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Lutha Mahtin posted:This is becoming a derail, but....you're wrong. I'm sorry, but I'm a Minnesotan and I cannot stand idly by as someone claims that their lovely pet system disenfranchises fewer people than our gold-star system of same-day precinct registration and no-reason-required absentee mail voting. We have the best system in the country, and the numbers, if you actually look at them, speak to that. I'm confused by this entire debate - is it just about same-day reg? California has live voting in addition to mail voting. Seems like having both options, just like CA and MN both have, is best...? Necc0 posted:New market: Will Rubio run for Senate in 2016? anybody leaning towards yes for any reason?
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Jun 7, 2016 03:31
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Lutha Mahtin posted:This is becoming a derail, but....you're wrong. I'm sorry, but I'm a Minnesotan and I cannot stand idly by as someone claims that their lovely pet system disenfranchises fewer people than our gold-star system of same-day precinct registration and no-reason-required absentee mail voting. We have the best system in the country, and the numbers, if you actually look at them, speak to that. Well Minnesota runs a caucus for primaries which is pretty much the gold standard in killing participation, so it's hard to compare recent numbers. But Oregon, for example, saw a greater than 50% turnout for its Democratic Primary using vote-by-mail. That's waaaay above the average participation rate for the Dems, which has been around 10-20% (not sure if that includes caucuses or what, but im not aware of any other state beating 50% participation). Also, no reason you couldn't follow a vote-by-mail standard and still allow same-day participation. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 03:43 on Jun 7, 2016 |
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Jun 7, 2016 03:40
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thethreeman posted:I'm confused by this entire debate - is it just about same-day reg? California has live voting in addition to mail voting. Seems like having both options, just like CA and MN both have, is best...? My original post contained the explicit example of a hypothetical state that implemented "all-mail voting", which might not be the technical term, but I (naively?) assumed goons were familiar with the fact that all-mail only-mail voting is a definite shift from the many states that have both in-person and distance voting options
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Jun 7, 2016 03:43
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thethreeman posted:anybody leaning towards yes for any reason? If he for some reason suddenly jumps in he's got a decent chance at getting the nomination? It's possible that Rubio jumps back into the Senate race, but it seems pretty unlikely at this point. He's only got a few weeks and everyone else has already started. Plus he was pretty thoroughly crushed by Trump in Florida. My guess would be either he just fucks off to million dollar lobbyist paydays for good, or waits and runs for Governor n 2018. Whoever wins the Republican primary doesn't have the greatest odds in November after all, and if he follows up being crushed in the Presidential race by being crushed in the Senate race then that's pretty much it for any political career.
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Jun 7, 2016 03:52
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Vox Nihili posted:Well Minnesota runs a caucus for primaries which is pretty much the gold standard in killing participation, so it's hard to compare recent numbers. But Oregon, for example, saw a greater than 50% turnout for its Democratic Primary using vote-by-mail. That's waaaay above the average participation rate for the Dems, which has been around 10-20% (not sure if that includes caucuses or what, but im not aware of any other state beating 50% participation). I apologize for my bluntness, but you have again failed at basic facts. Minnesota has a primary election, just not for President: every other (partisan?) race goes to the primary ballot, which in glorious better-than-your-state fashion relies not on partisan registration (because we have none (because it's terrible)), but rather the secret ability for each voter to fill in an oval on the primary ballot that says which party's primary they want to participate in. The caucus system produces candidates for each party who won the party endorsement at their party convention, sure, but this ignores the fact that many successful candidates have ignored the caucus system entirely. For example, oh, y'know, our current two-term governor who raised taxes on the rich, instituted all-day every-day kindergarten, raised the minimum wage (and indexed it to inflation), and is at this very hour staying the course on his pocket-veto of a tax cut bill because the Republican-led House hosed up and put an "or" where an "and" should have been, in order to use it as leverage if a special session of the Legislature is called. Leverage for things like "trying to built a not-totally-garbage transportation system" and other worthy goals. So 
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Jun 7, 2016 03:53
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I apologize for my bluntness, but you have again failed at basic facts. Minnesota has a primary election, just not for President: every other (partisan?) race goes to the primary ballot, which in glorious better-than-your-state fashion relies not on partisan registration (because we have none (because it's terrible)), but rather the secret ability for each voter to fill in an oval on the primary ballot that says which party's primary they want to participate in. The caucus system produces candidates for each party who won the party endorsement at their party convention, sure, but this ignores the fact that many successful candidates have ignored the caucus system entirely. For example, oh, y'know, our current two-term governor who raised taxes on the rich, instituted all-day every-day kindergarten, raised the minimum wage (and indexed it to inflation), and is at this very hour staying the course on his pocket-veto of a tax cut bill because the Republican-led House hosed up and put an "or" where an "and" should have been, in order to use it as leverage if a special session of the Legislature is called. Leverage for things like "trying to built a not-totally-garbage transportation system" and other worthy goals. So http://www.twincities.com/2016/03/02/after-high-turnout-renewed-calls-to-replace-minnesotas-caucus-system/ Holding both a caucus AND a primary is also insane. I bet the primary turnout is abysmal. Post turnout numbers that beat a vote-by-mail state or vacate!!
