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lemonadesweetheart posted:It's still under negotiation with no real details. Most likely outcome is a FG minority government with FF as main opposition with some kind of agreement on how to get stuff passed agreed between the two. If it ends up as an impasse it'll go to a new general election but nobody elected will actually want that to happen. If there's a minority government, does Kenny still end up as Taoiseach, or does somebody else get a shot?
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Mar 4, 2016 16:39
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e_angst posted:If there's a minority government, does Kenny still end up as Taoiseach, or does somebody else get a shot? There's talk about a rotation between them both but I can't see that working out. I think it's too early to predict but I can see Kenny taking it on again for however long this poo poo show lasts.
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Mar 4, 2016 16:57
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lemonadesweetheart posted:Blut, you're not going to convince anyone that Labour should get seats over FF or FG until Labour proves it can go into government and not just follow lock step whatever FF or FG want to do. You're absolutely right that it makes sense that people should do this but right now people don't see any real difference between a seat going Labour or a seat going FF or FG and they're not far wrong. This kick in the balls still hasn't registered properly with labour because they're still whining that they were just doing what was best for the country instead of sacking up and realising that the reason they only have 7 seats now is because of their last five years in government. Irish people are like goldfish so maybe next cycle you'll see the labour resurgence you seem to want. Believe or not I'd actually have a selfish personal preference for LAB to stay where they are at 7 seats, so the SocDems can take advantage of the 'soft' left niche and expand into it. LAB only got a 3rd preference vote from me last week. But I wrote a thesis on how ideological splits amongst left-wing population groups tend to dramatically damage left-wing parties chances of forming governments, mostly to the benefit of the centre-right parties. So its a pet peeve of mine when supporters of one left party attack another above all else - its just very problematic and short sighted. I imagine you're right about the goldfish memories though. If FF could be forgiven for the horrors of last decade after only 5 years LAB will probably also bounce back.
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Mar 4, 2016 16:57
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e_angst posted:If there's a minority government, does Kenny still end up as Taoiseach, or does somebody else get a shot? Anyone who can get the votes becomes Taoiseach. After a Ceann Comhairle (speaker) various nominations will be put forward by the different parties and voted on, whoever gets a simple majority is appointed - there is no special position given to the largest party. For example back in 1948 the First Inter-Party Government was knocked together from every opposition party (the largest single party being FG who were still 37 seats behind FF) and didn't even manage to muster a majority then - they relied on the support of several independents in the nomination vote to get their man in the top seat. edit: If it's FG gathering the votes to forge support for a minority government its assumed they will be nominating Enda unless there is a challenge in the party to heave him out of the leadership spot -though the leader of the party doesn't have to be the parties nominee for Taoiseach (again see the First Inter Party government who nominated Costello to placate their coalition partners over Mulcahy who remained party leader) kustomkarkommando fucked around with this message at 17:12 on Mar 4, 2016 |
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Mar 4, 2016 17:05
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Blut posted:Believe or not I'd actually have a selfish personal preference for LAB to stay where they are at 7 seats, so the SocDems can take advantage of the 'soft' left niche and expand into it. LAB only got a 3rd preference vote from me last week. But I wrote a thesis on how ideological splits amongst left-wing population groups tend to dramatically damage left-wing parties chances of forming governments, mostly to the benefit of the centre-right parties. So its a pet peeve of mine when supporters of one left party attack another above all else - its just very problematic and short sighted. You're not a centre-left party just by declaring you are a centre-left party. If you are a party who used to be centre-left but are explicitly involved with a government which pushes through a right wing agenda for very little in return then people who view themselves as on the left on the spectrum are justified in punishing them for that betrayal. How else does a formerly centre-left party know that voters don't appreciate their going from centre-left to centre or centre right?
