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Edit: Kelly has e before y but not that close. It's as if Kelly is purposefully utilized to keep Trump away or spite against him Kindergarten Camp fucked around with this message at 05:08 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 04:45
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my question is when trump becomes the nominee do the big-money people and neocons 1) sigh and back him 2) just sit this one out 3) back hillary (lol) there are already signs of neocons aligning to hillary. trump has indicated that he wants to hike interest rates at the fed which makes me feel that the financial guys who mostly stay out of the spotlight-- the people worth 3-5x trump's net worth, even assuming he's not exaggerating it-- are going to be sweating. this election is fascinating. it looks like donald trump will become the nominee without ever having more than 50% of his own party supporting him.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:46
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Montasque posted:He really is. I have no idea what he's saying but this audience loves this garbage. I don't think anyone has ever accused the GOP, establishment or not, of having a fondness for overly intellectual candidates.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:47
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oystertoadfish posted:^i guess if i was a gop money lich and i thought it wouldn't work then i wouldn't do it yeah. like i implied in the first half i think it's more likely that trump picks up a majority whenever cruz drops out Basically, Cruz not being a person who played ball with the establishment made him unpalatable to pick over another candidate or over Trump. His personality in turn, means he's not dropping out so the establishment can't get a head-to-head battle they want. Further to the point; they aren't going to win a head to head battle because absolutely none of the fuckers in this campaign are capable of taking the poo poo Trump is dishing out their way. Like this entire debate that just happened was basically a face loss for all of the participants and probably only made them weaker compared to Trump. I find it hilarious how completely unprepared the party elite were for a candidate who doesn't give a poo poo about their little club, especially when they've already been dealing with an at the time very popular Ted Cruz.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:47
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Is this the real life?
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Feb 25, 2016 04:47
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I'd say if/when Trump gets the nomination, most of the people in the establishment railing against him will be oddly silent until the convention, laud whoever his VP pick is as someone with gravitas, and then go on about the evils of that she-devil Hillary Benghazi Clinton.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:48
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:my question is when trump becomes the nominee do the big-money people and neocons Given what I'm seeing a lot of sky is falling, impotency, resentment, and probably still voting R or not voting. Not that it matters since they obviously aren't the core of the party in terms of total votes or leadership anymore.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:50
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Barudak posted:Does anybody give a poo poo about this? Like, it was used against Romney only because his dad did it and then Romney reacted as badly as one could do to it short of eating the tax return on television while shouting "now nobody gets to see it" I must say, I am curious about Trump's tax returns. Probably not as funny as Mitt's, but who knows? The tax code is full of bullshit and rich people love to use it. Of course, Romney got real squirrelly about the 2007-2010 years, IIRC, so that's probably where the juicy stuff is. Wonder if Trump will go that far back? Maybe he got burned by the Swiss whistle-blower like Romney probably did.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:50
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There's no reason to believe that Trump won't play ball with the rest of the GOP, after all. He's said a lot of poo poo, but that's not really binding on him after all.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:50
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uncurable mlady posted:I'd say if/when Trump gets the nomination, most of the people in the establishment railing against him will be oddly silent until the convention, laud whoever his VP pick is as someone with gravitas, and then go on about the evils of that she-devil Hillary Benghazi Clinton. Maybe. There's a lot more to being the top of a ticket then just running as president. That sounds stupid, but there's all sorts of fundraising and downticket affects that come into play. A trump candidacy could and probably will cause absolute chaos within the GOP.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:51
