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Michael Scott posted:Can someone explain what arbitrage (arb) means in the context of PI? Simply buying low and selling high before market conclusion I assume? I bet on poll markets fairly regularly but it's always with the method Necc0 is describing (arbitrage/arbitration/whatever). The goal is to get negative risk. It really only works if you start buying NOs as soon as the weekly market opens. That way there's maximum time for crazy swings to buy lower NOs and sell your old higher NOs. If it's late in the week don't bother. Here's an old screenshot:  if you look under the risk column you'll see that no matter what the average ended up being I would win AT LEAST $17.85. The gain is low because at the time I only had about $150 to invest. And here is from the Texas primary, when I only had like $70 invested:  The best part about it is, if you manage to get negative risk, PI will add your winnings to your account even if the market hasn't closed yet!
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Jun 30, 2016 23:23
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Gyges posted:You can make a pretty decent return on investment without obsessively watching the site. You just have to be willing to sit on the longer markets where you know what is going to happen but the pay off is a ways away. Or bet on shorter markets with the goal of picking the position to ride until the market closes instead of playing the swings. There's a lot less gain, but if you do it right there's not too much risk either. This. If you think Hillary will be the next president, there are 7 contracts out there you can buy in at around ~70 cents each. Sure, you have to wait ~4 months to see if you're right, but its a ~30% ROI.
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Jul 1, 2016 00:16
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BigBobio posted:This. If you think Hillary will be the next president, there are 7 contracts out there you can buy in at around ~70 cents each. Sure, you have to wait ~4 months to see if you're right, but its a ~30% ROI. Just so you know, buying the shares at 70 means .30 in profit per share, which makes it more like a 45% ROI.
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Jul 1, 2016 00:21
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BigBobio posted:This. If you think Hillary will be the next president, there are 7 contracts out there you can buy in at around ~70 cents each. Sure, you have to wait ~4 months to see if you're right, but its a ~30% ROI. That's not how you calculate ROI!!! It's actually 43%!! Edit!! gently caress beaten!!!!!!!
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Jul 1, 2016 00:29
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Actually after the loving rake it's only a 38.6% ROI. 
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Jul 1, 2016 00:34
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BigBobio posted:This. If you think Hillary will be the next president, there are 7 contracts out there you can buy in at around ~70 cents each. Sure, you have to wait ~4 months to see if you're right, but its a ~30% ROI. Can you remind me what the 7 contracts are? I only know which party will win White House.
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Jul 1, 2016 00:35
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whatever7 posted:Can you remind me what the 7 contracts are? I only know which party will win White House. Who will win the White House? Which Party will win the WH? Will the next president be a WOMAN? Will dems win landslide? Will reps win landslide? The last two are 370 EV or better, but if you think your guy will win you can bet "no" on the other's contract for more bucks. There's also the state EV markets, where you can still get good buys on probable wins.
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Jul 1, 2016 00:40
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whatever7 posted:Can you remind me what the 7 contracts are? I only know which party will win White House. Directly Hillary wins markets: Who will win the Election. Which Party will win the Election. Will a Woman Win the Election Will the Republicans get at least 370 Electoral College votes. No on the contract. Weaker Hillary wins markets: Who will be the next Supreme Court Justice. Yes on Garland. Will the Senate confirm any SCOTUS nominee before Obama leaves office. Yes on Garland. Will the Senate vote on any SCOTUS nominee before Obama leaves office. Yes on Garland. Even weaker Hillary wins markets: Democrats get at least 370 Electoral College votes. 2016 voter turnout. No on B6, probably no on B5, pick your poison on the rest. 2012 had 129 million, 2008 had 131 million. The various who will win X state markets also are tied to Hillary winning, but not all directly. Also there are states like New York, California, Texas, and Utah that probably don't matter unless either Trump or Hillary are crushing beyond all reason.
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Jul 1, 2016 00:55
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Probably at some point trump will pull ahead in a lot of polls (not just a few), and you will get a lot better odds. I wouldn't go plowing almost 10k into 11 different "hillary is gonna win" markets just yet.
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Jul 1, 2016 01:16
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CARL MARK FORCE IV posted:Just so you know, buying the shares at 70 means .30 in profit per share, which makes it more like a 45% ROI. Necc0 posted:That's not how you calculate ROI!!! I included the 10% profit penalty, and the 5% withdrawal fee, assuming you put in fresh funds just for these markets and then immediately withdrew it all once you won Gyges posted:Directly Hillary wins markets: You can add "Will Republicans control the white house & congress after 2016" to this list BigBobio has issued a correction as of 01:43 on Jul 1, 2016 |
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Jul 1, 2016 01:36
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Whoops; Double post
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Jul 1, 2016 01:40
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Baddog posted:Probably at some point trump will pull ahead in a lot of polls (not just a few), and you will get a lot better odds. I wouldn't go plowing almost 10k into 11 different "hillary is gonna win" markets just yet.
