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Once again the fate of the country rests with swamp people or the land of serial killers and astronauts.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:31
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I hope Clinton gets that convention bounce soon, not because I want her to win but because people will shut up with their conspiracy theories about 538's prediction model. Or at least the theories will become more entertaining since the Trump guys will be spouting them instead. Like how does Silver ignoring the polls and dismissing Trump lead into him skewing the polls in favour of Trump. That's the exact opposite lesson. Maybe it helps that I listen to Broken Nate's podcast and I actually understand his reasoning for how the model works.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:31
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surreal
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Jul 31, 2016 20:31
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Joementum posted:"Give me the Lego man." What's Pence's schedule like? Shouldn't he be out campaigning in battleground states?
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Jul 31, 2016 20:35
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Antti posted:Maybe it helps that I listen to Broken Nate's podcast and I actually understand his reasoning for how the model works. I do and I understand his idea. I just find it as misguided as Boosted's 2012 unskewing.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:35
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Antti posted:I hope Clinton gets that convention bounce soon, not because I want her to win but because people will shut up with their conspiracy theories about 538's prediction model. Or at least the theories will become more entertaining since the Trump guys will be spouting them instead. Especially funny because it's the same model he used in 2012.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:35
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Vertical Lime posted:don't you love how this is worded justin miller is a traitor to his clan oh gently caress i want a clip of this, and who the hell is the supporter that would say that???
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Jul 31, 2016 20:36
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Only go to barbers that use that lovely shave cream machine that warms it
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Jul 31, 2016 20:36
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Joementum posted:"Give me the Lego man." Give me the q tip, "family"
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Jul 31, 2016 20:36
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DynamicSloth posted:What's Pence's schedule like? Shouldn't he be out campaigning in battleground states? they both took a break for the weekend, have events for tomorrow
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Jul 31, 2016 20:37
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Antti posted:Maybe it helps that I listen to Broken Nate's podcast and I actually understand his reasoning for how the model works. when did Nate silver merge with Matt hardy
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Jul 31, 2016 20:38
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https://twitter.com/JesseLehrich/status/759833188495716352 couldn't even bend at the hips to bow, just not in his nature, which is the best
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Jul 31, 2016 20:39
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DynamicSloth posted:What's Pence's schedule like? Shouldn't he be out campaigning in battleground states? He's a Christian, a Conservative, and a Republican. In that order. Today's the Sabbath, friend.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:39
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ahahahhaha tfe
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Jul 31, 2016 20:40
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DynamicSloth posted:What's Pence's schedule like? Shouldn't he be out campaigning in battleground states? The "real" campaign doesn't start until Labour Day. But when your running mate is Donald loving Trump you should probably make good use of any time you have. Or for a comedy answer, the campaign is in such disarray they aren't even ready to start hitting swing states.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:40
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Mr Trump sacrificed two wives, which as the Khans no doubt realize, would be worth at least 12 goats and 4 camels
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Jul 31, 2016 20:40
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Jul 31, 2016 20:41
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Also, two sons turned into serial killers because he worked a lot. So much sacrifice
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Jul 31, 2016 20:42
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Trump: Khan. Khan, you've won Hillary the presidency. But you don't have me! You're going to kill me, Khan. You're going to have to come down here. You're going to have to come down here. Khan: I've done far worse than kill you... I've hurt you. And I wish to go on hurting you. I shall leave you as you left me, as you left my son... marooned for all eternity in the annals of political losers. A loser... a loser... Trump: KHAAAAAAAAAN!! KHAAAAAAAAAN!!
