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Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
Lmao was able to flip it around and get 200 shares at .15

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Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

Shear Modulus posted:

Wait so is Keller going to be on the 10? That contract is bouncing around like loving crazy.

'Other depictions of women and civil rights leaders will also be part of new currency designs.'

This still resolves to Keller YES. If it's actually her

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



This Keller contract owns, I've made two round trips from 15c to 25-30 in like two minutes.

e: Also somebody sold me Tubman nos for 91c lol

Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 18:04 on Apr 20, 2016

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



loving lol people in the comments are going "yeah Eleanor Roosevelt was huge for suffrage" and then the price literally doubles.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

Hellen Keller would be the first socialist on our money, cool

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
If it's an actual mural depicting suffragettes we have a real possibility to have a multi-yes market. I bought a bunch of Keller & Roosevelt for dirt cheap. This is such a fun gamble omg

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
If it ends up being either of them I come out way way ahead. If it's both of them I've hit the motherfucking jackpot.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Necc0 posted:

If it's an actual mural depicting suffragettes we have a real possibility to have a multi-yes market. I bought a bunch of Keller & Roosevelt for dirt cheap. This is such a fun gamble omg

The weird thing is that people are still bidding Mankiller up when she was like half a century too late.

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

My money is still tied up in the MOV market so I'm missing out on the currency nonsense. It's not even that close, please don't Missouri me again.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

Shear Modulus posted:

The weird thing is that people are still bidding Mankiller up when she was like half a century too late.

Dunno about Mankiller but there's a good chance that Rosa Parks ends up on the back of the $5 based on what they've been saying.

Shear Modulus
Jun 9, 2010



Bernie not dropping out before the end of the month seems like a good buy at 80c, no?

Daniel Bryan
May 23, 2006

GOAT

Shear Modulus posted:

Bernie not dropping out before the end of the month seems like a good buy at 80c, no?

Yeah but it may get lower after next Tuesday

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib
PA Dem MoV >13% is going to be another fun market... recent polls are all over the place:

4/17-4/19 (released today): +13
4/4-4/7: +10
3/30-4/4: +6
4/2-4/3: +22

Social Studies 3rd Period
Oct 31, 2012

THUNDERDOME LOSER



Necc0 posted:

If it ends up being either of them I come out way way ahead. If it's both of them I've hit the motherfucking jackpot.

https://modernmoney.treasury.gov/

The new $10 will celebrate the history of the women’s suffrage movement, and feature images of Lucretia Mott, Sojourner Truth, Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, and Alice Paul, alongside the Treasury building. The front of the new $10 will retain the portrait of Alexander Hamilton.

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.

Shear Modulus posted:

Bernie not dropping out before the end of the month seems like a good buy at 80c, no?

Buy yes and ride the flippy train on Tuesday night. Some folks in chat did this last night and it went pretty well.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

C7ty1 posted:

https://modernmoney.treasury.gov/

The new $10 will celebrate the history of the women’s suffrage movement, and feature images of Lucretia Mott, Sojourner Truth, Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, and Alice Paul, alongside the Treasury building. The front of the new $10 will retain the portrait of Alexander Hamilton.

boooo

Of course they put Roosevelt on the $5 instead of the $10 :mad:

Celot
Jan 14, 2007

Maybe I missed something important, but on "Will Obama's average approval rating be 48.5-48.9% at the end of April 22", the price for YES was .55, and the price for NO was .37, so I just bought both.

e: oh I see, yeah that was not dumb, but it wasn't as smart as I thought

Celot has issued a correction as of 00:49 on Apr 21, 2016

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.
I learned my lesson the hard way betting on polls and somebody (rightfully) gave me poo poo about it here. Don't do it!

