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Abel Wingnut posted:still not sure what to think of the dems in MA. i feel like hillary holds a huge advantage. i'm basing that on the belief that MA's assumed liberalness comes from boston's massive college scene. but yea, that's a belief. I've been wrong about a few more things than usual this primary and I'm not handicapping the Dem side nearly as much, but what's Bernie really going to do here that he's not doing already and by how much can he really overperform his own polling on a day he's going to lose big everywhere else?
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Feb 27, 2016 17:02
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Abel Wingnut posted:i have no idea how rubio loses puerto rico As far as I know, there’s still no polling, so it’s demographic/psychological question. Why would Puerto Ricans vote for Rubio? Trump doesn’t have a lot to offer them, but neither does Rubio.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:08
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it's more how bad the other candidates are. cruz...no. trump and his wall talk and mexicans are rapists and his unfavorables with hispanics are just so much more off-putting than rubio
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Feb 27, 2016 17:13
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Platystemon posted:As far as I know, there’s still no polling, so it’s demographic/psychological question. But yeah maybe folks are putting more stock into what Trump has said than anything else. Hard to say how that plays with conservatives in PR.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:15
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Peachstapler posted:The complete lack of polling is making the PR market a last frontier of betting. Rubio is a Caribbean immigrant son that speaks the native tongue, okay great, but does that put him that far ahead of Trump? I'm not at all convinced. PR parties don't break down among traditional lines and "Republican" does not mean what it normally would, meaning "Republican" Hispanics very likely hate him just as much as everyone else in PR.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:19
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him being trump, correct?
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Feb 27, 2016 17:21
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Abel Wingnut posted:him being trump, correct? Yes. Given PR somewhat unique relationship between citizenship and Americanness, I doubt Trumps rhetoric is scoring him many points. Outside the Virgin Islands I don't see any of the territories voting Trump. Full disclosure, I know next to nothing about the Virgin Islands other than everyone I've ever met from there is white as gently caress, which could 110% just be coincidence. Also my knowledge of the other territories is also dubious. However I went out with a girl from Guam once, and got talked into eating spam by cool dude from Somoa(not American Somoa) in college once. Ergo I could be considered an expert in some circles.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:37
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Jumped in to profit on some very dumb predictions (bought a a lot of No shares on "Will Ben Carson drop out by Super Tuesday" for a measly $0.32 a pop) and now I'm debating if I want to go ahead and sell (at $0.97) so I'll have some extra money available to gently caress around with some bets this weekend, or wait and get the full dollar payout in a few days. Seeing all your unrealized gains but not having anything available to make more predictions is definitely the most frustrating part of this.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:48
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e_angst posted:Jumped in to profit on some very dumb predictions (bought a a lot of No shares on "Will Ben Carson drop out by Super Tuesday" for a measly $0.32 a pop) and now I'm debating if I want to go ahead and sell (at $0.97) so I'll have some extra money available to gently caress around with some bets this weekend, or wait and get the full dollar payout in a few days. Just sell it. That extra 3 cents is pretty marginal when you can make far more money re-investing it.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:57
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e_angst posted:Jumped in to profit on some very dumb predictions (bought a a lot of No shares on "Will Ben Carson drop out by Super Tuesday" for a measly $0.32 a pop) and now I'm debating if I want to go ahead and sell (at $0.97) so I'll have some extra money available to gently caress around with some bets this weekend, or wait and get the full dollar payout in a few days. Sell. Even if you just re‐invest in a low risk, low reward Trump win, you still come out ahead vs. holding Carson dropouts. And honestly, the risk of Trump losing a state were he’s polling +20 is probably lower than the risk of a mentally deranged doctor suspending his campaign on a lark.
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Feb 27, 2016 17:58
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Abel Wingnut posted:still not sure what to think of the dems in MA. i feel like hillary holds a huge advantage. i'm basing that on the belief that MA's assumed liberalness comes from boston's massive college scene. but yea, that's a belief. I live in Boston. Massachusetts certainly is strongly Democratic, but I wouldn't call it that liberal. There is a still a lingering conservatism from our Puritan days. Bars and clubs don't stay open that late, it is only in the last couple years that you could by booze on Sundays. There are a lot of college students in Boston but many of them are from other states and thus can't vote here. Other than that the average voter is fairly old and there are a lot of rich people who are socially liberal who are doing quite well with the economic system the way it is. I wouldn't go crazy with bidding up Hillary, it is still more friendly to Bernie than most places, but I would still put it somewhere like 65 or 70 she wins
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Feb 27, 2016 18:24
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Puerto Rico is pretty much a rigged election, afaik. I conjure up the scene from Gangs of New York.
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Feb 27, 2016 19:08
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Arkane posted:we need fractional share prices  Problem is, who would buy $0.999 shares?
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Feb 27, 2016 19:18
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Fuschia tude posted:
even something like a half cent increment would allow for much better betting in the 0-5 cent range
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Feb 27, 2016 19:30
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Fuschia tude posted:
In a linked market, lots of people.
