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Abel Wingnut posted:that seems like the unsafest market in the world right now. i really don't know what to think of early votes vs trump surge Cruz will probably win Texas. Poll averaging, campaign infrastructure advantages, etc. point to a Cruz win.
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Mar 1, 2016 04:19
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Still have about 130 shares left of the 800 I bought yesterday. Going to sell them between 7 and 8 eastern time no matter what price I get. I'm monitoring Oklahoma. I'm in deeper than I want to be for Hillary so I'm a seller on any spike. I'm going to decide Minnesota based on how muchTrump overperforms or underperforms in MA and VT I'm even more bullish on Trump right now (outside of Texas, where over half the votes have already been cast in early voting). On Sunday you had every racist in the county sit down and watch the Oscars, where lots of racism got called out (and called out on people far more liberal than your regular Republican primary voter). Trump has the racist vote cornered, and I have a feeling a lot of the #AllLivesMatter crowd is gonna pull out their Trump votes Tuesday to stick a finger in the eye of all this racism talk they've had to listen to.
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Mar 1, 2016 04:24
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Vox Nihili posted:Cruz will probably win Texas. Poll averaging, campaign infrastructure advantages, etc. point to a Cruz win. You're right, but the key to upsets is always late deciders. Ya never know with ole Trumpy boy..
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Mar 1, 2016 04:30
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what is the best way to request a market? I emailed support this morning requesting 3 new markets, and have heard 0 response. We obviously need a Trump debate market asap.
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Mar 1, 2016 04:45
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Fivethirtyeight is telling me Bernie is going to win Minnesota. Thoughts?
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Mar 1, 2016 04:47
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Arkane posted:what is the best way to request a market? https://predictit.freshdesk.com/support/discussions/forums/5000219262 I don't know how much they listen to what's suggested though.
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Mar 1, 2016 04:50
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SHINEBLOCKA posted:Fivethirtyeight is telling me Bernie is going to win Minnesota. Thoughts? Line up some guarenteed bets on other states (i.e that Hillary will win them, and that bernie wins vermont) and just take your pick for Minnesota. You should at least cover most of your losses with the minor gains on the sure bets.
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Mar 1, 2016 04:59
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e: this isn't the better call saul thread!
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Mar 1, 2016 05:05
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e_angst posted:I'm even more bullish on Trump right now (outside of Texas, where over half the votes have already been cast in early voting). On Sunday you had every racist in the county sit down and watch the Oscars, where lots of racism got called out (and called out on people far more liberal than your regular Republican primary voter). Trump has the racist vote cornered, and I have a feeling a lot of the #AllLivesMatter crowd is gonna pull out their Trump votes Tuesday to stick a finger in the eye of all this racism talk they've had to listen to. Bullshit they watched the Oscars. Nobody watches the Oscars, least of all Trump loving racists looking for validation from Hollywood.
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Mar 1, 2016 05:06
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Vox Nihili posted:Cruz will probably win Texas. Poll averaging, campaign infrastructure advantages, etc. point to a Cruz win. I just doubled down.
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Mar 1, 2016 05:19
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going to be real mad if bernie beats clinton in MA real, real mad
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Mar 1, 2016 05:26
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Gyges posted:Bullshit they watched the Oscars. Nobody watches the Oscars, least of all Trump loving racists looking for validation from Hollywood. Okay, even if they didn't watch the broadcast directly, they saw plenty of Facebook posts about it today, all done through their terrible filter bubble.
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Mar 1, 2016 05:28
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Abel Wingnut posted:going to be real mad if bernie beats clinton in MA I will too, but I'm still going to vote for him
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Mar 1, 2016 05:30
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railroad terror posted:Someone please call me out if these are wrong What about Alaska?
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Mar 1, 2016 05:40
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FourLeaf posted:What about Alaska? edit: Apparently some of the outlying islands are Hawaiian time, not sure how this affects the results. StevePerry has issued a correction as of 05:48 on Mar 1, 2016 |
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Mar 1, 2016 05:42
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Peachstapler posted:Early voting, too. Over the 11-day early voting period, a total of 1,107,607 Texans (making up 12% of registered voters) cast ballots. A little over 658,000 voted Republican. In any other state this would benefit Trump the most, but Cruz is the front runner here and the consensus is early voting's going to help him out a lot tomorrow. FWIW it is actually more than that, those stats are only among the 15 largest counties. If you project the same turnout rate onto the overall electorate it is likely more like 1.6 million votes so far, and 900k-1m Republican votes so far.
