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New weekly favorability polling markets to go along with the weekly TvC market. Don't bet on polls. (But if you're gonna bet on polls you should be picking up shares of Johnson failing to reach 11% instead.)
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Jun 15, 2016 16:34
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Ugh. Sanders dropout market continues to fall. At this point it's basically gonna be me watching his webcast like a hawk on Thursday and trying to get in line for the big sell-off in the event that he decides to be an idiot and stay in.
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Jun 15, 2016 16:40
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e_angst posted:Ugh. Sanders dropout market continues to fall. At this point it's basically gonna be me watching his webcast like a hawk on Thursday and trying to get in line for the big sell-off in the event that he decides to be an idiot and stay in. Goddamn it's falling even further. There doesn't seem to be any new information out that I can see. Can't tell if this is Bernouts giving one last rush of irrational enthusiasm or if something else is going on.
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Jun 15, 2016 19:54
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e_angst posted:Goddamn it's falling even further. There doesn't seem to be any new information out that I can see. Can't tell if this is Bernouts giving one last rush of irrational enthusiasm or if something else is going on. Commenters posted a Reuters article from a spokesperson saying that there'd be no drop tomorrow. http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0Z126B YES seems to have stabilized in the mid-40s but that was a crazy ride. I, too, will be watching Thursday like an F5-spamming hawk. This primary has been full of candidates pledging to stay in the race only to withdraw in their speech that night, so I'm holding and hoping.
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Jun 15, 2016 20:04
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Raivin posted:Commenters posted a Reuters article from a spokesperson saying that there'd be no drop tomorrow. True, but unlike the cavalcade of GOP has-beens Bernie's in this for his ideology and platform, as well as himself. Or at least that's the ~message~. Plus it costs him nothing to go to the convention at this point. All primaries are done, no more campaigning is required (outside of superdelegates) unless he swings the nom. So he can 'stay in' as a last gently caress-you to DWS. Alternatively, he can drop out and throw support behind nevertrump and Hillary. But I'd bet on the former (and have).
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Jun 15, 2016 20:10
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Raivin posted:Commenters posted a Reuters article from a spokesperson saying that there'd be no drop tomorrow. This is going to come down to wording. If he says he's no longer seeking the nomination, that'd be a YES.
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Jun 15, 2016 20:10
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Yeah the wording does allow for some rules lawyering. However it resolves you're going to see some pissed off players.
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Jun 15, 2016 20:15
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Raivin posted:Yeah the wording does allow for some rules lawyering. However it resolves you're going to see some pissed off players. At least Bernie will be alone on a web chat. I can guarantee that if he was in a stadium full of people his ego would kick off and even if he planned to drop out he wouldn't.
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Jun 15, 2016 20:17
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His whole thing is no backroom deals and no bullshit, so I dunno why you all are so sure he's gonna drop out so he can gain influence and appointments in a rotten party. I think he rides it the whole way (and maybe even goes third party), but I'm not betting on it!
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Jun 15, 2016 20:21
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Should have stuck with my NO shares. This is almost as bad as when I sold my (large number of) Merrick Garland shares at $0.25... I think I don't have the patience for this.
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Jun 15, 2016 20:23
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Baddog posted:His whole thing is no backroom deals and no bullshit, so I dunno why you all are so sure he's gonna drop out so he can gain influence and appointments in a rotten party. If he ran third party, he'd have the actual double barrel of oppo thrown at him by the DNC and he'd end up in 5th behind Stein and Johnson. I kind of wouldn't mind that.
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Jun 15, 2016 20:30
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Baddog posted:His whole thing is no backroom deals and no bullshit, so I dunno why you all are so sure he's gonna drop out so he can gain influence and appointments in a rotten party. Unless he works it out with Hillary to do so, going all the way to the convention isn't going to help his message at all. He's not running 3rd Party, so his best bet is to use everything he has to change the Democratic Party. In terms of holding power, he was at his strongest before June 7th, theoretically able to take the nomination and with the possibility of winning California. So unless he actually works something out with Hillary and she OKs his staying in until the Convention, which isn't an impossibility, he's going to drop out very soon if he wants any real say in the direction of the Democrats. Giving up means he is welcomed to the convention and given at least some say in things, forcing his way to the convention while still attempting to win means that he must be crushed.