Social Studies 3rd Period
Oct 31, 2012

THUNDERDOME LOSER



Don't bet on polls.

don't bet on polls

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

C7ty1 posted:

https://modernmoney.treasury.gov/

The new $10 will celebrate the history of the women’s suffrage movement, and feature images of Lucretia Mott, Sojourner Truth, Susan B. Anthony, Elizabeth Cady Stanton, and Alice Paul, alongside the Treasury building. The front of the new $10 will retain the portrait of Alexander Hamilton.

This seems more realistic. I just can't imagine Keller on US money.

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib
thankfully someone bailed out my fat finger tripling down on mankiller when I was trying to sell my 1c shares for 2c...

somehow Trump NO Nebraska is available for just 85c right now... Seems like a safe place to stash cash, given how states around it - OK, WY, IA, eastern CO, etc - voted

Indiana is a long way away but I'm buying some Trump NO here and there. Early voting started on Apr 5th and ends on Apr 25th. According to this: http://www.southbendtribune.com/new...4f0f932a25.html there's been a record # of early votes - about 31K early in-person votes (2x 2012 numbers) and 20K early absentee votes have been cast (3k more than 2012) - and early voting should favor Cruz given the narrative before NY.

That said, 2012 only had one party's primary, and ~635K total votes came in on the Republican side, so I'm not convinced that 50K early votes actually means there's been a big increase, so who knows

Epic High Five
Jun 5, 2004



thethreeman posted:

thankfully someone bailed out my fat finger tripling down on mankiller when I was trying to sell my 1c shares for 2c...

somehow Trump NO Nebraska is available for just 85c right now... Seems like a safe place to stash cash, given how states around it - OK, WY, IA, eastern CO, etc - voted

Indiana is a long way away but I'm buying some Trump NO here and there. Early voting started on Apr 5th and ends on Apr 25th. According to this: http://www.southbendtribune.com/new...4f0f932a25.html there's been a record # of early votes - about 31K early in-person votes (2x 2012 numbers) and 20K early absentee votes have been cast (3k more than 2012) - and early voting should favor Cruz given the narrative before NY.

That said, 2012 only had one party's primary, and ~635K total votes came in on the Republican side, so I'm not convinced that 50K early votes actually means there's been a big increase, so who knows

Not gonna lie, I'd be more comfortable with Pence NO in Indiana than Trump NO. I cannot imagine whatever polls are about to drop showing him in a good enough position to justify the current prices

I've only got $10 bouncing around and I'm cashing out when it's gone though so I wouldn't assume my speculation is serious. That's where I'm putting my money once it frees up tho

Social Studies 3rd Period
Oct 31, 2012

THUNDERDOME LOSER



:siren:

Hey! They finally put up a market on Robert Bentley (AL governor) impeached OR resigning in 2016.

I think this is very likely, imo. Impeachment proceedings first vote on how to proceed may be next week even. And I can see him potentially resigning as well. From what I can tell there's some decent pressure on him.

L-Boned
Sep 11, 2001

by FactsAreUseless
I am heavy on CT +20 MoV. I feel Trump's efforts to unify voters and Cruz's hissy fits are driving more people to at least be ok voting for Trump. Kasich will be second, but I feel his (and Cruz's) continued low results and non-existent path to the nomination will hurt them going forward.

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.

C7ty1 posted:

:siren:

Hey! They finally put up a market on Robert Bentley (AL governor) impeached OR resigning in 2016.

I think this is very likely, imo. Impeachment proceedings first vote on how to proceed may be next week even. And I can see him potentially resigning as well. From what I can tell there's some decent pressure on him.

drat, that thing was like less than 20c when I looked at it shortly after it launched and now I hate myself for not jumping on it.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake
Man I'm still salty that they put Roosevelt on the $5 instead of the $10. So loving close and that would have been my biggest win on this site by a wide margin.

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib

thethreeman posted:

somehow Trump NO Nebraska is available for just 85c right now... Seems like a safe place to stash cash, given how states around it - OK, WY, IA, eastern CO, etc - voted
this is now down to buyable for 80c... am I crazy or does NE somehow look more like the rust belt than the great plains?

