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If you want to jump on markets right as they snap you have to be obsessive about it to the point where it's all you do. Also any news feed is going to be too slow- generally you want to find the twitter accounts of embedded reporters and watch them for scoops. They're almost always the ones to drop things first. Vox did it for a while and he really didn't enjoy it.
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Jul 25, 2016 03:15
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So, now you can buy YES shares on DWS winning her primary for like 70 cents. People don't actually understand how carefully drawn congressional districts work.
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Jul 25, 2016 03:26
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Gyges posted:So, now you can buy YES shares on DWS winning her primary for like 70 cents. People don't actually understand how carefully drawn congressional districts work. I get why the district itself might be same for Dems, but i don't get why a scandal wouldn't cause her to lose the primary.
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Jul 25, 2016 03:50
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EngineerSean posted:I get why the district itself might be same for Dems, but i don't get why a scandal wouldn't cause her to lose the primary. Her primary opponent is well funded and backed by Bernie personally. So she'll probably only win the nomination by 20-30 points instead of 60+
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Jul 25, 2016 04:10
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EngineerSean posted:I get why the district itself might be same for Dems, but i don't get why a scandal wouldn't cause her to lose the primary. It's not a scandal that her district could possibly care about. They voted for Hillary by somewhere around 50 percentage points more than Bernie and she's their long term incumbent congresswoman.
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Jul 25, 2016 04:24
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Gyges posted:It's not a scandal that her district could possibly care about. They voted for Hillary by somewhere around 50 percentage points more than Bernie and she's their long term incumbent congresswoman. Yeah I guess I get this but I didn't realize the carefully drawn Congressional district was designed to be as pro-Hillary as possible.
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Jul 25, 2016 06:19
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TRUMPCLINTON.072716 B5 was up to .90 at least half an hour before RCP updated (CNN/ORC Trump +3 and Trump +5 (head to head and four-way)). I was checking twitter while it was surging and couldn't find anything concrete; are sources out there, or is it generally assumed that insiders take the easy money before the rest of us know? Made a quick $80 on it just from yesterday till today, so I'm happy regardless (while losing $15 on B4). Nosre has issued a correction as of 12:35 on Jul 25, 2016 |
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Jul 25, 2016 11:31
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EngineerSean posted:Yeah I guess I get this but I didn't realize the carefully drawn Congressional district was designed to be as pro-Hillary as possible. It's not drawn to be pro-Hillary. It's drawn to include a bunch of Democrats that almost all happen to be pro-Hillary.
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Jul 25, 2016 16:28
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Nosre posted:TRUMPCLINTON.072716 B5 was up to .90 at least half an hour before RCP updated (CNN/ORC Trump +3 and Trump +5 (head to head and four-way)). I was checking twitter while it was surging and couldn't find anything concrete; are sources out there, or is it generally assumed that insiders take the easy money before the rest of us know? RCP is always a lagging indicator in the polling markets (even though it is the basis for deciding the market). The hardcore polling market people check the personal Twitter accounts of people associated with pollsters and ask them when new info is breaking. They almost always know about a poll before it's on RCP, and often find numbers well before official publication.
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Jul 25, 2016 16:31
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Vox Nihili posted:RCP is always a lagging indicator in the polling markets (even though it is the basis for deciding the market). The hardcore polling market people check the personal Twitter accounts of people associated with pollsters and ask them when new info is breaking. They almost always know about a poll before it's on RCP, and often find numbers well before official publication. Yeah this is the reason we generally talk about not betting on polling markets. PI as a whole has some terrible/pumping people in the comments. But the polling markets in particular have a special brand that know the usual polling releases like the back of their hand, spreadsheet out the possible polls, know the twitters of several reporters that have access to polls, and so on. That's not to say surprises can't and don't come up... also don't bet on polls because you're relying on the ever shifty RCP Intern (that may or may not exist) to not/to drop polls at the best/worst time
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Jul 25, 2016 18:36
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Not to mention that one extreme outlier can gently caress up a bracket. Most of the bigger poll outfits are more or less on a predictable sched, but every so often you'll be cruising to a close and BAM, 5 point outlier Monmouth. It's a heady game, but definitely not w/o risks.
