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Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.
Like it's insane, people are like "lol what if he's been radicalized" "he'll launch a terrorist attack", "we have to bring him back to Australia to de-radicalize him"

Radical beliefs aren't an infectious disease you catch by being in a country. I'd argue that the actions of the govt. in this case would actually further drive people to extreme beliefs (on both sides).

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gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Serrath posted:

This is rubbish, Trump is the least popular of all candidates running (democrat or republican) and may be the most unpopular candidate ever to run in history. His success is far better explained by the failure of his opponents to drop out as they would have at this point in earlier election cycles. All predictions about his success have generally been wrong because people didn't anticipate the election cycle would have <this> many candidates this far in but early predictions about his "ceiling" of potential votes have remained pretty consistent, in spite of all the primary states he's won. Don't confuse his winning 30-40% of republican voters as any indication of his overall popularity; he's popular among <40% of registered republicans in a handful of states>.

His only path to victory would be to pick up all states that Romney won in 2012 and add 2-5 additional states on top of that. Even if Trump wasn't the nominee, it's unlikely for any republican to win the presidential election this year because the electoral college favors a democrat candidate no matter who it is. Trump would have even more of an uphill battle than most republicans would due to his unpopularity but it's very unlikely that any repub has a shot this year.

I'm still not convinced he won't win it, people have spent the last year underestimating just how much anger there is at the political establishment (the GOP in particular) and Clinton is not well liked. Of course the flipside is that the GOP apparently were so certain Trump was going to flame out and didn't try and dig for any dirt on him until now so it'll be interesting what happens when a well oiled Democrat campaign opens fire.

BBJoey
Oct 31, 2012

So far the Democrat establishment has been an utter farce. They've done nothing but flail wildly as a relatively unknown socialist from New England has come within striking distance of Hillary Clinton, the most traditionally electable candidate in history. Maybe they'd sort their poo poo out once it's Republicans vs Democrats but at the moment I don't hold out much hope.

Serrath
Mar 17, 2005

I have nothing of value to contribute
Ham Wrangler

gay picnic defence posted:

I'm still not convinced he won't win it, people have spent the last year underestimating just how much anger there is at the political establishment (the GOP in particular) and Clinton is not well liked. Of course the flipside is that the GOP apparently were so certain Trump was going to flame out and didn't try and dig for any dirt on him until now so it'll be interesting what happens when a well oiled Democrat campaign opens fire.

Clinton is wildly popular in the states that need to stay democrat in order for her to make virtually all possible projected paths to victory; the populations where she tends not to have the same popularity tend to be those populations who don't break for democrat candidates anyway. To put things into perspective, she is absolutely killing Sanders among all minority populations in every primary and in the last 20 years, every US presidential election has tended to hinge on what proportion of the Hispanic and black population vote democrat and republican (because white populations tend to consistently vote republican). The tactics of the republican parties have alienated minority voters and Trump has alienated them further; Romney won the white vote 61% to 39% in the 2012 election and his resounding loss demonstrates a need to attract voters from other minority groups if a candidate is expected to win. The Republican Party appears to be going in the <opposite> direction and early polling from different racial groups demonstrates this.

Honestly, these predictions are independent on Trump becoming the nominee; any republican candidate will have to face the same demographic program that confounded Romney's 2012 campaign. Trump's nearly inevitable nomination compounds this problem further but this problem is much deeper than Trump and I'd be pretty satisfied predicting a democrat win regardless of who the republicans ran. There is no conceivable pathway to victory in the swing states that the republicans would need to take over and above the states that Romney won in 2012. They have only deepened margins of victory in states that reliably vote republican; getting 10% more of the vote in Alabama or Mississippi is irrelevant when you need to turn Ohio and Pennsylvania and Colorado.

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS
Hopefully you're right, and hopefully the republican party tears itself apart and spends the next decade or so being unelectable as gently caress. I'm wondering if the changing demographics mean they'll need to cast the fundie christian stuff aside and focus more on the nationalist bullshit that Trump seems to be exploiting if they hope to stay relevant.

