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Well Bernie does tend to win among those who want policies to be less liberal than Obama. What I'm saying is look at Oklahoma.
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Apr 27, 2016 15:27
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Interesting update from this morning: http://election.princeton.edu/2016/04/27/trump-on-a-glide-path-since-mid-march/ Seems to point to Trump has a pretty good chance of hitting 1237
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Apr 27, 2016 15:28
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watwat posted:Interesting update from this morning: Yeah, I'm running the numbers, and NJ having 51 delegates and WTA really makes things easy for him. He has to do reasonably well in CA, clean up in WV (which he's polled to do) and then get simple majorities in OR and WA...it's not a 100% slam dunk, but he's looking good to make the cut.
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Apr 27, 2016 15:51
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cheese eats mouse posted:Gonna lose it if KY goes Bernie while having Bevin as the governor. Like what the gently caress.
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Apr 27, 2016 16:20
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For whatever reason Bernie seems to do poorly with the Democratic version of Trump populations and better with the Cruz populations. WV is deep, deep Trump country, so I'm not picking up Bernie shares there. That said, it could be a very close race. Another thing is that Southerners absolutely hate Bernie. Black Southerners and white Southerners both support Clinton at much higher rates than their respective populations elsewhere. Does West Virginia share some of that character? It feels a bit like an "in between" state that doesn't necessarily fit in any category, but it seems more like Virginia than Nebraska.
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Apr 27, 2016 16:22
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Vox Nihili posted:For whatever reason Bernie seems to do poorly with the Democratic version of Trump populations and better with the Cruz populations. WV is deep, deep Trump country, so I'm not picking up Bernie shares there. That said, it could be a very close race.
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Apr 27, 2016 16:28
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I have a feeling the berners are going to move to the FBI market over the next few weeks. We'll see if there's enough of them left that haven't been demoralized to make a dent in it.
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Apr 27, 2016 16:55
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It has begun! https://www.predictit.org/Market/2074/Who-will-lead-in-Trump-v-Clinton-polling-on-May-5th
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Apr 27, 2016 17:01
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Warning: Polling market.
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Apr 27, 2016 17:02
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Don't👏🏻Bet👏🏻on👏🏻Polls
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Apr 27, 2016 17:43
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Also, it's Clinton vs Trump of the RCP Average. Which is currently C +8.5. Unless they drop all the polls and/or get a few Trump +15s, the Trump over Clinton option is a gold-plated toilet. Edit: All markets below 6% are pretty much saturated at this point for their likely results. drat. OAquinas has issued a correction as of 17:55 on Apr 27, 2016 |
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Apr 27, 2016 17:48
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Vox Nihili posted:It has begun! https://www.predictit.org/Market/2074/Who-will-lead-in-Trump-v-Clinton-polling-on-May-5th yeeeeeeeeeeeeees
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Apr 27, 2016 18:00
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I do think it's interesting that Bernie got clobbered and essentially conceded the nomination, but his shares in WV soared by 15 cents over night. Oh well, I'm just going to continue sinking $$$ into Hillary
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Apr 27, 2016 18:17
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The only thing that changed about WV from the day before is that Bernie spoke in WV and Hillary filled in another border of WV and won most of that. One of those should count a lot more than the other but the market is dumb imho.
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Apr 27, 2016 18:20
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Trump's absolute rock bottom at this point is 1200 but he's almost guaranteed 1220 plus pledged. Add at least two dozen PA delegates and another couple of dozen stragglers from everywhere and, on paper, he has this. I don't see the market acknowledging this for a long time, though, maybe not even into July. He could have 1300 pledged and still trade at 95.
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Apr 27, 2016 18:20
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Adar posted:Trump's absolute rock bottom at this point is 1200 but he's almost guaranteed 1220 plus pledged. Add at least two dozen PA delegates and another couple of dozen stragglers from everywhere and, on paper, he has this. I maxed on 1237+ last night. No one expected him to get a near sweep of every delegate including the unbound Pennsylvania delegates. The AP counter used by Predictit apparently includes unbound delegates that pledge support to a candidate.
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Apr 27, 2016 18:31
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Oh wow, I picked up 100 4.0 to 5.9 for 5 bucks. Decent buy imo.
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Apr 27, 2016 18:31
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Peachstapler posted:I went ahead and threw something together using the NYT results-by-county maps.  I really do get the demographics argument, but even vastly-majority-white counties in states that are right next door have gone for hillary. I'm sure I'm overenthusiastic about her here, but even without the context of Bernie laying off staffers and focusing on CA, I think this market is 50/50 at most...
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Apr 27, 2016 21:39
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Cruz picked Fiorina as his VP. I'm wondering if this will affect the GOP VP market, even though personally I don't think Cruz will get nominated even if there's a brokered convention.