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Jun 15, 2016 22:41
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Clinton obviously wants to appeal to Sanders supporters. It will be interesting to see how the whole thing shakes out.
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Jun 15, 2016 23:24
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Ugh. I said "sure" to the God of Polls, and got into the Clinton Favorability market. It's amazing just how effective pumping in the comments has been. Like, moving the price well over a dime in each direction. And now the way the market settles depends entirely on if RCP is going to add the latest Bloomberg poll to their average tonight (and if doing so causes them to drop any of the older polls, as both would need to happen to change the result from NO to YES). At this point the market is literally just gambling on the office practices of RCP.
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Jun 15, 2016 23:25
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lol, saw some article about jolly considering dropping out of the FL senate race this morning, so I rushed in to buy up shares at 40c, and I waited... 30 mins later, nothing had moved, so I figured it was nothing Now: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/powerpost/wp/2016/06/15/marco-rubio-says-he-will-reconsider-leaving-senate/ Apparently Lopez-Cantera has offered to drop out if Rubio wants in, and Jolly (polling in the lead) is going to do the same  At 65-70c YES, it's not an obvious buy anymore, but that feels like a good price after his top two opponents have come out and said "I'll clear the way" and he has said he's going to reconsider https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2825/Will-Marco-Rubio-run-for-US-Senate-in-2016
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Jun 15, 2016 23:47
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 Deer spiking as people are saying they're going to shoot a deer this weekend after their kid does something dumb and post the video in the comments pathetic little tramp has issued a correction as of 00:30 on Jun 16, 2016 |
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Jun 16, 2016 00:15
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nice try but deer hunting season is in the fall and you need permits (you had me for a minute)
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Jun 16, 2016 01:41
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Too bad they didn't have alligator up
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Jun 16, 2016 04:39
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Baddog posted:Too bad they didn't have alligator up Just as well, nobody wants the endless argument about whether or not the rules technically cover crocodiles.
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Jun 16, 2016 05:20
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Bought no on all, it's clearly going to be bald eagle or condor next. edit: sold my Ted Cruz shares at a small loss, forgot he's back on the prowl
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Jun 16, 2016 06:28
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Toss another 6% poll in for Johnson. Making two 6's and a 9 in recent polls; even if the 8 and 5 get dropped he needs a few 15%+ polls to flip it. No is currently in the low 80s, and it closes in 2 weeks.
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Jun 16, 2016 15:25
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Crosspost from another thread:theblackw0lf posted:So Debbie Wasserman Schulz is no longer the chief operator of the DNC, though she still retains the title The bernie dropout shares are still in the high 40s and I think this is a key concession in exchange for dropping out before the convention
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Jun 16, 2016 19:17
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nachos posted:Crosspost from another thread: The "Will DWS remain chair" market is going to be extra-salty.
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Jun 16, 2016 19:24
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There's a will Bernie endorse Hillary before the convention market. YES seems like an absolute lock, and is currently only in the high 60s. Even if he doesn't do it tonight, before the convention is almost certain. Then again, if he doesn't do it tonight then your money is locked up in this for the next month or so.
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Jun 16, 2016 19:42
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e_angst posted:There's a will Bernie endorse Hillary before the convention market. ...I don't know if I'd go that far. Bernie might wait for the convention to do it in a floor speech. He can support-without-endorsing prior to that. Trump is polling weak enough where his immediate endorsement isn't required to unite the party, and he has his agenda to push at the convention that depends on his endorsement for leverage. It's certainly very likely that he endorses prior, especially with DWS being given up as a peace offering, but I wouldn't call it a lock.
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Jun 16, 2016 19:51
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OAquinas posted:The "Will DWS remain chair" market is going to be extra-salty. Just nabbed a bunch of extremely cheap NO shares  Nice fuckin scoop it's rare that I get that far ahead of the market. edit: annnnd I flipped 'em. That was an ez :5bux: Necc0 has issued a correction as of 19:58 on Jun 16, 2016 |
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Jun 16, 2016 19:54
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I got the gently caress out of the drop out (NO) market @ .63c. Doubled my $75 and dumped it onto my Warren VP shares. Debating whether I should just totally cash out of everything. I feel like Warren is a lock (and set to make $2.1k if she's picked) but with Trump loving up so bad lately, Clinton might not even need her. And she's not going to choose her unless she absolutely has to.