Epic High Five posted:

Not gonna lie, I'd be more comfortable with Pence NO in Indiana than Trump NO. I cannot imagine whatever polls are about to drop showing him in a good enough position to justify the current prices

I've only got $10 bouncing around and I'm cashing out when it's gone though so I wouldn't assume my speculation is serious. That's where I'm putting my money once it frees up tho
Thanks, makes sense. I try to not fall into "momentum" traps when votes are coming from wildly different demographics/regions - worked well in buying up Trump/Clinton shares in the northeast after WI, and I'm just betting there's money to be made in not assuming anything actually changed post NY. Without any polls though, IN is just a total guess for me

Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Some people earlier were discussing going Clinton in Rhode Island. I would advise against that one. It's an easy trap because it's the only anti-Bernie choice that can be bought for "cheap" but it's also the only semi-open primary that day and it's a state full of middle-class white Northeasterners.

jisforjosh
Jun 6, 2006

"It's J is for...you know what? Fuck it, jizz it is"

Vox Nihili posted:

Some people earlier were discussing going Clinton in Rhode Island. I would advise against that one. It's an easy trap because it's the only anti-Bernie choice that can be bought for "cheap" but it's also the only semi-open primary that day and it's a state full of middle-class white Northeasterners.

Yeah I bought in fairly shallow, getting out as soon as I see a poll.

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.
I got in at 33 on RI for Yes Hil and No Bern and am tempted to take your advice and get out while I can double my money. But where to put it after that?! Bernie Dropout yes is 16 right now and that is going to have to be flippable on the 26th, right?

e_angst
Sep 20, 2001

by exmarx

Fidel Castronaut posted:

I got in at 33 on RI for Yes Hil and No Bern and am tempted to take your advice and get out while I can double my money. But where to put it after that?! Bernie Dropout yes is 16 right now and that is going to have to be flippable on the 26th, right?

I think Bernie Dropout will be a tough flip. On the one hand, he will have lost pretty bad on the 26th. On the other hand, it's already the 26th of the month, which may keep people from wanting to buy in if it doesn't seem really certain.

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

RI is becoming increasingly non-white, which is why I'm in on Clinton.

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.
If it were in the 30s I would agree but 16 would be really low on a night where he gets knocked out by 4-5 middle-weights after getting knocked down already by a heavyweight the week before. Honestly, I'm hoping for a wild ride each time a state is called.

The Joe Man
Apr 7, 2007

Flirting With Apathetic Waitresses Since 1984
I put $100 on Bernie on each of the 5 states. Just one win out of five will make my money back.

I'm a GENIUS :dukedog:

i say swears online
Mar 4, 2005

The Joe Man posted:

I put $100 on Bernie on each of the 5 states. Just one win out of five will make my money back.

I'm a GENIUS :dukedog:

If anything, his chances of winning all five states and winning one or two are probably equal.

Necc0
Jun 30, 2005

by exmarx
Broken Cake

The Joe Man posted:

I put $100 on Bernie on each of the 5 states. Just one win out of five will make my money back.

I'm a GENIUS :dukedog:

Did you include profit fees in this calculation?

Fidel Castronaut
Dec 25, 2004

Houston, we're Havana problem.
$100 in each state gets you this many shares, at current prices:

CT 1428

PA 1000

MD 3333

DE 2000

RI 250

He loses all or only wins RI and that is going to be a bad day.

The Joe Man
Apr 7, 2007

Flirting With Apathetic Waitresses Since 1984

Necc0 posted:

Did you include profit fees in this calculation?

Yeah, other than RI the payout on each is $1k+.

StevePerry
Sep 5, 2003

don't stop believin

C7ty1 posted:

Don't bet on polls.

don't bet on polls
August through October we will only have polls to bet on.

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Vox Nihili
May 28, 2008

Aliquid posted:

RI is becoming increasingly non-white, which is why I'm in on Clinton.

7.5% black population as of 2010. Oklahoma is 8%, for comparison.

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