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Trump rallying in KS a bit 
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Mar 4, 2016 19:53
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Sylink posted:So are these bets literally as simple as staring at something that is split 80%/20% then taking the obvious choice of 80% and reaping the rewards from morons? Most of the time. You have to be wary of black swan events that wipe you out. Almost all of us started with this strategy until it inevitably bit us. The winning strategy is to hold off from betting until a media frenzy drives some hype causing markets to lose rationality. That's when you buy in and then cash out once people come to their senses. This week's example of this was the Romney.Run market. edit: However your overall sentiment is correct. This site is ez money as long as you don't let emotions get a hold of you and you don't get greedy.
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Mar 4, 2016 20:00
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https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitZjBsU0tIVEY2ZGM/view New Kansas Poll, Trump 35 Cruz 29 Rubio 17 well then
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Mar 4, 2016 20:02
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Buy both sides low when you can. Flip them high, get out of the markets that seem to be lost causes once the results roll out ASAP for minor losses. That's been my always 100% work strategy (with which I could have made a lot more but sometimes I got greedy and held so I hosed up. Don't hold. Just flip for profits forever.)
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Mar 4, 2016 20:02
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NYT map pretty wrong so far.
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Mar 4, 2016 20:08
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G-Hawk posted:https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B4lhKxf9pMitZjBsU0tIVEY2ZGM/view Eh, gently caress it. Rubio NO is at 95 so I'll just sell it and use the money for something else. Free it up for when results come out.
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Mar 4, 2016 20:13
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Goddamnit just let me sell ROMNEY.RUN.NO. The YES keeps floating on fumes of hope, and now I'm seeing folks on facebook posting clickbait that suggests Romney watched last night's debate is now on the verge of sighing / drawing his katana and wading in to that blood and poo poo-smeared cagematch that is the GOP primary. If he actually does make a halfhearted foray into this election just to ride a media wave, sell some merch and flame out in the polls, all so that I lose some money, I'm gonna take it a little bit personally.
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Mar 4, 2016 20:16
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Bhaal posted:Goddamnit just let me sell ROMNEY.RUN.NO. The YES keeps floating on fumes of hope, and now I'm seeing folks on facebook posting clickbait that suggests Romney watched last night's debate is now on the verge of sighing / drawing his katana and wading in to that blood and poo poo-smeared cagematch that is the GOP primary. We're in this for the long haul but our money is safe: http://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/271764-romney-i-simply-had-to-speak-out-on-trump edit: I imagine it won't take this market to go back to normal. Reality will re-assert itself as Trump sweeps up more states and the possibility of a contested convention becomes even less likely.
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Mar 4, 2016 20:19
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you know you're talking about an election with Donald Trump as the Republican frontrunner, who also defended the size of his dick in a debate last night, right I mean, yeah, you're almost certainly right, but lol @ "reality re-asserting itself"
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Mar 4, 2016 20:26
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I won't be around for Kansas to actively manage it during the caucus, but count me as on Team Kasich!
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Mar 4, 2016 20:55
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Concerned Citizen posted:I won't be around for Kansas to actively manage it during the caucus, but count me as on Team Kasich! Riding the 1%. (538 finally put up a prediction for the Kansas Republican caucus... - http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/primary-forecast/kansas-republican/ ) EDIT: I had some Hillary Kansas Yes shares I managed to sell at break-even price. Just a little too anxious to make that level of bet. I still hold a few bucks in Bernie Kansas No, but I don't expect that money to do anything. e_angst has issued a correction as of 20:59 on Mar 4, 2016 |
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Mar 4, 2016 20:57
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Poll closing times for tomorrow are gonna be staggered and make predictit fun. Here is a summary as best as I can tell for tomorrow: Kansas GOP: 11 am - 3 pm EST caucuses Kansas DEM: 4 pm EST caucuses Nebraska DEM:  Insane crazy bullshit with varying caucus times depending on county. The times vary from 11 am EST to 9 pm EST. Unclear to what extent we may get results throughout the day, possible we at least get reports on twitter. (Anyone know on this?) Also, you can caucus absentee. Kentucky GOP: 10 pm - 4 pm Local Time (Some will be 4 EST, Some 5 EST) Maine GOP: Varies, latest seems to be 7 pm est. Could be similar situation as Nebraska. Louisiana DEM/GOP: Polls close at 9 pm EST
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Mar 4, 2016 21:02
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C7ty1 posted:you know you're talking about an election with Donald Trump as the Republican frontrunner, who also defended the size of his dick in a debate last night, right Trump gets to dictate reality and that reality certainly doesn't include Mittens
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Mar 4, 2016 21:16
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Necc0 posted:Trump gets to dictate reality and that reality certainly doesn't include Mittens I agree. But I think the odds of a contested convention are way higher than any of us thought possible going into this election.
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Mar 4, 2016 21:31
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G-Hawk posted:Nebraska DEM: Nebraska's largest county (Douglas, with 29% of the state's population) caucuses at 11 AM Eastern, so a large share of the results should come in fairly early in the day.The final results might look very different than the early numbers, though: the second largest county (Lancaster, with 16% of the population) doesn't caucus until 7 PM Eastern. Note that Lancaster is home to the University of Nebraska so it's going to be one of Bernie's best counties in the state.
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Mar 4, 2016 22:04
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FourLeaf posted:They've got Rubio winning Kansas? Really? Should I sell my NO shares now while I can still get a profit off them? Latest poll makes it look like a two horse race in Kansas so I think Rubio No is pretty safe.
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Mar 4, 2016 22:20
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New markets up. All polling, approval, etc. but also with... "Will the margin of victory in the Louisiana Republican primary exceed 15 percentage points?"
