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Mia Wasikowska
Oct 7, 2006

GalacticAcid posted:

Let's get down ballot baby.

The WV governor's race is sort of unfortunate.

Bill Cole is the Republican, the Democrat is coal tycoon Jim Justice. The renowned coal country journalist Ken Ward Jr has been heavily critical of Justice for his refusal to accept the reality that coal mining will never be the economic driver it once was, and for his climate change denial.

It's too bad. Earl Ray Tomblin has been, in my view, a bright spot for the Democrats in a tough state.

Justice seems like a huckster but he had the UMWA's endorsement in the primary.

a guy named cole vs. a coal tycoon is so west virginia

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The Maroon Hawk
May 10, 2008

I just really, really hope the Dems take back the CO state Senate this year (they already have the House). There have been several really good bills passed by the House recently that have been killed by the Senate. It's literally a one-seat margin so it shouldn't be too hard for them to pull off in a presidential year...I hope...

fishmech
Jul 16, 2006

by VideoGames
Salad Prong

FMguru posted:

Also automation: machines and techniques have gotten good enough that a dozen people can now extract the same amount of coal that used to take hundreds of workers to do.

Even before coal use started to fall, coal jobs were disappearing.

Note: the jobs were already disappearing in a big way due to the technology in like the late 60s and early 70s, that's how far back it all goes. Coal's been hosed as mass employment for nearly 50 years.

Chokes McGee
Aug 7, 2008

This is Urotsuki.

Taerkar posted:

That bit in parentheses is why I'm so worried about Kentucky. The state legislature is teetering on that precipice and our governor is noted sociopath Matt Bevin.

We're so hosed.

So very, very hosed.

Mia Wasikowska
Oct 7, 2006

God Florida is really gonna vote Rubio back in after everything aren't they?


The Maroon Hawk posted:

I just really, really hope the Dems take back the CO state Senate this year (they already have the House). There have been several really good bills passed by the House recently that have been killed by the Senate. It's literally a one-seat margin so it shouldn't be too hard for them to pull off in a presidential year...I hope...

CO seems very blue lately, I wouldn't be surprised

Taerkar
Dec 7, 2002

kind of into it, really

Chokes McGee posted:

We're so hosed.

So very, very hosed.

At least there's lots of booze in the state!

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib

in case anyone missed this getting drowned in vp speculation in the gop thread. Given recent polls have all had blunt up, this could be a good sign for kander. We'll know tmrw

The Maroon Hawk
May 10, 2008

Zas posted:

CO seems very blue lately, I wouldn't be surprised

Yeah, I'm fairly certain taking back the Senate is easily doable, but we did just send Cory Gardner to the Senate so my faith is still a little bruised :eng99:

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

how long do you think it'll be before cook et al start giving house districts (and other things elected every two years) different ratings depending on whether it's a presidential year or not

do they already do that?

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Zas posted:

God Florida is really gonna vote Rubio back in after everything aren't they?
I blame that more on the state Democratic party than Rubio being a decent candidate

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax

Badger of Basra posted:

how long do you think it'll be before cook et al start giving house districts (and other things elected every two years) different ratings depending on whether it's a presidential year or not

do they already do that?
They do. But its more than just that, candidate quality is also a huge factor, along with polling and spending. That said, they actually change ratings as races develop so its less that they are specifically resetting things as it is that things reset naturally and they try to stay ahead of the curve. Here's one instance of it, the samples taken by polling firms are weighted by certain groups in order to have an accurate selection of ages, races, genders and political beliefs. But its the polling companies themselves picking how those groups will turn out that makes the difference in who is polled as being ahead in close races. They very much base that on the presence of up-ballot races, among other things.

HUGE PUBES A PLUS
Apr 30, 2005

Hello, downballot thread. If you're interested, here is a web page with all of the people running in state elections in the Michigan August 2 primary.

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/candlist/16PRI/16PRI_CL.HTM

My name will be on the local precinct ballot for precinct delegate. I am the only Democrat running in my precinct.

pathetic little tramp
Dec 12, 2005

by Hillary Clinton's assassins
Fallen Rib
https://twitter.com/laura_swinford/status/753960720899969024

Missouri senate race, Kander within MOE of Blunt. That's an insane result

Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

bloy runt if you ask me

axeil
Feb 14, 2006
So with the Trump VP pick is IN-GOV now in play? Do they even have a replacement candidate yet?

Shinjobi
Jul 10, 2008


Gravy Boat 2k

HUGE PUBES A PLUS posted:

Hello, downballot thread. If you're interested, here is a web page with all of the people running in state elections in the Michigan August 2 primary.

http://miboecfr.nictusa.com/election/candlist/16PRI/16PRI_CL.HTM

My name will be on the local precinct ballot for precinct delegate. I am the only Democrat running in my precinct.