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Feb 27, 2016 19:31
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Arkane: what's your O/U on Rubio delegates Tuesday? Spreadsheeting tonight and need some good best case/worst case graphs.
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Feb 27, 2016 19:36
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Abel Wingnut posted:still not sure what to think of the dems in MA. i feel like hillary holds a huge advantage. i'm basing that on the belief that MA's assumed liberalness comes from boston's massive college scene. but yea, that's a belief. For Massachusetts? About 2 weeks ago a poll came in that was Sanders +7, after there being no polls from November (when it was Clinton +25) to then. But then a poll was done a week ago that showed a tie, and then another poll done a few days later showed Clinton +5. So there might have been a temporary surge for Sanders that started to fizzle out after Nevada was over, and which will be further sunk by the SC results? Here's the RCP page: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ma/massachusetts_democratic_presidential_primary-3891.html
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Feb 27, 2016 19:51
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Thoughts on buying Trump US pres at 36? I feel like a good news cycle will pop him up to 40 every now and then but with this year who knows. Seems like shares of him are tanking today and it's a chance to capitalize on market skittishness.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:17
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lol @ the would-be MM's in the PredictIt comments saying how they still see Bernie pulling off a slim SC windeathbysnusnu posted:Thoughts on buying Trump US pres at 36? I feel like a good news cycle will pop him up to 40 every now and then but with this year who knows. Seems like shares of him are tanking today and it's a chance to capitalize on market skittishness.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:21
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Adar posted:Arkane: what's your O/U on Rubio delegates Tuesday? Spreadsheeting tonight and need some good best case/worst case graphs. No idea, but I still think Rubio is gonna be the nominee. Which is becoming an increasingly long shot prediction.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:38
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deathbysnusnu posted:Thoughts on buying Trump US pres at 36? I feel like a good news cycle will pop him up to 40 every now and then but with this year who knows. Seems like shares of him are tanking today and it's a chance to capitalize on market skittishness. I actually think Clinton US pres is a better market. There's 8 cents on Bernie and 16 cents on Rubio, and I think most of that money will move to Hillary if Trump and Clinton both have very good Super Tuesdays.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:43
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If we assume the best case scenario for Trump where he cruises to the nomination, he has party support, and no one runs third party, what are his odds? They're obviously below 36%, let alone 40%. Seems like the worst way to bet on Trump.
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Feb 27, 2016 20:48
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Arkane posted:If we assume the best case scenario for Trump where he cruises to the nomination, he has party support, and no one runs third party, what are his odds? I agree that it’s a bad bet because there isn’t much room to improve, but I don’t think he’ll settle below 36% in the general election.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:01
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Concerned Citizen posted:I actually think Clinton US pres is a better market. There's 8 cents on Bernie and 16 cents on Rubio, and I think most of that money will move to Hillary if Trump and Clinton both have very good Super Tuesdays. Hillary right now is pretty fairly priced pre lock on nomination in my opinion. I see her bouncing 51-55 until general election polls start to count and have been flipping 2-3 c shifts pretty regularly. I feel like Donald will crush everything on super Tuesday except Texas and even there a good endorsement string may upset things (unlikely). I don't see Donald being above 40 in the long run, but He'll get the occasional good head to head poll and I feel like 40-41 after a super Tuesday win seems right especially if Bernie gets a few pick ups.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:08
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Arkane posted:No idea, but I still think Rubio is gonna be the nominee. Done some of the math now and... ...Rubio is more likely to drop out in 18 days than he is to have won > 2 states.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:08
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Adar posted:Done some of the math now and... Yeah, if you're a Trump doubter, don't bet on it. You'll probably lose your money. Rubio and the rest of the Republicans figured it out too late that attacking Donald Trump might be worth a try.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:10
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Adar posted:Done some of the math now and... the odds already reflect this
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Feb 27, 2016 21:25
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Arkane posted:the odds already reflect this I have no idea if they do tbh. The high 70's seem like a legit number but there's a 100% chance the line will be 10 points higher in two days and that'll seem like a legit number too.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:29
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What do you guys make of this market: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1991/Will-primary-polling-give-Trump-at-least-35-on-February-29#data The polling data seems to make this a 95% long shot. Am I printing money buying NO here?
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Feb 27, 2016 21:46
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SHINEBLOCKA posted:What do you guys make of this market: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1991/Will-primary-polling-give-Trump-at-least-35-on-February-29#data Never bet on polling.
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Feb 27, 2016 21:47
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you're not betting on polling, you're betting on rcp can we put 'DON'T BET ON POLLS' in the title?
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Feb 27, 2016 21:48
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Explain that a little more. I understand I'm not betting on any real polls but just RCP's interpretation and aggregation of polls. That said there would have to be 3 > 35% polls released in the next two days for this to resolve yes. I'm totally listening to why this is a bad bet to take. RCP isn't just going to make up numbers, there have to be actual polls released, right?
