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GaussianCopula posted:I don't get that logic. It's like saying "surgery is bad" because you were unable to save someone who got his head blast off with a shotgun. Conversely, you're arguing that someone should cure leukaemia with leeches. Bloodletting (austerity) has its place. Greece is showing that it is not working. Greece needs fundamental reform, but right now your patient has turned green, emitted a funny smell and started speaking French for no reason. At what point do you stop applying leeches?
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Mar 21, 2016 23:06
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Tesseraction posted:Conversely, you're arguing that someone should cure leukaemia with leeches. Bloodletting (austerity) has its place. Greece is showing that it is not working. What IS the fundamental reform, how can it be implemented without external pressure, and how would it be affected by Greece's inability to service its debt?
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Mar 21, 2016 23:10
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steinrokkan posted:What IS the fundamental reform, how can it be implemented without external pressure, and how would it be affected by Greece's inability to service its debt? Nobody is saying that Greece's inability or unwillingness to reform isn't part of the issue. But neither is austerity going to make that happen. So its not worth bringing up. Because we know austerity: 1. Doesn't work. 2. Isn't supposed to work 3. Is just an excuse for investors to liquidate anything worthwhile and flee.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:15
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steinrokkan posted:What IS the fundamental reform, how can it be implemented without external pressure, and how would it be affected by Greece's inability to service its debt? The first is partially what's ongoing - the reform of the pension system being a classic example. Second, referencing external pressure makes little sense - do you think Greece is enjoying its economy being in the shitter? That they won't try anything sane that would remove them from that? As to the third, austerity has done nothing in a positive direction to change their ability to service its debt. It is not going to service its debt under the current fiscal system. I mean if you have a way to to make austerity magically poo poo money out of the unicorn's rear end feel free to help me out here, but I'm seeing a lack of investment both from domestic and external creditors helping keep the economic desert dry.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:17
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Tesseraction posted:Conversely, you're arguing that someone should cure leukaemia with leeches. Bloodletting (austerity) has its place. Greece is showing that it is not working. Please tell me the course of action that would have been preferable in your mind.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:18
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GaussianCopula posted:Please tell me the course of action that would have been preferable in your mind. Some form of investment. I am aware that Wolfy is buying out some of Greece's public infrastructure, but this is doing little in the way of improving the economy because changing the owner does nothing to create demand when the economy is tanked.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:19
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Am I meant to assume that the two of you are credulously telling me that as long as Greece says all the right magic words and signs all the correct magic talismans that somehow the austerity rainbow will push out a massive surplus that eases their debt and recovers their economy? Because I'm going to be honest I'm struggling to remember a time in history where that worked on an economy in the toilet.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:22
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Tesseraction posted:The first is partially what's ongoing - the reform of the pension system being a classic example. Second, referencing external pressure makes little sense - do you think Greece is enjoying its economy being in the shitter? That they won't try anything sane that would remove them from that? As to the third, austerity has done nothing in a positive direction to change their ability to service its debt. It is not going to service its debt under the current fiscal system. Reforming the pension system is a drop in the ocean. Yes, Greece has enjoyed their economy being in the shitter as long as others were willing to foot the bill. The economy was dead for a long time before the crisis officially broke out. External pressure means that the government doesn't reverse into the easy mode of living on ever increasing credit. The third point - well, I respectfully disagree. And even if it weren't true, the Greeks aren't worse off due to austerity than they would be trying to fulfil their obligations on their own, possibly to the contrary. As I said, there are no possibilities that would leave the Greeks better off than their were, or even at their starting level, since you can't just decide "our economy is actually producing value now, and it doesn't require any capital to operate"
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Mar 21, 2016 23:24
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GaussianCopula posted:Please tell me the course of action that would have been preferable in your mind. Not austerity. Because if you are proposing austerity, you are out of your loving mind. steinrokkan posted:The third point - well, I respectfully disagree. And even if it weren't true, the Greeks aren't worse off due to austerity than they would be trying to fulfil their obligations on their own, possibly to the contrary. As I said, there are no possibilities that would leave the Greeks better off than their were, or even at their starting level, since you can't just decide "our economy is actually producing value now, and it doesn't require any capital to operate" And how would austerity help here, other than digging the hole even deeper.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:24
