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From what I caught from newstalk on midnight exit polls it seems that FG, SF and FF are underperforming, with Labour getting hosed. Yet FF are still the winners in the grand scheme. Some FG TDs seem to be begging for a coalition (assuming they're the majority, to absorb the lesser party and finally align right like most european states).
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Feb 27, 2016 04:12
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I honestly cannot believe FF preformed as well as they seem to have. Martin is such a disgusting goblin with no substance.
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Feb 27, 2016 04:54
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Cabinet posted:I honestly cannot believe FF preformed as well as they seem to have. Martin is such a disgusting goblin with no substance. Seems like it could describe Kenny just as well.
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Feb 27, 2016 05:56
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RTEs exit poll looking almost identical to the Times one from last night give or take a bit. FG on under 25% in theres: http://m.rte.ie/news/2016/0227/771143-general-election-saturday/
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Feb 27, 2016 09:45
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This is gonna suck balls.
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Feb 27, 2016 09:52
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How long do they have to form a government before we must vote again?
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Feb 27, 2016 12:35
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Dublin West is likely going to vote in Leo Varadkar, Joan Burton and Jack Chambers gently caress my consituency
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Feb 27, 2016 13:19
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Swan Curry posted:Dublin West is likely going to vote in Leo Varadkar, Joan Burton and Jack Chambers Apparently Joan is only trailing Coppinger by 4 votes on first prefs. God drat I really wanted her to lose her seat Edit: actually SF got a good number as well. They better transfer to AAA 
kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 13:38 on Feb 27, 2016 |
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Feb 27, 2016 13:36
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Some good news though. Lucinda looking like she might not make it https://mobile.twitter.com/RTEDublinBaySth/status/703546408218009600
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Feb 27, 2016 13:54
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Let's hope The Minister for Hash and Gee's transfers go to SocDem and not Jan O' Sullivan  https://twitter.com/Limerick_Leader/status/703560701424640000
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Feb 27, 2016 14:27
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kustomkarkommando posted:Some good news though. Lucinda looking like she might not make it Yessssss Every cloud!
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Feb 27, 2016 15:43
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I had a feeling this would happen re: FF but it still baffles me how people forget how hard Fianna Fáil hosed up the country to begin with.
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Feb 27, 2016 15:44
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Dual Monarchy posted:I had a feeling this would happen re: FF but it still baffles me how people forget how hard Fianna Fáil hosed up the country to begin with. You have to remember they got something like 17% of the vote in 2011. So fresh off them absolutely destroying the country some people decided to vote them back in. Never underestimate the ignorance of the electorate. Sure look at Kerry, the Healy-Rae brothers have gotten almost 40% of the vote between them.
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Feb 27, 2016 16:11
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Brendan Howlin on RTE talking about the need to rebuild the party and that any Labour vote for Taoiseach will only be decided when the count is over and Labour can take stock of their losses. Wonder if there are some coalition cold feet now kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 16:32 on Feb 27, 2016 |
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Feb 27, 2016 16:30
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Alan Shatter not looking good in Dublin Rathdown. Looks like the Greens have a good shot to pip him if Labour/SF transfers go their way over FG and FF
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Feb 27, 2016 16:38
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Dual Monarchy posted:I had a feeling this would happen re: FF but it still baffles me how people forget how hard Fianna Fáil hosed up the country to begin with. Irish people love clientelism. there was an article in the Irish Times last election, where a person being canvassed proudly declared, "Whoever fixes my footpath will have my vote for the rest of my life!". FF was built on this concept, on a much larger scale, as they got a lot of people into social housing in the 30s. Kids grew up in the houses that FF gave their parents, with said parents singing the praises of FF, who got them the house, who landed another family member a job, etc, etc. Who cares if they broke the country four times, they fixed the road! When I mentioned how things work to a Pakistani colleague of mine, he mentioned that it's exactly how things work where he comes from, adding that "How can you change anything if people fall for this?" School Nickname fucked around with this message at 16:46 on Feb 27, 2016 |
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Feb 27, 2016 16:43
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Lucinda going out would be fantastic. Renua crashing and burning down to 0 seats might help put a fear of social conservatism into some of our politicians, maybe. In other Labour news Eamon Gilmore has "said the demise of Labour started in 2011 when they took on the job in Government to try to turn the country around and that today was a result of that." (15:14 update on http://www.rte.ie/news/election-2016/constituencies/dun-laoghaire/ ) This literally made me groan in pain. Everyone who wasn't a senior TD in line for a ministerial position in Labour knew, and said, this in 2011. He has some set of balls on him. For reference, the Labour vote in Dun Laoghaire (Gilmore's constituency) has gone down by 20% (!!!) since 2011, at first count.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:12
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FF took 3 of the top 4 spots in Carlow-Kilkenny on first count, SF broke their combo and took third place. Fecking 12% swing. Looking back at the by election last year I don't think anyone saw this coming. Don't call it a comeback
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Feb 27, 2016 18:13
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My Facebook "on this day" memory is pretty on-point.
