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I'm wondering the same thing about Nebraska. I doubled down against Trump there after the price started to fall today, since people moved the market 20 cents on nothing more than the Indiana poll, as far as I can tell.
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May 2, 2016 03:03
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Parakeet vs. Phone posted:I'm wondering the same thing about Nebraska. I doubled down against Trump there after the price started to fall today, since people moved the market 20 cents on nothing more than the Indiana poll, as far as I can tell. Cruz is going down, man. I wouldn't bet on any future market against Trump at any price. Definitely don't bet on his winning if you feel the price is wrong, but betting against him is asking to lose at this point. I have a max bet there against Cruz at average price .33 and I'm not selling. Edit: I'm also not being against hillary even though I think she's overpriced in west Virginia. EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 03:31 on May 2, 2016 |
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May 2, 2016 03:29
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Yeah I don't know what his finances look like but if he gets wiped in Indiana I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign totally imploded. Same goes for Bernie, really. Both campaigns seem to be on thin ice and could go under any day now. Just something to factor into your calculus.
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May 2, 2016 03:44
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I think he'll lose Indiana, but it will be close enough that the True Believers will hang on until California. The fleeing of the non-devout is already well underway. With an hour to go, they're 14,000 calls behind the goal for the day, for example, and lots of posts about fundraising coming up short
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May 2, 2016 03:47
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If Kasich can stay in the race with his skeleton crew, I can see Cruz and Sanders doing so as well. Doesn't mean they are winning anything, but they will probably stick around.
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May 2, 2016 03:55
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Necc0 posted:Yeah I don't know what his finances look like but if he gets wiped in Indiana I wouldn't be surprised if his campaign totally imploded. Same goes for Bernie, really. Both campaigns seem to be on thin ice and could go under any day now. Just something to factor into your calculus. I don't know. Bernie has been effectively out of contention for weeks and he still managed to pick up Rhode Island. It might be the same for Cruz--I doubt he'll give up until Trump actually hits 1237.
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May 2, 2016 04:18
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I'm not saying he can't still win states I'm saying these markets are also carry an implicit 'if he doesn't drop out first' in addition to if he'll win it. Though I could see him still winning Oregon even if he suspended.
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May 2, 2016 04:24
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I feel like Cruz currently has issues that bernie never had. If Trump and Hillary both died today, I know bernie would be DNOM but I do not know that Cruz would be RNOM.
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May 2, 2016 04:27
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New dropout markets up and Dem brokered convention market up
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May 2, 2016 20:28
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Trump.NO is suuuuper cheap in NE. If Cruz stays in that could be one to watch.
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May 2, 2016 20:31
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Whoa Bernie dropout is way high at .85 edit: lol NO swung from .15 to .97 in the time it took me to load the page 
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May 2, 2016 20:45
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Parakeet vs. Phone posted:Thanks for the tip by the way. That's the one cool thing with polling markets, sometimes people really overvalue the status quo. No problem!
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May 2, 2016 23:12
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More peoples' thoughts on Nebraska?
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May 2, 2016 23:53
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Aliquid posted:More peoples' thoughts on Nebraska? This is Cruz's last night as a serious contender.
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May 3, 2016 00:39
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Tyler Pedigo comes out in favor of bernie in Indiana, it was enough to get me to sell my Hillary shares at a small loss.
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May 3, 2016 02:14
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Is Tyler Pedigo Kid Wonder's 52-47 Sanders prediction driving up the Indiana Dem prices?
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May 3, 2016 02:14
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Peachstapler posted:Is Tyler Pedigo Kid Wonder's 52-47 Sanders prediction driving up the Indiana Dem prices? I don't know, but 75-25 sounds about right in terms of matching the probability of an upset. The polls have been pretty close, though Clinton has a clear edge. MOV market should be fun! Edit: Bernie No at 70c is probably a soft buy. Edit2: Benchmark puts it at Hillary +3: https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/727307869360521216 Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 02:51 on May 3, 2016 |
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May 3, 2016 02:42
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I bet Pence is super happy to have hitched his wagon to Cruz right now
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May 3, 2016 09:50
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dispense of pence
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May 3, 2016 10:15
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Gotta love that in the WV dem market, both "yes" and "no" for both candidates are all above 50. It's like the market has no idea who will win!