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Tesseraction posted:Am I meant to assume that the two of you are credulously telling me that as long as Greece says all the right magic words and signs all the correct magic talismans that somehow the austerity rainbow will push out a massive surplus that eases their debt and recovers their economy? Because I'm going to be honest I'm struggling to remember a time in history where that worked on an economy in the toilet. The austerity is the recognition that there are no magic words. It's not to make the Greeks better off, it's just to bring them down to the new normal in a controlled manner. If the Greeks don't like that, they should start lynching anybody complicit in running the country over the past 30 years.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:26
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CommieGIR posted:Not austerity. Because if you are proposing austerity, you are out of your loving mind. As I said, the point is to recognize the hole the country already is in and stop treading the air. It's a Looney Tunes cartoon scene in economic reality. Once the country falls to the bottom of the hole it ran into, it can start rising up with the help of capital starting to seek it again.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:28
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steinrokkan posted:As I said, the point is to recognize the hole the country already is in and stop treading the air. It's a Looney Tunes cartoon scene in economic reality. Once the country falls to the bottom of the hole it ran into, it can start rising up with the help of capital starting to seek it again. steinrokkan posted:The austerity is the recognition that there are no magic words. It's not to make the Greeks better off, it's just to bring them down to the new normal in a controlled manner. If the Greeks don't like that, they should start lynching anybody complicit in running the country over the past 30 years. This is an awful idea. And in reality, probably won't do anything other than increase the problem and result in unnecessary suffering. Because in reality, in their case, there is likely no bottom to be had. In the end of this insane plan of action you've proposed, would probably just be the EU cutting ties and the IMF dusting their hands of the situation.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:30
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steinrokkan posted:The austerity is the recognition that there are no magic words. It's not to make the Greeks better off, it's just to bring them down to the new normal in a controlled manner. If the Greeks don't like that, they should start lynching anybody complicit in running the country over the past 30 years. Wait, if this is the "new normal", why are we blaming the people "complicit in running the country over the last 30 years"? You're off-message, heretic. The orthodox explanation is that it was never possible for Greeks to have pensions, healthcare, or vacation time, not that there was some period at which it was possible and then external events made it impossible.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:31
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Tesseraction posted:The first is partially what's ongoing - the reform of the pension system being a classic example. Second, referencing external pressure makes little sense - do you think Greece is enjoying its economy being in the shitter? That they won't try anything sane that would remove them from that? As to the third, austerity has done nothing in a positive direction to change their ability to service its debt. It is not going to service its debt under the current fiscal system. The problem is the structure of the Eurozone. The nature of the single currency basically removes most of the monetary policy instruments that governments have open to them at the national level. This by default ensures that without massive external financing for Greece, fiscal policy - ie: Austerity - is literally the only option it has (aside from Grexit). Such external financing - either through massive debt forgiveness, or massive sustained structural wealth transfers from the Eurozone core (ie: mainly Germany) is now utterly politically untenable: all political goodwill has been worn out on both sides by the years of back and forth. Its not a matter of Austerity solving Greece's economic woes - it clearly is never going to, except in the minds of the true believers - its a matter of it being the only option in light of the unwillingness of the rest of the Eurozone to pump funds into Greece ad infinitum.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:31
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Tigey posted:Its not a matter of Austerity solving Greece's economic woes - it clearly is never going to, except in the minds of the true believers - its a matter of it being the only option in light of the unwillingness of the rest of the Eurozone to pump funds into Greece ad infinitum. The solution to failure is not to try more known failures. Austerity is a lose-lose and it always will be.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:32
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CommieGIR posted:This is an awful idea. And in reality, probably won't do anything other than increase the problem and result in unnecessary suffering. Because in reality, in their case, there is likely no bottom to be had. In the end of this insane plan of action you've proposed, would probably just be the EU cutting ties and the IMF dusting their hands of the situation. Greece needs money to do anything at all. Greece has no money. Greece needs to depress its expenses to a level where its production factors productivity outweights their costs. At that point money will start coming in. I don't see another way other than pure altruism, which is not a thing that happens, ever.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:33
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The solution is to have the EU act like an actual union of states and have the federal government assume the debts of its state components.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:33
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steinrokkan posted:If the Greeks don't like that, they should start lynching anybody complicit in running the country over the past 30 years. Well, to take Effectronica's gimmick, I can't say I couldn't blame them...
