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Would it be legal to sell my predictit advice/system to random people? I've made pretty good money over the past couple years with it and if a person were to buy my
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May 7, 2016 21:33
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thegoonofaudio posted:Would it be legal to sell my predictit advice/system to random people? I've made pretty good money over the past couple years with it and if a person were to buy my Does it matter? If you actually know your poo poo, just have them throw you a percentage of the winnings afterwards.
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May 7, 2016 21:43
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thegoonofaudio posted:Would it be legal to sell my predictit advice/system to random people? I've made pretty good money over the past couple years with it and if a person were to buy my I don't know of any reason you'd get in trouble. But you should definitely post all of your tips here for free so we can lose a bunch of money and blame you for it. 
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May 7, 2016 23:15
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thegoonofaudio posted:Would it be legal to sell my predictit advice/system to random people? I've made pretty good money over the past couple years with it and if a person were to buy my Depends on your particular euro country since they all have way different views on gambling.
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May 7, 2016 23:22
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thegoonofaudio posted:Would it be legal to sell my predictit advice/system to random people? I've made pretty good money over the past couple years with it and if a person were to buy my that is legal afaik but this is considered the lowest lifeform in the betting world
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May 8, 2016 00:28
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thegoonofaudio posted:Would it be legal to sell my predictit advice/system to random people? I've made pretty good money over the past couple years with it and if a person were to buy my If you're in America at least yea, it's super legal to sell what amounts to gambling tip books. No clue where you are though so there may be different rules but as long as you add the typical 'alright this isn't a 100% sure fire win thing, markets change suddenly and chance exists' boilerplate go hog wild. You can even call it a surefire way to make money as long as you add *not actually surefire somewhere.
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May 8, 2016 01:05
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He said he's been doing this for years so I'm assuming he's not American since predictit has only been around for about a year
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May 8, 2016 01:24
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Necc0 posted:He said he's been doing this for years so I'm assuming he's not American since predictit has only been around for about a year don't bring critical thinking and logic into this, the gambling thread of all places, sir. But yea in that case ~consult your local laws~ because I got no clue how it works overseas.
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May 8, 2016 01:52
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Oh turns out it was established back in November 2014. I thought it went live around March last year
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May 8, 2016 03:22
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No on Gingrich seems like free money to me. That or lots of entertainment, so. e: I'm also going to park some money into Yes on Kasich. One reported meeting between the two is all it would take to cash out at a reasonable price. Historically there's always meetings between dropped out candidates and the presumptive nominee, right?
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May 8, 2016 22:58
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Joe Son posted:Historically there's always meetings between dropped out candidates and the presumptive nominee, right? Reminder that the nominee is Donald Trump.
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May 8, 2016 23:45
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Arkane posted:Reminder that the nominee is Donald Trump. Who's your pick on veep? I'm honestly interested in your reasoning.
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May 9, 2016 05:34
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Aliquid posted:Who's your pick on veep? I'm honestly interested in your reasoning. If it's from the political realm, Rick Scott, Mary Fallin, or some other flunkie that is term-limited or otherwise in a dead end position with no political future outside of Trump's veep slot. He says he's not going to pick a general/someone from the military, but that is one area of extreme deficiency so if he had any advisers worth a drat they'd tell him to start putting feelers out for whoever is interested. Think the majority of names on PredictIt's list would not want to do it, and I'm short all of them except Rick Scott. Of those that would do it, I doubt Christie's wife would let their family become any more of a laughingstock. Maaaaybe Jeff Sessions, although seems like that would exacerbate his weaknesses. Don't think he'd ever be desperate enough to go for Huckabee or Carson, who offer him pretty much nothing besides being a dimwitted lapdog. People pushing Gingrich keep forgetting that the dude will be 73 when the convention rolls around. That ain't happening. The venn diagram of appealing VPs and people who want to be his VP is not going to have a very large overlap area.
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May 9, 2016 05:49
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Tatum Girlparts posted:If you're in America at least yea, it's super legal to sell what amounts to gambling tip books. No clue where you are though so there may be different rules but as long as you add the typical 'alright this isn't a 100% sure fire win thing, markets change suddenly and chance exists' boilerplate go hog wild. You can even call it a surefire way to make money as long as you add *not actually surefire somewhere. Forgot to mention I'm in the US. I guess technically it hasn't been two years yet since predictit has been here since late 2014. Nice to hear I won't have to answer "so what brings you here cellmate?" "I sold my prediction market guides and got caught in a federal sting." Vox Nihili posted:But you should definitely post all of your tips here for free so we can lose a bunch of money and blame you for it. Arkane posted:that is legal afaik True, I'll definitely be posting all my trades here for free too so people can praise or mock them.
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May 9, 2016 09:37
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What do you guys think about Kentucky? Seems like it should be an easy Hillary win but I have nothing solid to back that up. Seems like a good buy at the moment. I also think WV is out of whack but I probably won't put any money there until election day.
