|
I just got 500 shares of Indiana Trump yes at .44. Thanks luzers.
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 04:48
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 29, 2024 08:27 |
|
|
L-Boned posted:I just got 500 shares of Indiana Trump yes at .44. Thanks luzers. You probably could have gotten it cheaper if you waited until tomorrow morning when lots of users aren't sleeping.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 04:53
|
|
|
Gyges posted:You probably could have gotten it cheaper if you waited until tomorrow morning when lots of users aren't sleeping. Possibly, but I don't think it will take long for people to figure out that it will backfire big time on Cruz.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 04:55
|
|
|
lol the kasich winning 2 or more market... Sorry vox does he actually have any chance in the PNW if Cruz pushes his voters that way? I still feel like those are prime trump territory, but I guess there are no polls? just bailed at my buy-in price in the Dem Pennsylvania MoV +13 market based on this. I'll just camp out on the PPP twitter account until I get an update there - this scares me in the short-term, even if I'm pretty confident in YES here regardless
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:02
|
|
|
thethreeman posted:lol the kasich winning 2 or more market... Sorry vox Really good time to buy in on No. Kasich isn't looking competitive anywhere. Hopefully the price stays low until Tuesday when I get some money free.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:07
|
|
|
Bought a few hundred of Kasich NO in Oregon. I happen to feel like this agreement isn't going to look good in the eyes of people who actually want their votes to have the gravity that they deserve.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:08
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Bought a few hundred of Kasich NO in Oregon. Yeah this huge boom for Cruz and Kasich seems misguided. IMO it's the death knell of their efforts.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:11
|
|
|
why the gently caress is this Cruz poo poo driving down the price of Pence NO why do people think outright collusion and shenanigans are going to make unpopular incumbent GOP more popular
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:17
|
|
|
Kasich RI saw an uptick and they aren't even talking about colluding in that state, not that they have time to anyway.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:19
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Yeah this huge boom for Cruz and Kasich seems misguided. IMO it's the death knell of their efforts. If I were Cruz I wouldn't have done it. This deal still won't win him any friends with the people that matter and in a contested convention he will not be the nominee.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:37
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Yeah this huge boom for Cruz and Kasich seems misguided. IMO it's the death knell of their efforts.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:41
|
|
|
Peachstapler posted:Have any of the recent IN polls questioned where the second choice votes would go? With Kasich hovering around 15% there it might be enough, but the agreement could turn more undecideds away from Cruz, so in the end any movement might just be a wash. The Fox News IN poll says that a Cruz/Trump race has Trump winning by 2.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 05:54
|
|
|
Aliquid posted:If I were Cruz I wouldn't have done it. This deal still won't win him any friends with the people that matter and in a contested convention he will not be the nominee. If Cruz can get it to a second ballot he'll win due to Ron Pauling all the delegates he could. He doesn't care what people think about it. Either Cruz' internal polling shows that this is the best chance at tripping Trump, or he's planning to campaign the gently caress out of Indiana and then immediately reneg on the deal. Most likely the Kasich and Cruz internal polling shows that his is the most likely strategy to maximize NeverTrump delegates. Being mathematically eliminated from reaching 1237 almost certainly makes Cruz a deadlier opponent for Trump, before we were getting the nice face of Cruz trying to get all these idiots to see his divine right to be the candidate. Now he's gonna have to show them through inquisition.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 06:02
|
|
|
PPP released early! http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/clinton-sanders-close-in-ctpari-trump-headed-for-big-wins.html D CT: Clinton 48, Sanders 46 PA: Clinton 51, Sanders 41 (note the PA 13 MoV Market...) RI: Sanders 49, Clinton 45 (reminder, only other poll is a meh Clinton +9 with ~25% undecided) R CT: Trump 59, Kasich 25, Cruz 13 PA: Trump 51, Cruz 25, Kasich 22 RI: Trump 61, Kasich 23, Cruz 13 Markets are fairly asleep so far - are you? Social Studies 3rd Period has issued a correction as of 12:06 on Apr 25, 2016 |
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 12:02
|
|
|
C7ty1 posted:PPP released early! http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2016/04/clinton-sanders-close-in-ctpari-trump-headed-for-big-wins.html RI-D looks to be expected. The PA-D and CT-D look a bit low. Has PPP's accuracy in Closed Primaries gotten any better?
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 14:07
|
|
|
Those PPP polls are ridiculous. The Trump 50+ All market is collapsing (yes going up), and the Bernie dropout market is losing steam, too.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 16:20
|
|
|
It would be really sad if a small win in 1/5 states on Tuesday was all it took for Bernie to stay in the race. That really seems like the reasoning for Dropout Yes dipping. e: I didn't see how close that poll is in CT. Fidel Castronaut has issued a correction as of 16:39 on Apr 25, 2016 |
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 16:27
|
|
|
I'm in Penn MOV on Yes now. I think Clinton will easily beat that PPP poll.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 17:18
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:I'm in Penn MOV on Yes now. I think Clinton will easily beat that PPP poll. A Harper Polling poll also hit today showing PA at a 28 point margin. It won't be that either.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 17:31
|
|
|
time to buy cheap hill yes in wv?
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 17:40
|
|
|
Abel Wingnut posted:time to buy cheap hill yes in wv?