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May 3, 2016 15:20
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I am so glad SA introduced me to this site. I absolutely love the relentless trolling that takes place in the polling markets.
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May 3, 2016 15:49
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EngineerSean posted:I feel like Cruz currently has issues that bernie never had. If Trump and Hillary both died today, I know bernie would be DNOM but I do not know that Cruz would be RNOM. I don't know about that. If she died today I might give even odds that the D party would Hubert Humphrey somebody like Biden into the spot instead.
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May 3, 2016 16:33
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EngineerSean posted:Tyler Pedigo comes out in favor of bernie in Indiana, it was enough to get me to sell my Hillary shares at a small loss. 
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May 3, 2016 16:36
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Hillary leads in new PPP poll of WV, but only among democrats. With independents, Bernie takes the lead.
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May 3, 2016 20:08
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hillary leads in new PPP poll of WV, but only among democrats. With independents, Bernie takes the lead. The WV shift to Sanders today is absolutely insane though, I'm surprised. Scaled poo poo back and only invested my $250 RI wins into Indiana today (Bernie YES) since I couldn't withdraw anyways. Going to bet baby-bite style until I make back my previous losses.
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May 3, 2016 20:21
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Clinton has a -7 net favorability among likely Democratic primary voters in West Virginia somehow, wow.
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May 3, 2016 20:21
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pathetic little tramp posted:Hillary leads in new PPP poll of WV, but only among democrats. With independents, Bernie takes the lead. What are the logistics of WV? I know it's "mixed", but can you switch parties same-day? e: Nvm, looks like I's can vote in the D or R race. Trash Trick has issued a correction as of 20:56 on May 3, 2016 |
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May 3, 2016 20:27
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lol WV has been quite a ride so far
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May 3, 2016 20:27
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Bernie's going to win WV by being ABC
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May 3, 2016 20:55
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Vox Nihili posted:Clinton has a -7 net favorability among likely Democratic primary voters in West Virginia somehow, wow. What was the number for Obama in 2012? Didn't he lose a significant percentage of votes to a criminal?
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May 3, 2016 21:11
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I'm playing the long game, but I bought some shares a little too early
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May 3, 2016 21:59
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Wow, the last time trump looked like this in the markets was like in late February. Cruz has just completely collapsed in Indiana the last couple days according to not only polling but observers on the ground, from what I'm hearing. Cruz dropout by may is super tempting right now,I could easily see him gone by the end of the week if tonight is bad enough. How's his cash doing, anyway?
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May 3, 2016 22:00
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pedigowned
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May 3, 2016 22:09
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Indiana exits look shockingly good for Bernie so far.
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May 3, 2016 22:39
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Glad I bought some 20c Bernie lotto tickets. Should be a fun market.
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May 3, 2016 22:55
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Gonna be a swingy market for sure.
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May 3, 2016 22:59
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My 76c Bernie.IN.NO shares are not looking good. Any sense of whether the early reporting will come from Bernie or Hillary-friendly areas? Also, when will early voting numbers be reported?
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May 3, 2016 23:06
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Stinky_Pete posted:I'm playing the long game, but I bought some shares a little too early Please Don't Troll tsa posted:Wow, the last time trump looked like this in the markets was like in late February. Cruz has just completely collapsed in Indiana the last couple days according to not only polling but observers on the ground, from what I'm hearing. I'm not sure if he even peaked this high last time tbh
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May 3, 2016 23:08
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Most polls are now closed in indiana. There's some in the western part of the state are still open since they are in the central (?) time zone. edit: oh no Bernie huge pile of hamburger has issued a correction as of 23:10 on May 3, 2016 |
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May 3, 2016 23:08
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| # ? May 29, 2024 20:26 |
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https://twitter.com/benchmarkpol/status/727616729854136320
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May 3, 2016 23:13
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