem nomination as early as possible and start talking about downticket races.

Northjayhawk
Mar 8, 2008

by exmarx

Freezer posted:

I work in renewables(wind), and will likely be losing my job if Trump wins as he holds a massive grudge against the industry. These developments are pretty unsettling to say the least.

Donald Trump is completely loving unelectable in a national general election.

Mr. Nice!
Oct 13, 2005

bone shaking.
soul baking.

Northjayhawk posted:

Donald Trump is completely loving unelectable in a national general election.

He's still the presumptive republican nominee.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug

Mr. Nice! posted:

He's still the presumptive republican nominee.
He's been destined and preordained to lead the GOP right into their grave for months now, at least.

furiouskoala
Aug 4, 2007

Northjayhawk posted:

Donald Trump is completely loving unelectable in a national general election.

He can win. Turnout for GOP primaries has been huge, and Bernie guys, more than a few of them will be demotivated and not vote in the general if Hilary gets it. Not saying it is probable, but I would give Trump at least a 25% chance of becoming president.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

Samurai Sanders posted:

He's been destined and preordained to lead the GOP right into their grave for months now, at least.

I honestly thought that he would fade and Rubio would catch fire. Guess not.

Meg From Family Guy
Feb 4, 2012

furiouskoala posted:

He can win. Turnout for GOP primaries has been huge, and Bernie guys, more than a few of them will be demotivated and not vote in the general if Hilary gets it. Not saying it is probable, but I would give Trump at least a 25% chance of becoming president.

A dead body has 25% chance of becoming president against any democrat

Northjayhawk
Mar 8, 2008

by exmarx

furiouskoala posted:

He can win. Turnout for GOP primaries has been huge, and Bernie guys, more than a few of them will be demotivated and not vote in the general if Hilary gets it. Not saying it is probable, but I would give Trump at least a 25% chance of becoming president.

I would move the decimal point over and call it a 2.5%, just to account for weird scenarios like proof that Hillary cheated on Bill, or a felony indictment, and that might still be very high.

A lot of political nerds (yes, I'm one of them), especially in Trump's corner but even among the left, have lost some perspective here. This is a man who hosted that often-mocked clownshow "The Apprentice", and is terrifying Latinos into voting. Not everyone worships at his altar, when people who don't vote in primaries start paying attention, if he's the nominee Trump is going to get wrecked.

Northjayhawk fucked around with this message at 07:28 on Feb 24, 2016

Raskolnikov38
Mar 3, 2007

We were somewhere around Manila when the drugs began to take hold

Northjayhawk posted:

I've just now flipped to thinking Trump is more likely than not to be the nominee.

We could be witnessing the beginning of one of the most massive, epic electoral rear end-kickings the GOP has ever suffered.

We could also be witnessing the beginning of the American Hitler fwiw.

Night10194
Feb 13, 2012

We'll start,
like many good things,
with a bear.

Trump's supporters weren't supposed to 'actually' come out and vote, and at every turn the conventional wisdom seems to have turned out incorrect.

Like, I don't *think* he can win, but I can't help a nagging feeling it won't be as easy as people think. And even a 2.5% chance of electing a guy who wants to ban ethnicities and supports protesters getting beaten up at his rallies isn't good.

Also, Trump's more Mussolini.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
God help me, I want to watch every single one of his campaign commercials. I might have a viewing party.

Meg From Family Guy
Feb 4, 2012

Raskolnikov38 posted:

We could also be witnessing the beginning of the American Hitler fwiw.

mexican isnt a religion

dont be mean to me
May 2, 2007

I'm interplanetary, bitch
Let's go to Mars


Hypothetically, how much of the Bernout cohort could be retained if Clinton named Sanders her VP?

Raskolnikov38 posted:

We could also be witnessing the beginning of the American Hitler fwiw.

That's uncalled for.

Hitler had better hair.

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop

Meg From Family Guy posted:

A dead body has 25% chance of becoming president against any democrat

You can post all the numbers and figures about voting groups, if it's Hillary v Trump, I don't see Hillary beating Trump. Compared to Trump she's like a dying fish on stage at debates or town halls.

Northjayhawk
Mar 8, 2008

by exmarx

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

You can post all the numbers and figures about voting groups, if it's Hillary v Trump, I don't see Hillary beating Trump. Compared to Trump she's like a dying fish on stage at debates or town halls.

*I* could beat Donald Trump. Literally me, a random goon who no one has ever heard of, relying solely on free media coverage, as long as its just two choices, me or the Donald, I would be elected president.

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

You can post all the numbers and figures about voting groups, if it's Hillary v Trump, I don't see Hillary beating Trump. Compared to Trump she's like a dying fish on stage at debates or town halls.

But Hillary is actually good at debates. :confused:

bird food bathtub
Aug 9, 2003

College Slice
I'm a pretty pessimistic person to begin with so take it with a grain of salt but I'll be on eggshells the whole time until Trump actually loses the general election. One good no-poo poo market crash or a french-style coordinated terror attack at the wrong time and the screaming, bigoted, angry-xenophobe crazy vote will look really god drat appealing to a whole lot more Americans and then welp, embrace the yoogest and most luxurious...I dunno fascism, rebranded neo-nazi, antagonistic isolationist? What the gently caress IS Trump?

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop

Northjayhawk posted:

*I* could beat Donald Trump. Literally me, a random goon who no one has ever heard of, relying solely on free media coverage, as long as its just two choices, me or the Donald, I would be elected president.