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 17:57
|
|
|
Abel Wingnut posted:time to buy cheap hill yes in wv? depends: do you expect there to be a poll putting her tied or up, or for perceived momentum from big wins on tuesday to spike the price? if so do it, if not, don't do it.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 18:02
|
|
|
Abel Wingnut posted:time to buy cheap hill yes in wv? I would focus on the Tuesday markets and end of month markets so you can get a quick return and reinvest, as a general matter. Always good to diversify, though.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 18:14
|
|
|
Vox Nihili posted:Those PPP polls are ridiculous. The Trump 50+ All market is collapsing (yes going up), and the Bernie dropout market is losing steam, too. I think Trump might do it. Cruz and Kasich are a mess.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 19:48
|
|
|
Well Trump 50% All No is now at 70c, in my judgment that's cheap but it looks like the Yes crowd is very enthusiastic. So far he's only but 50% in his home state, and 4 of the 5 primaries tomorrow are closed to independents.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 20:14
|
|
|
New ARG poll showed Trump at 55 in MD, which is the last of the 5 that was a total mystery more or less. As a reminder, ARG is garbage.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 20:22
|
|
|
It hasn't been the most fun to go to sleep with +750 in my gain/loss category and wake up to +350. It has rebounded somewhat but that is one reason that I'm out after the primaries. This stuff is too nerve-racking.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 20:38
|
|
|
Fidel Castronaut posted:It hasn't been the most fun to go to sleep with +750 in my gain/loss category and wake up to +350. It has rebounded somewhat but that is one reason that I'm out after the primaries. This stuff is too nerve-racking. just make money my man
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 22:28
|
|
|
Fidel Castronaut posted:It hasn't been the most fun to go to sleep with +750 in my gain/loss category and wake up to +350. It has rebounded somewhat but that is one reason that I'm out after the primaries. This stuff is too nerve-racking. Yeah, what a cop said. Maybe you should have sold at +750! But that's still a decent return and clearly you're doing something right. If it's stressing you that bad, cash out of the markets now with the sweet profits and turn to another. e: alternatively, don't go to sleep invested, shrug
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 22:31
|
|
|
I think it was vox who gave some great advice earlier about how you should always take gains asap in markets where a single factor could drop and gently caress everything up.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 22:33
|
|
|
All sage advice. Investing everything in Sanders Yes for the presidency now! (f'real thanks for the tips, fellas!)
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 22:35
|
|
|
a cop posted:I think it was vox who gave some great advice earlier about how you should always take gains asap in markets where a single factor could drop and gently caress everything up. isn't that true of all markets?
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 22:44
|
|
|
Abel Wingnut posted:isn't that true of all markets? Kinda..there are definitely markets that carry far more risk than others though.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 22:46
|
|
|
a cop posted:I think it was vox who gave some great advice earlier about how you should always take gains asap in markets where a single factor could drop and gently caress everything up. It has to be something reasonable though. Hillary dying or getting arrested would have destroyed the BIDENRUN market, but otherwise that was a classic case of dumping as much money as you could afford and riding it out to the end. A +750 to +350 movement there because of a bad news cycle would not have mattered and it would have been a bad idea to cash out at 750 if riding it out to the end would have garnered even more profit. For volatile markets like polls, you always have to be wary of outlier gently caress up polls or random news stories or even something in the comments section that drastically swing a market. That's why everyone says don't bet on polls. There are too many factors and it's nigh impossible to handicap those correctly, there's no edge there. You're just straight up gambling.
|
|
#
?
Apr 25, 2016 22:47
|
|
|
a cop posted:I think it was vox who gave some great advice earlier about how you should always take gains asap in markets where a single factor could drop and gently caress everything up. Now I just need to follow my own advice!!! (Though I did today by cashing out of the Penn Dem MOV market).
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2016 00:02
|
|
|
nachos posted:For volatile markets like polls, you always have to be wary of outlier gently caress up polls or random news stories or even something in the comments section that drastically swing a market. That's why everyone says don't bet on polls. There are too many factors and it's nigh impossible to handicap those correctly, there's no edge there. You're just straight up gambling. It was a few weeks ago where Congressional Approval was like, .95 one way the day or so of the market ending. No more polls in sight. Everything was in the clear. then oops one of the places that does that poll every month or so came out and put it under the threshold and the market flipped!!!
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2016 00:05
|
|
|
C7ty1 posted:New ARG poll showed Trump at 55 in MD, which is the last of the 5 that was a total mystery more or less. IMO he's still got less than even odds of pulling it off in both Maryland and Pennsylvania individually, and no better than 80% chance in any of the other 3 states. The surge is still going, though, Yes 5 now up to 40c. I'm maxed on no averaging around 80c now, hail satan.
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2016 00:05
|
|
|
Fidel Castronaut posted:It hasn't been the most fun to go to sleep with +750 in my gain/loss category and wake up to +350. It has rebounded somewhat but that is one reason that I'm out after the primaries. This stuff is too nerve-racking. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=z8Z6qWRugCY Also never have enough money on this site that it causes you stress
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2016 01:22
|
|
|
having fun in MD Dem MoV >20 today. Made a killing by buying up NOs in the teens after the weird ARG poll came out this morning and selling at 30c. I'm planning to get in now on the YES side, since it seems like such a ridiculously favorable state to Hillary. Does anyone have a stake on either side?
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2016 01:30
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 29, 2024 08:27 |
|
|
the mov markets move tons on election day. i wouldn't hold either side until results come in, then i'd start playing the waves
|
|
#
?
Apr 26, 2016 01:34
|
|