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May 9, 2016 17:16
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Necc0 posted:What do you guys think about Kentucky? Seems like it should be an easy Hillary win but I have nothing solid to back that up. Seems like a good buy at the moment. I also think WV is out of whack but I probably won't put any money there until election day. For WV, just note that I get to hear Hillary say "We're going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of work" about 4-8 times a day on network TV. They're using her to tar and feather other democrats, so, she's getting hammered right now. No idea if that's happening in Kentucky.
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May 9, 2016 18:59
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It's your crazy  poll-betting uncle. Congressional Approval Above 14.5 on 5/13? Has No at 80 cents. RCP is currently 13.8, and even if the two oldest polls are dropped the average just goes up to 14. It's safe1 money. 1 Money not actually safe. Subject to change. Not valid outside the continental US. e: VV I'm betting "no", so worse polls are good for me! OAquinas has issued a correction as of 20:23 on May 9, 2016 |
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May 9, 2016 19:20
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OAquinas posted:It's your crazy Obviously 5/13 is a while away. One to keep an eye on, potentially, but I think we're a little too far out still. .7 is a big gap to overcome, and you're assuming those polls aren't replaced with same/worse results.  don't bet on polls
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May 9, 2016 19:31
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Arkane posted:If it's from the political realm, Rick Scott, Mary Fallin, or some other flunkie that is term-limited or otherwise in a dead end position with no political future outside of Trump's veep slot. He says he's not going to pick a general/someone from the military, but that is one area of extreme deficiency so if he had any advisers worth a drat they'd tell him to start putting feelers out for whoever is interested. The third circle is people who flatter his ego, so Huckabee/Carson/Newt/Christie are all probably better bets than they sound that said, I agree with the thesis
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May 9, 2016 23:50
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I still like the long-shot theory of Jim Webb that someone posted in the GOP thread. Not enough to bet on it though
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May 10, 2016 00:00
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Arkane posted:If it's from the political realm, Rick Scott, Mary Fallin, or some other flunkie that is term-limited or otherwise in a dead end position with no political future outside of Trump's veep slot. He says he's not going to pick a general/someone from the military, but that is one area of extreme deficiency so if he had any advisers worth a drat they'd tell him to start putting feelers out for whoever is interested. No way in hell Trump picks Rick Scott. Florida doesn't even like Rick Scott. Not even Trump can be crazy enough to pick a man who looks like that and holds the record for medicare fraud. He brings absolutely nothing to the ticket except even more negatives. Unless Trump is the most masterful trojan horse ever and he's sitting front and center with a big ol' smile on his orange face at Hillary's inauguration.
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May 10, 2016 02:10
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For those continuing to try and predict Trump Veepstakes, looks like Corey Lewandowski is overseeing the selection process now, with Carson etc. working with him on it. Good luck!
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May 10, 2016 15:17
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Gyges posted:No way in hell Trump picks Rick Scott. Florida doesn't even like Rick Scott. Not even Trump can be crazy enough to pick a man who looks like that and holds the record for medicare fraud. He brings absolutely nothing to the ticket except even more negatives. Florida hates him, but....they re-elected him over a relatively popular (or at least, non-negative favorability) Crist. He will win no votes in SoFla by picking Scott, but outside of older cubans Trump wasn't going to pick up much down there anyway. I4 corridor republicans may be more receptive to Trump with Scott on the ballot, and Florida is a must win for his electoral map. He's not out of the running just because he's an evil lord who built his fortune over the corpses of his clients; if that was a deal-breaker in america he'd never have been elected in the first place.
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May 10, 2016 15:23
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Meanwhile, everyone is freaking out about the PPP / Quinn polls this morning in different ways. Bernbots are crowing that they were right. (See? See?) Some general panic by Democrats. Trump supporters being smug toward #NeverTrump. And people like Nate Silver, Harry Enten, PPP and one of the RCP guys telling people to chill the gently caress out. It's great!
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May 10, 2016 15:33
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yo how is the brokered convention for democrats trading at 8 cents? there are only two candidates running. I don't know if O'Malley has a pledged delegate but the odds that someone doesn't get a majority has to be microscopic
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May 10, 2016 15:38
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Oh. And one more thing. There was a version of today's PPP poll hosted somewhere that was a fake. As far as I can tell, the numbers were all the same except for the Obama Approval question, which had it four points lower than the real poll. The fake forgot to edit the crosstabs that had the real numbers, but that might not be a giveaway in the future. Just remember to think about a poll if you get it early / not from the source!
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May 10, 2016 15:41
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C7ty1 posted:Oh. And one more thing. There was a version of today's PPP poll hosted somewhere that was a fake. As far as I can tell, the numbers were all the same except for the Obama Approval question, which had it four points lower than the real poll. The fake forgot to edit the crosstabs that had the real numbers, but that might not be a giveaway in the future. Just remember to think about a poll if you get it early / not from the source! seems like a lot of trouble to go through to win $850
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May 10, 2016 15:42
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EngineerSean posted:seems like a lot of trouble to go through to win $850  There were people that did shoddy, fake websites that swayed the (admittedly low-volume) Yats/Ukraine markets. With enough in, you can make a decent chunk of change on swings both ways before people figure out what the hell is going on.