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Mar 21, 2016 23:33
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computer parts posted:The solution is to have the EU act like an actual union of states and have the federal government assume the debts of its state components. But the EU was never allowed to progress to that stage due to all those eurosceptics citing sovereignty and protection from supranational intervention. Now a country is in trouble and largely the same crowd is complaining that the EU isn't able to intervene enough.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:35
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steinrokkan posted:But the EU was never allowed to progress to that stage due to all those eurosceptics citing sovereignty and protection from supranational intervention. Now a country is in trouble and largely the same crowd is complaining that the EU isn't able to intervene enough. The UKIP, noted supporter of financial aid to Greece.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:36
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Effectronica posted:Wait, if this is the "new normal", why are we blaming the people "complicit in running the country over the last 30 years"? You're off-message, heretic. The orthodox explanation is that it was never possible for Greeks to have pensions, healthcare, or vacation time, not that there was some period at which it was possible and then external events made it impossible. The Greeks could have had the same pensions etc. as other countries of their stage of economic development. Instead the political class used government transfers as an instrument of political corruption, and national spending became bloated while productivity bottomed out. Why should the Greeks get some sort of lifestyle subsidies while their neighbours actually have to work to earn stuff.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:38
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steinrokkan posted:Greece needs money to do anything at all. Greece has no money. Greece needs to depress its expenses to a level where its production factors productivity outweights their costs. At that point money will start coming in. I don't see another way other than pure altruism, which is not a thing that happens, ever. At the end of the day, I agree with you completely. But you, me, and the world knows that Austerity doesn't work. At all. And it makes zero sense to inflict something that is known to not work at all on them for no other reason than there is nothing else to do. I doubt Greece is going to be that one successful instance.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:39
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Effectronica posted:The UKIP, noted supporter of financial aid to Greece. UKIP is not representative of the overall eurosceptic movement, historically and internationally. There are many leftists who fear the EU integration process, as demonstrated by this very thread after all.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:39
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steinrokkan posted:The Greeks could have had the same pensions etc. as other countries of their stage of economic development. Instead the political class used government transfers as an instrument of political corruption, and national spending became bloated while productivity bottomed out. Why should the Greeks get some sort of lifestyle subsidies while their neighbours actually have to work to earn stuff. There we go, that's better. Stay free from schisms.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:40
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CommieGIR posted:At the end of the day, I agree with you completely. But you, me, and the world knows that Austerity doesn't work. At all. And it makes zero sense to inflict something that is known to not work at all on them for no other reason than there is nothing else to do. Well, I guess the difference is that I think they would be doing even worse if let to deal with investor / creditor backlash without the external impositions. As bad as austerity is, at least it's a deliberate process rather than a country going into bankrupcy kicking and screaming with no means to stop the process and just throwing away even more money along the way.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:43
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steinrokkan posted:Well, I guess the difference is that I think they would be doing even worse if let to deal with investor / creditor backlash without the external impositions. As bad as austerity is, at least it's a deliberate process rather than a country going into bankrupcy kicking and screaming with no means to stop the process and just throwing away even more money along the way. No, austerity would just speed up the process. Let's use the example austerity fans love using: Say Greece's budget is like a household budget (its not, not states is, but play along), austerity is the equivalent of saying: "Man, we're so deep in debt, I'm going to quit my job and we'll live in cardboard box and hope this all blows over" It will not decrease their budgetary issues. In fact, most likely, it will cut any sort of income they DID have down to nill. It doesn't work. Its not a method that will ever work. And every-time its been tried, its a miserable failure. Just because its a PLAN does not mean its a plan that should be tried. CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 23:49 on Mar 21, 2016 |
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Mar 21, 2016 23:47
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CommieGIR posted:No, austerity would just speed up the process. It's not - it rests on the assumption that public sector spending in the given country is ineffective, and therefore doesn't work like the job in your allegory. So instead the government is steered into making monetary and fiscal decisions to favour export oriented private activity, and to minimize import consumption. So the theory is more like this: "I'll give up my dream of becoming a world class sculptor in addition to my day job, and instead of spending money on more marble, I'll start paying my child support."
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Mar 21, 2016 23:50
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steinrokkan posted:It's not - it rests on the assumption that public sector spending in the given country is ineffective, and therefore doesn't work like the job in your allegory. So instead the government is steered into making monetary and fiscal decisions to favour export oriented private activity, and to minimize import consumption. So the theory is more like this: "I'll give up my dream of becoming a world class sculptor in addition to my day job, and instead of spending money on more marble, I'll start paying my child support." quote:In 2013 it published a detailed analysis concluding that "if financial markets focus on the short-term behavior of the debt ratio, or if country authorities engage in repeated rounds of tightening in an effort to get the debt ratio to converge to the official target," austerity policies could slow or reverse economic growth and inhibit full employment.[43] Keynesian economists and commentators such as Paul Krugman have suggested that this has in fact been occurring, with austerity yielding worse results in proportion to the extent to which it has been imposed You can keep harping on about it, its not working.
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Mar 21, 2016 23:53
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The fact that austerity doesn't work is completely irrelevant here. EU's decision to push for cuts likely has more to do with the fact that they have no other option. They can't just shrug and tell people to ignore Greece's economy imploding if they want to at least pretend that they are relevant. And even back when if you closed your eyes and wished really, really hard, you might have been able to pretend that just shoveling Greece bunch of money would fix everything, there was significant opposition to the loans. EuroSceptics would love nothing more at this point than EU announcing that because the last couple times were so successful, they are giving Greeks couple more boatfuls of money. So they are doing functionally nothing while pretending to do something so that when it inevitably implodes, they can blame Greeks and that euro itself is completely problem-free.