SMILLENNIALSMILLEN
Jun 26, 2009



Recoome posted:

This man is an adult, who lied on departure from Australia, and knowingly crossed into Syria, fully knowing the risks.

No one in the Australian Government can actually know if he has been brainwashed into launching terrorism attacks here.

Do not return his passport.

If you willingly cross into enemy territory then you are an enemy sympathiser.

He fully knew the consequences so let him rot in hell in Islamic State.

If the Australian Government allows him to return they will establish a revolving door of radicalised terrorists returning here to murder Australians at will.

This guy is a traitor to Australia.

No sympathy.

Thought this was about abbott until i got to the part about the passport.

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again

Imagine.

Trapezium Dave
Oct 22, 2012

Anidav posted:


Imagine.
Uh isn't that President Rubio with Trump and Bloomberg as kingmakers?

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.
Honestly I don't really care about discussing USPol poo poo but rather talking about scary and actual bad things happening in Australia

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
I want Trump

Trapezium Dave
Oct 22, 2012

Recoome posted:

Honestly I don't really care about discussing USPol poo poo but rather talking about scary and actual bad things happening in Australia
I'm the opposite, I'm following the US election because Australian politics is too depressing.

I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet.

BBJoey
Oct 31, 2012

Trapezium Dave posted:

I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet.

Malcolm's approval is going down down down because his own party is wedging him on taxes and whether bullying kids is actually good. At this point he might call a DD if there's even a hint of upswing, because if this fight over negative gearing continues the libs are going to hurt, badly.

Birb Katter
Sep 18, 2010

BOATS STOPPED
CARBON TAX AXED
TURNBULL AS PM
LIBERALS WILL BE RE-ELECTED IN A LANDSLIDE

Trapezium Dave posted:

I'm the opposite, I'm following the US election because Australian politics is too depressing.

I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet.

DD news is probably just a ruse to get the cross benchers in line. That's my hot take on it anyway.

norp
Jan 20, 2004

TRUMP TRUMP TRUMP

let's invade New Zealand, they have oil
So dicks on the herald sun is getting an exhibition in New York https://www.facebook.com/NowThisNews/videos/1002191039871020/ :nws:

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

Trapezium Dave posted:

I'm the opposite, I'm following the US election because Australian politics is too depressing.

I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet.

They won't be saying it publicly but I suspect one reason for doing it so early is to not give people time to get worked up over the budget. It would also give them a chance to clear out the cross benches in the senate if the LNP is popular enough. If they hold a normal senate election half of the senate stays and they might end up with another 3 years of getting frustrated by the independents.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Trapezium Dave posted:

I haven't been following the double dissolution news, is there a reason why this is seriously an option? I didn't think we were at that stage of last resort yet.
It doesn't have to be used as a measure of last resort; the last DD was done in 1987 because Hawke (correctly) thought it would be politically expedient.

Due to the timing of senate terms an election held before about August has to either be (a) reps only, or (b) a double dissolution. A reps-only election is a a loving mess, since it means there has to be another election just for the Senate. Aside from being costly and distracting for all parties it's also probable that there would be continued anti-government sentiment leading to a loss of seats for the Coalition (in the same way that by-elections tend to run against the governing party). A DD doesn't have that drawback, but it does cause a mountain of other issues given the timing of the budget and the current senate reforms.

Trapezium Dave
Oct 22, 2012

I thought the conventional wisdom was that a PM needed a really good excuse for a double dissolution or they would get hammered in the polls and I didn't think we had one. While the Senate reforms could be used as an excuse it seems too blatant.

