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Watching the party mobilize against Trump six days out from Super Tuesday is a goddamn laugh riot. Seriously, these idiots had no idea this was coming?
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Feb 25, 2016 05:21
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:What you say might have been true if it wasn't for the fact that 1-2 supreme court justices are in play and that this election will be against Clinton. No way in gently caress they throw it. "Trump will nominate judges as bad or worse than Clinton would" - an argument literally being used by the 'conservative smart set' to justify anywhere from sitting out the race to voting third party to breaking ranks and actively helping Hillary
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Feb 25, 2016 05:21
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Montasque posted:Watching the party mobilize against Trump six days out from Super Tuesday is a goddamn laugh riot. Seriously, these idiots had no idea this was coming? While I don't want to pick on forums poster Mitt Romney, as I think he's a very informed and savvy individual, look at his posts coming out of Iowa, and, hell, my own. Trump gets stumped slightly in Iowa, I think most people felt he would never actually win a race.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:23
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Montasque posted:Watching the party mobilize against Trump six days out from Super Tuesday is a goddamn laugh riot. Seriously, these idiots had no idea this was coming? did you not hear everyone in the media harp endlessly about Trump's ceiling for the last two months, they genuinely thought he would stall out at 25-30% and they could unite around someone more palatable
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Feb 25, 2016 05:23
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The ridges of the top of rubios ears are almost as gross as his gaint earlobes.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:24
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CubsWoo posted:did you not hear everyone in the media harp endlessly about Trump's ceiling for the last two months, they genuinely thought he would stall out at 25-30% and they could unite around someone more palatable they still do 
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Feb 25, 2016 05:24
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https://twitter.com/BenHowe/status/702696451474890752
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Feb 25, 2016 05:24
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CubsWoo posted:He already did this in Iowa when this same PAC did robocalls in Iowa with Jared Taylor But the attack can be bigger than just the robocalls. "Why is Donald Trump actively courting and coordinating support from vocal White Supremacists, some who have links to (anything can be links to) groups that have been classified as hate groups by the SPLC?" The WN forums are supporting him over any other candidate by far. OnTwitter, not to mention Trumps highly questionable retweets. "Racist" is one thing, but "White Supremacist" is a whole other level of accusation.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:25
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Schnorkles posted:While I don't want to pick on forums poster Mitt Romney, as I think he's a very informed and savvy individual, look at his posts coming out of Iowa, and, hell, my own. CubsWoo posted:did you not hear everyone in the media harp endlessly about Trump's ceiling for the last two months, they genuinely thought he would stall out at 25-30% and they could unite around someone more palatable I too thought Trump was stumped post Iowa, but after NH I would think they would have doubled their efforts.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:27
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Schnorkles posted:Trump as a top of a ticket has all sorts of wild variables that will be really cool to see if it happens. My gut feeling is that the nature of presidential races in the modern era means that Trump isn't routed in some massive landslide but tends to lose in a very 2012 Romeny-esque fashion. when i put on my optimistic democrat/this time isn't different hat i assume this as well, i think there'd be a lot of right-wing third parties getting record votes from people who can't bring themselves to support hillary as far as congress goes, it'll be complicated. even aside from trump, the blue state republican senators will have the scotus thing hanging over their head, either from the right for allowing obama to put a communist nazi on the court or from the good-government crowd for setting modern records in judicial nomination obstinacy. that's a lose-lose for them, i think the funny thing about the republican districts in the northeast, populated by almost the last americans who reliably split their tickets (D pres, R congress, in this case), is that you'd normally think a losing republican candidate would gently caress over those republicans, but trump actually does pretty well among northeastern republicans so blue-state republican congresspeople will have a tough situation, assuming the general electorate isn't identical to the republican primary electorate in which case dehumanize face to trump etc. on the one hand the majority of their voters will (in this scenario) be anti-trump, but on the other hand their republican base will be demographically some of the most pro-trump republicans in the country. which way do you go on that?
