|
Cabinet posted:Ooh I actually read up on Pringle a few weeks ago. Mostly due to the name. He seems pretty good.  The recounts been granted but tomorrow morning - I think that was the final straw to get them to adjourn
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 03:20
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 13, 2024 23:41 |
|
|
I mean, he isn't wrong.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 03:26
|
|
|
We still got a couple of counts running for some reason; Dublin South-Central on it's last count that will decide between FF and AAA-PBP, Cork East which has still not returned a single person and Dublin South-West where a recount is in progress between FG and Katherine Zappone (who won by 152 votes) I have a lot of good will for Zappone after the marriage ref so I hope she stays on top kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 04:22 on Feb 28, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 04:00
|
|
|
Cork South Central still has two seats to fill, Coveney should get it but it looks like Buttimer could lose out to SF.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 10:41
|
|
|
Its far from over and there will be a few interesting days a head, but FG hosed up big time. The 'keep the recovery going' slogan and Enda's woeful performance seems to have driven away swing voters on mass back to FF. I can't see Enda surviving this (good riddance) but I have a feeling that FG also might be in trouble in years to come.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 12:54
|
|
|
so basically it's 1987 all over again
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 12:59
|
|
|
Foul Ole Ron posted:Its far from over and there will be a few interesting days a head, but FG hosed up big time. I wouldn't count on the people who just went back to FF in droves to have long memories.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 13:23
|
|
|
Bryter posted:I wouldn't count on the people who just went back to FF in droves to have long memories. I would actually blame FG on that actually. 'Keep the recovery going' was a horrible slogan in the first place, very few places outside of Dublin have felt recovery. It sums up the problem with FG, they were to set on selling a message too the public that was not really true. Bad as that was, you then have Enda coming out with his whingers comment. The man (not all to loved as is) actually called some portions of the electorate whingers, denied it then admited and apologised, all incredibly before a major election for his party. The FG pissed off a lot of people in the last five years and amazingly managed to remind people of this and piss them off evem more just before an election, to the extent they caused voters to go back to FF.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 13:38
|
|
|
RIP Father Jack. 18 years to the day Father Ted died too.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 15:23
|
|
|
Fianna Fail and a gaggle of corrupt Munster Independents, it's just like old times again. It's time to finally build the Bertie Bowl.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 16:21
|
|
|
Still waiting on the final results from 13 constituencies to fill out the last 32 seats - there are a couple of challenges building up that will drag this out to tomorrow: Wexford is adjourned until tomorrow as SF have called for a recount as there is just 52 votes between them and FG for the final seat Dublin South-West seems to be going for another recount as FG challenges Katherine Zappone for the last seat - a recount of the 16th count reduced Zappone's lead from 152 to 124 votes Dublin South-Central is doing a recount from the 3rd count after Brid Smith of AAA-PBP beat out FF for the final seat by only 35 votes (this looks like it might be finished today) I tried doing some basic back of an envelope stuff and as far as I can tell the FG's majority over FF will only be somewhere between 5-9 seats.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 18:16
|
|
|
happyhippy posted:RIP Father Jack. I smell a Protestant conspiracy...
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 18:19
|
|
|
Though Labour's vote share is very very slightly above the 6.5% of FP votes in 87 they really are getting blown apart on seats - They are only in the running for three more seats: Willie Penrose (Longford-Westmeath), Ged Nash (Louth) and Aodhan O Riordain (Dublin Bay North). Arthur Spring is still there in Kerry but its not looking like he'll survive - O Riordain looks like he might be safe but Ged Nash is teetering on the brink of defeat and Penrose will have to pick up a good number of FG transfers to beat SF to the last seat. If all three make it they are looking at 9 seats which is a seat share lower than loving '44 when the Labour party had split and is only above the dismal showings in the earlier 30's when the red scare tactics where in full swing If only O Riordain makes it it's there lowest share of seats ever...
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 19:51
|
|
|
Well there goes Ged Nash
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 20:16
|
|
|
What does everyone expect for the next Government considering they won't be much difference in numbers between FG & FF. A coalition of the two or a minority FG with FF as the largest opposition party. Seems to be benefits of both. I think if they go into coalition FF will pick up more goodwill than FG for any improvements to the country. As largest oppositon they'll block SF from gaining a strong voice if they were the leading opposition party. My hope is that Sinn Fein and the left try to find common ground in opposition and form a left alternative that could go into government next election.