I would vote for you if I could, huge pubes.

Jazerus
May 24, 2011


axeil posted:

So with the Trump VP pick is IN-GOV now in play? Do they even have a replacement candidate yet?

IN GOP: :derp:

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Isn't Pence incredibly unpopular in IN? They might have a better shot of keeping the governorship now

FlamingLiberal
Jan 18, 2009

Would you like to play a game?



Badger of Basra posted:

Isn't Pence incredibly unpopular in IN? They might have a better shot of keeping the governorship now
Indiana is not the greatest place for Democrats to do well

evilweasel
Aug 24, 2002

Badger of Basra posted:

Isn't Pence incredibly unpopular in IN? They might have a better shot of keeping the governorship now

Yeah, IN GOP was hoping Pence would get picked so they could go with literally anyone else.

thethreeman
May 10, 2008
Fallen Rib
IN GOP is holding a vote on the 26th to replace him: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article89806712.html

Three contenders: Lt Gov Eric Holcomb and Reps Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita. I know nothing about any of them if anyone else has a clue?

Cant wait for polls of all of them vs Gregg

pathetic little tramp posted:

https://twitter.com/laura_swinford/status/753960720899969024

Missouri senate race, Kander within MOE of Blunt. That's an insane result

Hugely impt for context: Hillary is down 10 in this same poll, so Kander being down 3 is great. From the PPP page:

quote:

One thing that's particularly striking is how poor Blunt's numbers are within his own party- only 49% of Republicans approve of the job he's doing to 26% who disapprove. Kander is actually winning more support now from Republicans (13%) than Blunt is from Democrats (10%) despite Blunt's far longer presence on the statewide scene. Kander is currently known to only 38% of voters in the state, so a lot of the direction this goes may depend on how voters feel about him as they get to know him better over the next 4 months.

But apparently 47% of the undecided voters are trump supporters (vs 30% for hillary), so blunt's lead would double if they voted party line

PPP link: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/missouri/

Paper With Lines
Aug 21, 2013

The snozzberries taste like snozzberries!

I was seeing stories about how Indiana Republicans are kind of excited because it allows for a possible promotion that wasn't possible with Pence staying. Especially now that Bayh is going to go against Young.

oystertoadfish
Jun 17, 2003

there's a congressional runoff a week from today for the republican nomination in safely red GA-03 - dentist drew ferguson vs guy who said he'd shoot a cop trying to enter his house even if he had a warrant mike crane

the guy who doesn't wanna kill cops is considered the favorite in this race

what little polling there is shows ferguson ahead. ferguson hit crane on the whole 'killing cops serving warrants' issue and crane's response ads have been described as 'some of my best friends are cops'. what a bunch of silly-o's

i think crane said that poo poo in a private venue but i guess ferguson had some intern following him around, as is the practice. it was framed in a home defense libertarian sort of way incidentally this is not a blm activist or anything. but yeah republican primary electorates are generally rather pro-cop so i think the consensus is that it was a bit of a blunder, to talk about wanting to shoot them

oystertoadfish has issued a correction as of 16:40 on Jul 19, 2016

Troy Queef
Jan 12, 2013




thethreeman posted:

IN GOP is holding a vote on the 26th to replace him: http://www.mcclatchydc.com/news/politics-government/national-politics/article89806712.html

Three contenders: Lt Gov Eric Holcomb and Reps Susan Brooks and Todd Rokita. I know nothing about any of them if anyone else has a clue?

Cant wait for polls of all of them vs Gregg


Hugely impt for context: Hillary is down 10 in this same poll, so Kander being down 3 is great. From the PPP page:


But apparently 47% of the undecided voters are trump supporters (vs 30% for hillary), so blunt's lead would double if they voted party line

