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Adar posted:Reminder that Rubio must hit 20% in Texas to get anything Somebody else took that bet while I was putting my kid to sleep but that's probably for the best since I'm already four figures into that market. protip: ARG is probably wrong and the early voters are too big a slice of the electorate, so don't get sucked into big Trump buys that you can't get rid of tomorrow. Adar has issued a correction as of 20:58 on Feb 29, 2016 |
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Feb 29, 2016 20:55
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Narciss posted:Actually the way to win is to assess probabilities more accurately than the people you're betting against. 'Modest' wins can tend to mask a poor strategy for a long time because assuming an event's probabilities are accurately priced, you can easily have a streak of +20% wins when you're betting on outcomes with 80% odds. As opposed to betting the rent money on Bernie winning every state? God I hope you're trolling.
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Feb 29, 2016 20:58
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is there honestly anyone ITT who was buying up texas TRUMP.YES/CRUZ.NO as an actual "train to the station" bet and not as an opportunity to flip off any potential PI fever? S/O to those of you who waited and flipped the other way- the blood in the water was too tempting for me.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:01
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Adar posted:While you're right about this, the way the polling has broken there's no plausible way Rubio picks up > 2 states. If he doesn't, there is a very nasty wrinkle in the delegate allocation rules. I'll PM you the details as I don't want this public. The media have started covering this so I can spill the beans. Rubio is probably screwed on Tuesday because of two very nasty wrinkles Reince et al. threw into their delegate allocation rules. 1)The four largest states (TX/GA/TN/AL) all have 20% thresholds; 2)Congressional district delegates are distributed 2 for 1st place / 1 for 2nd in every state. The first wrinkle comes into play everywhere somebody runs under 20%. Obviously, if Rubio is under 20% in any of these states he's in trouble, but it's almost as bad for him if Cruz is. To take a T35/R25/C20 vs. C19 split as an example, it's the difference between Trump getting 45-55% of the delegates and 65-70% of them. Note that Cruz delegates are almost as good for Rubio as Rubio delegates at this point, because some of the only realistic ways that Rubio wins involve making a deal with him. The second wrinkle is mostly a big deal in Texas, which has 108 congressional delegates (and somewhat in GA which also has 45). Just cutting down the margin of victory does nothing for Rubio; Trump can underperform there and still get almost the same delegate #. On the other hand, there will definitely be many districts in GA where Cruz beats Rubio / TX where Trump beats Rubio. This will cost Cruzbio 2-3 dozen delegates at a minimum. Basically, Rubio does much better in the delegate math if Cruz takes 48 hours longer to flame out than it seems he's currently doing. At the moment it looks like Cruz is failing everywhere but Texas, and the minute he drops under 20% in the rest of the South he takes Rubio down with him. This is, of course, entirely appropriate in GOP2016. --- The last polls in TX (C33/T32/R17), AL (T42/R19/C17) and TN (T40/C22/R19) mean that, if they all hold up, Rubio will get approximately 4-6 delegates out of the 258 that they have combined, Cruz will get approximately 100 and Trump will take the rest. If Cruz underperforms by 1 more point and loses Texas, Rubio will still get 5, Cruz will get 50 delegates and Trump will get 200. Draw your own conclusions.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:05
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Adar posted:delegates This is 100% right and maybe the biggest reason Rubio is in even worse trouble than people think. He needed to surge before today. Unless all the polling is missing late movement towards Rubio, he is going to be facing a severe deficit after tomorrow.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:07
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Yup. The RNC gamed the system to always make sure the establishment candidate outperformed gains in delegates compared to polling performance. But whoops, turns out the baked-in advantages can really gently caress you if you're not the frontrunner. I'm glad I pay attention to various European elections since it makes delegate allocation so much easier to understand.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:11
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railroad terror posted:I've got 547 shares @ .77 in the Trump RNOM market --- can't wait to start flipping those on Tuesday night You and me both, ha ha. Should I put in a sell order now or on Tuesday night? Maybe at 94/95?
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Feb 29, 2016 21:13
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G-Hawk posted:This is 100% right and maybe the biggest reason Rubio is in even worse trouble than people think. He needed to surge before today. Unless all the polling is missing late movement towards Rubio, he is going to be facing a severe deficit after tomorrow. And all the polling we're seeing shows that the Rubio plan to make dick jokes has been very very bad for him.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:15
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Something I just thought of: if/when Trump becomes the inevitable Republican nominee will the Senate allow Obama to appoint a justice? It seems like that could significantly alter their calculus.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:22
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UnoriginalMind posted:You and me both, ha ha. Should I put in a sell order now or on Tuesday night? Maybe at 94/95?