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Ben Carson Shia/Sunni gaffe should sink his candidacy but lol Republicans. E: He just said Jihadi Malpractice.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:52
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sullat posted:I must say, I am curious about Trump's tax returns. Probably not as funny as Mitt's, but who knows? The tax code is full of bullshit and rich people love to use it. Of course, Romney got real squirrelly about the 2007-2010 years, IIRC, so that's probably where the juicy stuff is. Wonder if Trump will go that far back? Maybe he got burned by the Swiss whistle-blower like Romney probably did. Didn't he already release the one that was basically "I earn enough to be in the top bracket, so suck it doubters, and boy its hosed up the top bracket is so low we have no idea if Trump is merely rich or indeed as he claims wealthy"
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Feb 25, 2016 04:52
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CubsWoo posted:Rubio was only in this race as a favor to Jeb to act as a splitter up until Florida, at which point he would drop out once Jeb secured Florida's 99 delegates with 22% of the vote and waited patiently for his position in Jeb's cabinet (or a golden parachute at a think tank/K street firm in the case of Clinton winning) Sounds like this guy: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Donald_Crowhurst Long story short: A British businessman enters a round the world sailing race without any real hope of winning but just to drum up publicity for his failing business. He is essentially a weekend sailor with a boat that is not particularly well equipped, against sailors with extensive sailing and world exploration experience with much better vessels. Spoilers below to not reveal the events as relayed in the excellent documentary Deep Water: He gets into trouble right away with his boat taking on water early in the race, and has to go ashore for repairs. This is long before the age where such vessels would be continuously tracked via GPS etc. Rather than face the humiliation of getting disqualified from the race so early, he hatches a scheme to hide out where he is, send false transmissions indicating progress in the race, complete with fake log entries, and then rejoin the rest of the racers as they pass his original position again on their way to the finish line on the final leg. His intention is not to win because this would lead to a degree of scrutiny of his logs that would surely lead to discovery. His intent is merely to finish at or near the back of the pack to get the distinction of finishing without the scrutiny that winning the prize would bring. As fortune would have it, virtually every other entrant was knocked out of the race for one reason or another: disabled by weather etc. When it became clear that Crowhurst was going to win the race essentially by default, he panicked and took his craft in to the middle of a storm far at sea and was never seen again.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:56
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Barudak posted:Didn't he already release the one that was basically "I earn enough to be in the top bracket, so suck it doubters, and boy its hosed up the top bracket is so low we have no idea if Trump is merely rich or indeed as he claims wealthy" I recall he said that, and put out a joke picture of him signing a yooge stack of paper, but I don't think he released one yet. As a real estate guy, he's bound to have a pile of k-1s so it may not be a complete exaggeration, though.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:57
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Montasque posted:Ben Carson Shia/Sunni gaffe should sink his candidacy but lol Republicans. Would've been a cool punk band name decades ago.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:57
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https://twitter.com/MarcACaputo/status/702690083355422720
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Feb 25, 2016 04:58
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oystertoadfish posted:^i guess if i was a gop money lich and i thought it wouldn't work then i wouldn't do it yeah. like i implied in the first half i think it's more likely that trump picks up a majority whenever cruz drops out There's certainly still a chance, but I think it depends on a Trump implosion of his own making or something really nasty being discovered. The problem is that the windows is closing quickly, from NV there's not much reason to believe he wouldn't have crossed 50% if 1-2 of the other candidates weren't there. If he got Bush voters (and it looks like he at least picked up a chunk of them) I don't see any reason to think he won't take from other dropouts.
