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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Why would May bother calling a snap GE? It would only add a year onto the Tory's reign, and the only thing it heads off is pretty mild criticism that she's unelected by the people. The Tories have a paper thin majority that she could increase by taking advantage of the Labour factionalism. July 25, 1603. James VI of Scotland becomes James I of England, uniting Great Britain in a personal union. GEORGE W BUSHI fucked around with this message at 10:47 on Jul 25, 2016 |
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Jul 25, 2016 05:11
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Why would May bother calling a snap GE? It would only add a year onto the Tory's reign, and the only thing it heads off is pretty mild criticism that she's unelected by the people. The current working Government majority is only 16 seats. While this is juuuust comfortable enough that May doesn't necessarily need to call a snap GE at any point, it does make her and her Cabinet's position more difficult - with Brexit taking place over the next few years, the Tory leadership are going to have to appease and satisfy the most rabidly Eurosceptic backbenchers far more than Cameron ever had to, as he could always rely on the previous tactic of reassuringly spouting hot piggy air about a future referendum. That referendum has been and gone, and the May Cabinet is going to have some serious headaches if it has to constantly balance both limiting the catastrophes of Brexit and keeping the crazier end of the Conservative party happy, all whilst attempting to pass the usual bills and laws. You can't three-line whip every motion, it's just not the done thing, and as such May runs the risk of having the hard-right elements of the party hold parliamentary support to ransom if Brexit doesn't appear to be satisfying their desires. The easiest way for her to avoid this is to call a snap GE at some point soon, increase the Tory mandate, and therefore give May/the Cabinet more breathing room when it comes to Commons support.
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Jul 25, 2016 05:25
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Tariq Ali with a very leftist view on Brexit and the state of the EU, reasons for the decision (which I don't fully agree with), the youth vote and other things: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FCjQhK9OfL4
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Jul 25, 2016 06:01
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blowfish posted:They (together with excessive safety obsession) also make it hard for The ChildrenTM (who we must think of) to get a chemistry set that's actually fun to play with yourself, and I'm willing to bet this is bad for science education and popularisation. Guavanaut posted:I think the worst thing for that was the near elimination of chemicals as a commodity from everyday life. "And we can't even throw ourselves into threshing machines any more, in case it offends a Muslim" What both of you are talking about has literally nothing to do with these regs. Commoditisation is a thing that's been happening since the 1920s and removing the more... exciting chemicals from chemistry sets (and bullshit "chemical-free" pseudoscience) since the 1970s. Even so I still have a white bottle simply marked "Hydrochloric acid - 20%" in my shed, you can buy it from like any DIY or catering supply store.
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Jul 25, 2016 06:04
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StoneOfShame posted:I've been wondering about this today and I can't think of one but is there any constitutional reason why Theresa May can't call a general election in the middle of Labour's leadership implosion because the massive win should would get makes it seem like it would be a smart move to me. Or is it a silly British it just wouldn't be cricket thing stopping her? The Tories calling votes they're sure they'll win has never backfired before.
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Jul 25, 2016 07:14
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Adam Vegas posted:
Why does this snap election not become overwhelmingly dominated by Brexit and Article 50 and UKIP yelling "no more delay, article 50 now!" as loud as possible every minute of the day? It would be the most utterly unpredictable election ever.
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Jul 25, 2016 07:21
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Relying solely on a phone as a card replacement strikes me as a bad idea because 1) your phone can run out of battery and then you're screwed and 2) if you drop or lose your phone you now have no money and no communications either Welp those are my musings on the future of money
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Jul 25, 2016 07:26
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Kokoro Wish posted:Tariq Ali with a very leftist view on Brexit and the state of the EU, reasons for the decision (which I don't fully agree with), the youth vote and other things: Very good video and message. Esp on the idealization of the EU by some.
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Jul 25, 2016 07:32
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I'd say it would be a huge tactical mistake, obviously we're both pretty different countries, but this exact gambit was just tried here and literally no one thought Shorten could even put a dent in the Liberals, he was an empty suit from the right faction. The Libs went from a very comfortable 30 seat majority to (what looks like it will be) a 1 seat majority with a much more hostile senate, because Shorten put out policies aiming to reduce income inequality and rein in house prices. It's a big risk for very little reward. Fingers crossed they try it.
