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Homework Explainer posted:a very good joke it is the laziest joke about marijuana opinion polling in the world. but i will never, ever get tired of hearing or saying it
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# ? Jul 7, 2016 12:55 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 15:33 |
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lutha do thing
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# ? Jul 7, 2016 23:33 |
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Wait, so you spent 94.45 on shares, and that (Assuming the pick is one of the 20 listed) you'll resolve at $95, and then they take their 33 cent cut (assuming its gingrich--you'll actually lose more if it's, say, Carson). So you'll make 22 cents. Still, free money!
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# ? Jul 7, 2016 23:57 |
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Of course as soon as I sold my Gingrich shares in the high 20s it would shoot up to the loving 40s.
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 00:01 |
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Johnson fundraising markets are going nuts, all the Yes's are still cumulatively less than a buck. It's still a slower market but I've already made in arbitrage. Edit: for the bigger fishes in the thread (not that you need the help) but Johnson Polling >8% NO is at 74 cents. With the DNC AND RNC (and their poll bumps) happening in the next few weeks, it's highly unlikely to happen. But as always, Trump. OAquinas has issued a correction as of 00:18 on Jul 8, 2016 |
# ? Jul 8, 2016 00:12 |
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OAquinas posted:Wait, so you spent 94.45 on shares, and that (Assuming the pick is one of the 20 listed) you'll resolve at $95, and then they take their 33 cent cut (assuming its gingrich--you'll actually lose more if it's, say, Carson). So you'll make 22 cents. Nah, I spent 5 * .69 to buy shares of Newt, then got it refunded to me piecemeal by buying 5 of all the other available candidates. It was kind of a silly thing to do, because I fell one penny short of actually getting guaranteed a profit. And someone in IRC pointed out that this handcuffs me to this strategy, because now I can't effectively take advantage of swings. On the other hand, it's fun and it made me giggle, and hopefully it was good practice for my relevant math skills. And if NOTA wins, I will take home a couple of bucks.
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 00:32 |
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One hapenny short
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 02:09 |
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Hopping Trump doesn't pick because he's the least money option.
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 02:15 |
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lol the republicans promising to bring perjury charges just brought the indictment market back to life. hope y'all got out while the gettin was good
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 02:59 |
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OAquinas posted:Johnson fundraising markets are going nuts, all the Yes's are still cumulatively less than a buck. It's still a slower market but I've already made in arbitrage. The >$1M fundraising for June is in the 60s (and I was gobbling it up at 80c)... There doesn't seem to be hard evidence or quotes driving it, but maybe I'm missing why the articles people are posting are indicative of anything Lutha Mahtin posted:Nah, I spent 5 * .69 to buy shares of Newt, then got it refunded to me piecemeal by buying 5 of all the other available candidates. It was kind of a silly thing to do, because I fell one penny short of actually getting guaranteed a profit. And someone in IRC pointed out that this handcuffs me to this strategy, because now I can't effectively take advantage of swings. On the other hand, it's fun and it made me giggle, and hopefully it was good practice for my relevant math skills. And if NOTA wins, I will take home a couple of bucks. for example, if you bought 10 NOs for all of the VPs except Newt (instead of buying Newt YESes for whatever reason), then it swung his way when Trump said something, and you want to capture your profit - instead of liquidating all of your NOs, you can just buy Newt NOs for a penny (or whatever) and you end up with negative risk equivalent to the profit you would have gotten from the gains on your YESes, and negative risk is credited to your account right away or, in another scenario, if you already bought NOs for all of the contracts, and want to take advantage of swings, just start selling the ones you own or buying more of them - selling a NO is identical to buying a YES and vice-versa... so while playing swings looks funnier, because you're starting from a weird baseline of already HAVING a bunch of NO shares in every contract, the math works out the same way. Large bid/ask spreads can break this, but it's not clear to benefit one strategy or the other also, I tried to model this quickly in a spreadsheet but I'm having trouble making all the numbers tie perfectly, so the PI 10% fee might be messing it up somehow, but the gains come out almost identical either way
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 06:03 |
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thethreeman posted:The >$1M fundraising for June is in the 60s (and I was gobbling it up at 80c)... There doesn't seem to be hard evidence or quotes driving it, but maybe I'm missing why the articles people are posting are indicative of anything The 10% rake fucks with profits. The more you make, the bigger their cut, which wipes out a bunch of the penny picks. And since its based off of profit, the more you make the more the cut is--this really factors in when you're buying at 99/98. You're still making a profit, but its very marginal.
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 08:19 |
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Lutha Mahtin posted:
Hope you get your $.22
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 16:08 |
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they just added ivanka to the VP market
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:11 |
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Fuckin finally
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:14 |
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Lutha Mahtin posted:they just added ivanka to the VP market There's your half cent! Edit: lol i didn't realize the shares would only be 1c, picked up a hundred because why not. EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 19:29 on Jul 8, 2016 |
# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:26 |
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EngineerSean posted:There's your half cent! lol same. worth it, imo
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:39 |
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EngineerSean posted:There's your half cent! i can see the future, i knew they would add ivanka
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# ? Jul 8, 2016 20:28 |
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So it seems about 40,500 people bought Ivanka lotto tickets and 40,500 people went with the "free penny" today. I went with the free penny, but, man, I really hope there's 40,500 lotto winners come announcement.