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Feb 27, 2016 21:55
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Adar posted:I have no idea if they do tbh. The high 70's seem like a legit number but there's a 100% chance the line will be 10 points higher in two days and that'll seem like a legit number too. Well I think his odds may slowly drift up 3-4 points pre-Super Tuesday as people prep for perceived inevitableness. I don't agree on the 100% chance, though. More importantly, I think if Trump has an expected day, his odds likely increase...but if Trump were to have a less than expected day, you could see the odds collapse like you did after Iowa. In some sense, we have a balloon here that is fit to be pop. It may never pop, he may cruise to the nom, but you'll have a rush to the exit if it does pop. I don't expect any such collapse to be orderly, and so I don't want to be stuck with my pants down trying to bet on Rubio at poo poo prices. I've been nibbling slowly as his odds continue to get longer. My approach during this election has been to cautiously bet on Trump with a slight profit/break-even, but always be prepped for a collapse. Because I think the vast majority of people holding Trump shares think it is nuts. They may believe it'll happen, but they think it is nuts. So any excuse to sell could be a collapse (just in the debate alone, he collapsed 10 points before recovering).
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Feb 27, 2016 21:58
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SHINEBLOCKA posted:Explain that a little more. I understand I'm not betting on any real polls but just RCP's interpretation and aggregation of polls. That said there would have to be 3 > 35% polls released in the next two days for this to resolve yes. I'm totally listening to why this is a bad bet to take. RCP isn't just going to make up numbers, there have to be actual polls released, right? If NBC/WSJ released a new poll that had Trump at 34% or above, wouldn’t that alone cause Trump to hit 35%? I don’t think RCP keeps multiple polls from the same pollster in the basket, even if they’re both more recent than the oldest in the basket.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:08
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Platystemon posted:If NBC/WSJ released a new poll that had Trump at 34% or above, wouldn’t that alone cause Trump to hit 35%? I don’t think RCP keeps multiple polls from the same pollster in the basket, even if they’re both more recent than the oldest in the basket. NBC/WSJ dropped a national poll in mid Jan, and mid Feb, neither of which broke 30, let alone 35. Their methodology is to subtract negative responses from positive rather than just asking who you support. Trump generates a lot of negative. I don't think we're gonna get another one for a few more weeks and even if we did the methodology cuts against Trump.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:16
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SHINEBLOCKA posted:NBC/WSJ dropped a national poll in mid Jan, and mid Feb, neither of which broke 30, let alone 35. Their methodology is to subtract negative responses from positive rather than just asking who you support. Trump generates a lot of negative. I don't think we're gonna get another one for a few more weeks and even if we did the methodology cuts against Trump. You’re correct that they have an ant‐Trump bias and that they poll monthly (except for an extra in late October, for whatever reason), but I don’t know where you’re getting that methodology from. 
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Feb 27, 2016 22:35
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Arkane posted:Well I think his odds may slowly drift up 3-4 points pre-Super Tuesday as people prep for perceived inevitableness. I don't agree on the 100% chance, though. More importantly, I think if Trump has an expected day, his odds likely increase...but if Trump were to have a less than expected day, you could see the odds collapse like you did after Iowa. In some sense, we have a balloon here that is fit to be pop. It may never pop, he may cruise to the nom, but you'll have a rush to the exit if it does pop. I don't expect any such collapse to be orderly, and so I don't want to be stuck with my pants down trying to bet on Rubio at poo poo prices. I've been nibbling slowly as his odds continue to get longer. My approach during this election has been to cautiously bet on Trump with a slight profit/break-even, but always be prepped for a collapse. Because I think the vast majority of people holding Trump shares think it is nuts. They may believe it'll happen, but they think it is nuts. So any excuse to sell could be a collapse (just in the debate alone, he collapsed 10 points before recovering). While you're right about this, the way the polling has broken there's no plausible way Rubio picks up > 2 states. If he doesn't, there is a very nasty wrinkle in the delegate allocation rules. I'll PM you the details as I don't want this public.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:38
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Adar posted:While you're right about this, the way the polling has broken there's no plausible way Rubio picks up > 2 states. If he doesn't, there is a very nasty wrinkle in the delegate allocation rules. I'll PM you the details as I don't want this public. How does delegate allocation affect the betting markets? Just that he’s more likely to drop out if he gets shafted on delegate allocation? Or is it because you’re on Betfair, which has different rules?
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Feb 27, 2016 22:54
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Platystemon posted:You’re correct that they have an ant‐ "Nobody builds walls better than me" Donald "I have a great relationship with the blacks" Trump bias and that they poll monthly (except for an extra in late October, for whatever reason), but I don’t know where you’re getting that methodology from. Ahh I misread their site. That said, the timing of their polling is the key here. There isn't another one coming for weeks.
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Feb 27, 2016 22:55
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The two "landslide" markets need to be linked to each other. Obviously they both can't win in a landslide lol Also would like to see a market where neither party gets 270 electoral votes.
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Feb 27, 2016 23:07
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