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Like it's insane, people are like "lol what if he's been radicalized" "he'll launch a terrorist attack", "we have to bring him back to Australia to de-radicalize him" Radical beliefs aren't an infectious disease you catch by being in a country. I'd argue that the actions of the govt. in this case would actually further drive people to extreme beliefs (on both sides).
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 01:16 |
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# ? May 30, 2024 01:28 |
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Serrath posted:This is rubbish, Trump is the least popular of all candidates running (democrat or republican) and may be the most unpopular candidate ever to run in history. His success is far better explained by the failure of his opponents to drop out as they would have at this point in earlier election cycles. All predictions about his success have generally been wrong because people didn't anticipate the election cycle would have <this> many candidates this far in but early predictions about his "ceiling" of potential votes have remained pretty consistent, in spite of all the primary states he's won. Don't confuse his winning 30-40% of republican voters as any indication of his overall popularity; he's popular among <40% of registered republicans in a handful of states>. I'm still not convinced he won't win it, people have spent the last year underestimating just how much anger there is at the political establishment (the GOP in particular) and Clinton is not well liked. Of course the flipside is that the GOP apparently were so certain Trump was going to flame out and didn't try and dig for any dirt on him until now so it'll be interesting what happens when a well oiled Democrat campaign opens fire.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 01:20 |
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So far the Democrat establishment has been an utter farce. They've done nothing but flail wildly as a relatively unknown socialist from New England has come within striking distance of Hillary Clinton, the most traditionally electable candidate in history. Maybe they'd sort their poo poo out once it's Republicans vs Democrats but at the moment I don't hold out much hope.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 01:40 |
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gay picnic defence posted:I'm still not convinced he won't win it, people have spent the last year underestimating just how much anger there is at the political establishment (the GOP in particular) and Clinton is not well liked. Of course the flipside is that the GOP apparently were so certain Trump was going to flame out and didn't try and dig for any dirt on him until now so it'll be interesting what happens when a well oiled Democrat campaign opens fire. Clinton is wildly popular in the states that need to stay democrat in order for her to make virtually all possible projected paths to victory; the populations where she tends not to have the same popularity tend to be those populations who don't break for democrat candidates anyway. To put things into perspective, she is absolutely killing Sanders among all minority populations in every primary and in the last 20 years, every US presidential election has tended to hinge on what proportion of the Hispanic and black population vote democrat and republican (because white populations tend to consistently vote republican). The tactics of the republican parties have alienated minority voters and Trump has alienated them further; Romney won the white vote 61% to 39% in the 2012 election and his resounding loss demonstrates a need to attract voters from other minority groups if a candidate is expected to win. The Republican Party appears to be going in the <opposite> direction and early polling from different racial groups demonstrates this. Honestly, these predictions are independent on Trump becoming the nominee; any republican candidate will have to face the same demographic program that confounded Romney's 2012 campaign. Trump's nearly inevitable nomination compounds this problem further but this problem is much deeper than Trump and I'd be pretty satisfied predicting a democrat win regardless of who the republicans ran. There is no conceivable pathway to victory in the swing states that the republicans would need to take over and above the states that Romney won in 2012. They have only deepened margins of victory in states that reliably vote republican; getting 10% more of the vote in Alabama or Mississippi is irrelevant when you need to turn Ohio and Pennsylvania and Colorado.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 01:47 |
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Hopefully you're right, and hopefully the republican party tears itself apart and spends the next decade or so being unelectable as gently caress. I'm wondering if the changing demographics mean they'll need to cast the fundie christian stuff aside and focus more on the nationalist bullshit that Trump seems to be exploiting if they hope to stay relevant.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 02:12 |
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Recoome posted:This man is an adult, who lied on departure from Australia, and knowingly crossed into Syria, fully knowing the risks. Thought this was about abbott until i got to the part about the passport.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 02:16 |
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Imagine.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 02:22 |
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Anidav posted:
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 02:26 |
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Honestly I don't really care about discussing USPol poo poo but rather talking about scary and actual bad things happening in Australia
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 02:41 |
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I want Trump
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 02:46 |
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Recoome posted:Honestly I don't really care about discussing USPol poo poo but rather talking about scary and actual bad things happening in Australia I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 02:59 |
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Trapezium Dave posted:I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet. Malcolm's approval is going down down down because his own party is wedging him on taxes and whether bullying kids is actually good. At this point he might call a DD if there's even a hint of upswing, because if this fight over negative gearing continues the libs are going to hurt, badly.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:04 |
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Trapezium Dave posted:I'm the opposite, I'm following the US election because Australian politics is too depressing. DD news is probably just a ruse to get the cross benchers in line. That's my hot take on it anyway.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:04 |
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So dicks on the herald sun is getting an exhibition in New York https://www.facebook.com/NowThisNews/videos/1002191039871020/
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:05 |
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Trapezium Dave posted:I'm the opposite, I'm following the US election because Australian politics is too depressing. They won't be saying it publicly but I suspect one reason for doing it so early is to not give people time to get worked up over the budget. It would also give them a chance to clear out the cross benches in the senate if the LNP is popular enough. If they hold a normal senate election half of the senate stays and they might end up with another 3 years of getting frustrated by the independents.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:05 |
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Trapezium Dave posted:I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet. Due to the timing of senate terms an election held before about August has to either be (a) reps only, or (b) a double dissolution. A reps-only election is a a loving mess, since it means there has to be another election just for the Senate. Aside from being costly and distracting for all parties it's also probable that there would be continued anti-government sentiment leading to a loss of seats for the Coalition (in the same way that by-elections tend to run against the governing party). A DD doesn't have that drawback, but it does cause a mountain of other issues given the timing of the budget and the current senate reforms.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:08 |
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I thought the conventional wisdom was that a PM needed a really good excuse for a double dissolution or they would get hammered in the polls and I didn't think we had one. While the Senate reforms could be used as an excuse it seems too blatant. We're going to have 300 people running each state aren't we? Senate ballots two metres long.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:25 |
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Trapezium Dave posted:I thought the conventional wisdom was that a PM needed a really good excuse for a double dissolution or they would get hammered in the polls and I didn't think we had one. quote:We're going to have 300 people running each state aren't we? Senate ballots two metres long.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:33 |
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Isn't the DD trigger the ABCC? Wouldn't it be pretty easy to hammer Turnbull on returning us to the Howard years?