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Jul 25, 2016 19:28
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Thanks for the explanations. I told myself I wasn't betting the polls, but the overall trendline--worked out in this case. It's nice that predictit is still slow enough that you can do things like get out of a lost position at 40 by just keeping a lazy eye on it at work. Also, https://www.predictit.org/Market/2328/What-will-Johnson%27s-monthly-fundraising-be-for-July is up!
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Jul 25, 2016 20:48
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https://twitter.com/CLewandowski_/status/757683352979767296
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Jul 25, 2016 22:07
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FourLeaf posted:How long did you have your money wrapped up in those markets? That's my only worry about stuff like that. IIRC I could have tripled my money in twelve hours. I held out for a better price. Checking my history, I bought @ 24¢ on the fifth, sold for 86¢ on the sixteenth.
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Jul 25, 2016 22:34
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Fucker is getting click-through money.
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Jul 25, 2016 23:21
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For the life of me, I can't figure out why "Will the Democratic nominee mention Black Lives Matter in acceptance speech?" is currently only 63¢ for Yes.
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Jul 26, 2016 00:04
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Technogeek posted:For the life of me, I can't figure out why "Will the Democratic nominee mention Black Lives Matter in acceptance speech?" is currently only 63¢ for Yes. because I follow the "bet no on everything" strategy
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Jul 26, 2016 00:09
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The fact that Obama gave that poignant statement about it and the black vote is so crucial for Clinton edges it towards yes tho so so seems like pretty accurate pricing.
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Jul 26, 2016 00:11
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Technogeek posted:For the life of me, I can't figure out why "Will the Democratic nominee mention Black Lives Matter in acceptance speech?" is currently only 63¢ for Yes. Have Bernie or other speakers mentioned BLM by name in their speeches? The Party Platform does not, but it is a bit more formal than most of the speakers.
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Jul 26, 2016 03:05
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W WE[TWAa[Uwarzw axexrrzyiad.=
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Jul 26, 2016 03:11
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Technogeek posted:For the life of me, I can't figure out why "Will the Democratic nominee mention Black Lives Matter in acceptance speech?" is currently only 63¢ for Yes. Why do you think she is 63% likely to mention Black Lives Matter in her acceptance speech?
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Jul 26, 2016 05:52
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Arkane posted:Why do you think she is 63% likely to mention Black Lives Matter in her acceptance speech? Yeah, I hate the speech topic markets. It's naked gambling. Will she mention BLM? Sure. Will she do it during the acceptance speech, using that exact term? Cast the bones and find your answer! Islam is probably a bit safer, just to draw the parallel between Trump's blanket ban and the terms are a bit more permissive.
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Jul 26, 2016 05:55
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OAquinas posted:Yeah, I hate the speech topic markets. It's naked gambling. Will she mention BLM? Sure. Will she do it during the acceptance speech, using that exact term? Cast the bones and find your answer! Problem with "Islam" (lol) is that it's the more dehumanizing term. Hillary will probably talk about Muslims (the people) to emphasize the humans that will suffer under Trump's policies. She might also mention Islam... or she might not!
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Jul 26, 2016 06:05
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Speels posted:W WE[TWAa[Uwarzw Agreed. Welcome to PredictIt
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Jul 26, 2016 06:06
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Vox Nihili posted:Problem with "Islam" (lol) is that it's the more dehumanizing term. Hillary will probably talk about Muslims (the people) to emphasize the humans that will suffer under Trump's policies. She might also mention Islam... or she might not! Yep. Hence, "more safe" and not "Actually safe" If you want "actually safe" positions, just bet against libertarians. Literally the only reason I'm still in the black.
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Jul 26, 2016 06:10
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thethreeman posted:betting against Johnson - in fundraising, polling, appearing in a debate, etc - has been by far my most consistently lucrative strategy on this site Now that July fundraising is up, I'm again going all in on Johnson >$1M NO, because it's in the 40s... I can't exactly say why one would even expect July to be higher than June ($664K as a reminder), considering he got the nomination at the end of May, and June was when Trump started imploding, June was before the conventions, etc - but maybe I'm missing something? Apparently he had a special fundraising campaign going with a counter that got up to ~$200K in a week, but that definitely doesn't lead me towards >$1M  , and a Drew Carey fundraiser is supposed to put him over the top?this strategy will stop working eventually OAquinas posted:Yep. Hence, "more safe" and not "Actually safe" 
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Jul 26, 2016 06:23
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EngineerSean posted:Can't believe how easy this week's TvC poll was to call, next week will be even easier to call I actually sold all my B3, B4, and B5 right after I took this screenshot. Of course B3.NO is a lock now but I did not predict that the polls would swing so far, and I actually came out ahead because I was B4 heavy. I only caught the beginning of the DNC speeches tonight but I think we can expect an opposite move next week and the week after, I'll be snatching up B1.YES (whatever it is set at) at as low a price as I can get.