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May 10, 2016 15:48
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EngineerSean posted:yo how is the brokered convention for democrats trading at 8 cents? there are only two candidates running. I don't know if O'Malley has a pledged delegate but the odds that someone doesn't get a majority has to be microscopic hahaha I didn't even realize this was a market. Just put in an order at $.90 in anticipation of Bernie taking WV today. I really love this site sometimes.
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May 10, 2016 15:58
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EngineerSean posted:yo how is the brokered convention for democrats trading at 8 cents? there are only two candidates running. I don't know if O'Malley has a pledged delegate but the odds that someone doesn't get a majority has to be microscopic There are a bunch of Bernouts who believe Bernie's going to be able to grab 99% of remaining delegates or whatever, to ensure a contested convention. Also O'Malley does have exactly 1 pledged delegate.
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May 10, 2016 16:00
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fishmech posted:There are a bunch of Bernouts who believe Bernie's going to be able to grab 99% of remaining delegates or whatever, to ensure a contested convention. Also O'Malley does have exactly 1 pledged delegate. And that doesn't even trigger the market lol. There's basically zero chance of it being brokered this is free bernout money, basically.
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May 10, 2016 16:08
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Necc0 posted:And that doesn't even trigger the market lol. There's basically zero chance of it being brokered this is free bernout money, basically. Yeah, but payout isn't until the end of July. Probably a lot better things to use the cash for than to net an 8c gain. It's a dumb market to begin with. The Democratic unbound superdelegates make a brokered convention extremely improbable. You'd need 3-4+ viable, closely ranked candidates to drop the totals to the point where no one can snag the nom.
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May 10, 2016 16:16
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OAquinas posted:Yeah, but payout isn't until the end of July. Probably a lot better things to use the cash for than to net an 8c gain. If my orders go through at $.90 that's worth it imo. 11% ROI in 2.5 months is really good.
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May 10, 2016 16:23
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Don't forget the house take. A 10% gain can be had for shorter-term investments, though--but if you're looking for a safe very low risk gain then that's certainly a damned good market for it, so congrats!
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May 10, 2016 16:35
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Normally I don't play with the 'super safe' bets too much because of potential heart-attack/assassination scenarios but there would have to be some Mars Attacks scale event to cause a brokered DEM convention.
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May 10, 2016 17:02
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OAquinas posted:Florida hates him, but....they re-elected him over a relatively popular (or at least, non-negative favorability) Crist. He will win no votes in SoFla by picking Scott, but outside of older cubans Trump wasn't going to pick up much down there anyway. I4 corridor republicans may be more receptive to Trump with Scott on the ballot, and Florida is a must win for his electoral map. This is incorrect. First, Crist was not nearly as popular as he once was. Republicans hated him for switching parties, Democrats hated him for throwing the 2010 Senate race into a 3-way. Further the general belief across all political ideologies was that you couldn't really trust him, since he clearly flips based on what's best for Charlie Crist rather than any actual principle. Second, Rick Scott lost the I-4 Corridor. The I-4 Corridor has become increasingly hostile to all Republicans and Trump probably isn't going to win it. The true secret to Rick Scott's victory is that the Florida Governorship is held in off year elections. This on it's own depresses Democratic turnout. Further, Charlie Crist won absolutely no support by flipping parties. The "strength" of Rick Scott's win largely came off Miami-Dade not turning out to vote and Jacksonville nearly doubling the vote margin from 2010. Even with that, Rick Scott won by 1%, 0.2% better than his victory over ubiquitous Democratic Failure Alex Sink in 2010. Rick Scott just barely wins in off year elections where Republicans are absolutely furious with the Black Man and Democrats in Miami don't show up to vote. If it were virtually any candidate other that Rick Scott those would be conditions for a blowout. Edit: Rick Scott could be an example of the Trump effect. When he won the nomination in 2010, virtually all the establishment GOP in Florida reacted just as the national GOP establishment have reacted to Trump. They threw hissy fits and in many cases refused to campaign for him or endorse him. As a result his share of the vote sank dramatically in what was a Republican wave election. If the animosity between Trump and the national GOP plays out like it did between Scott and the Florida GOP, that's some beatific news delivered by angels for Hillary. Gyges has issued a correction as of 18:38 on May 10, 2016 |
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May 10, 2016 18:31
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The Associated Press @AP BREAKING: AP Interview: Trump says he's narrowed potential VPs to 5 or 6 experienced politicians, has not ruled out Christie. fyi. Also as ever I strongly suggest whoever wants to joins us in the #predictit channel, especially to freak out about returns on primary nights with the rest of us. and getting info like this faster, too!
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May 10, 2016 21:33
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WV MOV market spiking like crazy. I can't play due to ~actual work~ but it looks like a fun one.
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May 10, 2016 22:44
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Went back in on Carson for $15 (500 shares). Worth the longshot to me due to Trump switching out his "VP exploratory head."
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May 11, 2016 00:15
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Oh my god a Paul Ryan primary market
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May 11, 2016 00:22
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