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Deteriorata posted:"Defeat" is probably too strong of a word. The US primarily wants to contain Russia and rein in its international adventurism. There's no interest in an actual military confrontation, just limiting the damage until Putin is finally gone and maybe it becomes more cooperative. We never stopped trying to contain Russia, so while the sanctions are an escalation in response to some of Putin's actions, the containment itself is just US strategic policy toward Russia period. To bring it back to the Middle East, everyone knows we look the other way when our clients do awful things and oppress their people, or help them in the case of Saudi Arabia's idiotic war in Yemen, but we very clearly don't extend that same benefit of the doubt to Russian clients. The Cold War ended, but the US never really stopped trying to paint the map blue. Of course Russia was going to end up with a revanchist foreign policy in the face of that tightening encirclement. Dr Kool-AIDS fucked around with this message at 22:47 on Jul 30, 2016 |
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Jul 30, 2016 22:44
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Sinteres posted:We never stopped trying to contain Russia, so while the sanctions are an escalation in response to some of Putin's actions, the containment itself is just US strategic policy toward Russia period. To bring it back to the Middle East, everyone knows we look the other way when our clients do awful things and oppress their people, or help them in the case of Saudi Arabia's idiotic war in Yemen, but we very clearly don't extend that same benefit of the doubt to Russian clients. The Cold War ended, but the US never really stopped trying to paint the map blue. Of course Russia was going to end up with a revanchist foreign policy in the face of that tightening encirclement. In my opinion it is a bit more nuanced. Would the current Russian administration be in the enviable position of the post Cold War US, they would have strongly endeavored to paint the map red as well. Where they did freak out was at some of the means used and rules ignored in the most recent blue painting, as well as the locations of the map repaints. Moving into Georgia and Ukraine is the equivalent of a cold war victorious USSR moving into Mexiko and Canada. This would not gain much, and spawn a major revanchist US reaction. Given that the strongest challenger to a victorious USSR would also be China, this would be something the Russians would probably not do had they won the cold war. In kind of goes into the theme of the US not acting as a strictly Realpolitik power from a Russian pov. If you put a Russian, as a part of an exercise, into the shoes of Obama, he would only go into Ukraine if he intends to in some way crush/utterly defeat/permanently kick out of great power status Russia as well. From their pov. US actions in Ukraine are either proof of US hostility on a lethal level or proof of US insanity (if they inflict that kind of wound on a nuclear power that has a reputation for being vengeful, without having a plan of what to do next, well, that is pretty insane). Either explanation demands a forceful response. I think the Russians expected the US to act like the Old British Empire during its Apex period. Paint much of the map pink (blue in the US case) but stay away from Russian, or other great power, red lines (which would leave plenty of map space to be painted), not so much to appease Russia, but in the US rational self interest because paint blue over Russian red lines is hard, and painting blue away from Russias red lines is easier and more rewarding economically.
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Jul 31, 2016 00:40
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https://www.rt.com/news/354042-turkish-police-incirlik-nato-coup/ Ohhhhhh no
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Jul 31, 2016 00:41
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Oh please try to grab those nukes.
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Jul 31, 2016 00:44
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Hmm, to me it seems that the police forces (if you use the linked article inside of what you linked) are facing the demonstrants, not the base. Meaning that they are there to prevent the anti Nato protestors from doing something stupid. The twitter feed also implies that, imho, the police blocked the road to the base in order to control the protestors.
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Jul 31, 2016 00:50
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Is there even anybody left in Turkey who could attempt a coup?
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Jul 31, 2016 00:56
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I think the way the article frames it makes it seem a lot more extreme than it is. We'll see how things develop, though.
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Jul 31, 2016 00:59
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HighwireAct posted:I think the way the article frames it makes it seem a lot more extreme than it is. We'll see how things develop, though. It's RT. I'm waiting for a legitimate news site to pick it up before I believe anything is happening.
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Jul 31, 2016 01:02
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Ianiniho posted:Is there even anybody left in this thread who could attempt a coup?
