PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

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Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

Homework Explainer posted:

a very good joke

it is the laziest joke about marijuana opinion polling in the world. but i will never, ever get tired of hearing or saying it

# ? Jul 7, 2016 12:55

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# ? May 13, 2024 21:40

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

lutha do thing :q:

# ? Jul 7, 2016 23:33

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Wait, so you spent 94.45 on shares, and that (Assuming the pick is one of the 20 listed) you'll resolve at $95, and then they take their 33 cent cut (assuming its gingrich--you'll actually lose more if it's, say, Carson). So you'll make 22 cents.

Still, free money!

# ? Jul 7, 2016 23:57

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

Of course as soon as I sold my Gingrich shares in the high 20s it would shoot up to the loving 40s.

# ? Jul 8, 2016 00:01

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Johnson fundraising markets are going nuts, all the Yes's are still cumulatively less than a buck. It's still a slower market but I've already made :10bux:

in arbitrage.

Edit: for the bigger fishes in the thread (not that you need the help) but Johnson Polling >8% NO is at 74 cents. With the DNC AND RNC (and their poll bumps) happening in the next few weeks, it's highly unlikely to happen. But as always, Trump.

OAquinas has issued a correction as of 00:18 on Jul 8, 2016

# ? Jul 8, 2016 00:12

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

OAquinas posted:

Wait, so you spent 94.45 on shares, and that (Assuming the pick is one of the 20 listed) you'll resolve at $95, and then they take their 33 cent cut (assuming its gingrich--you'll actually lose more if it's, say, Carson). So you'll make 22 cents.

Nah, I spent 5 * .69 to buy shares of Newt, then got it refunded to me piecemeal by buying 5 of all the other available candidates. It was kind of a silly thing to do, because I fell one penny short of actually getting guaranteed a profit. And someone in IRC pointed out that this handcuffs me to this strategy, because now I can't effectively take advantage of swings. On the other hand, it's fun and it made me giggle, and hopefully it was good practice for my relevant math skills. And if NOTA wins, I will take home a couple of bucks.

# ? Jul 8, 2016 00:32

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

One hapenny short

# ? Jul 8, 2016 02:09

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Hopping Trump doesn't pick :newt:

because he's the least money option.

# ? Jul 8, 2016 02:15

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

lol the republicans promising to bring perjury charges just brought the indictment market back to life. hope y'all got out while the gettin was good

# ? Jul 8, 2016 02:59

thethreeman: May 10, 2008; Fallen Rib

OAquinas posted:

Johnson fundraising markets are going nuts, all the Yes's are still cumulatively less than a buck. It's still a slower market but I've already made in arbitrage.

Edit: for the bigger fishes in the thread (not that you need the help) but Johnson Polling >8% NO is at 74 cents. With the DNC AND RNC (and their poll bumps) happening in the next few weeks, it's highly unlikely to happen. But as always, Trump.

The >$1M fundraising for June is in the 60s (and I was gobbling it up at 80c)... There doesn't seem to be hard evidence or quotes driving it, but maybe I'm missing why the articles people are posting are indicative of anything

Lutha Mahtin posted:

Nah, I spent 5 * .69 to buy shares of Newt, then got it refunded to me piecemeal by buying 5 of all the other available candidates. It was kind of a silly thing to do, because I fell one penny short of actually getting guaranteed a profit. And someone in IRC pointed out that this handcuffs me to this strategy, because now I can't effectively take advantage of swings. On the other hand, it's fun and it made me giggle, and hopefully it was good practice for my relevant math skills. And if NOTA wins, I will take home a couple of bucks.

the IRC person isn't really correct. When you buy NOs instead of YESes, nothing really changes - instead of selling your YES shares when they rise, you can always buy the NO shares you *aren't* holding to take advantage of swings

for example, if you bought 10 NOs for all of the VPs except Newt (instead of buying Newt YESes for whatever reason), then it swung his way when Trump said something, and you want to capture your profit - instead of liquidating all of your NOs, you can just buy Newt NOs for a penny (or whatever) and you end up with negative risk equivalent to the profit you would have gotten from the gains on your YESes, and negative risk is credited to your account right away

or, in another scenario, if you already bought NOs for all of the contracts, and want to take advantage of swings, just start selling the ones you own or buying more of them - selling a NO is identical to buying a YES and vice-versa... so while playing swings looks funnier, because you're starting from a weird baseline of already HAVING a bunch of NO shares in every contract, the math works out the same way. Large bid/ask spreads can break this, but it's not clear to benefit one strategy or the other

also, I tried to model this quickly in a spreadsheet but I'm having trouble making all the numbers tie perfectly, so the PI 10% fee might be messing it up somehow, but the gains come out almost identical either way