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Feb 29, 2016 21:27
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Someone please call me out if these are wrong Poll closings for Super Tuesday - All times EST 7 PM Alabama Georgia Virginia Vermont 8 PM Massachusetts Minnesota - Caucuses begin Oklahoma Tennessee Texas 8:30 PM Arkansas 9 PM Colorado - Caucuses begin railroad terror has issued a correction as of 21:34 on Feb 29, 2016 |
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Feb 29, 2016 21:27
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Has there been any report on which races will get exit or entrance polls? in the past caucuses often don't and I'm particularly interested in CO and MN
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Feb 29, 2016 21:29
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Colorado is going to keep us all awake, isn't it
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Feb 29, 2016 21:32
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railroad terror posted:Someone please call me out if these are wrong Vermont closes at 7:00. Not a lot on the line in the Dem side, as Bernie is winning by about 80%, but might be interesting to see if Trump over or under performs his polling average
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Feb 29, 2016 21:33
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Thanks, completely forgot about Vermont. I always thought Vermont Repubs were a little less insane. Guess we'll find out.
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Feb 29, 2016 21:38
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Zeta Taskforce posted:I put an offer for 28 and 30 seconds later someone took it. Don't want to be greedy. Maybe, but only if you also leave yourself open to making big wins. That's why buying penny shares for "unlikely" events is a good idea; one win more than makes up for all the whiffs. Politics is much more volatile than people seem to think, and PI traders tend to become locked onto 99% for things that really are not so certain as the deadline approaches. We saw that once again with the polling markets this month. In related news, I'm up 30% today alone 
Fuschia tude has issued a correction as of 22:13 on Feb 29, 2016 |
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Feb 29, 2016 22:09
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New markets:
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Feb 29, 2016 22:46
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Peachstapler posted:New markets: My lowballing never works when markets start.
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Feb 29, 2016 22:49
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Made out alright on that Trump TX bump. Got rid of the .30 Cruz.NOs I bought too early, too. Also! quote:Important Notice
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Feb 29, 2016 23:08
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Fuschia tude posted:Maybe, but only if you also leave yourself open to making big wins. That's why buying penny shares for "unlikely" events is a good idea; one win more than makes up for all the whiffs. Politics is much more volatile than people seem to think, and PI traders tend to become locked onto 99% for things that really are not so certain as the deadline approaches. We saw that once again with the polling markets this month. I'm tempted to bet against market consensus on polls for a month and see if I boom or bust.
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Feb 29, 2016 23:18
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clinton +11 in ma per emerson
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Mar 1, 2016 00:25
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I have 700 shares in Oklahoma split between Bernie YES and Hillary NO with an average of about $0.25. Should I take my 40 cent gains or should I ride that bet through tomorrow?
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Mar 1, 2016 00:56
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Threw together a quick spreadsheet to help understand different scenarios. I think this is most likely: I'm probably not going to be able to do much tomorrow between being busy at work and Predictit crashing so I'm pretty well locked in  Losing Colorado would suck but I think the registration deadline and format will help Hilldawg. User Error has issued a correction as of 01:04 on Mar 1, 2016 |
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Mar 1, 2016 01:00
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New poll of 500 voters shows Clinton +9 in OK http://www.news9.com/story/31347726/...-clinton-in-ok
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Mar 1, 2016 01:09
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Gyges posted:I have 700 shares in Oklahoma split between Bernie YES and Hillary NO with an average of about $0.25. Should I take my 40 cent gains or should I ride that bet through tomorrow? I think Hillary wins tomorrow so I'm biased, but I would sell most if not all. But great buy and great trade.
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Mar 1, 2016 01:10
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pathetic little tramp posted:New poll of 500 voters shows Clinton +9 in OK That's a huge portion of undecideds compared to the one this morning. 29% vs 9%.
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Mar 1, 2016 01:14
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The Sooner poll sucks, but I also have trouble believing that Hillary's polling is increasing everywhere except OK.
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Mar 1, 2016 01:22
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I'd put Oklahoma about 50/50 right now.
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Mar 1, 2016 01:37
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I'm putting big bets on Cruz carrying the south tomorrow and Rubio carrying the midwest/north (Minnesota will be a big upside surprise for him). Trump will probably get the Northeast, but I think tomorrow is going to surprise a lot of people. I'm going to keep my finger on the trigger and close those shares when they spike, then buy equal shares Rubio/Cruz for GOP nominee (assuming I can get in early enough). I'm not sure which way the Cruz/Rubio contest will play out, but they're low enough in the odds right now that I can make a good profit buying both and shorting Trump.
