PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > C-SPAM > PredictIt: One in the hand > two in the Bush, who's a mess- by the way

«‹›354 »

Arkane: Dec 19, 2006; by R. Guyovich

anotherone posted:

There's a new podcast about PredictIt called "Election Profit Makers":

http://www.electionprofitmakers.com/

Hosted by David Rees of "Get Your War On" fame, and some other guy.

Dead link for me, episode 0 is here.

https://twitter.com/david_rees/status/755394284120137729

episode 1 here: https://soundcloud.com/electionprofitmakers/election-profit-makers-episode-1-acknowledge-lucifer

The one dude Kimball is pretty sharp in terms of betting --- and is also a polling market addict. Rees not really my cup of tea in terms of humor, also a total donk when it comes to betting.

Arkane has issued a correction as of 13:31 on Jul 27, 2016

# ? Jul 27, 2016 13:28

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 29, 2024 20:49

Social Studies 3rd Period: Oct 31, 2012; THUNDERDOME LOSER

well, hope anyone with Johnson B1 NO got out before the crash!

# ? Jul 27, 2016 21:43

thethreeman: May 10, 2008; Fallen Rib

C7ty1 posted:

well, hope anyone with Johnson B1 NO got out before the crash!

thethreeman posted:

Now that July fundraising is up, I'm again going all in on Johnson >$1M NO, because it's in the 40s...

I can't exactly say why one would even expect July to be higher than June ($664K as a reminder), considering he got the nomination at the end of May, and June was when Trump started imploding, June was before the conventions, etc - but maybe I'm missing something? Apparently he had a special fundraising campaign going with a counter that got up to ~$200K in a week, but that definitely doesn't lead me towards >$1M , and a Drew Carey fundraiser is supposed to put him over the top?

this strategy will stop working eventually

My GL was a disaster for a while. Luckily managed to sell at 35c when it spiked back up

I'll be leaving some open offers below 10c. That "we've raised $5M" quote could mean a lot of different things, even if it makes B1 pretty likely

# ? Jul 27, 2016 23:44

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Yeah, didn't get into the fundraising market this time since I was feeding the polling market. Plus with the s4p meltdown it added too much uncertainty to the mix.

# ? Jul 27, 2016 23:55

Lutha Mahtin: Oct 10, 2010; Your brokebrain sin is absolved...go and shitpost no more!

I haven't looked up any recent Johnson news, but I know that there was at least one time when some of his crew put out a press release hyping the bucks they'd raised, and it was for a campaign committee other than the one that actually counts for PI.

# ? Jul 28, 2016 01:30

Hufflepuff or bust!: Jan 28, 2005; I should have known better.

Does anyone have a promo code I can use to sign up?

# ? Jul 28, 2016 02:16

Platystemon: Feb 13, 2012; BREADS

Lutha Mahtin posted:

I haven't looked up any recent Johnson news, but I know that there was at least one time when some of his crew put out a press release hyping the bucks they'd raised, and it was for a campaign committee other than the one that actually counts for PI.

Yeah, I was going to say: are we so sure he�s not counting funds raised for PACs or the Libertarian Party itself?

# ? Jul 28, 2016 02:20

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

kaishek posted:

Does anyone have a promo code I can use to sign up?

It used to be if you tweeted at them they'd give you a promo code to sign up but idk if that's still active

# ? Jul 28, 2016 03:03

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

C7ty1 posted:

well, hope anyone with Johnson B1 NO got out before the crash!

gently caress me for being productive at work today.

Now I remember why I quit Predictit earlier.

Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 04:03 on Jul 28, 2016

# ? Jul 28, 2016 04:01

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

I've been losing a ton of money since work has picked up. It's awful!

Probably going to dump my remaining viewership shares at a loss as well; I was bearish on the event at the start, but the reality is that Clinton is now looking likely to match Trump's performance.

# ? Jul 28, 2016 06:40

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Vox Nihili posted:

I've been losing a ton of money since work has picked up. It's awful!

Probably going to dump my remaining viewership shares at a loss as well; I was bearish on the event at the start, but the reality is that Clinton is now looking likely to match Trump's performance.