PPP link: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/missouri/

A bit of context from someone that lives here:
--Right now Missouri's in the midst of some very nasty GOP primary battles (a two-way race for AG and a four-way contest for governor) while the Dems have lined up candidates in these races, are sitting back on their hands and waiting for the dust to clear. This is even more interesting because MO has no restrictions on political contributions, which not only makes it easy to see who's being backed by whom (check out this piece for more: http://www.stltoday.com/news/local/...ee972647a4.html ) but one of current leader Eric Greitens' whales is currently being sued by a woman who alleges that he (the donor, not Greitens) kept her as a sex-slave for 13 years.
--Kander is an Iraq vet who started off as a state legislator in KC, then won SoS by painting his opponent as an extremist (I remember one of his ads saying something to the effect of "When I served, I made sure to get an absentee ballot so I could make my voice heard. My opponent wants to greatly restrict voting by mail. Why does he want to make it impossible for the people defending our democracy to participate in that democracy?")
--The name "Blunt" is still very toxic, because Roy's son Matt was MO Gov between 2004-08 and became very, VERY unpopular by gutting Medicaid, deleting thousands of emails (in blatant violation of open-records laws) where he apparently tried to use his power to influence outside political groups, and made statements saying that "people don't want to live in St Louis or Kansas City" which only furthered his reputation as only having the interests of Southwest Missouri, the Blunt family's base of power, at heart.
--Missouri hates Kansas, and their political decisions are pretty much the elephant in the room in this election. That and right-to-work: a couple times it's been passed by the State Lege, only to not have a veto-proof majority because there's a sizable number of GOP lawmakers from STL/KC whose districts have a good number of union workers, and repeated polls (including the PPP one I quoted) have shown that most people here don't want it.

Badger of Basra
Jul 26, 2007

Did anything ever result from that guy who killed himself because of an antisemitic whisper campaign?

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Fundraising report for VT Senate race came out today.

Pat "I am the Batman" Leahy (D) - $3,000,000+
Scott "Lifelong Vermonter, Hold on I was Born in Brooklyn" Milne (R) - $83

Though George Aiken did win his last race with $13.

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax
First IN-Sen poll is out, Bayh is crushing it at over fifty percent, Young is back at 39. Bear in mind, Indiana is a conservative state with Trumpish interests in a presidential year, so that will probably narrow somewhat. However, unless Young can produce a quality poll saying something different, you gotta say that race is lean D at this point.

Leon Trotsky 2012
Aug 27, 2009

YOU CAN TRUST ME!*


*Israeli Government-affiliated poster

Cliff Racer posted:

First IN-Sen poll is out, Bayh is crushing it at over fifty percent, Young is back at 39. Bear in mind, Indiana is a conservative state with Trumpish interests in a presidential year, so that will probably narrow somewhat. However, unless Young can produce a quality poll saying something different, you gotta say that race is lean D at this point.

Which poll is this?

The only one I can find is the DSCC internal poll they released with Bayh up 54 - 33. Good numbers, but it is an internal campaign one, so take with some caution.

TROIKA CURES GREEK
Jun 30, 2015

by R. Guyovich
Young Bayhs, now there's a recipe for drama.

Absurd Alhazred
Mar 27, 2010

by Athanatos

TROIKA CURES GREEK posted:

Young Bayhs, now there's a recipe for drama.

:geno: We are Bayh.

Cliff Racer
Mar 24, 2007

by Lowtax

Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:

Which poll is this?

The only one I can find is the DSCC internal poll they released with Bayh up 54 - 33. Good numbers, but it is an internal campaign one, so take with some caution.

poo poo yeah, it was that one, I hosed up Young's numbers.

Riptor
Apr 13, 2003

here's to feelin' good all the time

Joementum posted:

"Lifelong Vermonter, Hold on I was Born in Brooklyn"

whens that ever been an issue in VT though

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

Riptor posted:

whens that ever been an issue in VT though

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=cecMgqCNrBY&t=40s

mandatory lesbian
Dec 18, 2012

Joementum posted:

Fundraising report for VT Senate race came out today.

Pat "I am the Batman" Leahy (D) - $3,000,000+
Scott "Lifelong Vermonter, Hold on I was Born in Brooklyn" Milne (R) - $83

Though George Aiken did win his last race with $13.

so like, does it occur to anyone that maybe that money could go, well, anywhere else

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
Looks like the stage had a lot of uh characters. What's the Vermont version of the rent-is-too-drat-high guy.

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ

pangstrom posted:

Looks like the stage had a lot of uh characters. What's the Vermont version of the rent-is-too-drat-high guy.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=l4VJQzhBr28

pangstrom
Jan 25, 2003

Wedge Regret
The Vermont spry-all-say-buh-bye party.

The X-man cometh
Nov 1, 2009
Was the candidate from "You cahnt get theah from heah" party on stage or did he get lost on the way?

Joementum
May 23, 2004

jesus christ
Got the third piece of campaign lit in the mail today from a Democrat promising to enact Bernie's agenda at the state level. Not surprising, since I'm in Vermont. Anyone seeing that in other states?

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Karl Barks
Jan 21, 1981

Joementum posted:

Got the third piece of campaign lit in the mail today from a Democrat promising to enact Bernie's agenda at the state level. Not surprising, since I'm in Vermont. Anyone seeing that in other states?

Yeah, there are a few candidates like that around Boston, Leland Cheung for one

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