Register a SA Forums Account here!
JOINING THE SA FORUMS WILL REMOVE THIS BIG AD, THE ANNOYING UNDERLINED ADS, AND STUPID INTERSTITIAL ADS!!!

You can: log in, read the tech support FAQ, or request your lost password. This dumb message (and those ads) will appear on every screen until you register! Get rid of this crap by registering your own SA Forums Account and joining roughly 150,000 Goons, for the one-time price of $9.95! We charge money because it costs us money per month for bills, and since we don't believe in showing ads to our users, we try to make the money back through forum registrations.
 
  • Locked thread
Apples McGrind
Oct 13, 2013

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

Fritz Coldcockin
Nov 7, 2005

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

he won't do this because he's a synth

And now I'm going to spend the rest of the debates waiting for the Brotherhood of Steel to storm the building and shoot him.

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


Patter Song posted:

Chris Christie was a total nonstarter, though. Christie was going to be the "gently caress you" rear end in a top hat from Jersey candidate until Trump did it but 10x better.

Christie is rude by politician standards which isn't good enough. The RNC needed someone who would call trump a "retard" on live tv.

Properly coached Christie probably could have stumped him 1v1 but the establishment backed Rubio and Jeb instead.

zoux
Apr 28, 2006

By far the best thing about all this Trump poo poo is that he's doing it for a song.
https://twitter.com/teddyschleifer/status/702937402059280384

Trash Trick
Apr 17, 2014

Brannock posted:

When Trump hits 50% polling you're gonna see some serious poo poo Marty!

I can't stop loling at this.

Lastgirl
Sep 7, 1997


Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!

Montasque posted:

ITS NOT MY JOB TO GET RUSH CLIPS FOR YOU DAMNIT!

https://twitter.com/jko417/status/699802141263798272

But I do it out of love.

you're the best, seriously :h: :h: :h:

SHY NUDIST GRRL
Feb 15, 2011

Communism will help more white people than anyone else. Any equal measures unfairly provide less to minority populations just because there's less of them. Democracy is truly the tyranny of the mob.

Lemming posted:

Is there anything I can do at this point to prevent getting sent to one of the Trump camps, or is the best I can hope for getting assigned to one of the more luxurious ones?

Buy a gun

Xenophon
Jun 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer
You know, of course, if Rubio actually doesn't want to win, maybe he should be attacking Trump on topics like Israel where he's bound to get stumped...

Jackson Taus
Oct 19, 2011

evilweasel posted:

So there's one opening Joementum sort of alluded to: in many states Trump doesn't get to pick his delegates, they're just required to vote for him in the first round of the nomination. But I don't think they have to vote the way he says on convention rules.

Yeah, but what percent of his delegates would that be? I had been assuming it'd be only a small fraction of his delegates - would it really be a majority?

Plus that would have to happen after listening to 3-4 months of "Donald Trump, presumptive Republican nominee" - will they really have the ability to resist the siren call for that long (or more to the point, keep 1237 delegates from succumbing to the siren song)?

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

That's not the point, if ST is a blowout this thing is all but over. There simply isn't time for your strategy any more. You need to change the narrative around tonight and have Trump underperform in ST states.

Your strat is a flat out admission it's over and it will be transparently seen that way.

Yeah. If it's next Wednesday and Trump hasn't been at least partially stumped he's not just the front-runner, he's the likely nominee, well on his way to becoming presumptive nominee. Any strategy focusing on re-grouping in the March 15th timeframe needs to not just regain momentum for Rubio, but utterly end the Trump campaign. Nobody's yet figured out how to take 3 points off his polling average - knocking 30 points off him in one go is delusional. It's "Trump is literally a lizard man [rips off his mask to prove it]" or "here's the video of Hillary pegging Trump after he swears fealty to her plan to destroy the Republican primary" or something similarly crazy.

Lum_ posted:

Assuming Rubio and Cruz both stay in for the duration, and polling stays roughly the same (and Trump wins Ohio), Trump will cross the threshold most likely in late May just before the final primaries. Given all the above AND if Kasich wins Ohio, Trump most likely will not get enough delegates to clinch the nomination. (Kasich probably won't win Ohio.)

There's quite a few winner-take-all states (and ones that effectively are in the current climate thanks to 20% vote share thresholds to qualify for delegates) but Trump isn't running away with it, either, and won't be unless he starts posting 50%+ vs. the rest of the field.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9305

Polls won't stay the same though - how long are Rubio/Cruz fans going to buy this "third place victory" crap?

Jackson Taus fucked around with this message at 22:52 on Feb 25, 2016

The Saurus
Dec 3, 2006

by Smythe

Schnorkles posted:

Trumps plan would totally work until clothes doubled or tripled in cost.

Then there would be riots.

There's plenty of Americans who can't afford clothes right now who'd be happy to have employment and at least buy an outfit once every few months.

Riots against Trump would quickly turn into running street battles between factions, and I don't expect the liberal pussies to beat down the Trumpenproletariat.