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Jul 25, 2016 07:53
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A snap election would also allow Corbyn to fix Labour, a fair few MP's would get deselected and what he's left with would rally around him. If the Conservatives want the Labour civil war to drag on, making it last 4 years would give them the best chance at the split they no doubt fantasize over.
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Jul 25, 2016 07:55
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Blasmeister posted:Trying to paint Corbyn as a secret tory is the weirdest angle of attack I can think of. I guess they think trying to attack from the left is the only chance they have of impacting Corbyn's supporter base, or they didn't really think it through. I think the intention is less "Corbyn is a closet Tory" and more "Corbyn is a divisive figure who often acts against the interests of the labour party and in doing so helps the Tories." While it's a crap poster and there's a relatively easy, if less self-evident riposte - he prioritises national interest over party interest - it's in sync with the "labour needs a unifying leader" narrative.
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Jul 25, 2016 08:10
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More importantly: to call a GE requires revoking the FTPA or a vote of no confidence, and there is only one week of parliamentary business before the leadership election is over, due to the summer and conference recesses. Revoking needs to go through the Lords, so can't happen in a week, and calling no confidence on your own government for the sake of a early GE looks really weird and takes two weeks from the vote to fire anyways. So: she can't actually call one until after party conference season even if she tried thanks to FTPA.
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Jul 25, 2016 08:32
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Zephro posted:Relying solely on a phone as a card replacement strikes me as a bad idea because 1) your phone can run out of battery and then you're screwed and 2) if you drop or lose your phone you now have no money and no communications either Sure but when our phones are implanted into our hands those problems will go away.
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Jul 25, 2016 08:33
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sebzilla posted:Sure but when our phones are implanted into our hands those problems will go away. Battery-powered hacksaws are cheap and easily obtained.
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Jul 25, 2016 08:40
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Fans posted:A snap election would also allow Corbyn to fix Labour, a fair few MP's would get deselected and what he's left with would rally around him. I'm not clear on the Labour de/reselection process but does it depend upon a general election to be called for it to happen?
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Jul 25, 2016 08:58
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WhiskeyWhiskers posted:Why would May bother calling a snap GE? It would only add a year onto the Tory's reign, and the only thing it heads off is pretty mild criticism that she's unelected by the people. I can see you're new to British politics.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:01
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Pissflaps posted:I'm not clear on the Labour de/reselection process but does it depend upon a general election to be called for it to happen? Yes, either that or boundary changes.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:24
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Pissflaps posted:I'm not clear on the Labour de/reselection process but does it depend upon a general election to be called for it to happen? Yes. Labour can withdraw the whip from MPs but they can't force an MP to stand down. They'd still be an MP, albeit an independent one likely to lose their seat at the next election unless they're very popular locally. nothing to seehere posted:Yes, either that or boundary changes. The boundary changes wouldn't come into effect until there's another election anyway. They do provide an easier way for deselections to take place without appearing targeted as seats get merged. GEORGE W BUSHI fucked around with this message at 09:27 on Jul 25, 2016 |
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Jul 25, 2016 09:24
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Adam Vegas posted:The current working Government majority is only 16 seats. While this is juuuust comfortable enough that May doesn't necessarily need to call a snap GE at any point, it does make her and her Cabinet's position more difficult - with Brexit taking place over the next few years, the Tory leadership are going to have to appease and satisfy the most rabidly Eurosceptic backbenchers far more than Cameron ever had to, as he could always rely on the previous tactic of reassuringly spouting hot piggy air about a future referendum. Yeah. I hate to say it, but the only way we're going to get a sane and reasonable exit from the EU that doesn't utterly gently caress the country is if the Tories win a snap GE with a large majority. This will kill Corbyn and the chance of a Labour left of course, but it's a choice between slow decay or a bullet to the head.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:27