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Jul 26, 2016 08:18
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Who will be Democratic National Committee chair in 2017? this one is gonna be fun
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Jul 26, 2016 18:21
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Gyges posted:It's not drawn to be pro-Hillary. It's drawn to include a bunch of Democrats that almost all happen to be pro-Hillary. More specifically it's very rich. Good catch on that market, I'm buying some Yes. Been out of PI for a while but came crawling back like a degenerate. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 19:05 on Jul 26, 2016 |
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Jul 26, 2016 18:56
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Peachstapler posted:Fucker is getting click-through money. I'm confused. PI does advertising, though it's run by a university?
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Jul 26, 2016 21:04
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Shear Modulus posted:More specifically it's very rich. I dunno, doesn't seem that old, at least for Florida. I think the key demographic for Cinton-ites is old people. https://www.biggestuscities.com/demographics/fl/23rd-congressional-district
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Jul 26, 2016 21:06
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Baddog posted:I dunno, doesn't seem that old, at least for Florida. I think the key demographic for Cinton-ites is old people. Yeah, she has Weston (rich), hollywood (not so much) Davie/pembroke pines (middle class suburb) and the beachfronts (rich+++). If you could picture "establishment" as a district, that's it.
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Jul 26, 2016 21:37
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The Stein fundraising market is insane right now. I'm not sure if the comments are pumping or legitimate research, but the bottom four brackets have been cleared out to 0-1c at the moment. I have holdings in each one at 3c and lower. The top tier bracket is also being pushed way upward, it's been over 90c for the past few hours. https://www.predictit.org/Market/2325/What-will-Stein%27s-monthly-fundraising-be-for-July edit: 1) fixed bbcode url parsing 2) Hot tip: there's like 32k shares of DNOM Bernie NO at 98c for the taking! Lutha Mahtin has issued a correction as of 23:00 on Jul 26, 2016 |
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Jul 26, 2016 22:08
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Lutha Mahtin posted:The Stein fundraising market is insane right now. I'm not sure if the comments are pumping or legitimate research, but the bottom four brackets have been cleared out to 0-1c at the moment. I have holdings in each one at 3c and lower. The top tier bracket is also being pushed way upward, it's been over 90c for the past few hours. I bought a bunch of cheap no's on the top bracket just in case.
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Jul 27, 2016 01:47
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Michael Scott posted:I'm confused. PI does advertising, though it's run by a university? It's run by Aristotle in coordination with a university for research.
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Jul 27, 2016 01:49
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Lutha Mahtin posted:The Stein fundraising market is insane right now. I'm not sure if the comments are pumping or legitimate research, but the bottom four brackets have been cleared out to 0-1c at the moment. I have holdings in each one at 3c and lower. The top tier bracket is also being pushed way upward, it's been over 90c for the past few hours. Stein herself claims to have raised $1m in ten days. I'm not betting against that.
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Jul 27, 2016 02:11
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Vox Nihili posted:Stein herself claims to have raised $1m in ten days. I'm not betting against that. Yeah. There are reports she had a huge (relative) surge in donations after Sanders endorsed Clinton.
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Jul 27, 2016 02:18
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There's a new podcast about PredictIt called "Election Profit Makers": http://www.electionprofitmakers.com/ Hosted by David Rees of "Get Your War On" fame, and some other guy.
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Jul 27, 2016 02:43
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C7ty1 posted:Yeah. There are reports she had a huge (relative) surge in donations after Sanders endorsed Clinton. She'll get to tap into the dumb internet money that is no longer donating to Bernie Sanders. There will probably be some big surges this month and maybe next month as well.
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Jul 27, 2016 05:52
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Thoughts on DEMCONVENTION.DAILYVIEWERS Monday vs. today? You'd think Obama/Biden tonight would be a slam dunk, but Monday apparently came in at 26 million. Pretty good.
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Jul 27, 2016 09:39
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