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Apr 27, 2016 22:32
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thethreeman posted:This is awesome, thanks! That said, I still think your map shows Hillary has more strength here... The mountains run along the far east side of WV, while most of the population in the State (incl Kanawha county) is in the Piedmont region, which, coincidentally, is the same region as those counties I highlighted from SW Pennsylvania in my last post Bernie focusing on California was enough to push his Yes below 50, you're right.
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Apr 27, 2016 22:42
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The North Tower posted:Cruz picked Fiorina as his VP. I'm wondering if this will affect the GOP VP market, even though personally I don't think Cruz will get nominated even if there's a brokered convention. The people thinking Cruz will snag the nom probably is keeping her no numbers in the 80s, but outside of that case I'd say she's out of the running now. The VP market is ripe for spec, but it's only a notch above poll bets in how close to "Actual Gambling" it is.
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Apr 27, 2016 23:07
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Fiorina NO is now the same market as Trump Nom
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Apr 27, 2016 23:11
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Daniel Bryan posted:Fiorina NO is now the same market as Trump Nom Gilmore yet draws breath.
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Apr 27, 2016 23:15
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The North Tower posted:Cruz picked Fiorina as his VP. I'm wondering if this will affect the GOP VP market, even though personally I don't think Cruz will get nominated even if there's a brokered convention. Something to keep in mind: Fiorina VP may be a way to stealth-hedge against Trump winning RNOM. Might be worth keeping in mind if some bomb drops and the markets start panicking.
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Apr 28, 2016 00:13
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ORPRMRY16.GOP Cruz Yes is only 10 cents. I dont see any polls posted yet. OR is a closed primary. Ted is a nasty guy and may back out of "the deal"
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Apr 28, 2016 16:16
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Upside Potential posted:ORPRMRY16.GOP Cruz Yes is only 10 cents. I dont see any polls posted yet. OR is a closed primary. Ted is a nasty guy and may back out of "the deal" 
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Apr 28, 2016 16:28
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Trump will win Oregon, though. The Kasich campaign is delusional over the straw poll from the Romney-fan-club Dorchester Conference in March. I hope some of y'all got some Kasich NO when it was in the high 60s/low 70s the other day.
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Apr 28, 2016 16:35
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a cop posted:Oh wow, I picked up 100 4.0 to 5.9 for 5 bucks. Decent buy imo. 
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Apr 28, 2016 17:57
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New markets for monthly fundraising totals and Indiana MOV up.
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Apr 28, 2016 18:12
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For the first time ever I'm betting Bernie YES. .25 in Indiana was too cheap; I expect that gap to narrow before election day.
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Apr 28, 2016 20:20
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Aliquid posted:For the first time ever I'm betting Bernie YES. .25 in Indiana was too cheap; I expect that gap to narrow before election day. Yeah he's within MoE. I'd stagger some sell orders now just so you're in the front of the line for the election day swings.
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Apr 28, 2016 21:36
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a cop posted:Oh wow, I picked up 100 4.0 to 5.9 for 5 bucks. Decent buy imo. Thanks for the tip by the way. That's the one cool thing with polling markets, sometimes people really overvalue the status quo.
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Apr 29, 2016 09:36
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June primary markets are live!
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Apr 29, 2016 18:12
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God bless all the morons who sold Trump and bought Cruz when the "alliance" was announced.
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May 1, 2016 14:36
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holy crap what happened... trump 1237+ went from ~80 to 92 overnight? 
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May 1, 2016 18:08
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Woke up to +$800, looks like reality is sinking in at last!
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May 1, 2016 18:14
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Vox Nihili posted:Woke up to +$800, looks like reality is sinking in at last! Not quite up 800 but doing healthy today. the Cruz pumpers kept Trump yes in IN under .74 until the WSJ/NBC poll this morning then the dam broke.
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May 1, 2016 20:12
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FourLeaf posted:holy crap what happened... trump 1237+ went from ~80 to 92 overnight? Trump+15 in IN means he will sweep or nearly sweep Indiana which in turn means the only way he is missing 1237 is with a complete collapse in California.
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May 1, 2016 20:12
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FourLeaf posted:holy crap what happened... trump 1237+ went from ~80 to 92 overnight? Trump is way way outperforming expectations in Indiana which was where Cruz was making his last stand. With how polls stand Trump can seriously underperform in Indiana and still sweep this up easily. All he has to do is not die at this point.
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May 1, 2016 21:07
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What do you guys think about the GOP South Dakota and Montana primary markets? They've recently swung to something like 75c Trump 25c Cruz, but assuming Cruz is around and contesting them these primaries should still be his to lose.
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May 2, 2016 02:06
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