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Pissflaps posted:I'm not clear on the Labour de/reselection process but does it depend upon a general election to be called for it to happen? Yes and no. The selection process is just deciding who the candidate will be for the next election, whether it's a general or not. Talk of de- and re-selection is a bit of a misnomer, it's just selection. Obviously for most parties and most seats the incumbent gets nodded through but on boundary changes there has to be a selection process of some sort because the constituency itself disappears, Ordinarily the incumbent of the old constituency is nodded through but Corbyn's supporters have raised the spectre of going to a full selection process for every seat that changes - and that's going to be every bloody seat. So yeah you need a GE for a mass reselection campaign to have any actual effect, which raises the possibility that after 2020 the Blairites will all have been  but Corbyn himself will also be out. All of this feels like it's much more fun when seen from a safe distance, say, the Moon.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:43
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Jedit posted:Yeah. I hate to say it, but the only way we're going to get a sane and reasonable exit from the EU that doesn't utterly gently caress the country is if the Tories win a snap GE with a large majority. This will kill Corbyn and the chance of a Labour left of course, but it's a choice between slow decay or a bullet to the head. But as multiple people have pointed out, look what happened last time a Tory leader called a vote that was supposed to shut the Awkward Squad up.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:47
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TomViolence posted:The ID card proposals were at the height of Blairite surveillance-mania during the so-called war on terror. I don't really know what the situation is in Germany with regards to the creeping security state, but from 2001-2010 the UK had the kind of authoritarian crypto-racist government that was more than willing to ship its own citizens off to Guantanamo on the basis of religion and/or skin colour without charge or possibility of appeal. People were right to oppose it at the time and since our current government doesn't seem any less psychopathic they would be right to oppose them now too. Current government has nothing to do with it. Even if the current lot were alright, who knows what we'll have in 10 years' time? I don't want Prime Minister Farage having my or more importantly my wife's personal details easily to hand, ta.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:51
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goddamnedtwisto posted:But as multiple people have pointed out, look what happened last time a Tory leader called a vote that was supposed to shut the Awkward Squad up. Yeah, it's not like a GE under the current political climate is likely to produce a surge of new semi-europhile Tory MP:s that would let May negotiate a Brexit agreement without worrying about the hard right stabbing her in the back.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:56
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feedmegin posted:Current government has nothing to do with it. Even if the current lot were alright, who knows what we'll have in 10 years' time? I don't want Prime Minister Farage having my or more importantly my wife's personal details easily to hand, ta. Um... you do know the government actually holds all the data that would have been in the national ID database already, don't you? It was never the existence of the ID database that was the problem (at least not for people who were paying attention).
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Jul 25, 2016 09:58
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goddamnedtwisto posted:Um... you do know the government actually holds all the data that would have been in the national ID database already, don't you? It was never the existence of the ID database that was the problem (at least not for people who were paying attention). Not conveniently stored together all in one place, though.
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Jul 25, 2016 09:59
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Calling a GE now might actually be a disaster in the making for the Tories given that UKIP may be lacking Big Nige but have all the right credentials to say "this is where we should have the right to be in the negotiations" to the general electorate. Comically enough I bet if Labour didn't stand in strong UKIP vote areas (NB: I do not believe for a picosecond this would happen, this is purely conjecture) they could quite easily decimate the Tory vote with UKIP swings.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:03
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Tesseraction posted:Comically enough I bet if Labour didn't stand in strong UKIP vote areas (NB: I do not believe for a picosecond this would happen, this is purely conjecture) they could quite easily decimate the Tory vote with UKIP swings. I don't think this would be an 'easy' strategy for electoral success. Abandoning the North to UKIP would leave Labour with little more than North London.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:06
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feedmegin posted:Current government has nothing to do with it. Even if the current lot were alright, who knows what we'll have in 10 years' time? I don't want Prime Minister Farage having my or more importantly my wife's personal details easily to hand, ta.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:08
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feedmegin posted:Not conveniently stored together all in one place, though. Yeah, they do, and have done since the 80s. Computers are a thing, you know.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:13
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What was so different about ID cards that the DVLA or passport office won't have on most people?
