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Is there anywhere to find out what the turnout for South Carolina is? I picked up some penny shares and want to know if it was a good random guess or not.
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Feb 28, 2016 00:30
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deathbysnusnu posted:Thoughts on buying Trump US pres at 36? I feel like a good news cycle will pop him up to 40 every now and then but with this year who knows. Seems like shares of him are tanking today and it's a chance to capitalize on market skittishness. I'll say this a thousand times: you're largely not betting against the general public's perception, rather than the perception of other people who are playing the same game as you. McConnell is now openly discussing running negative ads against Trump in the general. There's certainly some room for that market to grow once it's just him vs. Hillary but there's probably more to gain by just betting on him winning the nomination, imo.
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Feb 28, 2016 00:34
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Arkane posted:The two "landslide" markets need to be linked to each other. Obviously they both can't win in a landslide lol They're also not mutually exclusive though. edit: That's a dumb point. You're right
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Feb 28, 2016 00:39
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Necc0 posted:I'll say this a thousand times: you're largely not betting against the general public's perception, rather than the perception of other people who are playing the same game as you. McConnell is now openly discussing running negative ads against Trump in the general. There's certainly some room for that market to grow once it's just him vs. Hillary but there's probably more to gain by just betting on him winning the nomination, imo. I've already flipped 36 to 39 since this has been posted. Not a massive gain but 12 bucks will buy me a some beers tonight.
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Feb 28, 2016 00:57
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Adar posted:While you're right about this, the way the polling has broken there's no plausible way Rubio picks up > 2 states. If he doesn't, there is a very nasty wrinkle in the delegate allocation rules. I'll PM you the details as I don't want this public. this is kind of against the spirit of the thread tbh Are you referring to the rule that a candidate must win 6 or 8 states or whatever to be put into contention for nomination?
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Feb 28, 2016 01:24
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Aliquid posted:this is kind of against the spirit of the thread tbh That one's not actually true, it's just a first ballot rule that's inapplicable afterwards as far as I can tell.
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Feb 28, 2016 01:28
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Aliquid posted:this is kind of against the spirit of the thread tbh there's a huge difference between saying "hey guys please don't intentionally mislead people ITT for your own personal gain ala the comments on PT" and "hey you should be sharing the fruits of hours of informed speculation, research, and analyzation with all of us because I paid $10 to be here and I can't/won't do the legwork on my own"
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Feb 28, 2016 01:30
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ha, that's fair
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Feb 28, 2016 01:35
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In "hours of legwork and speculation" news, Ireland has voted itself a somewhat hung parliament involving parties that really don't want to work together. PI has the PM returning at 77% but there will definitely be fluctuations between today and the formation of the government. http://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2016/feb/27/ireland-general-election-exit-poll-coalition-fine-gael https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2002/Will-Enda-Kenny-be-re-elected-taoiseach-after-the-Irish-general-election#data
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Feb 28, 2016 01:38
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Adar posted:That one's not actually true, it's just a first ballot rule that's inapplicable afterwards as far as I can tell. It’s just the first ballot, and the delegates may also vote to change the rule. For states where the Trump campaign chose their own slate of delegates, they can be assumed loyal, and wouldn’t vote to change the rule in question. (From memory, it’s rule 40 part b, and the threshold is a plurality in eight states.) But in other states, while delegates may be bound to vote for Trump at least on the first ballot, there is no requirement that they vote in his best interest in regards to rule changes.
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Feb 28, 2016 01:39
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Someone just bought ~20,000 or more shares of Romney NOM at .02, including all 3000 of mine. I had thought they would take weeks to flip.
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Feb 28, 2016 01:40
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Is there anything informing the CO dem market? it's been moving steadily towards Hillary for a few days but I haven't seen any actual polling
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Feb 28, 2016 01:42
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Has anyone done the math on the South Carolina voter turnout exceeding 22%? Is this a 4 cent lottery ticket or a safe 4% return?Aliquid posted:Someone just bought ~20,000 or more shares of Romney NOM at .02, including all 3000 of mine. I had thought they would take weeks to flip. I saw that too. I was days away from giving up on getting 2 cents and just trying to get my money back. Either somone just burned $400 or this will be the best bet ever made on PredictIt and I gave away a gold mine Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 01:49 on Feb 28, 2016 |
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Feb 28, 2016 01:44
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Flavahbeast posted:Is there anything informing the CO dem market? it's been moving steadily towards Hillary for a few days but I haven't seen any actual polling She's crushing it in SC right now, so logically her prices are spiking in other markets. I have a sell order on my CO Hillary YES at .50, then I'll leave that market for good probably. Turnout, I have no clue.
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Feb 28, 2016 01:45
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Has anyone done the math on the South Carolina voter turnout exceeding 22%? Is this a 4 cent lottery ticket or a safe 4% return? edit: drat it, maybe they were talking about the African-American vote... StevePerry has issued a correction as of 01:50 on Feb 28, 2016 |
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Feb 28, 2016 01:47
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I wish Betfair had a March Sanders dropout market because if these margins hold up across the SEC I don't think Bernie will make it too far past the 15th.