Ouch. I just figured kickass lineup as a prelude to the speech + first woman candidate (that will actually win an EV) was worth Trump+, especially since the Trump ratings were a bit lackluster compared to 2012. Dumped a ton into B5 NO and it'll be a nice 40% payday on friday.

# ? Jul 28, 2016 15:28

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

EngineerSean posted:

I actually sold all my B3, B4, and B5 right after I took this screenshot. Of course B3.NO is a lock now but I did not predict that the polls would swing so far, and I actually came out ahead because I was B4 heavy. I only caught the beginning of the DNC speeches tonight but I think we can expect an opposite move next week and the week after, I'll be snatching up B1.YES (whatever it is set at) at as low a price as I can get.

I'm quoting myself again but I'm basically sitting this week out since I was unable to get cheap "Clinton ahead" shares (which ended up being B5 this week instead of B1).

edit: I got 100 B2s as a lottery ticket, 6c is a pretty good price imo.

# ? Jul 28, 2016 15:51

Laphroaig: Feb 6, 2004; Drinking Smoke; Dinosaur Gum

so a long-term discussion:

Every time I see these polls saying Hillary is going to take PA, like the Suffolk that came out today, I think how they are off. A lot of blue-collar union, solidly-democratic voters, who always vote democrat in local elections, are saying they are voting Trump in the national. I am hearing this up and down the line, in so many parts of the city, both in person and in news stories that keep surfacing like this one: http://www.philly.com/philly/news/politics/dnc/20160728_What_DNC__These_S__Philly_voters_are_all_about_Trump.html . Center City and the more educated (and more liberal) areas around Fairmount/University City are solidly Hillary, but they don't represent a ton of votes; those votes have to come from somewhere, and the City is 45% white, 44% black, and 7% asian. Traditionally, to take the State of PA, the Democratic candidate has to come out of Philly and Pittsburgh with plus one million votes.

So: if AFSCME/SEIU/local ground game doesn't really push people to the polls this year, Hillary is going to have trouble in Philadelphia. A lot of traditionally democratic voters just don't like her. The democratic city machine is behind her, but the cogs in that machine - a lot of them are voting Trump. The party (democratic party, Philly is a 1 party town with no republicans to speak of) is going to mobilize people to do voter pickups and drops off with cash, as per normal, but they still need the votes. I don't know if they have the million votes they need; a lot of people wanted Bernie and are having trouble moving to Hillary, at least in Philadelphia specifically. I presume the situation is mirrored in Pittsburgh.

So, as I see it:

Hillary is going to sweep Montgomery, Bucks, etc, and do better-than-average among Democratic and Republican women across the state.

Hillary is going to worse than expected in Philadelphia and Pittsburgh. PA is very much in play.

# ? Jul 28, 2016 18:31

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

Laphroaig posted:

So: if AFSCME/SEIU/local ground game doesn't really push people to the polls this year,

You understand what you're saying here, right?

# ? Jul 29, 2016 00:57

Laphroaig: Feb 6, 2004; Drinking Smoke; Dinosaur Gum

Necc0 posted:

You understand what you're saying here, right?

The various leadership has come out strongly for Hillary but the rank and file has not; aka the guys and gals who would actually be driving the vans on Election Day really really don't like her. This is a marked contrast to Obama, or even Kerry or Gore.

edit: Philly is a serious Democratic Machine town, I don't know how much you know about it, but a LOT is going to depend on how much the coffers open up in regard to street money.

Edit edit: and ummm street money is what you pay someone to work driving ppl around and it's like, you get your unemployed cousins to do it and they kick you back some. It's patronage but in its more direct cash form.

Laphroaig has issued a correction as of 01:09 on Jul 29, 2016

# ? Jul 29, 2016 01:05

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Laphroaig posted:

The various leadership has come out strongly for Hillary but the rank and file has not; aka the guys and gals who would actually be driving the vans on Election Day really really don't like her. This is a marked contrast to Obama, or even Kerry or Gore.

edit: Philly is a serious Democratic Machine town, I don't know how much you know about it, but a LOT is going to depend on how much the coffers open up in regard to street money.

Edit edit: and ummm street money is what you pay someone to work driving ppl around and it's like, you get your unemployed cousins to do it and they kick you back some. It's patronage but in its more direct cash form.