# ? Jul 8, 2016 06:03

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

thethreeman posted:

The >$1M fundraising for June is in the 60s (and I was gobbling it up at 80c)... There doesn't seem to be hard evidence or quotes driving it, but maybe I'm missing why the articles people are posting are indicative of anything

the IRC person isn't really correct. When you buy NOs instead of YESes, nothing really changes - instead of selling your YES shares when they rise, you can always buy the NO shares you *aren't* holding to take advantage of swings

for example, if you bought 10 NOs for all of the VPs except Newt (instead of buying Newt YESes for whatever reason), then it swung his way when Trump said something, and you want to capture your profit - instead of liquidating all of your NOs, you can just buy Newt NOs for a penny (or whatever) and you end up with negative risk equivalent to the profit you would have gotten from the gains on your YESes, and negative risk is credited to your account right away

or, in another scenario, if you already bought NOs for all of the contracts, and want to take advantage of swings, just start selling the ones you own or buying more of them - selling a NO is identical to buying a YES and vice-versa... so while playing swings looks funnier, because you're starting from a weird baseline of already HAVING a bunch of NO shares in every contract, the math works out the same way. Large bid/ask spreads can break this, but it's not clear to benefit one strategy or the other

also, I tried to model this quickly in a spreadsheet but I'm having trouble making all the numbers tie perfectly, so the PI 10% fee might be messing it up somehow, but the gains come out almost identical either way

The 10% rake fucks with profits. The more you make, the bigger their cut, which wipes out a bunch of the penny picks. And since its based off of profit, the more you make the more the cut is--this really factors in when you're buying at 99/98. You're still making a profit, but its very marginal.

# ? Jul 8, 2016 08:19

Michael Scott: Jan 3, 2010; by zen death robot

Lutha Mahtin posted:

lutha do thing

Hope you get your $.22

# ? Jul 8, 2016 16:08

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

they just added ivanka to the VP market :lol:

# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:11

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

Fuckin finally

# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:14

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

Lutha Mahtin posted:

they just added ivanka to the VP market

There's your half cent!

Edit: lol i didn't realize the shares would only be 1c, picked up a hundred because why not.

EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 19:29 on Jul 8, 2016

# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:26

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

EngineerSean posted:

There's your half cent!

Edit: lol i didn't realize the shares would only be 1c, picked up a hundred because why not.

lol same. worth it, imo

# ? Jul 8, 2016 19:39

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

EngineerSean posted:

There's your half cent!

i can see the future, i knew they would add ivanka

# ? Jul 8, 2016 20:28

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

So it seems about 40,500 people bought Ivanka lotto tickets and 40,500 people went with the "free penny" today.

I went with the free penny, but, man, I really hope there's 40,500 lotto winners come announcement.

# ? Jul 9, 2016 01:18

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

There's not even 40.5k people on the site but i did my part by buying another 100.

# ? Jul 9, 2016 02:06

e_angst: Sep 20, 2001; by exmarx

Gyges posted:

So it seems about 40,500 people bought Ivanka lotto tickets and 40,500 people went with the "free penny" today.

I went with the free penny, but, man, I really hope there's 40,500 lotto winners come announcement.

Constitutionally you can't have a president and vice president on a ticket who are both residents of the same state. Now there have been ways to get around this in the past (Cheney was a resident of Texas along with GW Bush, but he also had a residence in Wyoming to cover his rear end there). However, having an actual married couple who are living together be on the same ticket would be too much for the courts to ignore. No way it can happen.

Then again, just because it's explicitly unconstitutional doesn't mean Trump won't try to do it...

# ? Jul 10, 2016 08:05

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Nothing that says a Pres/VP can't be from the same state. The electors of that state can't vote for both, however, so depending on the EV calculus that's an un-necessary risk to take.

That said, if you're both from a state that you're gonna lose anyway (or you're blowing out the other party safely enough) you could totally do it.

And Ivanka is his daughter. Melania is not eligible since she's an ~~import~~ immigrant.

