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Yeah, I made a nice bundle tonight, but still not quite even to Oregon levels. Though if Johnson funding pans out the way I hope that should put me back in black. Sad part now is outside of VP lottery tickets, it's just poll bets until the conventions, and then the same until november. Edit: the CA MOV gets you twice as many pennies at the moment. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2802/Will-the-margin-of-victory-in-California-Democratic-primary-exceed-3-percentage-points#data Edit2: VV You actually thought he was dropping out tonight? ha! Bernie may drop out after getting pasted in DC next week with no more primaries to contest, but otherwise he's in it to the convention. OAquinas has issued a correction as of 07:05 on Jun 8, 2016 |
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Jun 8, 2016 06:46
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Bernie's speechwriter was in the DROPOUT market I loving swear
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Jun 8, 2016 07:03
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Aliquid posted:Bernie's speechwriter was in the DROPOUT market I loving swear No doubt. That has to have been the craziest swing of the night.
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Jun 8, 2016 07:04
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It was a legit swing because he was actually for-real giving a concession speech until 80% of the way through.
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Jun 8, 2016 07:05
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Aliquid posted:Bernie's speechwriter was in the DROPOUT market I loving swear I now have a really embarrassing position in that stupid market. I still expect him to drop out, whether it's after DC or earlier.
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Jun 8, 2016 07:06
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Joe Man wins again 
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Jun 8, 2016 07:06
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Aliquid posted:It was a legit swing because he was actually for-real giving a concession speech until 80% of the way through. I honestly wonder if he did pull a Wolf of Wall Street there, about to concede and then say "gently caress it"!
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Jun 8, 2016 07:07
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OAquinas posted:Yeah, I made a nice bundle tonight, but still not quite even to Oregon levels. Though if Johnson funding pans out the way I hope that should put me back in black. Bernie is dropping out after D.C. If he actually stays in all the way to the convention he loses pretty much any real say in the future of the party and platform. Staying in through D.C. saves face, gives his supporters closure, and follows the same path as '08. He'll be out by the end of next week. Though I do hope that his call to win D.C. causes the Predictit Bernouts to really drive down the prices for Hillary YES bets.
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Jun 8, 2016 07:09
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The Joe Man posted:Joe Man wins again Lol
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Jun 8, 2016 07:10
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Tried to play the crazy flips in MT and shot myself in the foot. Fun times.
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Jun 8, 2016 07:23
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Hey guys do you want to know what Obama's phonecall to Bernie was about? HINT: It rhymes with "excitement"
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Jun 8, 2016 07:42
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lol I wish
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Jun 8, 2016 07:57
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They redeemed my Bernie NOs for the CA primary half an hour ago, but my Clinton YESes are still sitting there. Is this normal?
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Jun 8, 2016 14:29
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For what it's worth NJ is a gubernatorial appointment state so that pretty firmly writes off Booker from the VP shortlist imo
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Jun 8, 2016 14:56
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Welp. Now I need a new market to sink my ill-gotten gains into...
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Jun 8, 2016 15:10
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OAquinas posted:Welp. Now I need a new market to sink my ill-gotten gains into... Florida Republican Senate Candidate is starting to look tempting. Of course your money will be locked up until August, but last time I glanced at the market it looked like you could probably get NOs on everyone and have negative risk. Also Rubio running for Senate only has a couple weeks left, if you think you understand the mind of Lil' Marco.
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Jun 8, 2016 15:34
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OAquinas posted:Welp. Now I need a new market to sink my ill-gotten gains into... I made a big No bet on the Clinton Favorability market, which has since gained a lot of value. Usual caveats about polls apply.
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Jun 8, 2016 15:57
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Necc0 posted:For what it's worth NJ is a gubernatorial appointment state so that pretty firmly writes off Booker from the VP shortlist imo Governmental appointment, but a special election has to occur within a certain number of months. So none of that "governor's appointment serves out the entire rest of the term" poo poo.
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Jun 8, 2016 17:44
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I've been convinced to be a little bullish on Perez or, god forbid, Kaine. Really hoping for Perez though. Keeping it 1600 and a few think pieces made a real good case for Perez. Kaine is the boring pick that seems most likely if she just goes dumb white guy.
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Jun 8, 2016 17:53
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I know it's a gamble but at 9-1 odds I figured Castro was a good buy.
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Jun 8, 2016 18:05
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Bernie Dropout by end of June YES is at 60 cents. Pretty much a guarantee he'll drop out after consulting with Obama at the White House tomorrow. Like, he won't drop out tomorrow. He may wait until DC votes and concede that night. But no way is he hanging around for 3 more weeks of getting the poo poo shredded out of him.
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Jun 8, 2016 18:28
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I think he will if Hillary doesn't give him what he wants.
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Jun 8, 2016 18:33
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EngineerSean posted:I won big on SD, MT, and CA. $1000 loss on ND. Got out of NM at a $40 loss. No bet on NJ. All in all, I won $3600. Best night yet. Nice! I made about 30%. Sold half of my CA to get risk free gains in NJ and NM, but ended up making a little less than if I'd just held CA. Less risky than all the eggs in the CA basket though.
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Jun 8, 2016 18:56
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pathetic little tramp posted:Bernie Dropout by end of June YES is at 60 cents. Pretty much a guarantee he'll drop out after consulting with Obama at the White House tomorrow. Like, he won't drop out tomorrow. He may wait until DC votes and concede that night. But no way is he hanging around for 3 more weeks of getting the poo poo shredded out of him. Yeah I grabbed a bunch of shares. He's not going to keep going with no money, that's all there is to this. He won't get any more donations after today, and his fund will dry up in probably less than a week.
