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Trump in Mississippi is at 90c, and the election's tomorrow. Is there any reason I shouldn't buy a lot?
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Mar 7, 2016 10:52
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platzapS posted:Trump in Mississippi is at 90c, and the election's tomorrow. Is there any reason I shouldn't buy a lot? I would buy at 80-85. 90's on the border.
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Mar 7, 2016 11:26
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The guy at predictit must be sleeping hard as they have not resolved the Maine dem caucus results yet.
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Mar 7, 2016 11:32
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platzapS posted:Trump in Mississippi is at 90c, and the election's tomorrow. Is there any reason I shouldn't buy a lot? I've expressed misgivings in other states, but I think Mississippi for Trump is about as safe as it gets.
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Mar 7, 2016 11:42
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Hillary yes/ Bernie no in Michigan tomorrow is still in the low 90's, despite every single poll giving Hillary a double-digit lead. Not a bad return for a 99% sure thing. https://www.predictit.org/Market/1934/Who-will-win-the-Michigan-Democratic-primary
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Mar 7, 2016 11:55
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JohnnyPalace posted:Hillary yes/ Bernie no in Michigan tomorrow is still in the low 90's, despite every single poll giving Hillary a double-digit lead. Not a bad return for a 99% sure thing.
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Mar 7, 2016 12:12
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Nm
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Mar 7, 2016 12:58
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I keep waxwing on bailing on Missouri and thinking that everyone else is crazy I'm definitely leaning on the "it's a racist shithole" basis though
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Mar 7, 2016 14:36
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It is but I've yet to encounter a real Trump supporter here. Given I don't hang around the known KKK areas. The waspy St Charles County types I know don't like Trump but they're pretty divided between the not-Trumps.
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Mar 7, 2016 15:36
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JohnnyPalace posted:Hillary yes/ Bernie no in Michigan tomorrow is still in the low 90's, despite every single poll giving Hillary a double-digit lead. Not a bad return for a 99% sure thing. This and the universities are on spring break which Bernie heavily relies on.
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Mar 7, 2016 16:36
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Use at your own risk but new polling suggests Trump and Sanders may be favored in Idaho: http://idahopoliticsweekly.com/politics/905-poll-trump-leads-in-idaho-ahead-of-tuesday-s-primary Daniel Bryan has issued a correction as of 17:05 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 17:00
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Daniel Bryan posted:Use at your own risk but new polling suggests Trump and Sanders may be favored in Idaho: Idaho probably going to go the way of Kansas, Oklahoma, etc. Cruz & Sanders.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:02
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I just made an account last night. I am in on Trump Yes in ID, MO, and FL. I feel these primary systems favor him more than the caucuses.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:18
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L-Boned posted:I just made an account last night.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:20
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Peachstapler posted:You are brave to play with ID and MO. Good luck friend. I am not necessarily going to stay to the end. Trump fluctuates a lot, so I will probably get out on a bump. I live in MO. The general consensus seems to be that many independents are going Trump. I got in on (18, ID) (39, MO) and (78, FL). I think the FL is pretty safe from everything I have seen. L-Boned has issued a correction as of 17:24 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 17:22
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I'm loading up big on Sanders in Michigan, I'm expecting a possible upset with the black population in Detroit after his stellar debate performance last night: https://twitter.com/AP_Politics/status/706673150772322304 These are issues I don't see HRC confronting, and I think now is the time where it finally bites her in the rear end. I'm ready to profit off of it. 
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Mar 7, 2016 17:30
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Narciss posted:I'm loading up big on Sanders in Michigan, I'm expecting a possible upset with the black population in Detroit after his stellar debate performance last night: A much braver person you are than I. I hope it's not too much money.