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
Montasque posted this twitter thread pages ago but, it kind of buried the lede:

https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/702738447887376384

Deace also had Rafael Cruz on his show and it turns out, you can only be a true born again evangelical christian if you vote for Ted

quote:

“What does that say about where we’re at as a church?” Deace asked Rafael Cruz on his radio show.

“Well, I think that they’re defining evangelicals in a very loose manner,” the elder Cruz responded. “If we look at the numbers, those that are people that call themselves born-again Christians that are committed to the Lord, we won overwhelmingly among that group."

xwing
Jul 2, 2007
red leader standing by

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

The RNC needed someone who would call trump a "retard" on live tv.

I always secretly hoped Jeb! would snap and rail on everyone and go down in a flame of glory... but instead he sat back dumbfounded. I would love if they interviewed him now and he said, "gently caress Donald and everything he stands for. gently caress his hair and his smug I'm rich and don't have to listen to you attitude. Bend over America because it's about to get rough." :fuckoff:

Scrub-Niggurath
Nov 27, 2007

I can totally see some minor ratfucking going down if the nomination is seriously contested, but I just don't get how if Trump shows up with a clear majority of delegates the party can then just hand wave it all away and nominate Rubio instead. It basically delegitimizes the entire primary process and would turn off voters more than anything else.

Louisgod
Sep 25, 2003

Always Watching
Bread Liar

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

I can totally see some minor ratfucking going down if the nomination is seriously contested, but I just don't get how if Trump shows up with a clear majority of delegates the party can then just hand wave it all away and nominate Rubio instead. It basically delegitimizes the entire primary process and would turn off voters more than anything else.

Yes, exactly, but that's assuming the current process is in any way legitimate and flows properly The fact that the RNC can make up or adjust rules on the fly based on preference or flavor means the current process is nothing but a joke and for show.

radical meme
Apr 17, 2009

by Fluffdaddy
If they're going to totally ignore the voters anyway, why would they nominate Rubio?

xwing
Jul 2, 2007
red leader standing by

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

I can totally see some minor ratfucking going down if the nomination is seriously contested, but I just don't get how if Trump shows up with a clear majority of delegates the party can then just hand wave it all away and nominate Rubio instead. It basically delegitimizes the entire primary process and would turn off voters more than anything else.

And what if Bernie works out a slim majority and the superdelegates ratfuck him too? Both parties ratfuck the nominee... that'd be interesting.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven

radical meme posted:

Montasque posted this twitter thread pages ago but, it kind of buried the lede:

https://twitter.com/SteveDeaceShow/status/702738447887376384

Deace also had Rafael Cruz on his show and it turns out, you can only be a true born again evangelical christian if you vote for Ted

So far we have threats from the evangelicals, and Establishment types to run third party if Trump wins the nom.

Come on Pauls, this is your shot for that libertarian dream run!

Pander
Oct 9, 2007

Fear is the glue that holds society together. It's what makes people suppress their worst impulses. Fear is power.

And at the end of fear, oblivion.



dimebag dinkman posted:

Daughters turning on fathers...

:golfclap:

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Lum_ posted:

Assuming Rubio and Cruz both stay in for the duration, and polling stays roughly the same (and Trump wins Ohio), Trump will cross the threshold most likely in late May just before the final primaries. Given all the above AND if Kasich wins Ohio, Trump most likely will not get enough delegates to clinch the nomination. (Kasich probably won't win Ohio.)

There's quite a few winner-take-all states (and ones that effectively are in the current climate thanks to 20% vote share thresholds to qualify for delegates) but Trump isn't running away with it, either, and won't be unless he starts posting 50%+ vs. the rest of the field.

http://cookpolitical.com/story/9305

This is the sort of delegate math the Bernie supporters are relying on, and it always ignores that once the narrative switches from "probably going to win" to "nothing can stop him" it's over. I don't see Rubio or Cruz falling on the sword for no good reason and their supporters are already starting to jump ship.

e: woops this post says it better

Jackson Taus posted:

Yeah, but what percent of his delegates would that be? I had been assuming it'd be only a small fraction of his delegates - would it really be a majority?

Plus that would have to happen after listening to 3-4 months of "Donald Trump, presumptive Republican nominee" - will they really have the ability to resist the siren call for that long (or more to the point, keep 1237 delegates from succumbing to the siren song)?


Yeah. If it's next Wednesday and Trump hasn't been at least partially stumped he's not just the front-runner, he's the likely nominee, well on his way to becoming presumptive nominee. Any strategy focusing on re-grouping in the March 15th timeframe needs to not just regain momentum for Rubio, but utterly end the Trump campaign. Nobody's yet figured out how to take 3 points off his polling average - knocking 30 points off him in one go is delusional. It's "Trump is literally a lizard man [rips off his mask to prove it]" or "here's the video of Hillary pegging Trump after he swears fealty to her plan to destroy the Republican primary" or something similarly crazy.


Polls won't stay the same though - how long are Rubio/Cruz fans going to buy this "third place victory" crap?

My Imaginary GF
Jul 17, 2005

by R. Guyovich
Is Ted Cruz the zodiac killer? His face says yes, his personality says yes, but I just don't know.