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Mar 1, 2016 02:20
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Zeta Taskforce posted:As opposed to betting the rent money on Bernie winning every state? God I hope you're trolling. He's correct. The downside of sure-thing low-payoff bets is that when they go against you, they go against you hard. If you are not evaluating the probabilities there better than the market does, that black swan event is going to wreck your poo poo once it finally happens.
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Mar 1, 2016 02:33
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 I need to learn when to hold em ._.
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Mar 1, 2016 02:34
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Flavahbeast posted:
I had 800 shares at an average of 14 cents and cashed them in yesterday. lol I've made about $100 on oklahoma playing movement today though so thats something
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Mar 1, 2016 02:40
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If there are more than a few hours left in any market, it's worth it to not panic. These markets are way too volatile to ever have to sell at lows unless the writing is on the wall.
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Mar 1, 2016 02:41
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evilweasel posted:He's correct. The downside of sure-thing low-payoff bets is that when they go against you, they go against you hard. If you are not evaluating the probabilities there better than the market does, that black swan event is going to wreck your poo poo once it finally happens. Yeah, I really don’t like putting a lot on the line for marginal gains. I’ll do it for something like “Will turnout in the South Carolina Democratic primary exceed 22%?” after looking at the raw data and seeing not a single precinct anywhere close. Risking $100 for a $0.90 gain on something like “Will Rand Paul participate in the debate?”? If take that bet 100 times, I strongly suspect I’ll lose more than once. e: OBAMA.IMPCH is the dumbest market. I understand buying “YES”, even if I think it has negative expected value, but who says “I want to tie up my money all year for a 1% gain if I’m right, and if I’m wrong I lose everything”? If you really, really want to get in on that market, the way to do it is to wait till the last moment people are still willing to sell you “NO”. Platystemon has issued a correction as of 02:55 on Mar 1, 2016 |
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Mar 1, 2016 02:49
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evilweasel posted:He's correct. The downside of sure-thing low-payoff bets is that when they go against you, they go against you hard. If you are not evaluating the probabilities there better than the market does, that black swan event is going to wreck your poo poo once it finally happens. That wasn't what I was saying. First, after some early losses when that exact thing happened, I decided that I would never take a large enough position on anything where something would wipe me out. My point was more that if I am sitting on a profit I will take it rather than hold out for more. Every situation is different. Was it a short term fluctuation or based on genuine new information? I have missed out on some gains and have not always sold at the peak, but more often than not it has allowed me to lock in something. As an example I was buying up cheap Kasich in VT, MN and MA before New Hampshire on the expectation that a victory there would help him in the more moderate northern and mid western states. At one point I had about 2500 shares at 3 cents. It got frothy and some of the markets peaked at 25. But I was selling chunks at 10, 15, 20 and the when I could see that it had peaked I started dumping the rest. I ended up selling the last at 5 or 6 cents, but I sold about 3/4 of them on the way up. I would have done better had I not sold the first bunch so low, but I did a lot better than thinking the momentum would go on forever, never selling at any price. I started out with $500, lost half of it the first month. I never deposited any more money and now I have $1700. I will have more if Hillary wins Oklahoma, but either way I'm not wiped out.
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Mar 1, 2016 02:55
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Who else here is holding Cruz YES in Texas? ... and what's your plan?
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Mar 1, 2016 03:53
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Peachstapler posted:Who else here is holding Cruz YES in Texas? Yep, holding 40 shares at an average price of 75¢. Gonna hold them all the way to the payout, because I'm still completely convinced he'll pull things off here.
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Mar 1, 2016 03:57
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Peachstapler posted:Who else here is holding Cruz YES in Texas? that seems like the unsafest market in the world right now. i really don't know what to think of early votes vs trump surge
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Mar 1, 2016 03:58
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My plan for tomorrow is to not open Predictit at all and let my bets stand until around 8:30pm. Then I'm going to sell any Trump YES in TX I still have and buy hopefully cheap Cruz YES TX, drink a beer and let it all ride. My reading of the election is Trump is winning everything but Texas and Hillary is winning everything but Vermont and maybe Oklahoma.
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Mar 1, 2016 04:03
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Peachstapler posted:Who else here is holding Cruz YES in Texas? Still have about 130 shares left of the 800 I bought yesterday. Going to sell them between 7 and 8 eastern time no matter what price I get. I'm monitoring Oklahoma. I'm in deeper than I want to be for Hillary so I'm a seller on any spike. I'm going to decide Minnesota based on how muchTrump overperforms or underperforms in MA and VT
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Mar 1, 2016 04:17
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