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Mar 7, 2016 17:33
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I like Cruz NO in Idaho right now. He may win it, but 75% chance? The only (not great) poll isnt good for him, it is an open primary. Rubio has been active there and on TV there. Trump will get his. Seems like a decent gamble. Also in Trump Missouri
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Mar 7, 2016 17:55
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Kasich at 12 in Michigan? News cycle and those new polls gonna get these schlubs to have it at 20 by tomorrow morning
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Mar 7, 2016 17:58
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G-Hawk posted:I like Cruz NO in Idaho right now. He may win it, but 75% chance? The only (not great) poll isnt good for him, it is an open primary. Rubio has been active there and on TV there. Trump will get his. Seems like a decent gamble. The Idaho GOP primary is closed. Edit: Actually I may have read something misleading. Sites have the primary listed as "Closed" but there might actually be same-day registration. Edit2: Yeah it allows same-day registration. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 18:11 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 18:05
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Vox Nihili posted:The Idaho GOP primary is closed and registration ended in December. Independents can vote. Just not Democrats.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:06
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Vox Nihili posted:The Idaho GOP primary is closed. I read the same thing before. But yeah, same day reg makes it more effectively function like an open primary. I lean towards Cruz having an advantage there, but a slim one. Also, these Michigan polls are mixed but there does seem to be some Kasichmentum. Took a flyer on Kasich at 12 cents.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:12
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It's odd that there was a big to-do about having closed primaries but they still allow same-day registration. Good news for Trump, anyway.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:13
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Closed just means you have to be a registered Republican or Democrat to vote. It doesn't have anything to do with when you can change that registration. It's a weird distinction that's confusing.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:15
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Daniel Bryan posted:Closed just means you have to be a registered Republican or Democrat to vote. It doesn't have anything to do with when you can change that registration. It's a weird distinction that's confusing. There are varying definitions and also semi-closed. But as far as I'm concerned, what matters is if a person who is not a registered republican(or Democrat) can vote on election day. And further, if someone not registered can vote. The more difficult it is for someone who is not a long time registered republican to vote, the worst for Trump, and vice versa.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:17
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I'm trying to understand why Kasich NO is so undervalued in Ohio. He hasn't led in a single poll there, has he? I mean, it's his home state, but he has zero momentum, no states, I just don't see Ohioans wanting to throw their vote away on a man who is guaranteed to lose.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:22
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pathetic little tramp posted:I'm trying to understand why Kasich NO is so undervalued in Ohio. He hasn't led in a single poll there, has he? I mean, it's his home state, but he has zero momentum, no states, I just don't see Ohioans wanting to throw their vote away on a man who is guaranteed to lose. He's been polling well elsewhere recently, and there's a real or perceived Trump slump. That's about it.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:24
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Trump has been underperforming his polls for about a week now. Kasich is the pretty popular governor of Ohio. I think that's what's making people shaky about Trump. He appears to be on a down swing.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:27
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Idaho GOP market has been very swingy today. Trump No was as low as 61c and as high as 78c. Made $40 and got out. I think Cruz is the favorite (despite the effectively open primary) but not at these prices.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:41
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By the way, for all those rent-seeking cowards trying to earn nothing more than reasonable interest on your corporate megabux, Rubio No in Idaho is available at 95c. Rubio will not be winning Idaho.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:51
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Vox Nihili posted:By the way, for all those rent-seeking cowards trying to earn nothing more than reasonable interest on your corporate megabux, Rubio No in Idaho is available at 95c. Rubio will not be winning Idaho.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:53
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Ha, I sold my Rubio Michigan NO shares last week at a nice profit 83 to 95, today there aren't any NO shares available.
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Mar 7, 2016 18:54
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Vox Nihili posted:By the way, for all those rent-seeking cowards trying to earn nothing more than reasonable interest on your corporate megabux, Rubio No in Idaho is available at 95c. Rubio will not be winning Idaho. Come on, max out on MO you pussies! DO it!!!
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Mar 7, 2016 18:58
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The Enda Kenny market is getting Romney-Run levels of annoying. His chances are razor-thin, but the market still has him at 50%. I basically have to wait until Thursday when he doesn't make it to actually get cashed out on this. EDIT: The market is also crazy-thin and spread out, with the lowest buy available being 50 shares at $0.57, and the highest sell available being 27 shares at $0.49. e_angst has issued a correction as of 19:03 on Mar 7, 2016 |
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Mar 7, 2016 18:59
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Vox Nihili posted:By the way, for all those rent-seeking cowards trying to earn nothing more than reasonable interest on your corporate megabux, Rubio No in Idaho is available at 95c. Rubio will not be winning Idaho. Cruz no is cheaper in Michigan and Florida
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Mar 7, 2016 19:05
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Mississippi at 89 seems like free money. The eastern precincts in LA swung heavily Trump.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:09
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Oiled and Ready posted:Kasich at 12 in Michigan? News cycle and those new polls gonna get these schlubs to have it at 20 by tomorrow morning https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/706881266264743937
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Mar 7, 2016 19:12
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L-Boned posted:Mississippi at 89 seems like free money. The eastern precincts in LA swung heavily Trump.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:16
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Add this to the ARG poll, the KS results, the ME results, and the Louisiana E-day v early vote and there is a moderate amount of evidence that Trump started falling at the end of last week. Not conclusive at all but worth considering with any bets right now.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:19
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Hey predictit maybe you should close the Maine dem caucus market already.
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Mar 7, 2016 19:36
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