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 20:51
|
|
|
kustomkarkommando posted:Well there goes Ged Nash G'wan Louth
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 21:16
|
|
|
Marenghi posted:What does everyone expect for the next Government considering they won't be much difference in numbers between FG & FF. A coalition would make sense but there seems to be noises that FF is going to try for something new - some kind of supply deal coupled with Dail reform that will give the opposition more input in setting the order of business and fielding their own motions as well as instituting reform in Oireachtas Committees so that they get control of several of them (they've talked about using d'Hondt a la the North to do this in the past). That way they can say they are getting real reform to the political system to shake out the cobwebs in exchange for ensuring national stability, then make some noise that the left want reform but are not willing to do what is needed to get it done - might work out for them for a bit and leaves them an out to sink FG when a bad budget comes up. If they do go for coalition I think it would be wise to try to hook in the Independent Alliance or some smaller groups and pitch it as a coalition of national stability - then SF and the other left wing parties can be painted as rabble-rousers not willing to put the national interest in this the glorious centenary year above personal political ambition. FF have said water charges are a red line for a coalition and if FG bends on that they would definitely gain some good ammo for an election sometime next year - but you can wave goodbye to any referendum on the 8th any time soon I do hope AAA-PBP holds and maybe opens up conversations with Clare Daly, Joan Collins and maybe even Mick Wallace to try to get some kind of situation worked out - an agreement with the SocDems would probably be good too (I'm assuming the SocDems and Greens are going to be having some chats about forming a technical group). I hope SF does try to make moves to bridge the gap with the other left parties but I'm not sure how much trust exists there - Gerry retiring and a real internal party contest might make them more palatable I guess
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 21:36
|
|
|
Thomas Pringle finished 36 votes above SF's Pádraig Maclochlainn in Donegal This is deffo going for a recount This is a pretty embarrassing grind for SF in what should have been an easy two seater
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 21:39
|
|
|
Never mind there was a surplus to be transferred there I didn't notice - Pringle in with just under 200 votes SF losing a TD in Donegal goes against pretty much every projection, it's a new five seater so It was untested but the party where talking about taking three seats 
|
|
#
?
Feb 28, 2016 22:08
|
|
|
Labour must be praying for O Riordain to get in so they can hit the 7 seat speaking time magic number. AAA-PBP and the SocDems/Greens should both manage to grab an independent or two to form two speaking groups I'd say. I can't wait to hear details of the FF/FG negotiations start to emerge. This is going to be fascinating.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 00:36
|
|
|
My fingers are still crossed for an error for Burton tbh.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 01:20
|
|
|
Cabinet posted:My fingers are still crossed for an error for Burton tbh. On that note actually Labour from the looks of things seem to have gotten very few transfers from SF and AAA/PBP due to all the vitriol directed at them. Which is a shame. They've made some horrible mistakes, but in almost every case the country would be better off with a Labour TD than an FF/FG one. I wish there was more solidarity on the Left, instead of sniping at each other. The two largest (and objectively worst) parties in the state are the centre-right duo. I understand SF for instance wanting to make sure they get the 1st preferences they're in competition with Labour for, but I wish their supporters 3rd/4th pref went to Labour instead of FF (as seemed to happen in a few constituencies).