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Mar 22, 2016 00:05
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Puistokemisti posted:The fact that austerity doesn't work is completely irrelevant here. EU's decision to push for cuts likely has more to do with the fact that they have no other option. Agree. Its completely irrelevant that it doesn't work. It is literally the only option open to Greece that is politically possible in its current context. Everything else relies on massive fiscal transfers from the rest of the Eurozone on a scale that is just not going to happen - the political narrative is utterly skewed against solidarity and more toward limiting liability now. The point is now not to save Greece (and its possible this was never the main objective of the Troika/Eurozone creditor countries, etc, except in a partial sense). The point is to limit the liability of the rest of the Eurozone. This is of course monstrous, but serves to demonstrate the utter collapse of solidarity in the EU (as does the refugee crisis).
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Mar 22, 2016 00:15
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Tigey posted:Agree. Its completely irrelevant that it doesn't work. It is literally the only option open to Greece that is politically possible in its current context. Everything else relies on massive fiscal transfers from the rest of the Eurozone on a scale that is just not going to happen - the political narrative is utterly skewed against solidarity and more toward limiting liability now. EU was never really built on solidarity, imho, it has always been about maximizing overall utility for the majority of individual members, which usually included sponsoring some forms of development in other countries to facilitate economic exchange. Unfortunately for Greece, they are apparently so bad at this economy business that nobody really is dependent on them doing well to continue operating.
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Mar 22, 2016 00:20
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Tigey posted:Agree. Its completely irrelevant that it doesn't work. It is literally the only option open to Greece that is politically possible in its current context. "This won't cure your cancer, but hell, it won't NOT cure your cancer" 
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Mar 22, 2016 00:20
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CommieGIR posted:"This won't cure your cancer, but hell, it won't NOT cure your cancer" "This won't cure your cancer but at least other patients don't burn the hospital down. Sucks to be you, I guess. Have you tried coffee enemas yet?"
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Mar 22, 2016 00:24
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Puistokemisti posted:"This won't cure your cancer but at least other patients don't burn the hospital down. Now, have you tried coffee enemas yet?" Probably as effective as austerity will be.
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Mar 22, 2016 00:25
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CommieGIR posted:"This won't cure your cancer, but hell, it won't NOT cure your cancer" The problem is, the Doctor doesn't care, as long as he doesn't catch the cancer. Admittedly, this analogy would be better with an infectious disease, but you have to work with what you have
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Mar 22, 2016 00:26
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CommieGIR posted:"This won't cure your cancer, but hell, it won't NOT cure your cancer" People keep saying that, but really just as there are no cures to some cancer, I guess there are no happy endings to a national collapse. I have yet to see a recipe to Greece's problems that doesn't rely on guilting other countries into paying the Greek government to do its thing with no strings attached (which is what caused the current crisis in the first place)
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Mar 22, 2016 00:26
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CommieGIR posted:Probably as effective as austerity will be. Face it, you will die no matter what, at least the coffee enema will give you the aura that you tried to do something.
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Mar 22, 2016 00:27
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steinrokkan posted:People keep saying that, but really just as there are no cures to some cancer, I guess there are no happy endings to a national collapse. I have yet to see a recipe to Greece's problems that doesn't rely on guilting other countries into paying the Greek government to do its thing with no strings attached (which is what caused the current crisis in the first place) Not saying there is a cure to Greece. But Austerity ain't it either. We can still here all we want and wishy washy back and forth about one of the least effective, if effective at all, methods for solving economic crises, or we can accept that its also another dead end. steinrokkan posted:Face it, you will die no matter what, at least the coffee enema will give you the aura that you tried to do something. Its called false hope, and its disgustingly cruel and often takes advantage of people. Like austerity! Tigey posted:The problem is, the Doctor doesn't care, as long as he doesn't catch the cancer. Greeks economy being in shambles means that austerity is going to do nothing more than increase the pain on people that likely had nothing to do with the crash to begin with.
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Mar 22, 2016 00:28
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CommieGIR posted:Not saying there is a cure to Greece. But Austerity ain't it either. We can still here all we want and wishy washy back and forth about one of the least effective, if effective at all, methods for solving economic crises, or we can accept that its also another dead end. If you say there's no cure, you don't really have any capital to reject austerity since you are basically saying "it's not a good solution, but it's as good as any other solution"
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Mar 22, 2016 00:56
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steinrokkan posted:If you say there's no cure, you don't really have any capital to reject austerity since you are basically saying "it's not a good solution, but it's as good as any other solution" No, because any other solution probably has more legitimacy. Austerity has none. Just because the prognosis seems grim does not mean whacko and disproven methods suddenly become legitimate. steinrokkan posted:lol, greeks proving evvery day that they deserve to die in a ditch CommieGIR fucked around with this message at 01:01 on Mar 22, 2016 |
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Mar 22, 2016 00:58
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