We're going to have 300 people running each state aren't we? Senate ballots two metres long.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

Trapezium Dave posted:

I thought the conventional wisdom was that a PM needed a really good excuse for a double dissolution or they would get hammered in the polls and I didn't think we had one.
Maybe? The last DD didn't have a good excuse, but it was almost 30 years ago. An election in August is close to 3 years from the last election, so it doesn't feel too much like an early election.

quote:

We're going to have 300 people running each state aren't we? Senate ballots two metres long.
Depends on the reforms really. There have been explicit proposals to make ballot access harder, but they weren't really a part of the final plan.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)
Isn't the DD trigger the ABCC? Wouldn't it be pretty easy to hammer Turnbull on returning us to the Howard years?

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."

WhiskeyWhiskers posted:

Isn't the DD trigger the ABCC? Wouldn't it be pretty easy to hammer Turnbull on returning us to the Howard years?

The DD trigger is just the trigger, it doesn't have to be the focus on the campaign.

WhiskeyWhiskers
Oct 14, 2013


"هذا ليس عادلاً."
"هذا ليس عادلاً على الإطلاق."
"كان هناك وقت الآن."
(السياق الخفي: للقراءة)

Doctor Spaceman posted:

The DD trigger is just the trigger, it doesn't have to be the focus on the campaign.

Right, but no one likes politicians playing politician either. You paint them as using extraordinary powers meant to break deadlocks on important issues as being frivolous and self-serving and it will blow up in their face.

BBJoey
Oct 31, 2012

Don't they have multiple triggers available, though

tithin
Nov 14, 2003


[Grandmaster Tactician]



BBJoey posted:

Don't they have multiple triggers available, though

Yeah, pretty much ever since the senate rejected the uni de-regulation thing, maybe even before, I forget

Trapezium Dave
Oct 22, 2012

I checked the dates and it seems the first possible date for a normal half-Senate election could clash with the opening ceremony of the Rio games.

Let's do that.

Doctor Spaceman
Jul 6, 2010

"Everyone's entitled to their point of view, but that's seriously a weird one."
Some hard factors to consider for DD timing
  • A DD cannot be called after May 11th
  • A DD cannot be held after July 16th
  • A DD held before June 30th means the next Senate election has to be held in the second half of 2017 or the first half of 2018
  • A normal election can be held from August 6th

Some soft factors to consider
  • The budget is expected on May 10th
  • Parties don't like long election campaigns because they're expensive, unpredictable, and annoy voters
  • It's been over 40 years since the last Reps-only / Senate-only elections

BBJoey posted:

Don't they have multiple triggers available, though

Surprisingly no. The CEFC abolition bill was blocked twice, but not by the current Senate so it's probably invalid as a trigger. They changed the uni fees bill, which I think stopped it from being a trigger? The fact that the ABCC bill is the trigger they'll have tells you that either the Senate isn't actually that unworkable, or that they're a bunch of chickenshits who shirk from any serious fight. Both make a DD less likely.

Doctor Spaceman fucked around with this message at 04:11 on Feb 28, 2016

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008
If they wanted an early double dissolution election they would have to have an early budget, otherwise the government would run out of money during the election. Of course introducing budget bills early would give away their plan.

Goffer
Apr 4, 2007
"..."
Saw this, it's pretty good

ewe2
Jul 1, 2009

Zenithe posted:

Can we not say dumb poo poo like this please.

Recoome posted:

lmao get a load of this nerd

It's called wit, google it. I can't believe you're that dense.

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Goffer posted:

Saw this, it's pretty good



nice

gay picnic defence
Oct 5, 2009


I'M CONCERNED ABOUT A NUMBER OF THINGS

quote:

Former prime minister believes billionaire’s success is emblematic of voters’ frustration with ‘political correctness’

Ian Winthorpe III
Dec 5, 2013

gays, fatties and women are the main funny things in life. Fuck those lefty tumblrfuck fags, I'll laugh at poofs and abbos if I want to

Fair point; people are tired of not being able to openly debate important issues such as immigration and multiculturalism without the conversation being shouted down by accusations of racism - Trump has taken that message past the media gatekeepers.