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Jul 31, 2016 20:43
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Those photos of his sons standing over their large game kills look pretty sacrificial to me.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:47
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i dunno who nate silver is, and i dunno what unskewing means, but reading this thread is worth it for this stuff:
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Jul 31, 2016 20:50
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Nate Dogg's hairline seems to be receding in a really bizarre way
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Jul 31, 2016 20:53
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William Bear posted:Trump: Khan. Khan, you've won Hillary the presidency. But you don't have me! You're going to kill me, Khan. You're going to have to come down here. You're going to have to come down here. This really shouldn't be funny, but I'll be damned if I didn't crack up reading this.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:54
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Just need Donald to latch onto the idea of sacrificed marriages now
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Jul 31, 2016 20:54
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Silver's final, election eve prediction will end up doing pretty well, but it's hard to not do "pretty well" with a presidential general election a few days out. Dick Morris, celebrated idiot and noted worst pundit in politics, called 41/50 states in 2012. When 41/50 is the baseline worst performance you can get, the bar is pretty low and getting 48 or 49 out of 50 isn't that impressive anymore.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:54
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Jul 31, 2016 20:54
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Slaughterhouse-Ive posted:Nate Dogg's hairline seems to be receding in a really bizarre way Her hair is like like the picture of Dorian Grey story. Wh
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Jul 31, 2016 20:55
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Slaughterhouse-Ive posted:Nate Dogg's hairline seems to be receding in a really bizarre way like a lot of guys going bald, he tried to get plugs, but you still continue to lose hair in the non-plugged spots
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Jul 31, 2016 20:56
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Stare too long into the abyss, and the abyss convinces you plugs and a combover looks fine
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Jul 31, 2016 20:57
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Boosted_C5 posted:How can you people still not understand Donald Trump after all of this? I have learned to just skim over the tone deaf posts. Name-calling and fantasy scenarios are the tell.
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Jul 31, 2016 20:58
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pathetic little tramp posted:like a lot of guys going bald, he tried to get plugs, but you still continue to lose hair in the non-plugged spots But that's why you're supposed to take Propecia and wait a few years before doing it. Unless he's using Smallhand's dermatologist
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Jul 31, 2016 20:59
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Joementum posted:The classiest, most luxurious campaign, let me tell you. Other campaigns are losers. I'm pretty sure they will write books about it though.
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Jul 31, 2016 21:00
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Slaughterhouse-Ive posted:But that's why you're supposed to take Propecia and wait a few years before doing it. Unless he's using Smallhand's dermatologist maybe nate is avoiding Propecia for another reason http://www.menshealth.com/health/hair-raising-effect
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Jul 31, 2016 21:01
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Joementum posted:Especially funny because it's the same model he used in 2012. Which is why I gave up on him in 2012.
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Jul 31, 2016 21:02
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https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/759838941851770884
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Jul 31, 2016 21:02
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So how's Trump enjoying the general election so far?
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Jul 31, 2016 21:03
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Decius posted:It will be interesting to compare the unskewing done by Nate Silver with the real result in November. After 2012 (where the pure polls were pretty good) and the Primary (where the pure polls again were pretty good, but Silver dropped the ball by ignoring the polls and playing pundit) building a model where the whole assumption is that Trump will do by 3-5 % better than the polls say in basically every single swing state - unskewing the polls - is an interesting approach. I guess their hope/assumption is that the polls will be in line with their prediction in October/November, but that seems a pretty big assumption on his side in the first place. At least we don't have 3-4 site all saying basically the same this time around, will be interesting if Upshot/PEC or 538 have the better model for a less stable race than 2008/2012. The reason why it's so aggressive with the adjustments right now is that the model takes into account trendlines when performing adjustments. Obviously I don't know the exact algorithm but it's likely just seeing that Trump has improved in the polls recently and is projecting that this will continue. Over time, if his progress stalls, the trendline adjustment will even out and converge with Trump's polling average. Clinton is seeing a similar effect, just in the other direction. The trendline adjustments are pushing the model 3-4 points towards Trump across the states. Throw in other adjustments and the shift can be quite significant (5-7 points overall), particularly if a pollster has a strong house effect in their model. The reason we didn't see this in 2012 is that the polls were unusually stable. I would just not read too deeply into any model at this point.
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Jul 31, 2016 21:04
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biased lamestream media
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Jul 31, 2016 21:04
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Watching Trump's media surrogates try to defend whatever stupid thing he said most recently has been one of the funniest parts of the campaign. They are not exactly the brightest or most eloquent bunch and struggle even with a winning hand, so these progressively worse contortions they twist themselves into before the media moves onto a new story are a real joy to watch.
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Jul 31, 2016 21:05
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Willie Tomg posted:yeah i'm not entirely sure how ppl here can supposedly watch this trashfire of a cargo cult approximation of democratic process and not realize the pattern that's been established by now Can somebody decode this post for me? What does this mean?
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Jul 31, 2016 21:06
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