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Jul 1, 2016 02:30
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Baddog posted:Probably at some point trump will pull ahead in a lot of polls (not just a few), and you will get a lot better odds. I wouldn't go plowing almost 10k into 11 different "hillary is gonna win" markets just yet. True, but now's a good time to start putting in some low rear end bids so you're first in line when Trump inevitably gets a convention bounce and everyone believes the sky is falling.
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Jul 1, 2016 02:53
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Um, I'm getting a "We have reached the max number of traders for this market" in the "Who Will Win the WH?" market
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Jul 1, 2016 03:15
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FourLeaf posted:Um, I'm getting a "We have reached the max number of traders for this market" in the "Who Will Win the WH?" market That's another part of the FTC no-action letter. As far as I know the RNOM markets are the only other ones to hit it. You have to wait for other traders to back out before you'll be allowed to place orders.
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Jul 1, 2016 03:29
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Guess that explains why I'm still not maxed out on Huckabee or Fiorina. I need them to complete my max NO bets on everyone but Hillary.
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Jul 1, 2016 03:51
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Necc0 posted:That's another part of the FTC no-action letter. As far as I know the RNOM markets are the only other ones to hit it. You have to wait for other traders to back out before you'll be allowed to place orders. Didn’t PI formally request that the FTC lift this particular limit? Was that shot down, or is it still working its way through the bureaucracy? Platystemon has issued a correction as of 06:07 on Jul 1, 2016 |
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Jul 1, 2016 06:00
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i really hope bernie dropped out three hours ago
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Jul 1, 2016 08:26
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Platystemon posted:Didn’t PI formally request that the FTC lift this particular limit? They have and the request was granted but I don't know how many times they'll be able to get away with it.
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Jul 1, 2016 12:30
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For some reason Clinton is now only at 90% to win the Dem nomination https://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination
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Jul 1, 2016 15:09
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showbiz_liz posted:For some reason Clinton is now only at 90% to win the Dem nomination https://www.predictit.org/Market/1232/Who-will-win-the-2016-Democratic-presidential-nomination It's because of Lynch's statement this morning. FBI.INDICT is up as well
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Jul 1, 2016 15:10
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Has anyone made a Web or spreadsheet tool that lets you play around with NO-vote risk calculation? I understand the math behind it but I feel like I would have a more intuitive feel if I could push some sliders back and forth, haha.
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Jul 1, 2016 15:31
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Lutha Mahtin posted:Has anyone made a Web or spreadsheet tool that lets you play around with NO-vote risk calculation? I understand the math behind it but I feel like I would have a more intuitive feel if I could push some sliders back and forth, haha. Do you mean arbitrage? That poo poo is hard for me to understand but I think it comes with practice. Some people must have their own self-built calcs. Or do you mean simple yes/no markets?
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Jul 1, 2016 15:35
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I mean a tool where you can see how PredictIt would calculate your risk in a linked market. It would be a thing where you can set the number of markets in the linked contract, and then for each market you can set the prices for NO, and the number of shares you have. Then you could play around with the numbers to see how the risk changes.
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Jul 1, 2016 15:44
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Lutha Mahtin posted:I mean a tool where you can see how PredictIt would calculate your risk in a linked market. It would be a thing where you can set the number of markets in the linked contract, and then for each market you can set the prices for NO, and the number of shares you have. Then you could play around with the numbers to see how the risk changes. I had an excel spreadsheet that would calculate this for me but it was from before linked markets when arbitrating was much more lucrative. I was occasionally pulling 8-12% ROI after all fees. It was mostly driven by the sheer number of somewhat valid Republican nominees and it being significantly cheaper to buy YES on a preferred candidate vs. NO on everyone else. That's not the case any longer. Necc0 has issued a correction as of 15:51 on Jul 1, 2016 |
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Jul 1, 2016 15:48
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so I know very little about brexit outside of reading a few articles weekly, but Gove just declared he wouldn't invoke article 50 until 2017 and I believe May has already said the same thing I just bought some NOs here for 81c - market has barely moved in response: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2982/Will-the-UK-trigger-Article-50-before-October-1#data e: but I guess this Andrea Leadsom is the new Leave candidate? And she has 17% in the Who Will Be the Next PM market, so maybe this isn't as mispriced as it looks. That said, "Before Oct 1st" seems impossible right now, whether the winner is Leadsom or May thethreeman has issued a correction as of 16:59 on Jul 1, 2016 |
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Jul 1, 2016 16:57
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Yeah no one thought they'd ever be able to actually invoke article 50 until next year considering the UK won't have a new PM until September if they're lucky. That market isn't going to move much at all unless we get a real surprise on PM.