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Feb 25, 2016 05:27
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Barudak posted:Isn't his campaign apparatus primarily "People who are fired up to vote in the primary are fired up to vote for me" and "I am the pied piper of the media's attention"? Or has there been revelations of his heavy investing in local states, because at my last understanding he was if anything understaffed compared to other campaigns. I wouldn't be so dismissive. Post-SC there was an article talking about how Trump built a pretty impressive campaign on the ground there, how he had hired some local people with experience running statewide campaigns, and simply never talked about it. The rallies did a great job of pipelining volunteers and donations into those organizers, and they built a pretty grassroots organization around it. I wouldn't be surprised at all if he had something similar in NV. I also wouldn't be terribly surprised if he deliberately was flying under the radar in terms of publicizing this stuff, to the point of leaking or letting his IA game seem weak, to gain an edge.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:27
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I am able to do and say whatever I want. Nothing matters, believe me.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:28
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Schnorkles posted:While I don't want to pick on forums poster Mitt Romney, as I think he's a very informed and savvy individual, look at his posts coming out of Iowa, and, hell, my own. His Iowa performance was actually pretty impressive, ground game is probably more important in the Iowa caucus than anywhere else. Trump basically had none and Cruz spent months building an extremely solid campaign there, and he only beat Trump by a few points. As the evangelical darling candidate you basically have to win Iowa so Cruz put a lot of resources into winning there.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:29
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:What you say might have been true if it wasn't for the fact that 1-2 supreme court justices are in play and that this election will be against Clinton. No way in gently caress they throw it. Giving up the Supreme Court is probably a good trade for the GOP. They need to convince Mitch McConnel to allow a moderate judge through, and then they can spend four years using the specter of Hillary Clinton to mobilize the base. A GOP win in the presidential election by Trump, is suicidal in the long term for the party. The Democrats would probably make a clean sweep of 2020 and set themselves up for a decade of total control.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:29
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oystertoadfish posted:when i put on my optimistic democrat/this time isn't different hat i assume this as well, i think there'd be a lot of right-wing third parties getting record votes from people who can't bring themselves to support hillary You put together a good team, know your constituents, and try to craft a message to them in particular regardless of the top of the ticket. It's just that when every single republican is doing that and Donald Trump is trumpin' things get sort of difficult.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:30
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Montasque posted:I too thought Trump was stumped post Iowa, but after NH I would think they would have doubled their efforts. "He was going to win NH anyway, nothing to worry about, he'll probably win SC too so whatever" "Ok, he won SC, but not by as much as we thought, nothing to worry about, he can't win a caucus, IA proved that" "gently caress"
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Feb 25, 2016 05:30
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Romg thred
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Feb 25, 2016 05:30
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I guess my point is that it seems a lot more likely than not that Trump has managed to run a very good political operation while appearing not to, and it wasn't picked up on by people. The big flaw in my theory is that literally any of the other campaigns should have been able to notice this happening and be very concerned about it, and since they didn't respond it means they really are all morons or I'm wrong and Meme Emperor Trump really is coasting through on white supremacists and edgy /pol/ memes. I'm not sure which of these is less appealing.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:31
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breaklaw posted:But the attack can be bigger than just the robocalls. "Why is Donald Trump actively courting and coordinating support from vocal White Supremacists, some who have links to (anything can be links to) groups that have been classified as hate groups by the SPLC?" The WN forums are supporting him over any other candidate by far. OnTwitter, not to mention Trumps highly questionable retweets. "Racist" is one thing, but "White Supremacist" is a whole other level of accusation. there's plenty from the post's articles linked in the link you linked for future attack ads. i'm pretty sure david duke's in there, saying that trump is the best thing to happen to white supremacism since david duke and speaking of your 'links to' point, in black areas the democrats will tie dylann roof around trump's neck like a noose rubio is probably not going to get much mileage from this in the republican primary but we might get some insight on how this'll go in the future if he pushes the point