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

ewe2 posted:

It's called wit, google it. I can't believe you're that dense.

jokes are meant to be funny, though

Recoome
Nov 9, 2013

Matter of fact, I'm salty now.

Ian Winthorpe III posted:

Fair point; people are tired of not being able to openly debate important issues such as immigration and multiculturalism without the conversation being shouted down by accusations of racism - Trump has taken that message past the media gatekeepers.

All I ever wanted to do was marginalise a group of people based on their religion or sexual orientation, but you go around and accuse me of being racist/bigoted. You've got a lot of growing up to do, buddy.

starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"
someone post the Brisbane meet deets please

starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"

Kommando posted:



Brisbane Goonmeet
Sunday 28th 6pm
Little Singapore, Market Square
Sunnybank

Not the city. This is in the suburbs.
non piking Brisgoons suggested it last month.
Jizzmaster will be up.

nevermind, search works

I would blow Dane Cook
Dec 26, 2008

quote:

RIP Channel [V]: It’s all about the music
Jason "Jabba" Davis
In this guest post, Jason ‘Jabba’ Davis reflects on the launch of Channel [V] in Australia 22 years ago, the evolution of subscription TV and his thoughts on today’s announcement of the channel’s closure.
In that prehistoric era before the internet, before mobile phones, before ‘ice’ meant anything other than a helpful addition to cool a beverage, subscription TV was born in Australia. And I was there. Possibly by mistake.

It was late in 1994 and having applied unsuccessfully to be a security guard for IBM (where my mother worked), a co-worker at The Reasonably Good Café where I had some casual shifts washing dishes, mentioned his flatmate was having trouble finding a fourth talking head for a soon-to-be launched 24/7 music channel, to be called Red, on Galaxy Pay TV – “with No Ads!”
I fluked that fourth spot in my audition by answering honestly when asked why I wanted this job – “because I’m about to be evicted for not paying my rent”– and, thanks in large part to a woman named Julie Bennett, who became my scriptwriter/producer/buddy, I landed a contract commencing March 1st 1995, where for the princely sum of $750 per week I went on to be (quite briefly) the face of youth culture in Australia.

But first came the hate mail.
Well, it wasn’t technically mail, more like printed reports from the Galaxy call centre where viewers were complaining in their dozens about “this idiot who knows nothing about metal” introducing Nordic Black Metal videos with poor pronunciation: “And now here’s the new one from Thyrfing, hang ten guys…”
Filmed entirely on a blue screen at the Global Television Centre (their capitals, not mine) at North Ryde under the keen direction of Paul Fenech (yes, that Paul Fenech) I learned how to be a TV presenter.
“Show me the dancing eyes!” he’d cry. “Perfect!” One more!” he’d inevitably say, until I’d read my autocue 30 times to introduce a Madonna video.
Because that’s what “Red – The Music Channel” was – a burgeoning youth station with no commercials and access to the music video catalogue of three record companies, playing wall-to-wall music videos, with about every third or fourth one introduced by myself, Toni Pearen, Leah Purcell, or “Andy, from Horsehead” (who left shortly after launch to pursue his music career and was never heard from again).
It was not an original format but it was a successful one and playing music videos all day every day became the backbone of the channel, with occasional band interviews, with questions written not by Googling anything but by pouring over the press releases in the office filing cabinets or subscribing to fanzines.

In the early days of the station being on air, we couldn’t even get the Pay TV service connected to the office, so nobody working for Red knew what it looked like.
After a couple of years, media deals brokered in boardrooms meant it was time to say “Goodbye Galaxy” and “Hello Foxtel”, (and “Oh sorry Optus Vision, didn’t notice you there…”) Red – The Music Channel (always a mouthful) became Channel [V].Channel V logo
[V] for videos I guess, (no idea what the brackets were for), and the original presenters made way for a shiny new bunch of misfits including Maynard, Nathan Harvey, Leah McLeod, Mike Kerry and later Andrew G, Paula McGrath, Andrew Mercado, James Mathison and Yumi Stynes.