Yeah, something tells me out of everything that could be a problem for Clinton "lack of cash to grease the wheels" will not be counted in that set.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 02:06

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

Did they get rid of the funds display at the top of the page all the sudden, or is my browser just not loading it for some reason?

# ? Jul 29, 2016 02:20

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

Gyges posted:

Did they get rid of the funds display at the top of the page all the sudden, or is my browser just not loading it for some reason?

It's you. Still getting my +XXXX and available funds list.

Are you using a mobile browser? Might be it.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 02:43

Gyges: Aug 4, 2004; NOW NO ONE
RECOGNIZE HULK

OAquinas posted:

It's you. Still getting my +XXXX and available funds list.

Are you using a mobile browser? Might be it.

Firefox on my desktop. I won't have any free funds until they pay out on the Democratic Candidate anyway, so it's not a big deal at the moment.

Yeah, logging out and back in fixed it.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 02:46

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Gyges posted:

Firefox on my desktop. I won't have any free funds until they pay out on the Democratic Candidate anyway, so it's not a big deal at the moment.

Yeah, logging out and back in fixed it.

happened to me too.

Got some money on clinton ratings today, hope she beats trump tonight. I feel like thats an absolute lock, but maybe everyone is watching the stream or something.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 04:55

SHINEBLOCKA: Oct 17, 2009; I've got it in for your girlf

Made another killing betting NO on Trump U and Islam.

I'm thinking about tossing money into the DWS stepping down market because it seems like free money, but I once lost a poo poo-ton on Cruz in Alaska and since then I've been gunshy about buying into anything over .90

# ? Jul 29, 2016 05:27

OAquinas: Jan 27, 2008; Biden has sat immobile on the Iron Throne of America. He is the Master of Malarkey by the will of the gods, and master of a million votes by the might of his inexhaustible calamari.

SHINEBLOCKA posted:

Made another killing betting NO on Trump U and Islam.

I'm thinking about tossing money into the DWS stepping down market because it seems like free money, but I once lost a poo poo-ton on Cruz in Alaska and since then I've been gunshy about buying into anything over .90

It's done, she's buried and ousted.....but the lingering question is what PredictIt will accept. They may be waiting for the news tomorrow to confirm, or they could be the principal from Ferris Bueller and needing the DNC to purge every mention of her from all materials and scrape the name off the office--in which case YES wins.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 08:01

Vox Nihili: May 28, 2008

All three "will she mention..." markets resolved no. Should have kept to my usual strategy of no on all of em, it just works.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 09:03

Nosre: Apr 16, 2002

Trump U NO in particular seemed like a slam dunk, and indeed it was. Made back all I lost on not being able to get out of Johnson in time (I'll just let that B1 ride anyway I figure instead of salvaging my last :10bux:

, it wasn't a huge stake)

Anything interesting coming up aside from playing the Clinton convention bump? I was thinking of looking at the numbers in Obama approval and seeing how hard it'll be to get to 50+ (and then probably betting against) but I'm leaning towards staying away from those polls.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 13:22

Nosre: Apr 16, 2002

Also: DWS staying chair the next few days is spiking. Might be a hilarious finish. My lottery ticket buy at 4 never got filled, unfortunately

# ? Jul 29, 2016 14:11

Laphroaig: Feb 6, 2004; Drinking Smoke; Dinosaur Gum

OAquinas posted:

Yeah, something tells me out of everything that could be a problem for Clinton "lack of cash to grease the wheels" will not be counted in that set.

Thats the thing,

http://web.archive.org/web/20080502103154/http://www.philly.com/dailynews/top_story/20080415_Word_on_the_street__No_election__.html

Back in 08' -

quote:

DEMOCRATIC candidates and political celebrities Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton greeted the foot soldiers of Philadelphia's Democratic Party last night with praise and inspiration - but no money.
Neither campaign will be making traditional payments, known as "street money," to ward leaders willing to support them on election day, and some are unhappy about it.

People came out for Obama regardless, of course.

