UKRIPMT June 2016: #Boxit

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How will you be voting in the UKEU Referendum? This poll is closed.
Remain - Keep Britane Strong!	328	15.40%
Leave - Take Are Sovreignity Back!	115	5.40%
Remain - But only because Brexit are crazy	506	23.76%
Leave - But only because the EU is terrible	157	7.37%
Spoiled Ballot - This whole thing is an awful idea	61	2.86%
I'm not going to vote	19	0.89%
I'm not allowed to vote	411	19.30%
Pissflaps	533	25.02%
Total:	2130 votes

[Edit Poll (moderators only)]

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Gonzo McFee posted:

I hope gangs of youths terrify every elderly person going anywhere near a polling station.

It's not too late for one of 'those' heatwaves

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:16

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 17:48

hookerbot 5000: Dec 21, 2009

Gyro Zeppeli posted:

Surely that'd be the double-edged sword of demoralizing potential remain voters too?

Also isn't there some effect where the more people want to do something the more normal it becomes to people who haven't made up their mind?

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:19

FinalGamer: Aug 30, 2012; So the mystic script says.

hookerbot 5000 posted:

But the SNP are seen as incredibly pro Europe, the big argument that if the UK votes leave it'll trigger another Scottish referendum is based on the idea that Scotland (and by extension the SNP) are hugely in favour of voting to remain. There's no ambiguity there at all.So the argument that Corbyn is making us leave the EU because 'something' doesn't make sense (as is often the case) because support from the SNP supporters and support from Labour supporters is pretty much identical.

It would be super-hypocritical if, after Westminster told Scotland to stay as being "better together", they decided we were "better without Europe", which is generally the big crux of the SNP's argument since the SNP wanted Scotland to be independent of Britain but still remain as actually part of Europe as its own country. Honestly, I'm just loving sick of Westminster and I've become so embittered about their treatment of Scotland since the Thatcher days which nobody has seemed to ever apologise for, that I at the very least want to stop any hypocrisy tearing the country apart because holy poo poo.

I'm very certain the majority of Scotland is Remain, so if England's greater majority vote Leave we're going to get another schism and this time we're almost certainly going to be saying Yes to independence because jesus christ the two countries are so different in political thoughts that it will be impossible to come to any agreement in a Leave campaign.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:23

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Coohoolin posted:

It was the old people that hosed us then and it'll be the old people that gently caress us this time.

In regards to the IndyRef this isn't true.

Full indyref survey reveals young voters voted No and only 25-39 age group said Yes

quote:

THE elderly did not rob the young of an independent Scotland, according to YouGov's final poll of how Scotland voted in the independence referendum.

Their study of 3,188 voters showed that 51 per cent of those aged between 16 and 24 voted No. It also revealed that more than one in five SNP supporters turned their backs on independence.

he breakdown has come from YouGov's referendum night poll that predicted a No win with 54 per cent of the vote. Some 55.3 per cent voted against independence in the official vote.

A post-referendum poll of 2,000 conducted by Lord Ashcroft said that 71 per cent of 16-17-year-olds and 48 per cent of 18 to 24-year-olds voted Yes giving ammunition to Yes supporters that the young were being deprived of an independent Scotland by their older peers.

However, only 14 people in that age group responded to the survey.

The YouGov poll found:

l Only eight per cent of Tory voters supported independence while 27 per cent of Labour supporters and 29 per cent of Liberal Democrats said Yes.

l Out of five age groups only the 25-39-year-olds supported a Yes with 55 per cent backing independence.

l The biggest supporters of No were voters over 65, with two in every three preferring to stay within the United Kingdom.

l Some 55 per cent of 60-65-year-olds and 53 per cent of 40-59-year-olds backed Better Together.

l A total of 74 per cent of those voters who were born elsewhere in the UK voted No. Some 51 per cent of Scots-born voters supported independence.

The poll also found twice as many voters said Yes campaign activists at polling stations were acting unreasonably, at six per cent, to No's three per cent.