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Jun 7, 2016 03:58
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Vox Nihili posted:http://www.twincities.com/2016/03/02/after-high-turnout-renewed-calls-to-replace-minnesotas-caucus-system/ Your fishmeching is awful. Moving the goalposts to "heh primaries bitch" is bad, and you should feel bad. I know it's hard to admit when you've been beaten, but it really is the classy thing to do. e: oh also, i assume you were just cherrypicking, but in case you are actually ignorant http://www.twincities.com/2016/05/22/minnesota-moves-to-presidential-primary/ Lutha Mahtin has issued a correction as of 04:05 on Jun 7, 2016 |
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Jun 7, 2016 04:02
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Vote-by-Mail is superior, and if you lived in the PNW you'd agree.
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Jun 7, 2016 04:03
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Lutha Mahtin posted:Your fishmeching is awful. Moving the goalposts to "heh primaries bitch" is bad, and you should feel bad. I know it's hard to admit when you've been beaten, but it really is the classy thing to do. Jesus Christ dude. gently caress off. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jun 7, 2016 04:05
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Lutha Mahtin posted:Your fishmeching is awful. Moving the goalposts to "heh primaries bitch" is bad, and you should feel bad. I know it's hard to admit when you've been beaten, but it really is the classy thing to do. settle down, beavis
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Jun 7, 2016 04:09
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watwat posted:Jesus Christ dude. gently caress off. This is the dumbest thing in the world to derail about. Especially in the gambling thread. It'd be like a blackjack thread having a fight over card-stock.
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Jun 7, 2016 04:10
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Hachi machi, sorry about that, guys. So who thinks Sanders is actually going to drop out this month?
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Jun 7, 2016 04:31
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i think odds are good he drops out in the next 48hrs
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Jun 7, 2016 04:33
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Abel Wingnut posted:i think odds are good he drops out in the next 48hrs I own exactly one share of Sanders Dropout YES. I wouldn't buy any more, because it's impossible to tell exactly what direction the great red grump will take his losses tomorrow. Could just make him angrier and have him stay in to the convention just out of spite.
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Jun 7, 2016 04:53
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He's been telegraphing it pretty hard but he's tricked me on other categories before so who knows
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Jun 7, 2016 04:55
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i mean, the ap called the primary. he's going to look really petty if he loses nj and ca yet keeps up with a campaign. his donations are way down, obama called him yeaterday, obama's endorsing her like wednesday, and he's not an idiot. it's time to move on. hillary already has. i mean, yes, it's possible he keeps up a campaign. but...who the hell's going to care? i doubt hillary would even try to campaign at that point. the media won't care, they've already moved on. it just doesn't make sense for him to waste his time and, more importantly, her time. abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 05:02 on Jun 7, 2016 |
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Jun 7, 2016 04:56
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e_angst posted:I own exactly one share of Sanders Dropout YES. I wouldn't buy any more, because it's impossible to tell exactly what direction the great red grump will take his losses tomorrow. Could just make him angrier and have him stay in to the convention just out of spite. I went with 749 shares more than that just to be safe.
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Jun 7, 2016 05:04
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Hillary stayed in until the convention.
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Jun 7, 2016 05:18
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EngineerSean posted:Hillary stayed in until the convention. I'm planning to sell on the swing tomorrow anyway, but yeah, I could see Sanders stubbornly pushing on. Hillary was a lot closer in 2008 than Sanders is now, though.
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Jun 7, 2016 05:20
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It also doesn't cost him anything to stay in and he's already been running on fumes for the past month. If he doesn't need to campaign any longer why even bother suspending, anyways?