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Jun 16, 2016 20:32
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I'm baffled why people think Warren is a lock for VP. Strategy-wise, it makes more sense for Clinton to tack right and try to win the votes of Republicans who aren't on board with Trump than to tack left to win the votes of the Bernie supporters who are largely going to vote for her anyway. Demo-wise, having two women on the ticket doesn't seem like a strong move. I also think she would be vulnerable to attack for being under-qualified. And finally, would Warren even accept the nomination? I know she endorsed Hillary but is she ready to sell out completely? The thing that matters most in a VP pick is "will not screw it up". I.e., don't pick a Palin. Lack of negatives means more than the positives. And Warren just seems way too risky for Hillary. She doesn't need a hail mary to win the left. She'll pick some vanilla man.
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Jun 16, 2016 21:09
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Yeah, I'm still thinking Castro or some non-senator technocrat. She knows (from watching Obama's fun if nothing else) that if the Democrats don't control the senate and/or house she's in for a world of unfun lovely drudgery, so preserving every seat should be her priority.
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Jun 16, 2016 21:12
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It's really hard for me to see why Warren would want to be Clinton's VP. She's much more influential where she is in the senate. They also disagree on many of Warren's big issues like banking. I still think it'll be Castro, America's Most Generic Politician.
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Jun 16, 2016 21:33
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SurgicalOntologist posted:I'm baffled why people think Warren is a lock for VP. Strategy-wise, it makes more sense for Clinton to tack right and try to win the votes of Republicans who aren't on board with Trump than to tack left to win the votes of the Bernie supporters who are largely going to vote for her anyway. Demo-wise, having two women on the ticket doesn't seem like a strong move. I also think she would be vulnerable to attack for being under-qualified. And finally, would Warren even accept the nomination? I know she endorsed Hillary but is she ready to sell out completely? You know, generally I'd agree that she should go with a VP that has good contrast (younger, male, from a different part of the country). Then again, that was also the conventional wisdom when Bill was running, and Bill decided on Gore (who had virtually no contrast to Bill since they were both around the same age and from the same part of the country). Honestly, all of that is way way too murky. I wouldn't dare get in the VP market.
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Jun 16, 2016 21:34
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e_angst posted:Then again, that was also the conventional wisdom when Bill was running, and Bill decided on Gore (who had virtually no contrast to Bill since they were both around the same age and from the same part of the country). there was also the Bush/Cheney ticket of two old white Texas oilmen
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Jun 16, 2016 21:53
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Bern Dropout took a huge spike, but it's holding steady at .55 for now. Time to buy in if you haven't.
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Jun 16, 2016 23:00
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Aliquid posted:Bern Dropout took a huge spike, but it's holding steady at .55 for now. Time to buy in if you haven't. Bernie's campaign manager just said Bernie is still a candidate, but not actively trying to flip superdelegates - considering that technically Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Rocky De La Fuente are all still technically candidates, this is going to come down to technical correctness. The best KIND of correctness.
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Jun 16, 2016 23:21
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Hillary's VP is going to be either Perez or Castro. With Trump as your opponent why wouldn't you go with a Hispanic?
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Jun 16, 2016 23:24
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Gyges posted:Hillary's VP is going to be either Perez or Castro. With Trump as your opponent why wouldn't you go with a Hispanic? What will Trump's nickname for Julian Castro be? Taco Julian? Siesta Julian?
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Jun 16, 2016 23:29
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commie castro, no questoin
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Jun 16, 2016 23:46
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Abel Wingnut posted:commie castro, no questoin commie castrato
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Jun 17, 2016 00:22
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Gyges posted:Hillary's VP is going to be either Perez or Castro. With Trump as your opponent why wouldn't you go with a Hispanic? I doubt it will be Castro - why pick a token Hispanic who doesn't even know how to speak Spanish?
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Jun 17, 2016 00:36
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pathetic little tramp posted:Bernie's campaign manager just said Bernie is still a candidate, but not actively trying to flip superdelegates - considering that technically Jim Webb, Lincoln Chafee, and Rocky De La Fuente are all still technically candidates, this is going to come down to technical correctness. The best KIND of correctness. By the standard dropout market rules, all those candidates dropped out (actually don't know about Rocky). These markets don't follow the FEC filings or similar.
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Jun 17, 2016 01:15
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