The decision to allow the 16 and 17-year-olds to have the vote in the referendum was hailed by outgoing First Minister Alex Salmond in his concession speech. He declared the involvement of Scotland's youngest voters in the referendum a "resounding success".

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:29

Coohoolin: Aug 5, 2012; Oor Coohoolie.

quote:

Their study of 3,188 voters

Hmmm.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:34

Natural 20: Sep 17, 2007; Wearer of Compasses. Slayer of Gods. Champion of the Colosseum. Heart of the Void.
Saviour of Hallownest.

Zephro posted:

This is sort of what I mean about how Remain are handling this. People who ask the question usually don't care about what immigrants do to wages generally across the nation, or at least not as much as what they think immigrants do or will do to their wages or jobs specifically. An American example to make things uncontroversial: those workers at the air conditioning factory who all lost their jobs because management moved the factory to Mexico probably don't care about the diffuse benefit that slightly cheaper air conditioners brings to every other American, but they care very much indeed about the fact that they're now unemployed.

The worries around immigration are personal and Remain are mostly answering them impersonally, is what I'm getting at. It's really noticeable once you start listening for it and it's sort of unsurprising that it doesn't seem to be working.

But then what can you do? Every single fact indicates that immigration just doesn't affect wages and that jobs just don't get stolen, but there's this mad irrational perception that they do. The sad reality is if by some act of god you lose your job to a foreign worker that poo poo is your fault for being poo poo and not their fault for being here and not the government's fault for letting them in (I mean maybe it's the government's fault for being bad at education, but meh). But you can't persuade people that they're to blame for anything that's their own fault.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:39

GEORGE W BUSHI: Jul 1, 2012

Coohoolin posted:

Hmmm.

That's a very good sample size.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:41

Microplastics: Jul 6, 2007; It's what's for dinner.

Coohoolin posted:

Hmmm.

Oh god are we going to have to have the sample chat?

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:41

mehall: Aug 27, 2010

Baron Corbyn posted:

That's a very good sample size.

Depends on how big the sample of 18-24's are. They are saying Ashcroft's 2000 person survey only had 14 of that low age bracket, which may have skewed things, but then don't state how big their own section was.

It's a reasonable sample size overall, but it can be incredibly shut for demographics.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:44

Coohoolin: Aug 5, 2012; Oor Coohoolie.

Baron Corbyn posted:

That's a very good sample size.

Not sure the study had good samples down the line

quote:

However, only 14 people in that age group responded to the survey.

But then again I did terribly at my statistics module so I'll defer to other people here.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:45

Manic_Misanthrope: Jul 1, 2010

So what's everyone drinking after voting? I'm going to hoard spiced rum.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:46

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Coohoolin posted:

Hmmm.

I realise that's less comprehensive than "people on coohoolin's Facebook feed (that he agrees with)" and "wings over Scotland commenters"

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:46

Taear: Nov 26, 2004; Ask me about the shitty opinions I have about Paradox games!

Yorkshire Tea posted:

But then what can you do? Every single fact indicates that immigration just doesn't affect wages and that jobs just don't get stolen, but there's this mad irrational perception that they do. The sad reality is if by some act of god you lose your job to a foreign worker that poo poo is your fault for being poo poo and not their fault for being here and not the government's fault for letting them in (I mean maybe it's the government's fault for being bad at education, but meh). But you can't persuade people that they're to blame for anything that's their own fault.

"I feel it" trumps "Here's information".
That's why anecdotes are so important to things like this, because it then becomes real to people.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:46

Miftan: Mar 31, 2012; Terry knows what he can do with his bloody chocolate orange...

Manic_Misanthrope posted:

So what's everyone drinking after voting? I'm going to hoard spiced rum.

Mulled wine.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:48

Berious: Nov 13, 2005

I've made peace with getting hosed by the vote. Not looking forward to it especially as I'll be job hunting again soon but at least I know it's coming. Just another poo poo sandwich served up by the electorate like 2015. All the retards who expect sunshine and lollipops after Nige takes back are cuntry will be in for a massive shock though.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:49

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Coohoolin posted:

Not sure the study had good samples down the line

But then again I did terribly at my statistics module so I'll defer to other people here.