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Feb 25, 2016 05:31
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breaklaw posted:Huh. Now this, if it was played correctly, could wind up being an actual stump. Wonder if it's worth it for the establishment billionaires to funnel dark money to these groups instead of actual Rubio Super Pacs.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:32
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MaxxBot posted:His Iowa performance was actually pretty impressive, ground game is probably more important in the Iowa caucus than anywhere else. Trump basically had none and Cruz spent months building an extremely solid campaign there, and he only beat Trump by a few points. As the evangelical darling candidate you basically have to win Iowa so Cruz put a lot of resources into winning there. I actually agree with this. I made the point then that Trump turning out the number of votes he did was actually super impressive. It made me kind of question the thought of "Donald Trump will never win anything," but Rubio looked so impressive coming out of Iowa [I know, I know 3rd place and all that. But politics is a lot about expectations and momentum] I basically thought it was over. Then Rubio blue screened and Trump just got stronger.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:33
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CubsWoo posted:"Trump will nominate judges as bad or worse than Clinton would" - an argument literally being used by the 'conservative smart set' to justify anywhere from sitting out the race to voting third party to breaking ranks and actively helping Hillary Keep in mind that for a lot of these people the notion that trump could win was inconceivable until very recently. It's going to take some processing but in the end a lot will rationalize it away as always. I think.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:34
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The "Trump/his supporters are racists" line of attack was already baked into the cake 8 months ago when he first mention illegal immigrant Mexican rapists and murderers, an unaffiliated (remember, Trump has beat the drum since day 1 that he has no Super PACs) group making calls will be handwaved away with an admonishment the same way he got past his crowds shouting that Cruz is a pussy
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Feb 25, 2016 05:34
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Brannock posted:Why would that be a nightmare scenario? Trump has zero obligation to the party. He's not a politician. Losing would be a huge, massive blow to his ego, but it's not like it's going to end his career like it would Rubio or Cruz. It would end his political career, and one can only assume that a person who bothered to sacrifice dignity, privacy and relaxation to mount a serious bid for presidency wants political power and influence.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:35
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uncurable mlady posted:I guess my point is that it seems a lot more likely than not that Trump has managed to run a very good political operation while appearing not to, and it wasn't picked up on by people. Lewandowski knows what he's loving doing. Dude has a long and very lucrative career in front of him. He wasn't unknown coming into things, but he's not going to be doing state bullshit anymore.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:36
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CubsWoo posted:The "Trump/his supporters are racists" line of attack was already baked into the cake 8 months ago when he first mention illegal immigrant Mexican rapists and murderers, an unaffiliated (remember, Trump has beat the drum since day 1 that he has no Super PACs) group making calls will be handwaved away with an admonishment the same way he got past his crowds shouting that Cruz is a pussy The GOP base obviously doesn't care - hell, a lot of Americans probably don't care - but the white supremacist/racism angle will almost certainly hurt Trump in a general election scenario. Will it be fatal? Hard to say.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:36
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:Keep in mind that for a lot of these people the notion that trump could win was inconceivable until very recently. It's going to take some processing but in the end a lot will rationalize it away as always. I think. As an unironic Republican I think the farthest they will walk this back is a quiet vote for Trump in the booth and tamping down the shame they feel inside for betraying Lord Buckley. Only a few will do this, most of them are legitimately fuming that Trump is doing all of this The Wrong, Unapproved Way and has betrayed True Conservatism.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:37
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CubsWoo posted:The "Trump/his supporters are racists" line of attack was already baked into the cake 8 months ago when he first mention illegal immigrant Mexican rapists and murderers, an unaffiliated (remember, Trump has beat the drum since day 1 that he has no Super PACs) group making calls will be handwaved away with an admonishment the same way he got past his crowds shouting that Cruz is a pussy I mean, it's a hail mary whatever they do, but keeping actual white supremacists in the news as supporters seems like a decent strategy as Trump can't use that, 'i didn't call ALL Meixcans rapists' line as deflection. poo poo, even the MSM can score interviews with these people all the better. Do they have visible swastika tattoos? I can kinda see how Rubio can argue his case during a debate by claiming how Democrats always 'falsely' claimed Republicans are racist, but Trump is doing his best to prove them right.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:38