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Feb 25, 2016 04:58
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^weird how ive posted right after you respond to me these last few minutes. yeah i think 'lane theory' does in fact describe a slight majority of voters but all trump needs from kasich/rubio is to shave a decent minority of their support off, and i think it's unrealistic to think that won't happen. voters essentially have a random distribution of bizarre reasons for supporting various candidates so there's always a decent amount who go from any candidate to any other, no matter how ridiculous it seems to we, the cognoscentiDAD LOST MY IPOD posted:my question is when trump becomes the nominee do the big-money people and neocons i'd bet that by the end of the nomination process he's routinely getting 50%+. let's assume that trump does the probable and looks unbeatable three weeks from now it's in the meaningless months of late primaries when parties usually (and the democrats will likely, assuming hillary has a good super tuesday) heal the wounds of the primary fight and get ready to unite in the general that will begin to answer your question the money people (and endorsements, even - i bet at least one northeast gop house member in a district obama won endorses hillary) will be one fun indicator to follow (i bet only a handful actually support hillary but i guess i'd bet a lot of them will focus on down-ballot stuff or just go home, unless and until trump's polling improves of course) but the polling of the large minority of the gop's electorate that really believes the poo poo they've been sold and hate trump's populism will be interesting to me. especially if the Pivot comes to fruition what are the people who feel like their party just got stolen from them going to tell pollsters about their intention to show up at all, and if so who they'll vote for? how will that evolve, alongside the opposite trend where we need to see how the rest of society reacts? even before the convention (and we should be watching to see just how much of a shitshow that's gonna be, and then whether the public reacts and if so how) there'll be a lot of interesting tea leaves to read about the general campaign in the meantime we on this forum will have the same arguments over and over again oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 05:02 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 04:59
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I think it's still too early to say Trump has it wrapped up, but he appears to be running an effective campaign in the background that's gone unnoticed. I'd expect that he's actually been running quite a good ground game in other states - would explain his NV performance, as well as SC. The big story of the season, so far, appears to be how Donald Trump built an amazing campaign apparatus without anyone finding out about it.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:02
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oystertoadfish posted:i'd bet that by the end of the nomination process he's routinely getting 50%+. let's assume that trump does the probable and looks unbeatable three weeks from now I have no idea what the "unify the party around the presidential candidate" stage of this will look like with Donald Trump, especially re: downticket races, but if it happens it will be loving amazing.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:03
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uncurable mlady posted:I think it's still too early to say Trump has it wrapped up, but he appears to be running an effective campaign in the background that's gone unnoticed. I'd expect that he's actually been running quite a good ground game in other states - would explain his NV performance, as well as SC. Isn't his campaign apparatus primarily "People who are fired up to vote in the primary are fired up to vote for me" and "I am the pied piper of the media's attention"? Or has there been revelations of his heavy investing in local states, because at my last understanding he was if anything understaffed compared to other campaigns. Re: Unify the party around Trump is really fuckin easy. You ride the poo poo out of a populist wave or you get the hell out of the way.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:05
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^probably there'll be a lot of house incumbents who really do want to go on with business as usual, and also some who are funded by trump-haters and can't risk getting slapped off the teat for saying something too populist. a lot of the money guys will give the go-ahead and their pet candidates will follow the trump line, but like how many republican house candidates (or for that matter democrat) are really gonna start arguing to let medicaid negotiate drug prices? it's hard to tell because the only coverage of this stuff is usually politico articles, which is a publication that openly acts as a loudspeaker for any political operative who wants to get their self-serving side of the story out, or some mainstream news media article that can never be completely ruled out as doing the same thing politico does (it's not like politico came up with the idea themselves, they just stopped swathing it in a coccoon of the 20th century objective journalism farce) what im saying is, it's awfully hard to separate self-serving fiction from actual fact in coverage on behind-the-scenes campaign details i wouldn't be surprised, though, if the 'trump has no organization' articles in february were more fallacious than the 'i, a hero who should get lots of job offers, secretly organized the greatest ground operation ever for trump' articles published nowabouts but we probably need to wait for a history book to tell us in a few years tbh oystertoadfish fucked around with this message at 05:09 on Feb 25, 2016 |
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Feb 25, 2016 05:06
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A solid ST performance would probably put it away though. Polling is looking up in TX but apparently there's a lot of early voting or something. In NV people who decided > 1 mo went hugely Trump and he lost late deciders (but they were a fairly small group), but who knows given the home state advantage.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:07
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Barudak posted:Isn't his campaign apparatus primarily "People who are fired up to vote in the primary are fired up to vote for me" and "I am the pied piper of the media's attention"? Or has there been revelations of his heavy investing in local states, because at my last understanding he was if anything understaffed compared to other campaigns. This would work okay if it was senate seats only. There's a whole bunch of reps whos lives are going to get really difficult with Trump on the top of the ticket.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:08
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Also: everyone remembers Romney selecting Ryan and there being a whole bunch of articles about "This choice has a lot to do with fundraising" right?? the presidential candidate serves as a point man or woman to raise money for downticket races. It's why Hillary is more popular with the DNC than bernie right now. One of them has raised nearly 30m, the other has raised diddly.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:09