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Feb 27, 2016 18:29
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So everyone's shat it and gone back to elect the other fuckups?
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Feb 27, 2016 18:31
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Coohoolin posted:So everyone's shat it and gone back to elect the other fuckups? Kinda. Looks like the only government that can be made is a grand coalition of FF and FG with FF being the smaller party.
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Feb 27, 2016 18:44
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If there's no successful deal by March 10th, which is likely based on negotiation times in previous tight elections, I'm wondering if Kenny will cancel the annual state visit to America. That would be embarassing
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Feb 27, 2016 18:48
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Not looking too great for the SocDems in Dublin Mid-West which was one of their better hopes, trailing AAA-PBP by a good distance for fourth place. Gary Gannon is in with a v. good shout in Dublin central though: He might get a fair amount of Labour transfers over Burke. Not sure how the O'Sullivan vote will split though. Also: 
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Feb 27, 2016 19:21
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Cabinet posted:Kinda. Looks like the only government that can be made is a grand coalition of FF and FG with FF being the smaller party. Ff can't coalesce with SF or a bunch of smaller lefties?
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Feb 27, 2016 19:40
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Coohoolin posted:Ff can't coalesce with SF or a bunch of smaller lefties? They most likely wouldn't be a majority and Micheál Martin, and others, has repeatedly ruled out forming a coalition with SF and has been up there with Kenny attacking Adams in the debates - there are supposedly more than a few TDs in FF with a more favourable view about a possible deal with them though. SF have said more than a couple of times they are not interested in a coalition unless they are the senior party and a deal with FF would not do them any favours in appealing to the anti-establishment voters they have successfully courted
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Feb 27, 2016 19:53
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Coohoolin posted:Ff can't coalesce with SF or a bunch of smaller lefties? FF has more in common with FG than SF or the lefties. They both know how to play the game. Also the AAA specifically refused to sign up to the Right2Change campaign because SF constitute a large part of it and refused to definitely rule out a coalition with FF. So there's already been a fracture on the left between parties who won't go into coalition under any circumstances and those who will only if they can be majority partner. And there's some leftists who don't want to partner with SF due to their republican background. FF forming a coalition with SF and various lefties would just destroy whatever credibility the left has, unless they have the numbers to be an active part of the government and not just a lap dog like Labour turned out to be.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:07
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It really looks like any smaller party that goes in with one of the big two, dies horribly in the subsequent election. I cant see that changing if it turns out to be Sinn Fein. Also gently caress you tipperary for lowry yet again.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:07
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I think Lowry could kill a man on live TV and still get reelected. Hell if he killed someone from Kilkenny he'd probably get more votes
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Feb 27, 2016 20:16
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Ok that's interesting, I forgot FF weren't actually a leftist party of some form.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:23
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 at that "Lord Lowry of Tipperary" banner.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:54
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Shatter is done. At least something good happened.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:56
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Shatter is done. At least something good happened. Renua also don't look like they're getting anywhere.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:58
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Shatter is done. At least something good happened. I am glad of it
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Feb 27, 2016 20:59
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FG Deputy leader James Reilly looks like he could be the next big FG scalp but it will be a while yet till we know for sure Joan's fate is still resting on how the transfers from the local independent David Guinness fall - it's going to go down to the wire
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Feb 27, 2016 21:08
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Do Renua look like they could actually take a seat somewhere? Even Lucinda is struggling.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:09
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Are people really thinking that Enda will step down? I never thought his position was fragile. Hell, the problem is more with Labour, not FG. I have no love lost for Enda or FG but these talking points are coming out of left field.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:12
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I doubt it. Who do they think will take his place?
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Feb 27, 2016 21:13
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That's also an issue. People are saying Leo, but his seat is apparently in trouble? There is no real anointed one or anyone who seems to want to take the position right now.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:19
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lemonadesweetheart posted:I doubt it. Who do they think will take his place? The favorite to replace him has been Leo for a while and he hasn't exactly been subtle about building his support up in the party to come in after Kenny. The only other names that get put out their with a chance are Simon Coveney, who is more of a candidate for Rural Ireland and falls into a more traditional camp, and then Frances Fitzgerald as a compromise candidate
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Feb 27, 2016 21:20
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Cabinet posted:That's also an issue. People are saying Leo, but his seat is apparently in trouble? There is no real anointed one or anyone who seems to want to take the position right now. Nah Leo's in now safely after the second FG candidate got knocked out - topped the poll
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Feb 27, 2016 21:21
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