14 is the sample size of "young people" in the Ashcroft poll being rebuffed, not the YouGov one you're criticising

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:50

Berious: Nov 13, 2005

Manic_Misanthrope posted:

So what's everyone drinking after voting? I'm going to hoard spiced rum.

Already voted and working next day. Got some russian standard to drown my sorrows after though

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:52

GEORGE W BUSHI: Jul 1, 2012

Yorkshire Tea posted:

But then what can you do? Every single fact indicates that immigration just doesn't affect wages and that jobs just don't get stolen, but there's this mad irrational perception that they do. The sad reality is if by some act of god you lose your job to a foreign worker that poo poo is your fault for being poo poo and not their fault for being here and not the government's fault for letting them in (I mean maybe it's the government's fault for being bad at education, but meh). But you can't persuade people that they're to blame for anything that's their own fault.

http://rationalwiki.org/wiki/Backfire_effect

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:54

Guavanaut: Nov 27, 2009; Looking At Them Tittys
1969 - 1998; Toilet Rascal

Manic_Misanthrope posted:

So what's everyone drinking after voting? I'm going to hoard spiced rum.

Irish whiskey. Figure they'll need the money.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:55

kingturnip: Apr 18, 2008

I'll drink cheap Polish lager for the last time it'll feel like it then go into work hungover the next day and growl incomprehensibly at my student until either she stops listening or someone sends me home.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 17:55

Coohoolin: Aug 5, 2012; Oor Coohoolie.

Niric posted:

14 is the sample size of "young people" in the Ashcroft poll being rebuffed, not the YouGov one you're criticising

Ah misread it.

In any case "old people cost us the referendum" isn't necessarily refuted by "other age groups also voted No". If we took old people out of the equation, would Yes have won?

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:04

Zephro: Nov 23, 2000; I suppose I could part with one and still be feared...

Yorkshire Tea posted:

But then what can you do? Every single fact indicates that immigration just doesn't affect wages and that jobs just don't get stolen, but there's this mad irrational perception that they do. The sad reality is if by some act of god you lose your job to a foreign worker that poo poo is your fault for being poo poo and not their fault for being here and not the government's fault for letting them in (I mean maybe it's the government's fault for being bad at education, but meh). But you can't persuade people that they're to blame for anything that's their own fault.

Yeah, true enough. Nine days isn't long enough to challenge years of ingrained thinking, so idk what you can do instead :/

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:23

Miftan: Mar 31, 2012; Terry knows what he can do with his bloody chocolate orange...

Coohoolin posted:

Ah misread it.

In any case "old people cost us the referendum" isn't necessarily refuted by "other age groups also voted No". If we took old people out of the equation, would Yes have won?

But what if taking out 16-24 would've also made Yes win, then did 16-24s AND old people cost you the referendum?

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:47

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

Coohoolin posted:

Ah misread it.

In any case "old people cost us the referendum" isn't necessarily refuted by "other age groups also voted No". If we took old people out of the equation, would Yes have won?

Well you'd need the figures of turnout by age and then calculate the result by using that to weight likely voting preference. There's also the definitional problem of "old."

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:51

XMNN: Apr 26, 2008; I am incredibly stupid

its anyone over 30

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:53

Jedit: Dec 10, 2011; Proudly supporting vanilla legends 1994-2014

Coohoolin posted:

Ah misread it.

In any case "old people cost us the referendum" isn't necessarily refuted by "other age groups also voted No". If we took old people out of the equation, would Yes have won?

Let's do the numbers. We'll assume that turnout was 100% proportional. We'll also eliminate the 18-24 bracket as the numbers aren't statistically meaningful. Our brackets are:

25-39 - 1031923
40-59 - 1513756
60-64 - 316998

(Source)

Those brackets break 55:45, 47:53 and 45:55 respectively. That equates to a total of 1,421,672 votes for Yes and 1,441,005 votes for No. So even without pensioners, No would have won unless the young came out in favour of independence.