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TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:A solid ST performance would probably put it away though. Polling is looking up in TX but apparently there's a lot of early voting or something. In NV people who decided > 1 mo went hugely Trump and he lost late deciders (but they were a fairly small group), but who knows given the home state advantage. Cruz camp is saying 500K have already voted in Texas. I don't think Trump is going to win there. With that said Trump is leading just about everywhere else and he will make TX competitive. If he wins a majority of ST delegates it's going to be tough to beat him, and the GOPe are already moving the goalposts to Super Tuesday 2.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:11
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:my question is when trump becomes the nominee do the big-money people and neocons I'd imagine for those not on the Cruz/Trump bandwagon, Rubio > Hillary > Bernie > Trump. Rubio will give the Republicans everything they want. Hillary on the other hand is great for business if you are an establishment member. She will let you keep your base frothing at the mouth for four years and guarantee that donations come flooding in. Bernie is basically Hillary, but Trump is something else. He will be able to pass bills that either kills GOP support among minorities for a decade, or he will push for liberal leaning policies that a Democrat would never get through. Not to mention the fact that a President Trump throws all the momentum to liberals to turn out in huge numbers and try to defeat him and vote straight D in 2020 - followed by pro-Democrat gerrymandering.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:12
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^even though nc's senator who's up for re-election this year had to angrily deny an AP reporter quoting him as saying he'd vote for sanders over trump, i think very few elite republicans would do that in the end. they're all old and they were all on the side of the culture wars that thought socialists were soviet infiltratorsSchnorkles posted:This would work okay if it was senate seats only. There's a whole bunch of reps whos lives are going to get really difficult with Trump on the top of the ticket. incidentally there's a couple states whose congressional primaries are on super tuesday, it'll be interesting to see to what degree the TRUMP spike in turnout i think we can expect for the presidential vote will cascade down to the congressional level, and then to see how many of those voters vote for the incumbent and how many vote for tea party types
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Feb 25, 2016 05:12
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DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:my question is when trump becomes the nominee do the big-money people and neocons Never underestimate what party power brokers will do to ensure that they remain in control. Their best hope for regaining their previous position is to help Trump and Rubio by annihilating Cruz, and they are already on their way to doing that. Then, when the primary comes down to Trump and Rubio, either Rubio will win or Trump will. A Trump nomination might marginalize them in the near-term, but if Trump is nominated and then loses, then Trump will be discredited in the eyes of Republican voters. If Rubio wins with Trump gaining a substantial amount of delegates, this not only gives Trump a lot of weight as a legitimate power within the party, but also sets Trump up to run and win if Rubio loses to Clinton. The nightmare scenario for Trump is if he wins the nomination but loses the general election. Much of the party machine will be happy to sit this one out and allow Trump to sink or swim on his own and bet that he will go down like McGovern or Goldwater did. That will ensure that Trump is done within the party as a major player. The more Trump wins, the more the pressure is on to go all the way.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:13
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oystertoadfish posted:^even though nc's senator who's up for re-election this year had to angrily deny saying he'd vote for sanders over trump, i think very few elite republicans would do that in the end. they're all old and they were all on the side of the culture wars that thought socialists were soviet infiltrators Trump causing senior GOP house members to suddenly and surprisingly lose their seats would be extremely cool and good.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:14
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Huh. Now this, if it was played correctly, could wind up being an actual stump. Rubio Campaign Calls On Trump To Renounce Pro-Trump White Supremacist Robocalls quote:One of the ugliest aspects of the Trump for President phenomenon – which anyone who’s been on Twitter can attest to – is how the white supremacists (or “alt-right” or “white nationalists” or whatever they call themselves) have rallied around Trump and swarm against anyone who threatens him. The Washington Post has detailed how these groups view the Trump campaign as a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for recruitment of racists. Now, we learn that white supremacists are actively robocalling for Trump in Minnesota and Vermont, and the Rubio campaign is fighting back. http://www.redstate.com/dan_mclaughlin/2016/02/24/rubio-campaign-calls-trump-renounce-pro-trump-white-supremacist-robocalls/
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Feb 25, 2016 05:15
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^aha, i was wondering if they were continuing after they did the same thing in ia and nh. it'll come up in the general election too, there can't be any doubt. seeing how trump responds to this will be an interesting preview of the general election repriseSchnorkles posted:Trump causing senior GOP house members to suddenly and surprisingly lose their seats would be extremely cool and good. on the other hand, if super tuesday trump voters end up being likely to vote for incumbents it would make congresspeople much more likely to toe the trump line as things went on
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Feb 25, 2016 05:15
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Even if Trump underperforms all his polls by a few points, he still wins everything except Texas and Arkansas, which are proportional delegates. He would have to underperform nationally by at least 10 points across the board to have the illusion of a competitive primary going forward. My personal prediction is that Trump will win every contest going forward except for Texas and maybe Ohio (assuming Kasich is around). I'm also giving him a narrow win in Florida.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:15
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breaklaw posted:Huh. Now this, if it was played correctly, could wind up being an actual stump. Put your "Republican base" cap on. Who does this hurt? The guy making the charge of racism, or the actual racist!?