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 01:26
|
|
|
I think the left's issue with Labour is they have shown they are not committed to a left platform. It isn't "sniping" as such as justifiable anger after being let down.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 01:34
|
|
|
Blut posted:Labour must be praying for O Riordain to get in so they can hit the 7 seat speaking time magic number. AAA-PBP and the SocDems/Greens should both manage to grab an independent or two to form two speaking groups I'd say. I had to double check the rules because I thought they had been changed after Lucinda and co made some noise about getting speaking rights but as is the standing orders only allows for one technical group - so it's going to a big old mess of independents and left-wing parties if they agree to loosely federate for the speaking time. I honestly thought they had modified the rules a tad but nope - that may be something FF could look at if they are talking about strengthening opposition power as part of their supply deal, allowing more than one technical group would probably be better reflective of the current make-up of the Dail. The reform that was bodged together for Lucinda was to give time to "others" in the Dail to speak but still left them in the cold when it came to Leaders Questions and putting forward motions. If O Riordain survives he must be in the running for party leader - I double checked paddy power's odds (I know i know) and Alan Kelly is still out in front with O Riordain second and Howlin third. Howlin seems like a good caretaker option for when Joan goes, and I don't think there's much of a question about that now, but may be too tainted from his support for the FG transfer pact to stay on full time. If Labour pick Alan Kelly as leader god help them kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 01:42 on Feb 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 01:38
|
|
|
The question is if Kelly gets leadership will he be as happy as he was today? https://twitter.com/thejournal_ie/status/703958965906845696
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 02:09
|
|
|
Joan was on RTE and seemed to indicate that Labour would vote for Kenny as Taoiseach while strongly hinting they are not going to be seeking a part of the next government. Some big FF TD's out making negative noises about a deal with FG in the wings - among them Éamon Ó Cuiv, Willie O'Dea, Timmy Dooley and Dara Calleary.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 02:21
|
|
|
Cabinet posted:The question is if Kelly gets leadership will he be as happy as he was today? He's very happy for a man whose party might not even get enough seats for speaking rights. I guess the fact his party lost 80~% of their seats hasn't really entered his mind.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 03:01
|
|
|
Drunk on power, I'd say. Just happy to get his fix.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 03:09
|
|
|
Cabinet posted:I think the left's issue with Labour is they have shown they are not committed to a left platform. It isn't "sniping" as such as justifiable anger after being let down. They're more committed to a left platform than FF or FG though, at the least. I completely understand previous Labour supporters switching to other left parties (myself being one of them) for their 1st/2nd pref votes. But it seems silly to not even give a lower pref vote to Labour when it might potentially kept a right-wing TD out. SF seem to be more concerned with hurting Labour's brand for their own gain than with furthering the broader ideological left-wing cause. @kustomkarkommando Kelly would be a disaster. For Labour's sake I really hope O'Riordain gets in. Both from a leadership and a speaking rights reasoning. Interesting point on the 1 technical group though, I had never heard that. Would 3 parties (SocDems/Greens/IA for example) coming together count as a technical group still? Or would they be regarded differently since they're not a collection of independents? Blut fucked around with this message at 13:55 on Feb 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 13:50
|
|
|
Blut posted:@kustomkarkommando Kelly would be a disaster. For Labour's sake I really hope O'Riordain gets in. Both from a leadership and a speaking rights reasoning. Even if three parties combined together they would still only be allowed speaking rights as part of the technical group and as per the standing orders only one of these is allowed, for example back in 2002 SF (on 5 seats), the Greens (on 6), the Socialists (1 seat) and 10 independents had to form a single group which I think was a record at the time. Lucinda and co, back when they where still the reform alliance, tried to establish a second technical group cause they mustered seven seats but where told "no" and the existing technical group fought tooth and nail to keep them out. Considering that the current technical group is pretty well established the SDs, AAA-PBP and the Greens will have to reach some agreement with the Independent Alliance and other TDs in the group - to be honest it shouldn't be that hard as Catherine Murphy was the last technical groups whip so she should have good enough relations with them. It will be a pretty massive group though
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 14:52
|
|
|
Blut posted:They're more committed to a left platform than FF or FG though, at the least. I completely understand previous Labour supporters switching to other left parties (myself being one of them) for their 1st/2nd pref votes. But it seems silly to not even give a lower pref vote to Labour when it might potentially kept a right-wing TD out. SF seem to be more concerned with hurting Labour's brand for their own gain than with furthering the broader ideological left-wing cause. Honestly, from what I know of their governance up north and of some of their more rural members, I'd be very surprised if they actually proved to be all that left-wing while in government.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 15:36
|
|
|
I am casually wondering how SF will pitch themselves next election - this was the bonfire of Labour with left-wing votes aplenty to be reaped yet SF did not grab as large a chunk of them as they expected to. Meanwhile FF lead a strong resurgence in the border counties (Donegal and Cavan-Monaghan) and SF gains where minimal there - an area which is meant to be their heartland. The question will be "Is there more gains to be had by continuing to chase the left wing vote in a crowded field or should we aim to peel off rural voters from FF?" Maybe its just that I don't trust SF's rhetoric as a Northern who's seen them in Government