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Trump has taken all his cues from Howard Stern and covered his racist/sexist six by having a black-female national spokesperson. Get ready for minister of transportation Ronnie the Limo Driver.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:38
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Democrazy posted:It would end his political career, and one can only assume that a person who bothered to sacrifice dignity, privacy and relaxation to mount a serious bid for presidency wants political power and influence. I'm pretty sure he's well aware this is a one time shot.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:38
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I'm honestly not quite sure if the concept of an unironic Republican will survive this election cycle.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:38
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uncurable mlady posted:The GOP base obviously doesn't care - hell, a lot of Americans probably don't care - but the white supremacist/racism angle will almost certainly hurt Trump in a general election scenario. Will it be fatal? Hard to say. considering that the republican nominee needs to win between 25-30% plus a historic number of white voters to get the presidency I certainly wouldn't want to make bets on it.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:39
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Democrazy posted:It would end his political career, and one can only assume that a person who bothered to sacrifice dignity, privacy and relaxation to mount a serious bid for presidency wants political power and influence. "career" -- Trump isn't running for anything but POTUS. He's trying to add that accomplishment to his belt notches. If he can't get it he'll just move on to the next thing after moping for a while. He's bet it all on red.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:39
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interesting potential curveballs to think about on this winter night last year two delightful young men in my home city of boston beat the poo poo out of a homeless latino and proudly said they did it for trump when he heard about it, he stopped just short of praising them. "my supporters are passionate! they're fired up!" what are the odds that a trump supporter perpetuates a genuine, heinous act of violence after getting hepped up at a rally, then raves to the cops about how It Was All For Donald? what are the odds that a protester is badly injured at a trump rally? trump is aware of this risk-- people at his rallies are explicitly told beforehand not to harm protesters. he knows this is a possibility. i would be very happy if we made it to november with no paramilitary activity. i think the fact that pretty much everyone in the country turned against the yokel haram idiots in oregon is encouraging. i would like this to remain a country where we can disagree with each other, even angrily, without the threat of violence.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:40
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Hahah yes, cement the image of white supremacists as republicans, that's certainly a winning line of attack for the party.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:40
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uncurable mlady posted:I'm honestly not quite sure if the concept of an unironic Republican will survive this election cycle. Good.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:40
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Stern will be my FCC head.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:40
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uncurable mlady posted:The GOP base obviously doesn't care - hell, a lot of Americans probably don't care - but the white supremacist/racism angle will almost certainly hurt Trump in a general election scenario. Will it be fatal? Hard to say. In a general election scenario where Trump will be the high energy candidate running against a shambling corpse of corruption with one leg in an orange jumpsuit I don't see it hurting him anywhere near it would hurt literally any other candidate This is going to end up being a Nationalism vs. Globalism election and the guy essentially running on a platform of "Build wall, remove taco, also a lot of moderate positions regarding America's citizens" is going to have a puncher's chance of winning
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Feb 25, 2016 05:41
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Donald Trump posted:Stern will be my FCC head. i am so for that
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Feb 25, 2016 05:41
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Schnorkles posted:considering that the republican nominee needs to win between 25-30% plus a historic number of white voters to get the presidency I certainly wouldn't want to make bets on it. Who knows - I honestly expect Hillary to do better with whites overall than Obama did. A Trump candidacy might actually be a benefit to her, assuming it inspires a lot of protest voting against Trump. I'm not sure that I'd want to bet on that, either, though.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:42
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