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Mar 4, 2016 20:46
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forkboy84 posted:You're not a centre-left party just by declaring you are a centre-left party. If you are a party who used to be centre-left but are explicitly involved with a government which pushes through a right wing agenda for very little in return then people who view themselves as on the left on the spectrum are justified in punishing them for that betrayal. How else does a formerly centre-left party know that voters don't appreciate their going from centre-left to centre or centre right? This is exactly what I keep stressing. If Labour actually proved themselves to be centre-left in government then I would vote for them, I'd tell my friends to vote for them. But as it stands they do not want to work with left parties and while they put leftist points in their manifesto, they do not act on them nine times out of ten. Again, I agree that the left vote does split and that is a problem. People are not putting preferences for Labour because of their pure ideology, they are leaving them out because they constantly say leftist things and help implement right wing mandates. kustomkarkommando posted:Anyone who can get the votes becomes Taoiseach. After a Ceann Comhairle (speaker) various nominations will be put forward by the different parties and voted on, whoever gets a simple majority is appointed - there is no special position given to the largest party. The First Inter-Party Government was a wild ride and not something we will ever see again, I don't think. The early days of Irish self-determination where we didn't know what the gently caress to do. I'm actually surprised how little information is being leaked or reported on in the aftermath of the election. Everyone is really waiting for the dust to settle here.
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Mar 4, 2016 20:54
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Am I the only one who thinks this election was a disaster for everyone involved, bar the SocDems?
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Mar 4, 2016 21:33
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SocDems, Independents and the Green Party. Everyone else underpreformed. All in all it was a win because Renua didn't get a single seat.
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Mar 4, 2016 21:44
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Quinntan posted:Am I the only one who thinks this election was a disaster for everyone involved, bar the SocDems? Greens recovered some seats. Sinn Fein improved on the last election, got slightly less than some people said but still a good improvement. I don't think the AAA-PBP were expecting lots of seats, they had people saying they wouldn't pick up any and they came close to Labour. And Fianna Fail picked up a lot of seats despite ruining the country not too long ago.
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Mar 4, 2016 23:57
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https://twitter.com/JohnBurnsST/status/706241426108112896
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Mar 5, 2016 23:41
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Pay walls are annoying but we've got the first couple of meaty pieces out about the government formation talks in the Sunday Papers. Sunday Times saying FF are demanding Kenny step down as FG leader as part of a minority deal (or at least is not nominated as Taoiseach). Sunday Business Post saying Kenny has assured FG higher ups he will resign in office if successfully re-elected The Sindo's piece is the only one not behind a paywall. A snippet: Sunday Independent posted:The Taoiseach Enda Kenny is making an extraordinary behind-the-scenes attempt to form a government of 80 seats, in which Independents and TDs from smaller parties would comprise over half the Cabinet, the Sunday Independent can reveal. They've also got a column by Shane Ross up again speculating that, if Martin secures more votes than Kenny on Thursday, Enda may step down as party leader. Also the Sunday Business Post has Siptu sources throwing shade about the "character" of Alan Kelly indicating that the unions may block any attempts he makes to take the Labour leadership
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Mar 6, 2016 16:44
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Holy poo poo this is really going to fall to pieces in the next month, isn't it.
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Mar 6, 2016 16:49
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Is the comparison my brain is making to Israeli coalition negotiations warranted yet? Like "gently caress this is going to turn Ireland into Knesset West"?
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Mar 6, 2016 16:54
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lemonadesweetheart posted:There's talk about a rotation between them both but I can't see that working out. I think it's too early to predict but I can see Kenny taking it on again for however long this poo poo show lasts. Bad idea being honest about it. The D'hondt system was implemented in Cork City Council for the Lord Mayor position after the last local election, and it's been a loving disaster (Fianna Fail councillor selected by Sinn Fein. Now a Sinn Fein councillor has taken the position and has his head so far up the arse of the main Fianna Fail councillor in Cork, he can only see Dara Murphy's shoes) If they try to play that card again for Taoiseach, it'll be equally as bad. Rotating the position every year simply doesn't work for the people who voted in the TDs or the councillors; it only works for the gently caress who wants the glory of being in charge, making lovely decisions, then passing the buck onto the next poor fucker to take the blame next year.
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Mar 6, 2016 18:31
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How the hell would that work anyway?
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Mar 6, 2016 18:32
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It seemed like they agreed to swap the position between the parties with the highest amount of elected councillors when it was done in Cork City. Whether they've done it on any actually fair and sound basis is anyone's guess. So I suppose if they were to implement the D'hondt system for the Dail, it'd be Fianna Fail, Fine Gael, Sinn Fein and Labour electing someone from each party who would take up the position at the end of each previous Taoiseach's reign, which would only last about a year. How they decide who goes first (and who from each party they want to send down the river), I suppose is put up to a vote between all the parties, or at least all the party members who give the parties the most money to turn a blind eye to their various cartoonishly evil bullshit ventures.