# ? Jul 10, 2016 11:37

Oiled and Ready: Oct 11, 2004; He wished it could be as respectable and orthodox as spying. But somehow in his hands the traditional tools and attitudes were always employed toward mean ends: cloak for a laundry sack, dagger to peel potatoes, dossiers to fill up dead Sunday afternoons ...

Mike Flynn will be GOP VP. I expect tribute from all of you after this comes to pass.

# ? Jul 10, 2016 12:11

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

I really hope that Trump names someone no one else has ever even considered to be on the list before. Just because it would be hilariously Trump. With the side benefit of making me a lot of money, of course.

Then I hope they turn him down after the public announcement and the market and comments go totally batshit.

# ? Jul 10, 2016 13:51

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

The fact that "well, it's Trump" is why I believe I have a non-negligible chance of winning the $5 NOTA result with my silly GOP VP strategy, the one I posted a screenshot of the other day. He's made so many half-baked decisions that it's pretty hard to legitimately predict anything he does.

# ? Jul 10, 2016 22:01

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Actually, I realize now that what I really crave is for Trump to make a pick that absolutely no one could have predicted. Then after the convention have some insane Eagleton poo poo go down and then have a new market pop up with an even longer list of fever dream options for me to bet against.

# ? Jul 10, 2016 22:06

dangling pointer: Feb 12, 2010

My maximum hilarity scenario is also he makes some crazy pick they reject at the RNC. Forcing someone he doesn't want to be the VP causing Trump to have an epic meltdown and threaten to drop out of the race.

quote:

WASHINGTON � Anti-Trump delegates are preparing a rules change proposal that would chart a path for delegates to choose their own vice presidential nominee at the Republican National Convention, instead of voting for Donald Trump�s choice.

A draft proposal obtained by BuzzFeed News outlines several changes to Rule 40 that would make it easier for delegates to reject whomever Trump picks as his running mate and present their own alternative. BuzzFeed News has learned that it will be presented at the Rules Committee meeting next week in Cleveland ahead of the convention.

Already, delegates are technically not bound to vote for the nominee's choice for vice president. But in the past, vice presidential picks have largely been automatically ratified by the convention after being chosen by the nominee.

This year is different, as a vocal contingent of anti-Trump delegates to the convention are searching for ways to stop Trump from being nominated � or, failing that, to at least assert control over the party�s vice presidential nominee.

The proposed rules change centers around Rule 40, which has already been a topic of much discussion this year. One of the rule's clauses requires a candidate to win the support of the majority of delegates in eight states in order to be considered for the nomination. The rule was changed from five to eight states in 2012 to prevent Ron Paul�s name from being given as an option. Changing that rule would allow non-Trump candidates to be considered for the nomination on the floor.

Here�s the gist of the proposed changes regarding choosing the vice presidential nominee:

Deleting the clause in rule 40(a) which says that if there is only one candidate for VP, a �a motion to nominate for such office by acclamation shall be in order and no calling of the roll with respect to such office shall be required.�

Adding a clause in rule 40(b) that would require the candidate for the VP nomination to have support from a majority of delegates from three or more states � a lower threshhold than eight.

Attempting to minimize the amount of influence the presidential nominee has in this process, by adding the following sentence: �The preference of any candidate seeking nomination for president of the United States shall have no bearing upon the submission of names for nomination for vice president of the United States nor the recording of votes for the same.�

Adding a new clause that calls for multiple rounds of voting if a VP candidate doesn�t reach ⅔ on the first round: �If no vice- presidential candidate shall have received a two-thirds in the first round of balloting, the chairman of the convention shall direct the roll of the states be called again and shall repeat the calling of the roll until a candidate shall have received a majority of the votes entitled to be cast in the convention in the subsequent roll of the states.�

A source with the Free the Delegates movmeent, a group that is attempting to stop Trump by advocating that delegates be able to vote their conscience at the convention instead of remaining bound, described the proposal as the "arranged marriage option."

"It�s a counterweight to Trump," the source said. "It�s the grassroots saying if you�re going to do this, you�re going to do it with our pick."

Getting delegations from three states to get behind a candidate is a threshold that is �high enough to weed out crazy people, while low enough to let a few states come to terms� with a candidate, the source said.

The change �will take the decision making out of the hands of the RNC and Trump and into the hands of delegates,� the source said.

A Rules Committee member who has seen the proposal described it as �a clarification of what delegates are allowed to do. It also makes it easier for that decision to go to the delegates rather than be decided by acclimation.�

One of the main arguments against attempts to block Trump at the convention has been that the voters have spoken; Trump won the primary fair and square.