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 15:43
|
|
|
Blut posted:They're more committed to a left platform than FF or FG though, at the least. I completely understand previous Labour supporters switching to other left parties (myself being one of them) for their 1st/2nd pref votes. But it seems silly to not even give a lower pref vote to Labour when it might potentially kept a right-wing TD out. SF seem to be more concerned with hurting Labour's brand for their own gain than with furthering the broader ideological left-wing cause. Which would be fine, if Labour weren't actively campaigning for a continue of the coalition. To vote for Labour is basically to vote for FG. Leftists don't want to continue to coalition because of how little Labour did to pull FG left. Your point that they are "more committed" to a left ideology makes no sense either. The last five years have not proven that. The only thing I will give them credit for is the Marriage Ref and the Gender Recognition bill, but FG are taking all the credit for that anyway and it downplays their involvement. Quinntan posted:Honestly, from what I know of their governance up north and of some of their more rural members, I'd be very surprised if they actually proved to be all that left-wing while in government. I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. Northern Ireland's power sharing would not allow them to push a left platform when you consider how right wing the DUP/UUP are. Skull Servant fucked around with this message at 15:55 on Feb 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 15:51
|
|
|
Cabinet posted:I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. Northern Ireland's power sharing would not allow them to push a left platform when you consider how right wing the DUP/UUP are. Eh they've compromised on a lot of things they could have got a better deal on, the slashing of corporation tax being a big one - remember the DUP has a populist streak too and also opposes residential water charges, rates increases and the bedroom tax. Its hard to point to many successes they've had outside scrapping the 11+
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 16:08
|
|
|
PBP have been making a ruckus in West Belfast attacking SF for being weak on austerity and have been found quite a bit of agreement with voters, they are posed to take one seat from them in the next assembly election there. And that's West Belfast. You can't get more of an SF heartland than there.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 16:10
|
|
|
Cabinet posted:Which would be fine, if Labour weren't actively campaigning for a continue of the coalition. To vote for Labour is basically to vote for FG. Leftists don't want to continue to coalition because of how little Labour did to pull FG left. It's all well and good to (correctly) disparage Labour's left credentials/actions since 2011 though, but in some constituencies the last seat this week was between an FF/FG candidate and a Labour candidate. In that scenario anyone who actually has left-leaning political views, regardless of party affiliation, should be hoping for a Labour win. I don't think anyone can doubt that both FG and FF are at the very least slightly to the right of Labour. And Labour have far more potential to swing back left than either of FF/FG. Neither is ideal, but I'd far rather a FG/LAB coalition government than FG/FF, given the choice. And they are/were the most likely choices facing us. The very angry, Labour-are-terrible-in-every-way SF supporter sentiment just seems either selfish (a ploy by SF to get more votes) or childish (seeing everything in black&white good vs bad instead of shades of grey). The left's ridiculous tendency to fight each other / split parties constantly instead of coalescing against the centre-right has been a major problem in Ireland for the past 90 years. I hope with the retirement of Gerry's Generation from SF they lose some of the irredentist nationalism, and gain more people committed to actual left wing economic policies. But we'll see.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 16:25
|
|
|
Blut posted:It's all well and good to (correctly) disparage Labour's left credentials/actions since 2011 though, but in some constituencies the last seat this week was between an FF/FG candidate and a Labour candidate. In that scenario anyone who actually has left-leaning political views, regardless of party affiliation, should be hoping for a Labour win. I don't think anyone can doubt that both FG and FF are at the very least slightly to the right of Labour. And Labour have far more potential to swing back left than either of FF/FG. A vote for labour is a vote for FF or FG depending on who takes power and a lot of people are sick of it.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 16:37
|
|
|
lemonadesweetheart posted:A vote for labour is a vote for FF or FG depending on who takes power and a lot of people are sick of it. No, a vote for Labour is a vote for at least some of the left's policies to be enacted. There's no way in hell the gay marriage referendum goes through without Labour being involved, for example.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 17:14
|
|
|
Quinntan posted:No, a vote for Labour is a vote for at least some of the left's policies to be enacted. There's no way in hell the gay marriage referendum goes through without Labour being involved, for example. Which part of the push for the referendum was specifically championed by Labour against Fine Gael exactly? Actually let me extend that further, what actual left policies where enacted purely based on Labours involvement in government that wouldn't have happened otherwise. lemonadesweetheart fucked around with this message at 17:22 on Feb 29, 2016 |
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 17:19
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 13, 2024 23:41 |
|
|
lemonadesweetheart posted:Which part of the push for the referendum was specifically championed by Labour against Fine Gael exactly? Pretty much all of it. It took a lot of work for FG to come on board with the idea, and even then we had some internal opposition to it. I know for a fact that it took a lot of use of the whip to keep (nearly) everyone in line.
|
|
#
?
Feb 29, 2016 17:35
|
|