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Mar 6, 2016 18:44
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That sounds completely unworkable.
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Mar 6, 2016 18:45
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The idea of rotating the Taoiseach between coalition partners has been floating around since 1992 - Dick Spring was very keen on it and Ruari Quinn floated the idea again in 2002. How exactly it would work had never really been clarified - you'd have to dissolve the government and then rerun a Taoiseach vote and reappoint the government all over again. There have been Taoiseach changes mid government (like when Haughey was replaced with Reynolds) but the subsequent cabinet reshuffles have often been sources of tension and of course going for another vote in the Dail to appoint a new Taoiseach is going to leave you vulnerable if the numbers go against you. FG and FF where very hostile to the idea and it was basically a non-starter so to see FF revive the idea is pretty funny
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Mar 6, 2016 18:52
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Spacewolf posted:Is the comparison my brain is making to Israeli coalition negotiations warranted yet? Like "gently caress this is going to turn Ireland into Knesset West"? That coalition was all the parties from centre-right to far-far-far-right. This is going to be an entire spectrum of political ideologies with deputies/parties who may not keep their mouths shut and do what they're told like labour did pre-election. It's going to fall apart spectacularly with plenty of 
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Mar 6, 2016 19:18
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Bedshaped posted:That coalition was all the parties from centre-right to far-far-far-right. This is going to be an entire spectrum of political ideologies with deputies/parties who may not keep their mouths shut and do what they're told like labour did pre-election. It's going to fall apart spectacularly with plenty of So Israel from the 1980s, when Yitzhak Shamir and Shimon Peres rotated the PM job.
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Mar 7, 2016 00:14
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This whole thing is boring now just give us a government already. A commenter on Slugger O'Toole suggested FF are eager as possible to reach a deal as they may not have the money to effectively campaign a second election. Just an Internet commenter of course but it's still an interesting thought
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Mar 10, 2016 02:34
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Holy poo poo the idea of FF going broke is too good. Call the election now!
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Mar 10, 2016 02:43
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We've got the Taoiseach vote today - seems unlikely that Martin will pull ahead in votes as it looks like a lot of independents/smaller parties are going to abstain or vote against any FF/FG nomination. The ceann comhairle vote is also today - FF wound up nominating Seán Ó Fearghaíl so the new favourite seems to be Dublin central Independent Maureen O'Sullivan (according to the Irish Tines anyway). That would effectively reduce Dublin Central to a two seater next election so the SocDems Gary Gannon probably won't make it next time either if she gets elected today
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Mar 10, 2016 10:17
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Well never mind, Seán Ó Fearghaíl elected CC - O'Sullivan was in for a shout but a couple of SF TDs didn't transfer to her so she fell short. Taoiseach nominations after about 2:30pm
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Mar 10, 2016 14:21
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kustomkarkommando posted:Well never mind, Seán Ó Fearghaíl elected CC - O'Sullivan was in for a shout but a couple of SF TDs didn't transfer to her so she fell short. SF votes not transferring to a left-wing candidate, resulting in an FF/FG person being elected? Who could have seen that coming  From what I've heard FF would prefer to stay in opposition supporting an FG minority government on supply & confidence. But FG are determined to drag them into government so the two parties will share the blame come the next election. So FG are using the threat of a new election against FF (knowing FF are low on funds). An interesting standoff.
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Mar 10, 2016 17:57
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This is a v. boring vote Enda got 57 (FG + Labour only), Martin 43 (FF only) Gerry and Richard Boyd Barrett up next
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Mar 10, 2016 18:13
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Blut posted:SF votes not transferring to a left-wing candidate, resulting in an FF/FG person being elected? Who could have seen that coming :derp Yes, because FF getting CC hasn't been the favourite since the results came in. Good job. How long do they have to tussle with this before a second election is called?
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Mar 10, 2016 18:24
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Gerry got 24 so SF +1 Boyd Barrett got 9, so AAA-PBP +3 (probably some Independents4Change?) Cabinet posted:How long do they have to tussle with this before a second election is called? I don't think there is an official cut off time, its down to Enda to dissolve the Dail Next Taoiseach vote probably isn't going to be until April now considering St Paddy's and the centenary stuff, even then you probably won't see someone elected but you might see the minor parties and independents breaking more clearly towards either FF or FG
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Mar 10, 2016 19:02
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Jesus Christ this is going to be a mess.