Montasque
Jul 18, 2003

Living in a hateful world sending me straight to Heaven
https://twitter.com/TeamTrumpGA/status/702651226471723008

Unzip and Attack
Mar 3, 2008

USPOL May

dimebag dinkman posted:

Daughters turning on fathers...

:wow:

Lastgirl
Sep 7, 1997


Good Morning!
Sunday Morning!
https://twitter.com/TeamTrumpGA/status/702962364254183424


The Trump Truck to the Trump Polling Station to Write in Trump

M A G A :toot:

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


xwing posted:

And what if Bernie works out a slim majority and the superdelegates ratfuck him too? Both parties ratfuck the nominee... that'd be interesting.

this will not happen. if Bernie has a majority the party will nominate him. the establishment distaste for him is nowhere near the loathing the RNC feels for trump.

i don't think they will actually try to ratfuck Trump though unless they're really really sure the base will fall in line to vote against Hillary. they might make that mistake because they have repeatedly overestimated how disliked she really is. ultimately though trump would certainly run 3rd party and torpedo their chances.

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

I can totally see some minor ratfucking going down if the nomination is seriously contested, but I just don't get how if Trump shows up with a clear majority of delegates the party can then just hand wave it all away and nominate Rubio instead. It basically delegitimizes the entire primary process and would turn off voters more than anything else.

I'm fairly certain it would make chicago '68 look like a polite disagreement among friends.

Blue Raider
Sep 2, 2006

Xenophon posted:

You know, of course, if Rubio actually doesn't want to win, maybe he should be attacking Trump on topics like Israel where he's bound to get stumped...

id wager that if trump actually had to formulate a thorough answer for something like israel, hed approach it from a businessmans perspective which id also wager would play better with the voting public than some nebulous political roundabouting

Winkie01
Nov 28, 2004
https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/702977491170758656

MaxxBot
Oct 6, 2003

you could have clapped

you should have clapped!!

Scrub-Niggurath posted:

HAhahahahahhaha

In what so far is the largest ever rejection of Neoconservatism by voters, Donald Trump hasn't stated his unequivocal support for Israel. Give me a fuckin' break Rubio

It's like when Rubio argued against Trump's Muslim ban by saying "B-b-but that would ban the Saudi royalty from coming over," as if anyone gives a poo poo. I'd support a Muslim ban that included only the Saudi royalty, gently caress them.

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Lastgirl posted:

https://twitter.com/TeamTrumpGA/status/702962364254183424


The Trump Truck to the Trump Polling Station to Write in Trump

M A G A :toot:

SEND OUT THE TRUMP TRUCK

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich

This is why winnowing matters.

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene

Louisgod posted:

Yes, exactly, but that's assuming the current process is in any way legitimate and flows properly The fact that the RNC can make up or adjust rules on the fly based on preference or flavor means the current process is nothing but a joke and for show.

Did I misunderstand some of Joementum's earlier posting? I thought the rules committee was the only group that could adjust the rules and to do so would require a majority of the delegates.

CubsWoo
Aug 17, 2005

Where the big boys RAAAAAAARRRRRRRRRGH FUCK YOU

Donald Trump is going to be President and there is nothing you can do about it HA HA HA

DAD LOST MY IPOD
Feb 3, 2012

Fats Dominar is on the case


mormonpartyboat posted:

Did I misunderstand some of Joementum's earlier posting? I thought the rules committee was the only group that could adjust the rules and to do so would require a majority of the delegates.

yes, but due to the way delegates are selected, just because a delegate is pledged to vote for trump on the first ballot does not mean that delegate has to be a trump supporter or do what he says

Xenophon
Jun 28, 2003

by FactsAreUseless
Grimey Drawer

crabs_in_a_bucket.poll

Zohar
Jul 14, 2013

Good kitty

Trump has a hard 60% ceiling and Rubio has a targeted strategy to pick up delegates by coming second.

Scrub-Niggurath
Nov 27, 2007


:stare:

MaxxBot posted:

It's like when Rubio argued against Trump's Muslim ban by saying "B-b-but that would ban the Saudi royalty from coming over," as if anyone gives a poo poo. I'd support a Muslim ban that included only the Saudi royalty, gently caress them.

hahaha I forgot about that

mormonpartyboat
Jan 14, 2015

by Reene

DAD LOST MY IPOD posted:

yes, but due to the way delegates are selected, just because a delegate is pledged to vote for trump on the first ballot does not mean that delegate has to be a trump supporter or do what he says

Aha, thanks!

Slate Action
Feb 13, 2012

by exmarx
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/702979782615687169

Hyrax Attack!
Jan 13, 2009

We demand to be taken seriously

Zohar posted:

SEND OUT THE TRUMP TRUCK

The Trump Truck looks like something you could spawn with a cheat code in Age of Empires I.

Quick question, if it is Hillary vs. Trump, does Bloomberg stay out? Is he just an anti Bernie ploy, or is there no chance of him running in any scenario?

Adbot
ADBOT LOVES YOU

William Bear
Oct 26, 2012

"That's what they all say!"

CubsWoo posted:

This is going to end up in one of those scenarios where Trump has the children of the vanquished chained to his throne, isn't it

I hope they wear the metal bikinis too!

  • Locked thread