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Jul 25, 2016 10:17
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Pissflaps posted:I don't think this would be an 'easy' strategy for electoral success. *QI honking noise* That's not what I said, I said it would easily decimate the Tory vote, not that it would lead to Labour success. In fact, the reason I put the bit in brackets is because I know full well it wouldn't lead to electoral success for the Labour Party since even if they did perform this strategy against the will of their MPs who would be hosed over, it wouldn't gain them MPs and kippers are unlikely to confidence and supply a left-wing Labour government. It was purely, as specified, conjecture. 0/10 please do better next time.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:20
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Tesseraction posted:*QI honking noise* I'm not sure what the point of developing a strategy to improve your standing against a political opponent in an election would be if not to result in electoral success. Regardless, it would be foolish for Labour to abandon their traditional heartlands in the North to UKIP, especially with Scotland currently a write-off. I doubt anybody will take your suggestion that they do seriously.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:24
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If Labour should be pulling out anywhere, it's in Liberal/Conservative swing seats, not Labour/UKIP swing seats, that's crazy.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:30
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Jedit posted:Yeah. I hate to say it, but the only way we're going to get a sane and reasonable exit from the EU that doesn't utterly gently caress the country is if the Tories win a snap GE with a large majority. This will kill Corbyn and the chance of a Labour left of course, but it's a choice between slow decay or a bullet to the head. Or am I missing something?
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Jul 25, 2016 10:31
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Pissflaps posted:I doubt anybody will take your suggestion that they do seriously. Tesseraction posted:this is purely conjecture Tesseraction posted:It was purely, as specified, conjecture. Stop being stupid, pissflaps.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:33
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Lord of the Llamas posted:What was so different about ID cards that the DVLA or passport office won't have on most people? There's also two ways of looking at it: "There's not much different about ID cards than the DVLA or passport office so we shouldn't worry too much about them." and "There's not much different about ID cards than the DVLA or passport office so we should take them to task about the increasing amount of data they hold on people." Same goes with: goddamnedtwisto posted:Um... you do know the government actually holds all the data that would have been in the national ID database already, don't you? It was never the existence of the ID database that was the problem (at least not for people who were paying attention).
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Jul 25, 2016 10:33
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Baron Corbyn posted:If Labour should be pulling out anywhere, it's in Liberal/Conservative swing seats, not Labour/UKIP swing seats, that's crazy. UKIP poll well in Tory seats. It's places like Thanet South where kipper votes are strong, not liberal/progressive heartlands.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:34
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Zephro posted:I'm not sure I buy this line of reasoning. May can rely on Lib Dem and Labour votes to pass a some-version-of-EEA act if she has to and if the alternative is a hard Brexit. So the Tory rebels can fume all they like and maybe even derail a few bills if the other parties don't feel like bailing May out. But their ultimate threat - to derail the Brexit process in parliament - seems like it's 100% empty.
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Jul 25, 2016 10:35
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Zephro posted:I'm not sure I buy this line of reasoning. May can rely on Lib Dem and Labour votes to pass a some-version-of-EEA act if she has to and if the alternative is a hard Brexit. So the Tory rebels can fume all they like and maybe even derail a few bills if the other parties don't feel like bailing May out. But their ultimate threat - to derail the Brexit process in parliament - seems like it's 100% empty. I think the worry for May is that the rebels might try and derail any legislation she tries to pass until they get Brexit on their terms, which would include legislation that Labour/SNP/LD would be happy to block. Tesseraction posted:UKIP poll well in Tory seats. It's places like Thanet South where kipper votes are strong, not liberal/progressive heartlands. They also finished a strong second to Labour in a lot of Northern seats and are growing in strength in South Wales. Letting UKIP have a clean run at the Tories in places like Essex might help to weaken May, but it would bolster the Tory right wing who could rely on UKIP votes to help them get their way. GEORGE W BUSHI fucked around with this message at 10:39 on Jul 25, 2016 |
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Jul 25, 2016 10:35
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Tesseraction posted:UKIP poll well in Tory seats. It's places like Thanet South where kipper votes are strong, not liberal/progressive heartlands. UKIP are also performing well in many traditionally safe Labour seats. That's why your suggestion that Labour don't contest these seats at the next election is foolish and not one to be taken seriously. (USER WAS PUT ON PROBATION FOR THIS POST)
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Jul 25, 2016 10:37
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