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:38 |
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Isn't the DD trigger the ABCC? Wouldn't it be pretty easy to hammer Turnbull on returning us to the Howard years? The DD trigger is just the trigger, it doesn't have to be the focus on the campaign.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:43 |
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Doctor Spaceman posted:The DD trigger is just the trigger, it doesn't have to be the focus on the campaign. Right, but no one likes politicians playing politician either. You paint them as using extraordinary powers meant to break deadlocks on important issues as being frivolous and self-serving and it will blow up in their face.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:51 |
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Don't they have multiple triggers available, though
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:55 |
BBJoey posted:Don't they have multiple triggers available, though Yeah, pretty much ever since the senate rejected the uni de-regulation thing, maybe even before, I forget
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 03:59 |
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I checked the dates and it seems the first possible date for a normal half-Senate election could clash with the opening ceremony of the Rio games. Let's do that.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 04:02 |
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Some hard factors to consider for DD timing
Some soft factors to consider
BBJoey posted:Don't they have multiple triggers available, though Surprisingly no. The CEFC abolition bill was blocked twice, but not by the current Senate so it's probably invalid as a trigger. They changed the uni fees bill, which I think stopped it from being a trigger? The fact that the ABCC bill is the trigger they'll have tells you that either the Senate isn't actually that unworkable, or that they're a bunch of chickenshits who shirk from any serious fight. Both make a DD less likely. Doctor Spaceman fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Feb 28, 2016 |
# ? Feb 28, 2016 04:04 |
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If they wanted an early double dissolution election they would have to have an early budget, otherwise the government would run out of money during the election. Of course introducing budget bills early would give away their plan.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 04:14 |
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Saw this, it's pretty good
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 05:13 |
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Zenithe posted:Can we not say dumb poo poo like this please. Recoome posted:lmao get a load of this nerd It's called wit, google it. I can't believe you're that dense.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 05:53 |
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Goffer posted:Saw this, it's pretty good nice
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 05:53 |
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quote:Former prime minister believes billionaire’s success is emblematic of voters’ frustration with ‘political correctness’
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 07:22 |
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Fair point; people are tired of not being able to openly debate important issues such as immigration and multiculturalism without the conversation being shouted down by accusations of racism - Trump has taken that message past the media gatekeepers.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 07:32 |
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ewe2 posted:It's called wit, google it. I can't believe you're that dense. jokes are meant to be funny, though
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 07:57 |
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Ian Winthorpe III posted:Fair point; people are tired of not being able to openly debate important issues such as immigration and multiculturalism without the conversation being shouted down by accusations of racism - Trump has taken that message past the media gatekeepers. All I ever wanted to do was marginalise a group of people based on their religion or sexual orientation, but you go around and accuse me of being racist/bigoted. You've got a lot of growing up to do, buddy.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 07:59 |
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someone post the Brisbane meet deets please
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 08:40 |
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Kommando posted:
nevermind, search works
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 08:41 |
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quote:RIP Channel [V]: It’s all about the music http://mumbrella.com.au/rip-channel-v-its-all-about-the-music-jabba-348885
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 12:20 |
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I enjoyed your Queensland Rail war stories, brisgoon lurker.
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 13:18 |
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Anidav posted:I enjoyed your Queensland Rail war stories, brisgoon lurker. Noone lurks here its just you guys Link to stories?
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 13:58 |
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Who could possibly ever give a poo poo? Speakin' of which, the TPP is finding hurdles in JSCOT
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 14:21 |
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# ? May 30, 2024 01:28 |
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Anidav posted:I enjoyed your Queensland Rail war stories, brisgoon lurker. And I enjoyed talking about your avatars
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# ? Feb 28, 2016 14:22 |