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Feb 28, 2016 01:58
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Has anyone done the math on the South Carolina voter turnout exceeding 22%? Is this a 4 cent lottery ticket or a safe 4% return? I’ve drilled into a few counties, and turnout in almost every precinct is below 22%, usually by a lot. I think it’s safe. Example 1, 2 Platystemon has issued a correction as of 02:02 on Feb 28, 2016 |
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Feb 28, 2016 01:58
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The comments in the 22% vote market are hilarious. Everyone is up in arms because one guy managed to jack the yes price up to 8 cents for a couple minutes by emphatically stating that the vote percentages the news site are reporting are actual vote percentages and not precinct percentages. Now he's cheerleading for the turnout to be way less than 22%. This Salvatore Saccoccio dude is great. Gyges has issued a correction as of 02:11 on Feb 28, 2016 |
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Feb 28, 2016 02:06
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Gyges posted:The comments in the 22% vote market are hilarious. Everyone is up in arms because one guy managed to jack the yes price up to 8 cents for a couple minutes by emphatically stating that the vote percentages the news site are reporting are actual vote percentages and not precinct percentages. He blatantly made it up. He has since deleted it but he made a fake headline of "Voter turnout estimates 23% - 25% and then linked to a bogus article that didn't even mention voter turnout anywhere. They went full internet detective on him and found his Linkedin profile. What idiot puts their real name on there (or here for that matter?)
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Feb 28, 2016 02:14
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If you buy or sell based on predictit chat then you deserve all the bad investments you make. I really can't believe how well 100% bullshitting works on the site.
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Feb 28, 2016 02:16
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PI should remove comments. They serve no purpose (toward the functionality and mission of the site, which is research). Unless the university is actually trying to study how people respond to rumors.
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Feb 28, 2016 02:17
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comments drive volume therefor they will never go away
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Feb 28, 2016 02:22
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IM DAY DAY IRL posted:comments drive volume therefor they will never go away More volume yields more data  and also money for the house, but I’m sure they’re solely motivated by academic concerns.
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Feb 28, 2016 02:26
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Aliquid posted:PI should remove comments. They serve no purpose (toward the functionality and mission of the site, which is research). Unless the university is actually trying to study how people respond to rumors. Otoh they're perfect for post-closing gloating 
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Feb 28, 2016 02:38
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I saw that too. I was days away from giving up on getting 2 cents and just trying to get my money back. Either somone just burned $400 or this will be the best bet ever made on PredictIt and I gave away a gold mine There's an infowars (lol) story about a Koch-backed plan to run Romney if Rubio loses Florida. Trump is up double digits in Florida sooooo
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Feb 28, 2016 02:42
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edit ^^ lmao THAT's why someone bought all my shares Pretty soon it will be viable to histrionically scream about actual, important stuff in the comments and have the masses think you're trolling.
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Feb 28, 2016 02:42
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Hillary CO YES: sold at .50
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Feb 28, 2016 02:45
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Aliquid posted:Hillary CO YES: sold at .50 Just sold half of mine as well. Letting the other half ride 
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Feb 28, 2016 02:48
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I dumped my Bernie NOs in CO with a buy order to get back in at 4c lower than what I sold. Shortly after the price went up another 7c and I'm left here with my somewhat meager profit wishing I had held out another 8 hours
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Feb 28, 2016 03:13
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I'm kinda scared, but I'm letting my Hillary in MN and CO shares ride. I could get out now with a somewhat decent gain, but after tonight I'm starting to think she's gonna take 9/11 (never forget) states on Super Tuesday. edit: My buying lowish on Trump in Minnesota and Alaska are gonna be able to subsidize me if I lose both, and if I lose one and win one I'll still end up ahead. If those things weren't true, I would probably be getting out right now.
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Feb 28, 2016 03:19
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Maine - Definitely Bernie or no? Last poll in October had them tied, I can only assume he's gotten stronger.
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Feb 28, 2016 04:00
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Aliquid posted:Maine - Definitely Bernie or no? Last poll in October had them tied, I can only assume he's gotten stronger. Pay attention to what happens in the nation at large post super tuesday, and how Massachusetts votes in particular. Also remember: Maine is a Caucus state.
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Feb 28, 2016 05:31
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I would be very surprised if Bernie lost Maine.
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Feb 28, 2016 05:34
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Grats CO crew. 120% profit is cool + good
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Feb 28, 2016 05:39
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I've got quite a few colorado Bernie.NO's that I bought up at like 35c. I'm tempted to just let it ride and see if if Hillary can't top Bernie there, given the aforementioned huge disadvantages he faces, and recent polls showing he's not doing as well as originally thought. Maybe I'll panic if new polling comes out though!
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Feb 28, 2016 05:41
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G-Hawk posted:Grats CO crew. 120% profit is cool + good i'm so glad to have exited that market with a $100 profit. i really don't know what to expect come tuesday, but i knew hillary was undervalued in the mid-30s.
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Feb 28, 2016 05:42
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Abel Wingnut posted:i'm so glad to have exited that market with a $100 profit. i really don't know what to expect come tuesday, but i knew hillary was undervalued in the mid-30s. yeah i think hillary will win but profits are cool. I may go back in at some point
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Feb 28, 2016 05:48
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trump to win Virginia. Do I take my profit now and plow it into some anti-bernie positions? or wait for the extra payout?
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Feb 28, 2016 07:23
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G-Hawk posted:Grats CO crew. 120% profit is cool + good I'm still in. I'm not leaving. I have faith.
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Feb 28, 2016 07:53
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| # ? May 17, 2024 16:55 |
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So my new amazing strategy is to buy everything Trump Yes (except TX) and Bernie No It's pretty new and will let you borrow this strategy
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Feb 28, 2016 09:23
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