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Mar 1, 2016 05:50
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G-Hawk posted:FWIW it is actually more than that, those stats are only among the 15 largest counties. If you project the same turnout rate onto the overall electorate it is likely more like 1.6 million votes so far, and 900k-1m Republican votes so far.
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Mar 1, 2016 05:52
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how long does it take predictit to cash out a market? i haven't stayed in until the end of one yet
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Mar 1, 2016 06:03
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Abel Wingnut posted:how long does it take predictit to cash out a market? i haven't stayed in until the end of one yet Anywhere from 30 minutes to 1 week. Usually a day or so, though.
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Mar 1, 2016 06:05
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G-Hawk posted:FWIW it is actually more than that, those stats are only among the 15 largest counties. If you project the same turnout rate onto the overall electorate it is likely more like 1.6 million votes so far, and 900k-1m Republican votes so far.
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Mar 1, 2016 06:38
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Texas is going to have a huge loving turnout. I think that's the first time I've ever entertained that thought. I'm incredibly interested how my county (Williamson, deep reactionary suburb of Austin) votes. I think Cruz wins it, we're Respectable People here. Trump wins a few East Texas congressional districts, book it.
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Mar 1, 2016 06:51
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i'm fantasizing about poring over county-level maps tomorrow is going to be so much fun
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Mar 1, 2016 06:53
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I still have 500 shares of Trump No Minnesota I could probably sell at a profit of 8c a share. Or I could make $350. Someone convince me to sell.
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Mar 1, 2016 06:54
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Vox Nihili posted:I still have 500 shares of Trump No Minnesota I could probably sell at a profit of 8c a share. Or I could make $350. Someone convince me to sell. Sell or you're on the opposite side of my single largest market. 
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Mar 1, 2016 07:01
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Looks like some last-minute Survey Monkey polls are in
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Mar 1, 2016 07:03
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Help me I can't stop buying Trump Rnom shares.
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Mar 1, 2016 07:08
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What's the most widely-held market? TrumpNOM has roughly ~$340,000 tied up in it.
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Mar 1, 2016 07:14
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OK the price just dipped a bit for Trump in Vermont and a LOT for Trump in Alaska. I need to stop refreshing and go to bed before I panic sell.
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Mar 1, 2016 08:48
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Vox Nihili posted:Looks like some last-minute Survey Monkey polls are in wow why on earth is trump YES only going for 72c in AR still... It never made any sense to me that he'd lose there, especially given his biggest competition is Cruz, who has been sliding, while Rubio has been gaining nationally - if anything I guess those two cannibalize the "not-trump" vote
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Mar 1, 2016 08:54
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thethreeman posted:wow why on earth is trump YES only going for 72c in AR still... It never made any sense to me that he'd lose there, especially given his biggest competition is Cruz, who has been sliding, while Rubio has been gaining nationally - if anything I guess those two cannibalize the "not-trump" vote No polls on RCP except the one from 3 days after Iowa where Cruz was up. Like I posted earlier, I got $1,500 worth at 60 cents by waiting around and refilling my own sell orders for a week.
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Mar 1, 2016 10:10
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If Trump doesn't sweep everything but Texas I'm hosed.
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Mar 1, 2016 12:55
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is huffpo's surveymonkey worth a drat? i'm wary of any online poll, even if they've performed well. i don't see how they don't skew to a younger population
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Mar 1, 2016 14:27
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Same, re: Trump YES in MN. I'll be using whether or not MA/VT get called right out of the gate to decide whether I'm holding or not.
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Mar 1, 2016 14:42
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Seems like that super-early exit polling data is pushing my Hillary winning Oklahoma shares up 45%. Debating if I really think she'll pull it off or if I should cash out now.
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Mar 1, 2016 16:09
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e_angst posted:Seems like that super-early exit polling data is pushing my Hillary winning Oklahoma shares up 45%. Debating if I really think she'll pull it off or if I should cash out now. I think it'll definitely settle where it's at until we get early results or exit polls, so if you feel like those could tip it back, that's a pretty sweet profit.
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Mar 1, 2016 16:11
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e_angst posted:Seems like that super-early exit polling data is pushing my Hillary winning Oklahoma shares up 45%. Debating if I really think she'll pull it off or if I should cash out now. No one ever went broke taking safe gains..
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Mar 1, 2016 16:14
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Concerned Citizen posted:No one ever went broke taking safe gains..
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Mar 1, 2016 16:15
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gently caress SAFE GAINS!!!!!!!!!
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Mar 1, 2016 16:16
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gently caress EM
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Mar 1, 2016 16:17
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It's true, do you wanna have Shawn Michaels arms or SCOTT STEINER BIG POPPA PUMP ARMS
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Mar 1, 2016 16:17
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