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Jun 7, 2016 05:22
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no she didn't. she suspended on 7/8/08. the convention was in august.Necc0 posted:It also doesn't cost him anything to stay in and he's already been running on fumes for the past month. If he doesn't need to campaign any longer why even bother suspending, anyways? because he realizes it's time for the party to come together against trump. he's going to look terrible if he's out campaigning after obama endorses her. like, beyond petty. just straight up sore loser. he certainly could, i wouldn't put it past him. but...it's over. consolidate the base, take on trump. that's what's best for the nation. presumably he'd stay in to help steer hillary's message. he has a better chance of doing that as some pact with her in turn for his concession. why would hillary alter her message if he keeps campaigning and she doesn't give him the time of day? he loses more leverage the longer he holds out. he'll also gain more credence at the convention if he drops out now. if he really wants to help, he drops out now. abelwingnut has issued a correction as of 05:29 on Jun 7, 2016 |
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Jun 7, 2016 05:22
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My guess is that he stays in one more week to make D.C. feel important and then admits what mathematics has known for months. Then he does like Hillary in '08 and ends the voting as the speaking delegate for Vermont, moving to make Hillary the official nominee. It's irrelevant after tomorrow anyway, since the only argument he'll have left is the dumb Super Delegates don't vote until the convention argument. Which will also be blown out of the water when they all say they're voting Hillary and the media doesn't care.
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Jun 7, 2016 05:58
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He's not dropping out before the convention.
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Jun 7, 2016 05:59
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Trump is a weaker candidate than McCain so I don't know why this situation is different from hillary 08.
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Jun 7, 2016 17:57
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I bought 50 shares of Sanders YES at 20 cents, now wondering when is the best time to sell them.
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Jun 7, 2016 18:22
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Nirvikalpa posted:I bought 50 shares of Sanders YES at 20 cents, now wondering when is the best time to sell them. If you can get to 25 cents I'd unload there. It may go a bit higher, but I don't think the swings will be as big as people hope.
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Jun 7, 2016 18:27
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Not to mention Hillary is expected to come out the gate strong which isn't going to help any. If you really don't feel confident in Bernie making it happen you're gonna be up real late tonight in order to ride the swings.
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Jun 7, 2016 18:34
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EngineerSean posted:Hillary stayed in until the convention. she dropped out the day after california The Joe Man posted:He's not dropping out before the convention. you can make a lot of money betting on that
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Jun 8, 2016 00:15
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NJ results starting.
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Jun 8, 2016 01:08
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What the hell, sold a few dozen Bernie CA NO shares and bought in on cheaper Bernie Dropout YES. I stand to gain an extra $5 in profit if he doesn't fight reality too hard.
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Jun 8, 2016 03:18
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e_angst posted:What the hell, sold a few dozen Bernie CA NO shares and bought in on cheaper Bernie Dropout YES. I stand to gain an extra $5 in profit if he doesn't fight reality too hard. $75 on drop out NO, stand to gain $250. EASY PEASY Time Travel PS: Thank you Elizabeth Warren for making me $1,500. I want Bernie to stay in but the sooner he drops/gives up (assuming the convention), the sooner I can cash out that $1,500.
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Jun 8, 2016 03:22
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The Joe Man posted:$75 on drop out NO, stand to gain $250. Are you holding YES shares on Warren VP? Good lord man, how much money do you want to give Predictit?
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Jun 8, 2016 03:49
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Gyges posted:Are you holding YES shares on Warren VP? Good lord man, how much money do you want to give Predictit?
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Jun 8, 2016 03:53
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DEM.BROKERED and CLINTON.NOM are STILL at the same price 
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Jun 8, 2016 04:38
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Did anyone jump on the California MoV market?
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Jun 8, 2016 04:41
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It's me, I'm the guy who bought all the 4 cent Hillary YES shares in Montana and sold them at their peak. See you on my yacht bitches.
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Jun 8, 2016 05:33
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I won big on SD, MT, and CA. $1000 loss on ND. Got out of NM at a $40 loss. No bet on NJ. All in all, I won $3600. Best night yet.
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Jun 8, 2016 05:42
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Up about $1000 today after all this madness. Still watching Montana like a hawk...
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Jun 8, 2016 05:50
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Won fairly big in California. Then again, if I'd watched that market more closely and timed my purchase better, it could have been a bigger win. Took a tiny bit of profit from that and bought Bernie Dropout YES. I just did a sum of all my deposits and withdrawls since I got into PI. After tonight's win, it looks like I'm down $583.05. (That's including all fees.) I'm still smarting from my stupidity in the Oregon MOV market.
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Jun 8, 2016 05:52
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Free pennies. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2804/Will-the-margin-of-victory-in-Montana-Democratic-primary-exceed-20-percentage-points#openoffers
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Jun 8, 2016 06:44
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