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Hollismason posted:This is great news overall though for Trump. Him winning big in Mi was great too. I think he biggest news was Kasich's flop (which is good news for Trump). He underperformed expectations. If tonight gets Rubio out of the race though the long term winner is Cruz.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:28
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oystertoadfish posted:greenpapers is estimating 19-13 cruz-trump as far as idaho delegates go, so that's not such a big dent in the end. minor narrative boost for the wax golem The biggest thing is Rubio getting shut out before Hawaii. What a mess. What a waste. What a big, fat mistake.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:28
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Bernice Anders posted:Can't blame 538 for this one when every poll was wrong. That's what polls-plus was for: to compensate for the shortcomings of polls.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:28
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Harlock posted:Lyin Ted told Hawaii voters Rubio dropped out Shots fired.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:28
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Rubio has to win Hawaii to keep the 'Minnesota + islands' coalition going strong
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Mar 9, 2016 06:29
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I dont like this ted cruz guy
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Mar 9, 2016 06:29
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Bernice Anders posted:Can't blame 538 for this one when every poll was wrong. You can blame them for the mealymouthed poo poo they're writing about "gut feelings" in hindsight, on what is supposed to be a data-driven analysis. Yeah, the data were wrong, but they also clearly weighted the data incorrectly. The right response is "yep, we were way wrong, along with everyone else; let's look at why!" instead of trying hopelessly to save face.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:29
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SNAKES N CAKES posted:That's what polls-plus was for: to compensate for the shortcomings of polls. The worst part about this is every single poll from now until the general election is going to have 50% of people saying 'but look at Michigan'
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Mar 9, 2016 06:29
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HyperPuma posted:got a call earlier today from my grandma in MI saying that everyone in the family was voting bernie 
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Mar 9, 2016 06:29
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Trumpland = NE, Rustbelt, SE. Trump's only chance in Idaho was if Rubio/Cruz split the Jesus/Space Jesus vote.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:30
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Mitt Romney posted:The worst part about this is every single poll from now until the general election is going to have 50% of people saying 'but look at Michigan' b-b-but bernie won by a margin of a statistical tie so
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Mar 9, 2016 06:31
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Slate Action posted:Rubio has to win Hawaii to keep the 'Minnesota + islands' coalition going strong i wonder if the islands rubio wins have enough surface area to cover minnesota's lakes
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Mar 9, 2016 06:31
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i need to find another tweet for nonsense to put in the bernie thread...
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Mar 9, 2016 06:32
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HiHo ChiRho posted:b-b-but bernie won by a margin of a statistical tie so 
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Mar 9, 2016 06:32
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RedQueen posted:Did you mean to post this instead Well, yea, that goes without saying.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:32
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Montasque posted:Trumpland = NE, Rustbelt, SE. You don't think he can take California?
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Mar 9, 2016 06:32
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Bernice Anders posted:It's A. CNN already has 9 delegates to Trump. I wouldn't necessarily take what CNN says as gospel when it comes to intricate delegate math.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:32
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Harlock posted:Lyin Ted told Hawaii voters Rubio dropped out Hey, now, it's not Ted's fault. All that happened was some random people on his campaign team sent around some messages that his opponent was dropping out based on a CNN report that didn't actually say the candidate was dropping out but merely speculated on its possibility. There's no ill intent or pattern there. It's just coincidence that it's the exact same thing that happened with Carson in Iowa. Everyone's just mean to Ted. He'd never play dirty. Haven't you seen him pray?
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Mar 9, 2016 06:33
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Mitt Romney posted:The worst part about this is every single poll from now until the general election is going to have 50% of people saying 'but look at Michigan' No that's the best part.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:33
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I've gotta say, while a lot of the 538 bashing is on point, Dave Wasserman's delegate tracker is invaluable. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/election-2016/delegate-targets/republicans/ Wasserman is a really good numbers guy. It'll be interesting to see when tonight's delegate counts are put in. Trump's outperformed his targets in MS and ID and matched his target in MI tonight, for those keeping track. Cruz outperformed in ID and underperformed in MS and MI. Rubio got goose-egged in all three.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:34
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Bernice Anders posted:No that's the best part. It's going to be the 2012 unskewing on steroids
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Mar 9, 2016 06:34
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Mar 9, 2016 06:35
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The Bernie baby died before he could see tonight...
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Mar 9, 2016 06:35
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STAC Goat posted:Hey, now, it's not Ted's fault. All that happened was some random people on his campaign team sent around some messages that his opponent was dropping out based on a CNN report that didn't actually say the candidate was dropping out but merely speculated on its possibility. There's no ill intent or pattern there. It's just coincidence that it's the exact same thing that happened with Carson in Iowa.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:35
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Mitt Romney posted:It's going to be the 2012 unskewing on steroids unskew deez nuts bitch!!