Slowly the channel’s parameters drifted towards the middle.
After the first year of being compulsorily ad-free, we started to take on any and all brands keen to influence a fickle and notoriously hard-to-reach youth market, all the while maintaining an edgy playlist and credible affiliations.
We covered the Big Day Out continuously throughout it’s heyday, similarly going behind the scenes at every respectable music festival from Homebake and Livid, to Splendour in the Grass, and also enjoyed a high profile affiliation with the Aria Awards – which actually used to draw an audience of a million plus on FTA TV (come back Rove!), and let us cover the red carpet and back stage.
Since the news came through Wednesday morning about the end of [V], the Facebook feed of Channel [V] luminaries past & present, (I guess all ‘past’, come Saturday), I’m reminded of all the brands we spruiked across the years.

From breakfast cereals to soft drink to technology, lollies and cars, Channel [V] somehow managed to bridge the divide between being commercial and being real in a really successful and unique way.
Despite our audience numbers being in the low thousands, there was significance in brand [V], and when we took our jam to the masses they turned out in their throngs to join in the fun.
The brainchild of a media maverick, Mr Barry Chapman, (who famously put a jumbo under the Sydney Harbour Bridge – an elephant on a barge, to launch Rock of the 80s 2SM,) the Channel [V] Music Bus is my most treasured experience from my decade as a VJ. A VJ? Seriously? What a useless feather in one’s LinkedIn cap.Channel V Music bus CD
Partnering with surf/leisurewear behemoth Billabong, we jumped onboard a luxury coach with a convoy of stages, sound systems, skaters, surfers and snowboarders up and down the east coast from Cairns and Mareeba to the tip of Tasmania, putting on free mini music festivals and extreme sports performances broadcast live across the country, day after day, for weeks on end.
It was the closest I ever came to being in a band and touring the land.

I’ll cherish the hours meeting our far-flung fans and “signing til midnight” the assorted merchandise – the highlight of which has to be the ‘Andrew G-String’. A pair of knickers emblazoned with the good man’s face that the rest of us urged his legion of teenage, and not so teenage fans to “wear inside out”.
Those days of taking our show on the road could not last, as advertisers became wise to the reality of our small TV audiences and the dawn of a new age of technology put music (and eventually pretty much every conceivable kind of content), firstly at our fingertips, and then in our pockets, leaving a 24-hour music channel ultimately redundant.
In the in-demand universe we now inhabit, who amongst us would wait in turn for our favourite song and pay for the privilege?
The internet has brought us so many positive things but it has also helped to dismantle bricks and mortar retail business.
Right now it is cutting a swathe through the media landscape and what the future of broadcasting may be is anyone’s guess.
From this Saturday, that landscape will be missing one small piece of uniquely Australian youth culture. A small piece I am proud to be a part of.
Much love to all the Channel [V] fans out there and all the amazing people who made it what it was.
“It’s All About The Music”!
Jason ‘Jabba’ Davis is a broadcaster, performer and writer based in Sydney.


http://mumbrella.com.au/rip-channel-v-its-all-about-the-music-jabba-348885

Anidav
Feb 25, 2010

ahhh fuck its the rats again
I enjoyed your Queensland Rail war stories, brisgoon lurker. :eng101:

lilbeefer
Oct 4, 2004

Anidav posted:

I enjoyed your Queensland Rail war stories, brisgoon lurker. :eng101:

Noone lurks here its just you guys

Link to stories?

The Peccadillo
Mar 4, 2013

We Have Important Work To Do

Who could possibly ever give a poo poo?

Speakin' of which, the TPP is finding hurdles in JSCOT

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starkebn
May 18, 2004

"Oooh, got a little too serious. You okay there, little buddy?"

Anidav posted:

I enjoyed your Queensland Rail war stories, brisgoon lurker. :eng101:

And I enjoyed talking about your avatars

:thumbsup:

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