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Jun 8, 2016 19:24
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I have a feeling that if you wait until after his meeting with Obama, the price will drop a little when he doesn't immediately concede. Hopefully, for me at least, he goes out and talked about going to the convention right afterwards. Then he'll drop out after DC.
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Jun 8, 2016 20:47
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Bored out of my skull, I bet on polls. Don't bet on polls.
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Jun 9, 2016 05:36
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Peachstapler posted:Bored out of my skull, I bet on polls. Reuters, man. They gently caress you.
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Jun 9, 2016 17:29
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Oh my god the Hillary vs. Trump polling market ending today. Gotta read those comments. I managed to squeeze out about $30 after showing up literally seconds late but some people just made a cool $5000 in an instant.
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Jun 9, 2016 17:48
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Vox Nihili posted:Oh my god the Hillary vs. Trump polling market ending today. Gotta read those comments. drat, that was a huge flip. Saw it this morning and decided it was better not to bet on polls. Don't regret that decision, but drat. EDIT: It looks like Bernie Dropout YES is finally starting to climb back up after his White House meeting. I'm back to even now after that election night fuckup. (Though I also bought more to max out when the prices were low, at least partially to lower my average price paid per share to be a less embarrassing number.) e_angst has issued a correction as of 18:30 on Jun 9, 2016 |
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Jun 9, 2016 18:22
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I haven't been paying attention to that market at all but having separate markets for 1.0-1.9, 2.0-2.9, and 3+ is loving insane. Razor thin margins like that can flip on a dime and it makes me want to put lottery tickets into anything <10c for next time.
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Jun 9, 2016 18:41
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nachos posted:I haven't been paying attention to that market at all but having separate markets for 1.0-1.9, 2.0-2.9, and 3+ is loving insane. Razor thin margins like that can flip on a dime and it makes me want to put lottery tickets into anything <10c for next time. Yup! Don't Bet on Polls™
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Jun 9, 2016 18:45
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What's worse is that you have your regular updater polls, and then you get the random Yokel University Legit Poll that drops in that screws with your math. Not to mention the arbitrary poll drops from the average (seriously, a two month old poll was included in a recent averaging). It doesn't help that the RCP interns probably play the PI markets.
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Jun 9, 2016 18:49
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OAquinas posted:It doesn't help that the RCP interns probably play the PI markets. I'd like to pick up some pennies now - but feels like this is unstable enough that someone might switch the polls around again at the last minute.
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Jun 9, 2016 19:19
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nachos posted:I haven't been paying attention to that market at all but having separate markets for 1.0-1.9, 2.0-2.9, and 3+ is loving insane. Razor thin margins like that can flip on a dime and it makes me want to put lottery tickets into anything <10c for next time. Honestly, this isn't a terrible strategy in polling markets especially early on for anything that dips too low - (and isn't super obviously dead) - with how much the markets can jump around, and as long as you're smart about it, it can pay off. don't bet on polls
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Jun 9, 2016 19:22
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Baddog posted:I'd like to pick up some pennies now - but feels like this is unstable enough that someone might switch the polls around again at the last minute. If you're worried about poll drops, the only candidates for being ditched would just serve to raise the average with their omission, so that scenario just helps the current winner. Now, if a Rando McRanderson poll drops at Trump +1 in the next 6 hours, holy flipballs.
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Jun 9, 2016 19:35
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OAquinas posted:What's worse is that you have your regular updater polls, and then you get the random Yokel University Legit Poll that drops in that screws with your math. Not to mention the arbitrary poll drops from the average (seriously, a two month old poll was included in a recent averaging). RCP's poll aggregator was amazing...when it launched in 2002. I don't know why anyone would use their poll "averages" for anything serious, though. Maybe I just can't find it, but I don't see any methodology on their site about really critical things like: how they choose which polls to include, how long each poll stays in the average, if they ever make exceptions to include or exclude polls, etc. So it's pretty disingenuous for PI to claim these are polling markets, when really they're "guess which numbers some nameless guy is going to plug in to a spreadsheet" markets. I'm not sure what they could replace it with. I don't think any of the big poll analysts like FiveThirtyEight have put up their November forecasts yet, and even though sites like those are more rigorous than RCP in many ways, you'd still just be trading one philosophy for another. If there was a site with an RCP-style "average of recent polls" but that was actually honest about their methodology, I feel like that would at least be an improvement over how PI is doing it now.
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Jun 9, 2016 20:33
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Huffington Post actually puts out more info regarding their tracker model. Which should tell you how terrible RCP is...
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Jun 9, 2016 21:19
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Today's endorsement from Obama seems to have finally pushed CLINTON.FEDCHARGES into the low 80s. Now may be a good time to jump on that as I think it won't be long until the FBI clears her of wrongdoing.
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Jun 9, 2016 21:35
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DC MoV up... and it's... bracketed? Huh.
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Jun 9, 2016 21:50
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C7ty1 posted:DC MoV up... and it's... bracketed? Huh. Bracketed but the highest bracket is 10+ points.  can do that in her sleep. If it had gone all the way up to 20-30, that would make for an interesting market.
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Jun 9, 2016 21:58
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