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Feb 25, 2016 05:17
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^^ Everyone I know who likes Trump [anecdote, plural, data, etc.] says some combination of "I am proud of being an american and my heritage" which may or may not mean "gently caress YOU BITCHES I'M WHITE."oystertoadfish posted:on the other hand, if super tuesday trump voters end up being likely to vote for incumbents it would make congresspeople much more likely to toe the trump line as things went on This is also true. Trump as a top of a ticket has all sorts of wild variables that will be really cool to see if it happens. My gut feeling is that the nature of presidential races in the modern era means that Trump isn't routed in some massive landslide but tends to lose in a very 2012 Romeny-esque fashion. The downticket races would be absolute lunacy though.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:18
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breaklaw posted:Huh. Now this, if it was played correctly, could wind up being an actual stump. He already did this in Iowa when this same PAC did robocalls in Iowa with Jared Taylor
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Feb 25, 2016 05:18
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Democrazy posted:The nightmare scenario for Trump is if he wins the nomination but loses the general election. Much of the party machine will be happy to sit this one out and allow Trump to sink or swim on his own and bet that he will go down like McGovern or Goldwater did. That will ensure that Trump is done within the party as a major player. The more Trump wins, the more the pressure is on to go all the way. Why would that be a nightmare scenario? Trump has zero obligation to the party. He's not a politician. Losing would be a huge, massive blow to his ego, but it's not like it's going to end his career like it would Rubio or Cruz.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:18
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Democrazy posted:Never underestimate what party power brokers will do to ensure that they remain in control. Their best hope for regaining their previous position is to help Trump and Rubio by annihilating Cruz, and they are already on their way to doing that. Then, when the primary comes down to Trump and Rubio, either Rubio will win or Trump will. A Trump nomination might marginalize them in the near-term, but if Trump is nominated and then loses, then Trump will be discredited in the eyes of Republican voters. If Rubio wins with Trump gaining a substantial amount of delegates, this not only gives Trump a lot of weight as a legitimate power within the party, but also sets Trump up to run and win if Rubio loses to Clinton. What you say might have been true if it wasn't for the fact that 1-2 supreme court justices are in play and that this election will be against Clinton. No way in gently caress they throw it.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:20
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Democrazy posted:Never underestimate what party power brokers will do to ensure that they remain in control. Their best hope for regaining their previous position is to help Trump and Rubio by annihilating Cruz, and they are already on their way to doing that. Then, when the primary comes down to Trump and Rubio, either Rubio will win or Trump will. A Trump nomination might marginalize them in the near-term, but if Trump is nominated and then loses, then Trump will be discredited in the eyes of Republican voters. If Rubio wins with Trump gaining a substantial amount of delegates, this not only gives Trump a lot of weight as a legitimate power within the party, but also sets Trump up to run and win if Rubio loses to Clinton. If Trump loses he goes back to building construction and living in Trump Tower with his hot wife, everyone else in the race on both sides needs to stay politically viable after a loss except for Donald Trump
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Feb 25, 2016 05:20
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oystertoadfish posted:in the meantime we on this forum will have the same arguments over and over again This is the only true certainty in 2016.
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Feb 25, 2016 05:20
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