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Mar 9, 2016 06:36
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Nanomashoes posted:The Bernie baby died before he could see tonight... do I dare ask what this is?
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Mar 9, 2016 06:36
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oystertoadfish posted:i wonder if the islands rubio wins have enough surface area to cover minnesota's lakes i guess i could add up the surface area in this list and then see if it's bigger than PR+w/e but gently caress that. buttfuck that. if the table wasnt loving BADLY FORMATTED i coulda done it already loving WIKIPEDIANS https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_lakes_in_Minnesota
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Mar 9, 2016 06:36
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SNAKES N CAKES posted:You don't think he can take California? California without Rubio is most likely a Trump state. I just can't see California Republicans voting for Ted Cruz.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:36
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Dilbert As gently caress posted:do I dare ask what this is? SIDS is loving horrible.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:36
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Montasque posted:California without Rubio is most likely a Trump state. I just can't see California Republicans voting for Ted Cruz. I really don't know what states can even be won by not-Trumps going forward. All I have is: - Hawaii tonight, maybe? - The Idaho results suggest that Cruz will take Utah. - Kasich has a shot at Ohio - ???
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Mar 9, 2016 06:37
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Dilbert As gently caress posted:do I dare ask what this is? Only if you want to be sad.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:38
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Dilbert As gently caress posted:do I dare ask what this is? google bernie baby and then be sad
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Mar 9, 2016 06:38
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Nonsense posted:SIDS is loving horrible. Oh, after googling it that's pretty sad.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:38
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Montasque posted:California without Rubio is most likely a Trump state. I just can't see California Republicans voting for Ted Cruz. If this is competitive to the end, California will be extremely weird in its relation between vote total and delegate count. California is Winner Take All by Congressional District (every Congressional district is worth 3 delegates, and each Congressional District is WTA). That means the two dozen Republicans living in downtown San Francisco are voting for the same number of delegates as people in heavily Republican districts in San Bernadino or in inland areas. That means that there's considerable potential for the very few Republicans who live in heavily Democratic areas to seriously alter the course of who wins CA.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:39
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Dilbert As gently caress posted:do I dare ask what this is? Someone dressed their baby like Bernie and took it to rallies, and it died because of how badly Bernie lost South Carolina.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:39
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well this thread got weird
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Mar 9, 2016 06:40
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Jewel Repetition posted:Someone dressed their baby like Bernie and took it to rallies, and it died because of how badly Bernie lost South Carolina. Pretty sure it died of shame from having Bernouts for parents
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Mar 9, 2016 06:40
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Montasque posted:California without Rubio is most likely a Trump state. I just can't see California Republicans voting for Ted Cruz. in the most recent poll (conducted from 12/16 to 1/3? that's not how polling loving works. whatever) cruz got 25% to trump's 23% http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/ca/california_republican_presidential_primary-5322.html i still think you're right. cruz has mormons, midwestern movement evangelicals, and people who really believe that everything ever should be obstructed, and only the last one really seems like a big part of the californian republican scene it's literally on the last day of the primary season though so barring something really crazy it won't matter ive never been to orange county but i've been in the central valley and that's just as much of a rural hellhole as anywhere else in buttfuck republican real america. they feel like trump voters but maybe they've got that midwestern church feel that makes you vote for cruz instead of that southern pretend church feel that makes you vote for trump i think the background of the central valley farmers is dust bowl migrants, okies, and hey ted cruz won oklahoma! so maybe he gets those republican CDs. the point about how all the democratic CDs will be just as much of a big deal is good though. hell, there's gonna be like 21 republicans in like compton who have just as much of a say as miles and miles of crazy rear end farmers oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 06:45 on Mar 9, 2016 |
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Mar 9, 2016 06:41
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Patter Song posted:If this is competitive to the end, California will be extremely weird in its relation between vote total and delegate count. California is Winner Take All by Congressional District (every Congressional district is worth 3 delegates, and each Congressional District is WTA). That means the two dozen Republicans living in downtown San Francisco are voting for the same number of delegates as people in heavily Republican districts in San Bernadino or in inland areas. That means that there's considerable potential for the very few Republicans who live in heavily Democratic areas to seriously alter the course of who wins CA. That sounds nuts and all and really fun but it feels like three months in this election is the equivalent to thirty years in normal ones so it's pointless to even think about it now.
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Mar 9, 2016 06:41
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Aliquid posted:well this thread got weird like rick ross, ycs cry only when babies die
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Mar 9, 2016 06:42
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