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Mar 10, 2016 19:08
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Enda has made it clear he is going to promptly tender his resignation to the president after losing the confidence of the house, its basically a formality but at least he has more sense then Haughey who tried to fight having to go through the motions back in the day. He stays on in a caretaker capacity of course and if he subsequently wins the nomination for Taoiseach it's all grand Well for him anyway
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Mar 10, 2016 19:12
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Wait so he is stepping down from Taoiseach... to become a caretaker Taoiseach... while still looking to become Taoiseach?
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Mar 10, 2016 19:27
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Cabinet posted:Wait so he is stepping down from Taoiseach... to become a caretaker Taoiseach... while still looking to become Taoiseach? He basically has to tender his resignation cause he doesn't have the support required to stay in the role but he can't leave the post until a replacement is elected so he sticks around shaking hands and keeping things moving. And then if he subsequently gets support in the Dail to form a government he doesn't have to resign anymore. Haughey thought it was dumb as hell and refused to formally resign in 1989 after he lost the first nomination vote but the opposition pointed out he was legally obliged to and eventually he relented (and he won the next nomination vote shortly after)
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Mar 10, 2016 19:36
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It's a really odd work-around to this situation. I'm pretty much on Haughey's side with this. (Barf)
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Mar 10, 2016 19:49
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So uh, this might be interesting. Sinn Féin calls for vote on Irish reunification if UK backs Brexit http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/mar/11/sinn-fein-irish-reunification-vote-brexit-eu-referendum?CMP=twt_a-politics_b-gdnukpolitics
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Mar 11, 2016 17:26
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Makes sense they would. Northern Ireland receives a lot of EU funding from the EU PEACE & INTERREG programmes. It will probably be very costly for them if Britain exits, unless they increase funding to match it.
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Mar 11, 2016 17:47
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Coohoolin posted:So uh, this might be interesting. Of course they have, its called posturing, they are making sure their supporters in the North know that they are still concerned with a united Ireland. They also know that a referendum wont happen. For a referendum you would need the agreement of three parties, Britain, NI and the Republic. Britain will probably have a stance of if the others agree then fine, the North would need Brexit to shift people's views as there is not majority support for reunification and the Republic would not want reunification, remember NI is costly, more so than the Republic would want to afford, they would also not want to deal with the inevitable Loyalist kick off. Reunification would be bad for NI. Marenghi posted:Makes sense they would. Northern Ireland receives a lot of EU funding from the EU PEACE & INTERREG programmes. It will probably be very costly for them if Britain exits, unless they increase funding to match it. They also receive a lot of funding of Britain that the Republic would struggle to match.
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Mar 11, 2016 18:06
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Yeah it's really not a surprise. It's similar to the SNP saying they want an independent vote for Scotland, England, Wales, and Northern Ireland. Also the rumours that the SNP will push for a second IndyRef if there is a Brexit. I'm sure PC have been saying similar things too. Tiocfaidh ar lá
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Mar 11, 2016 19:16
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It's been a while since they brought it up. Not sure who really wants such a thing at this point.
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Mar 11, 2016 20:34
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Last time SF talked about a border poll the DUP said "Sure thing let's do it" and it was Villiers who shot it down - the GFA does have mechanism for a unification poll but the power to call it is given to the secretary of state who can call it if they think there will be a positive outcome. Polling last time around showed the majority supported the idea of a border poll even with less than a third saying they would vote for unification, the idea gets support from some Unionists as a way to decisively show popular support for the maintenance of the union (and undercut nationalist politics). Its hard not see the recent call as anything but a bit of canny electioneering though, SF are looking to take more votes from SDLP who are split on the issue - the new leader Colum Eastwood supports the idea of a border poll now but much of the old guard (including former leader Alasdair McDonnell) opposed it on the grounds it would be a distraction from the real bread and butter issues. With Martin running in Derry against Eastwood (in the SDLPs heartland) to me this smacks of forcing Eastwood into the open on the issue - either he comes out and shows his nationalist credentials (and he is considered considerably more nationalist than other sections of the party in say South Belfast) or backs away to maintain party unity, either way it could drive possible SDLP voters to SF or Alliance depending on his stance
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Mar 11, 2016 21:28
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Its very coincidental timing that the SDLPs party conference is tomorrow...
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Mar 11, 2016 21:32
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