Before you start about the young: the most reliable poll I know on 16-19 year olds was the Aberdeenshire Schools Referendum, which had a better than 90% turnout of all children who would be that age on referendum day and which came out something like 79% in favour of No.

E: I don't have time to run the full spread as I'm going out, but assuming even breakdown by year, 20-24s would have had to have voted something like 7:1 in favour of independence. It was never happening.

Jedit fucked around with this message at 19:03 on Jun 14, 2016

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:54

Rolled Cabbage: Sep 3, 2006

Baron Corbyn posted:

The generational gap is quite infuriating. That a decision that will massively impact the future of young people in this country might go against them because Gladys and Wilfred saw a foreign on the bus and got perturbed. It's more infuriating that that's enough to get Gladys and Wilfred into the voting booth and not the people whose futures will be impacted. gently caress olds. gently caress kids. gently caress everyone.

Don't know how much exposure it's gotten, but this was fab.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:58

Benjamin Arthur: Nov 7, 2012

Manic_Misanthrope posted:

So what's everyone drinking after voting? I'm going to hoard spiced rum.

Havana Club in celebration of the wounding of European neoliberalism

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:59

Saint Isaias Boner: Jan 17, 2007; hi how are you ♥

Rolled Cabbage posted:

Don't know how much exposure it's gotten, but this was fab.

made the front page of the graun this morning

# ? Jun 14, 2016 18:59

Niric: Jul 23, 2008

XMNN posted:

its anyone over 30

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:00

Saint Isaias Boner: Jan 17, 2007; hi how are you ♥

Manic_Misanthrope posted:

So what's everyone drinking after voting? I'm going to hoard spiced rum.

im off the sauce so it's seltzer water for me

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:03

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

I'll probably be drinking blood

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:04

JFairfax: Oct 23, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

probably a fruit smoothie

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:06

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

I got my entire local family to change from leave to uncertain/remain by telling them they could live in portugal on their pension and get NHS coverage at the same time

they don't make alcohol strong enough to wash away this much bitterness

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:06

forkboy84: Jun 13, 2012; Corgis love bread. And Puro

Manic_Misanthrope posted:

So what's everyone drinking after voting? I'm going to hoard spiced rum.

Probably water because it's all I can afford. Which is probably the loving EU's fault, the bastards. If I had that �350m a week that they steal from us, dirty foreign bastards, I'd do what I did at the 2015 general election, drink nothing until 10pm, then as soon as the polls close break open a terrible, cheap, bottle of vodka, probably Glen's. The main aim being to black out before the result is confirmed. Because the best way to cope with the electorate voting in a way that leaves you with an existential sense of horror is to wake up feeling like death.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:06

JFairfax: Oct 23, 2008; by FactsAreUseless

Spangly A posted:

I got my entire local family to change from leave to uncertain/remain by telling them they could live in portugal on their pension and get NHS coverage at the same time

they don't make alcohol strong enough to wash away this much bitterness

portuguese moonshine would give it a good go

JFairfax fucked around with this message at 19:10 on Jun 14, 2016

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:07

TinTower: Apr 21, 2010; You don't have to 8e a good person to 8e a hero.

If it's a small consolation, most polls are GB-only. NI, ex-pats, and Gibraltar combined should add an extra percent onto Remain, given they mostly lean that way.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:11

Phoon: Apr 23, 2010

oh man gibraltar is gonna get loving messy if we vote out

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:13

Spangly A: May 14, 2009; God help you if ever you're caught on these shores

A man's ambition must indeed be small
To write his name upon a shithouse wall

the Spanish would have so much fun loving with Gibraltar if they didn't have to play nice at the border

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:13

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# ? Jun 7, 2024 17:48

Tesseraction: Apr 5, 2009

JFairfax posted:

probably a fruit smoothie

I had a smoothie for the first time today.

Nice flavour but def. feels like drinking cold puke.

# ? Jun 14, 2016 19:13

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