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Jul 1, 2016 17:23
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This lynch statement is making me seriously think about picking up some hillary.jail YES. Maybe its just because I got a bunch of money from June closing out. 30 cents still seems high though. This is the only market right? https://www.predictit.org/Contract/1792/ I guess buying some biden would be another way to bet on charges before the convention, even though I think the democrats would still end up ramming her through, charges or no.
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Jul 1, 2016 17:47
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Baddog posted:This lynch statement is making me seriously think about picking up some hillary.jail YES. Maybe its just because I got a bunch of money from June closing out. 30 cents still seems high though. Yeah it's way too late to jump in if you wanted to ride the wave. On the other hand NO is on sale for now
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Jul 1, 2016 17:57
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Baddog posted:This lynch statement is making me seriously think about picking up some hillary.jail YES. Maybe its just because I got a bunch of money from June closing out. 30 cents still seems high though. Lynch said that because she was getting questioned over hanging out with Bill the other day. I'm not sure if it's any different than Obama's "nobody is above the law" statements. I probably don't follow this story closely enough though, given my NO holdings 
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Jul 1, 2016 18:05
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Necc0 posted:Yeah it's way too late to jump in if you wanted to ride the wave. On the other hand NO is on sale for now Lol it has been nothing but bad news for her on this for months now but... EngineerSean posted:If I were that confident, I already would have filled up @ 75 like its been for months now. Lol at going crazy over a drop to 68.
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Jul 1, 2016 18:14
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Lynch's statement was "if anything were to happen, I wouldn't try to stop it from happening." Nowhere in her statement did she actually imply that anything was at all likely to happen. It is the biggest non-story imaginable.
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Jul 1, 2016 18:27
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There has not been a single bit of good news that has come out about this, other than apparently the passage of time. If you think that there's no way she'll get indicted, you probably should have already maxxed bet against it ("maxxed" being a relative term for the maximum you are comfortable with, it is relative). I seriously can't imagine anyone being like "Wow if anything I feel MORE confident about this not happening than I did for the previous six months of it being within ten percent of its current price."
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Jul 1, 2016 18:54
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polls close in most of Australia at 4 AM Eastern US time, if any of you are crazy enough to stay up for that
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Jul 1, 2016 20:11
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EngineerSean posted:There has not been a single bit of good news that has come out about this, other than apparently the passage of time. If you think that there's no way she'll get indicted, you probably should have already maxxed bet against it ("maxxed" being a relative term for the maximum you are comfortable with, it is relative). I seriously can't imagine anyone being like "Wow if anything I feel MORE confident about this not happening than I did for the previous six months of it being within ten percent of its current price." Yeah I already put in as much as I was comfortable with @.74 On the other hand you'd think this market would swing like Biden but it's been remarkably sticky the whole time.
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Jul 1, 2016 20:48
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I'm done with PI for awhile but easy money: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3017/Will-Debbie-Wasserman-Schultz-remain-DNC-chair-through-July New chair is being selected at the convention; she's already fired. Make almost triple your money back.
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Jul 1, 2016 22:41
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The Joe Man posted:I'm done with PI for awhile but easy money: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3017/Will-Debbie-Wasserman-Schultz-remain-DNC-chair-through-July 
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Jul 1, 2016 23:03
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Haha it's already doubled. Whoever makes a shitload of money, feel free to throw me some bones for the hot tip, it'd be massively appreciated  Seriously couldn't even drop a dime, June has been extremely lovely financially due to expected work/jobs being delayed out of my control. EDIT: Holding out for Franken VP though!! My original shares were basically worthless at 7c so I just hung onto them.
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Jul 1, 2016 23:18
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There's only 2388 shares in the wild at the moment; incredibly small market.
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Jul 1, 2016 23:21
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What I'm struggling to understand is, in markets like these, there's little foreseeable reason to get out and sell your shares at .75. Yet we see hundreds of shares for sale at .75, .8. Why is that? Do people have open sell orders open for 'no'? It could only be open sell orders for no or open buy orders for yes, right?
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Jul 1, 2016 23:26
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