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# ? Jul 9, 2016 01:18 |
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There's not even 40.5k people on the site but i did my part by buying another 100.
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# ? Jul 9, 2016 02:06 |
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Gyges posted:So it seems about 40,500 people bought Ivanka lotto tickets and 40,500 people went with the "free penny" today. Constitutionally you can't have a president and vice president on a ticket who are both residents of the same state. Now there have been ways to get around this in the past (Cheney was a resident of Texas along with GW Bush, but he also had a residence in Wyoming to cover his rear end there). However, having an actual married couple who are living together be on the same ticket would be too much for the courts to ignore. No way it can happen. Then again, just because it's explicitly unconstitutional doesn't mean Trump won't try to do it...
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 08:05 |
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Nothing that says a Pres/VP can't be from the same state. The electors of that state can't vote for both, however, so depending on the EV calculus that's an un-necessary risk to take. That said, if you're both from a state that you're gonna lose anyway (or you're blowing out the other party safely enough) you could totally do it. And Ivanka is his daughter. Melania is not eligible since she's an
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 11:37 |
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Mike Flynn will be GOP VP. I expect tribute from all of you after this comes to pass.
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 12:11 |
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I really hope that Trump names someone no one else has ever even considered to be on the list before. Just because it would be hilariously Trump. With the side benefit of making me a lot of money, of course. Then I hope they turn him down after the public announcement and the market and comments go totally batshit.
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 13:51 |
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The fact that "well, it's Trump" is why I believe I have a non-negligible chance of winning the $5 NOTA result with my silly GOP VP strategy, the one I posted a screenshot of the other day. He's made so many half-baked decisions that it's pretty hard to legitimately predict anything he does.
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 22:01 |
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Actually, I realize now that what I really crave is for Trump to make a pick that absolutely no one could have predicted. Then after the convention have some insane Eagleton poo poo go down and then have a new market pop up with an even longer list of fever dream options for me to bet against.
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 22:06 |
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My maximum hilarity scenario is also he makes some crazy pick they reject at the RNC. Forcing someone he doesn't want to be the VP causing Trump to have an epic meltdown and threaten to drop out of the race.quote:WASHINGTON — Anti-Trump delegates are preparing a rules change proposal that would chart a path for delegates to choose their own vice presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention, instead of voting for Donald Trump’s choice. https://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/anti-trump-delegates-are-making-a-plan-to-pick-their-own-vic?utm_term=.xqD7QxaYL&bftw=pol#.ieYpzwWPN
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 22:44 |
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RVP market going nuts over this article http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/10/donald-trump-likely-choose-indiana-gov-mike-pence-/
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# ? Jul 10, 2016 23:32 |
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Gotta love the people trying to argue against Pence in favor for Cruz. Lotta effort towards that impossible pump. https://twitter.com/KennyGGee/status/752279666719850496
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 00:20 |
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Gotta admit I'm stunned Trump is willing to overlook Pence endorsing Cruz.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 00:42 |
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FourLeaf posted:Gotta admit I'm stunned Trump is willing to overlook Pence endorsing Cruz. That really seems like one of the much more minor reasons not to go with Pence. Trumpian ego aside.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 00:47 |
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Gyges posted:That really seems like one of the much more minor reasons not to go with Pence. Trumpian ego aside. That's just it though. With Trump I'm not sure if we can put ego aside.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 01:05 |
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FourLeaf posted:That's just it though. With Trump I'm not sure if we can put ego aside. Word seems to be that Pence is the choice conservative parts of the GOP are pushing for him to make. If he does go with that option, the role of VP will probably be to fund raise while Trump himself talks about how much money he has and man it's sweet not needing to ask for money because he's so tremendously tremendously rich. Whether he ends up bowing to their demands or not, is another story.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 01:27 |
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Plus it just works like some celeb couple. Trumppence 2016
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 03:33 |
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Did some new news come out on the Pence front? The market is flipping back to not believing in Pence.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:24 |
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Gyges posted:Did some new news come out on the Pence front? The market is flipping back to not believing in Pence. Maybe people are having issues juxtaposing "racial healer" with "Pence" on the ticket. ...probably just whales moving the tides though.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:32 |
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Gyges posted:Did some new news come out on the Pence front? The market is flipping back to not believing in Pence. https://twitter.com/costareports/status/752529015521501184 https://twitter.com/costareports/status/752521734054506496 quote:The session, which took place at an unknown location, was described by a third person, a Trump ally, as an informal interview that was the last part of Christie’s vetting. That person said that Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) and Christie are now the favorites to be selected in the coming days by the presumptive Republican nominee, with Pence the more likely selection.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:46 |
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https://twitter.com/costareports/status/752527428103262208 I really hope he doesn't announce until after tomorrow so I can cash out all my Bernie endorsing Hillary market shares
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:47 |
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let's go team Pence having said that, here's a serious protip: start thinking about what happens if team #nevertrump gets the vote to the floor
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 21:39 |
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Adar posted:
My plan is to sell Pence YES when they get high enough and then pick up some penny stocks on Pence NO after that for just such an occasion. Selling the YES should more than cover the loss on Pence NO if he does become the nominee and I get the money this week.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 21:44 |
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# ? May 28, 2024 15:33 |
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So there's a "chart" tab on the main page of linked markets. Mind. Blown.
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# ? Jul 11, 2016 22:06 |