But this year, I've been sitting in a lot of general membership meetings, and my coworker and friend across from me is the Treasurer for my union - a lot of talk from the Clinton Campaign, about the importance of Philadelphia - but no mention of cash.

http://www.phillymag.com/news/2016/07/22/hillary-clinton-campaign-field-office-north/

But I have not heard a peep about the availability of funds from local ward leaders; just general assurances that the street money will be there, but they havn't gotten the checks themselves into the general coffers yet. Marlon Marshall was in the north Philadelphia office, and the Clinton Campaign is not made out of dummies, they know the importance of taking Philadelphia when it comes to winning PA, but I think they might drop the ball on this and concentrate on TV advertisement and the new "Obama Style" get out the vote volunteer stuff (aka free unpaid volunteers) too heavily when it comes to spending in Philadelphia.

To sum it up, if they fight in the 2016 Presidential like they did in the 2008, they are going to be in trouble.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 14:19

Necc0: Jun 30, 2005; by exmarx; Broken Cake

She just pulled out of CO entirely to focus on PA. Not saying you're wrong but we're still pretty early in the process

# ? Jul 29, 2016 14:47

Baddog: May 12, 2001

Necc0 posted:

She just pulled out of CO entirely to focus on PA. Not saying you're wrong but we're still pretty early in the process

Really? I dunno if CO is a lock really. As a state I think its much more anti-authoritarian than corporate neoliberal. I think turnout is gonna be way down and trump wins here.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 18:16

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

Baddog posted:

Really? I dunno if CO is a lock really. As a state I think its much more anti-authoritarian than corporate neoliberal. I think turnout is gonna be way down and trump wins here.

on the other hand, weed

edit: and yeah I know that doesn't go against anything you posted but I remember going to an Obama rally at CU and getting a big loving pamphlet with all the Democrats I should vote for, and those voices are only growing louder than the Colorado Springs people now that weed is legal.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 18:42

Baddog: May 12, 2001

EngineerSean posted:

on the other hand, weed

edit: and yeah I know that doesn't go against anything you posted but I remember going to an Obama rally at CU and getting a big loving pamphlet with all the Democrats I should vote for, and those voices are only growing louder than the Colorado Springs people now that weed is legal.

Everyone is very pissed about Bernie right now. Still quite few months, but I can see a lot of people staying home, or voting 3d party. And the republican turnout is always very high of course. Large parts of Denver are still very red, as well as the rest of the state outside of Boulder. Remember Udall just lost to loving Cory Gardner. Udall tried to make the whole election about the "war on women". Didn't get any women out to vote for him unfortunately.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 18:58

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

I don't know any rabid bernie supporters in real life, I'm the only one of my friends stuck in college.

E: basically what in saying is that i think professional pollsters know my state better than i do but even my gut tells me that they're right.

EngineerSean has issued a correction as of 19:55 on Jul 29, 2016

# ? Jul 29, 2016 19:51

Shear Modulus: Jun 9, 2010

I think the idea that Bernie voters won't vote for Clinton in swing states is being blown out of proportion because it's like the only way to paint the race as competitive.

What's Trump's stance on weed anyway? Does he have one?

# ? Jul 29, 2016 20:00

thethreeman: May 10, 2008; Fallen Rib

It's a long-term bet, but NC just got a little more interesting for Hillary, and prices haven't changed since this morning (Dem YES have gone up ~5c, but Rep NO is still sub-50c):
https://twitter.com/AP/status/759066992733282305?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/759067834299379712

https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/759069907812311044

I'm really going to enjoy the next few years of watching every single little sinister ALEC plan pushed through statehouses for the last 15 years get turned back one after another by the courts

also the mccrory market, but it's already moving a bit: https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2454/Will-Pat-McCrory-be-re-elected-North-Carolina-governor-in-2016#data

thethreeman has issued a correction as of 20:07 on Jul 29, 2016

# ? Jul 29, 2016 20:03

EngineerSean: Feb 9, 2004; by zen death robot

Shear Modulus posted:

I think the idea that Bernie voters won't vote for Clinton in swing states is being blown out of proportion because it's like the only way to paint the race as competitive.

What's Trump's stance on weed anyway? Does he have one?

I think that it was already a problem for her before the dnc leaks and if the election were today, it'd be a huge problem. I think most of the bernie bros will forget about it by November though.

# ? Jul 29, 2016 20:06