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Mar 4, 2016 22:28
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Concerned Citizen posted:You can do that, but you're risking 100% of your bet for a 20% gain. In general, always betting on the "sure thing" is a bad strategy. If you had bet on Trump winning Alaska, which was heavily favored by PredictIt, you'd basically be out your entire investment right now. 
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Mar 5, 2016 03:13
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GWBBQ posted:I only lost 3/4 of my money on Trump in Alaska Sorry buddy. But we got this!!!
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Mar 5, 2016 05:09
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a cop posted:Trump rallying in KS a bit I bought in on Cruz during that rally. 
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Mar 5, 2016 05:41
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Mar 5, 2016 07:30
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FYI Cruz is overpriced on Predictit. Compared to overall market wisdom and my own personal opinion.
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Mar 5, 2016 07:31
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Jewel Repetition posted:FYI Cruz is overpriced on Predictit. Compared to overall market wisdom and my own personal opinion. He's done really well in caucuses in conservative/rural states so far, outperforming his polling by, well, by varying amounts but generally quite a bit.
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Mar 5, 2016 08:34
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Vox Nihili posted:He's done really well in caucuses in conservative/rural states so far, outperforming his polling by, well, by varying amounts but generally quite a bit. Not even going to venture any guesses on the Kansas GOP contest. I'm just waiting for the fat Louisiana payout (and thanking the doubters who put Trump's win there all the way down to $0.84 when I bought in).
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Mar 5, 2016 14:57
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Yeah, I don't imagine myself trying to gently caress with KS or KY today ---- I'll ride the 12% wave in LA, though. e: Taking 20 shares of Kasich at 16 cents too in ME railroad terror has issued a correction as of 16:54 on Mar 5, 2016 |
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Mar 5, 2016 15:47
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e_angst posted:Anyone have any opinions on Enda Kenny in Ireland? that's been a steady easy money maker for me because the price bounces back and forth fairly consistently i buy around 45-50 and sell around 65, this seems to cycle like every 24-48 hours i don't know a single thing about irish politics i just work with the graphs and downloadable data sets
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Mar 5, 2016 16:54
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If you have free money, the NE caucuses appear (based on twitter reports of results) to be moving heavily toward Bernie. 10 cent profit on Nebraska Dem right now.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:30
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Hillary nomination is down to 85. At what point will people accept that this is mathematically inevitable?Concerned Citizen posted:If you have free money, the NE caucuses appear (based on twitter reports of results) to be moving heavily toward Bernie. 10 cent profit on Nebraska Dem right now. I got berned betting against him in OK and MN Super Tuesday and I gave my Massachusetts YES shares away for about 1/5 the price had I waited until the voting started. I don't trust my judgement anymore in the Dem races. However Trump winning Louisiana seems more likely for the same price. Zeta Taskforce has issued a correction as of 18:42 on Mar 5, 2016 |
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Mar 5, 2016 18:32
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Trump Nom very predictably spiking on Betfair. If Trump wins three states this should hit 1.4 (-250). If he sweeps, 1.35 (-285) or better.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:46
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Adar posted:Trump Nom very predictably spiking on Betfair. If Trump wins three states this should hit 1.4 (-250). If he sweeps, 1.35 (-285) or better. Still open at .67 on PI for no goddamn reason whatsoever. Rubio and Kasich NOMs are now trading at the same price for the first time.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:53
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Aliquid posted:Still open at .67 on PI for no goddamn reason whatsoever. This is madness. Also, I desperately want to go into the future and read the research papers that end up coming out of the data Victoria University collects from PI in this election cycle.
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Mar 5, 2016 18:55
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Aliquid posted:Still open at .67 on PI for no goddamn reason whatsoever. its the same price on betfair (67.5%) as predictit (67%)
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Mar 5, 2016 18:57
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Concerned Citizen posted:If you have free money, the NE caucuses appear (based on twitter reports of results) to be moving heavily toward Bernie. 10 cent profit on Nebraska Dem right now. echoing this, not a sure thing but the twitter results reports sound like a bernie landslide
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Mar 5, 2016 19:04
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Zeta Taskforce posted:Hillary nomination is down to 85. At what point will people accept that this is mathematically inevitable? The party line is that superdelegates never go against the will of the people, so they'll all switch to Bernie at the convention when inevitably the American people something something.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:08
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Aliquid posted:Still open at .67 on PI for no goddamn reason whatsoever. You're losing money too, huh?
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Mar 5, 2016 19:12
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Arkane posted:its the same price on betfair (67.5%) as predictit (67%) Kasich is still 17/1 and Rubio 8/1 on Betfair, though. no idea what a fair line for either should be. I guess if I start with Trump being somewhere around 90% and give Cruz 2%, maybe R3%/K5%? Because I think Rubio loses FL over 90% of the time at this point actually, is it even realistically possible for Rubio to win the state under any circumstances if 20% of the vote is in with him down 20 points, because that's basically why Cruz won Texas by those margins Adar has issued a correction as of 19:29 on Mar 5, 2016 |
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Mar 5, 2016 19:15
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Anyone have any thoughts on the Louisiana by over 15% market? Buying Trump Trumping at sub 40 is mighty tempting.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:39
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Adar posted:no idea what a fair line for either should be. I guess if I start with Trump being somewhere around 90% and give Cruz 2%, maybe R3%/K5%? Because I think Rubio loses FL over 90% of the time at this point i think you put too much credence in things staying the same
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Mar 5, 2016 19:48
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What's going on in Maine with Cruz?
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Mar 5, 2016 19:51
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Zeta Taskforce posted:What's going on in Maine with Cruz? He won the first precinct big. Unclear if its just an outlier.
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Mar 5, 2016 19:55
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