Remember when USPol goons thought he wouldn't even enter the race? Ok, so he entered the race, but USPol goons knew he'd never release his financials. Ok, so he released his financials, but he's a joke and would never poll better than other candidates. Ok, so he's polling better but he's not going to pick up states. Ok, so he's picking up states but he's not going to pick up other candidates demographics. Ok, so he's getting those demographics...

Yeah, USPol has proven it doesn't know poo poo.

PhazonLink
Jul 17, 2010

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

You can post all the numbers and figures about voting groups, if it's Hillary v Trump, I don't see Hillary beating Trump. Compared to Trump she's like a dying fish on stage at debates or town halls.

Did you forget the 11 hour "Mr. Ben Ghazi" hearing?

Also Trump only looks big when he's in control. Obama ripped him a new one during the White House dinner and Trump made Comedy Central have "off limit" topics for his roast.

All wingnut bullies only come out to play when they have a "safe zones".

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

SumYungGui posted:

I'm a pretty pessimistic person to begin with so take it with a grain of salt but I'll be on eggshells the whole time until Trump actually loses the general election. One good no-poo poo market crash or a french-style coordinated terror attack at the wrong time and the screaming, bigoted, angry-xenophobe crazy vote will look really god drat appealing to a whole lot more Americans and then welp, embrace the yoogest and most luxurious...I dunno fascism, rebranded neo-nazi, antagonistic isolationist? What the gently caress IS Trump?

Trump is life. Trump is death.

BetterToRuleInHell
Jul 2, 2007

Touch my mask top
Get the chop chop

Zeroisanumber posted:

But Hillary is actually good at debates. :confused:

Man, voters are loving stupid. She's not Obama when it comes to wooing crowds and people eat Trump's poo poo up.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx
We'll see how much of a fool Trump looks like debating her. Or how much of a bully Fox/CNN says she is to him.

Jonas Albrecht
Jun 7, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 8 hours!
Will Fox continue to be Anti-Trump in the general?

Zeroisanumber
Oct 23, 2010

Nap Ghost
If Trump's the nom, Hillary could come out and sock him with a golf club and the press would call it a measured and presidential response.

Jonas Albrecht posted:

Will Fox continue to be Anti-Trump in the general?

I honestly don't think that they even know how they'll cover him.

Islam is the Lite Rock FM
Jul 27, 2007

by exmarx

Zeroisanumber posted:

If Trump's the nom, Hillary could come out and sock him with a golf club and the press would call it a measured and presidential response.


I honestly don't think that they even know how they'll cover him.

Tough on Putin!

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

BetterToRuleInHell posted:

Remember when USPol goons thought he wouldn't even enter the race? Ok, so he entered the race, but USPol goons knew he'd never release his financials. Ok, so he released his financials, but he's a joke and would never poll better than other candidates. Ok, so he's polling better but he's not going to pick up states. Ok, so he's picking up states but he's not going to pick up other candidates demographics. Ok, so he's getting those demographics...

Yeah, USPol has proven it doesn't know poo poo.

And currently, USPol thinks Trump's going to win the election.

Oh poo poo wait

Boon
Jun 21, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Remember when HuffPo only covered Trump in the entertainment section?

Lol.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Northjayhawk posted:

Donald Trump is completely loving unelectable in a national general election.

Do you have evidence of this?

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Jonas Albrecht posted:

Will Fox continue to be Anti-Trump in the general?

They have accepted the inevitable.

Jonas Albrecht
Jun 7, 2012
Probation
Can't post for 8 hours!

Huh. I figured the biggest bag of poo poo at Fox would have been a Cruz supporter.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July
Other readings from the exit polling:

Women and Hispanics prefer Trump to the other Republicans by similar margins to the general public. 45% and 44% respectively.

computer parts
Nov 18, 2010

PLEASE CLAP

Reminder that there were only like 140 Hispanics in the entire Nevada caucus.

Samurai Sanders
Nov 4, 2003

Pillbug
It's like no one actually cares about the lexical content of any of the words he says, just the way he is saying them.

ComradeCosmobot
Dec 4, 2004

USPOL July

Samurai Sanders posted:

It's like no one actually cares about the lexical content of any of the words he says, just the way he is saying them.

Correct. As has been noted here and elsewhere, nearly 2/3 of Republican caucus voters want an outsider who will clean house with those despicable career politicians.

EDIT: I think D&D will be surprised to find the Overton Window moving faster in the next 6 months than it ever has before. If Trump is the nominee, the media WILL make him a viable candidate, because it needs a viable candidate and needs ad dollars from people who think he's a viable candidate.

ComradeCosmobot fucked around with this message at 08:07 on Feb 24, 2016

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Nichael
Mar 30, 2011


ComradeCosmobot posted:

Correct. As has been noted here and elsewhere, nearly 2/3 of Republican caucus voters want an outsider who will clean house with those despicable career politicians.

EDIT: I think D&D will be surprised to find the Overton Window moving faster in the next 6 months than it ever has before. If Trump is the nominee, the media WILL make him a viable candidate, because it needs a viable candidate and needs ad dollars from people who think he's a viable candidate.

Yup! This already happened months ago, for the most part, and the process of legitimizing him will just continue at a rapid and accelerated pace. They will push the truth is in the center narrative to illogical new depths.

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