But, the Rules Committee member pointed out, �obviously, that doesn�t apply to the vice presidential nomination.�

�We don�t know who Trump would pick for that position but I think we have a right to have a say on that,� the member said.

Trump has said that he will announce his vice-presidential pick ahead of the convention. Top contenders include Newt Gingrich, Indiana Gov. Mike Pence, and according to the Washington Post, retired Gen. Mike Flynn.

https://www.buzzfeed.com/rosiegray/anti-trump-delegates-are-making-a-plan-to-pick-their-own-vic?utm_term=.xqD7QxaYL&bftw=pol#.ieYpzwWPN

# ? Jul 10, 2016 22:44

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

RVP market going nuts over this article

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/jul/10/donald-trump-likely-choose-indiana-gov-mike-pence-/

# ? Jul 10, 2016 23:32

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Gotta love the people trying to argue against Pence in favor for Cruz. Lotta effort towards that impossible pump.

https://twitter.com/KennyGGee/status/752279666719850496

# ? Jul 11, 2016 00:20

FourLeaf: Dec 2, 2011

Gotta admit I'm stunned Trump is willing to overlook Pence endorsing Cruz.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 00:42

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

FourLeaf posted:

Gotta admit I'm stunned Trump is willing to overlook Pence endorsing Cruz.

That really seems like one of the much more minor reasons not to go with Pence. Trumpian ego aside.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 00:47

FourLeaf: Dec 2, 2011

Gyges posted:

That really seems like one of the much more minor reasons not to go with Pence. Trumpian ego aside.

That's just it though. With Trump I'm not sure if we can put ego aside.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 01:05

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

FourLeaf posted:

That's just it though. With Trump I'm not sure if we can put ego aside.

Word seems to be that Pence is the choice conservative parts of the GOP are pushing for him to make. If he does go with that option, the role of VP will probably be to fund raise while Trump himself talks about how much money he has and man it's sweet not needing to ask for money because he's so tremendously tremendously rich. Whether he ends up bowing to their demands or not, is another story.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 01:27

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Plus it just works like some celeb couple.

Trumppence 2016

# ? Jul 11, 2016 03:33

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Did some new news come out on the Pence front? The market is flipping back to not believing in Pence.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:24

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Gyges posted:

Did some new news come out on the Pence front? The market is flipping back to not believing in Pence.

Maybe people are having issues juxtaposing "racial healer" with "Pence" on the ticket.

...probably just whales moving the tides though.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:32

FourLeaf: Dec 2, 2011

Gyges posted:

Did some new news come out on the Pence front? The market is flipping back to not believing in Pence.

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/752529015521501184

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/752521734054506496

quote:

The session, which took place at an unknown location, was described by a third person, a Trump ally, as an informal interview that was the last part of Christie�s vetting. That person said that Indiana Gov. Mike Pence (R) and Christie are now the favorites to be selected in the coming days by the presumptive Republican nominee, with Pence the more likely selection.

Still, the person said, Trump and Christie have a strong rapport and are more personally close than Pence and Trump, and that dynamic has lifted Christie in the search. Christie is also managing the presidential transition project for Trump.

Others mentioned as possibilities by Trump associates, such as former House speaker Newt Gingrich and retired Lt. Gen Michael T. Flynn, remain well-liked by Trump but are not seen as leading candidates.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:46

FourLeaf: Dec 2, 2011

https://twitter.com/costareports/status/752527428103262208

I really hope he doesn't announce until after tomorrow so I can cash out all my Bernie endorsing Hillary market shares

# ? Jul 11, 2016 19:47

Adar: Jul 27, 2001

let's go team Pence

having said that, here's a serious protip: start thinking about what happens if team #nevertrump gets the vote to the floor

# ? Jul 11, 2016 21:39

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Adar posted:

let's go team Pence

having said that, here's a serious protip: start thinking about what happens if team #nevertrump gets the vote to the floor

My plan is to sell Pence YES when they get high enough and then pick up some penny stocks on Pence NO after that for just such an occasion. Selling the YES should more than cover the loss on Pence NO if he does become the nominee and I get the money this week.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 21:44

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# ? May 13, 2024 21:40

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

So there's a "chart" tab on the main page of linked markets. Mind. Blown.

# ? Jul 11, 2016 22:06

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

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