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Jul 31, 2016 01:03
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HighwireAct posted:I think the way the article frames it makes it seem a lot more extreme than it is. We'll see how things develop, though. Its Russia today, their current intention is to troll escalate things between Turkey and the US, to create a mutual perception of distrust between those two and to have some "lulz" at other peoples expenses. I apologize for the internet slang, but in that case it is literally appropriate. To this end, they will happily imply that police force "preventing access" to Incirlik are besieging it, they will overstate the number of demonstrators (but not by more then one order of magnitude) and make many many fotos of whatever vehicles the police forces use, provided the vehicles look somewhat impressive. I do not think that Erdogan will try to pull a Khomeini and do a "nuclear Incirlik hostage crisis". He is winning, suddenly taking on exististential risks would be incredibly weird. If he wants nukes, he can get them the safe way. Peon prediction 5: Erdogan will not go nuclear Incirlik hostage crisis.
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Jul 31, 2016 01:15
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Ianiniho posted:Is there even anybody left in Turkey who could attempt a coup? Yes, a relatively small portion of the military nearly succeeded despite having no plan, loving everything up, and having zero support from the population and politicians. It's highly unlikely now, although something like besieging Incirlik would probably be enough for the US to make some calls.
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Jul 31, 2016 01:21
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Mightypeon posted:Its Russia today, their current intention is to troll escalate things between Turkey and the US, to create a mutual perception of distrust between those two and to have some "lulz" at other peoples expenses. The only other news source I could find was from Sputnik, so it's certainly looking like that's the case. What incentive would the Kremlin have to heighten the tensions between Turkey and the US? It doesn't seem like they'd be deliberately embellishing details like that in their press outlets if they aren't trying to get something out of it.
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Jul 31, 2016 01:24
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Emanuel Collective posted:Yes, a relatively small portion of the military nearly succeeded despite having no plan, loving everything up, and having zero support from the population and politicians. It's highly unlikely now, although something like besieging Incirlik would probably be enough for the US to make some calls. + lots of people who think they may be next to get purged. You see, the thought of getting purged soon can lead to interesting reactions that can make times much more interesting. Thing is, the coups you know of in advance very rarely work. Did a quick check concerning Incirlik on Reuters, AP, and even some more fact based pro Russian sites. Nothing.
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Jul 31, 2016 01:26
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HighwireAct posted:The only other news source I could find was from Sputnik, so it's certainly looking like that's the case. What incentive would the Kremlin have to heighten the tensions between Turkey and the US? It doesn't seem like they'd be deliberately embellishing details like that in their press outlets if they aren't trying to get something out of it. Thats pretty simple. The issue in Syria is a clash between different coalitions. In such clashes, you attack the boundaries that tie the hostile coalition together, you try to spread misinformation between them, make them mistrust each other and thus increase, in Clausewitzian terms, friction. Ideally, you get that actors in the adversarial coalition defect to yours, more realistically the adversarial coalition could be dented or partially fractured. The more friction, the less cohesive the coalition, and the easier it becomes to reach an agreement on your terms. Some of the more optimistic Russian media war officers have been hoping to use the Kurds as a wedge issue between Turkey and the US (I argue that the US also tries to use the Kurds issue as a wedge between Russia on one side and Iran, Iraq and Syria on the other side, I also argue that the US is more likely to suceed here). Erdogan being either unpredictable or a closet pro Russian is a wedge issue they are currently trying. Imho, from an efficiency standpoint, they should settle consistently on one of these portrayals, but they probably wont do that. The general thing is that Russia perceives Erdogan to be in an attempt to creatively renegotiate the terms of his American alliance. Russia hopes that this creative renegotiation takes a long time, ends with not much success and many mutual recriminantions etc. . The easiest way to do so is to convince Erdogan of demanding as much as possible, while also increasing western, in particular US hostility towards Turkey. They can do both of that simultaneously by appearing to be in bed with Erdogan, and Erdogan will not refute appearances of increased relations with Russia because it strengthens his negotiation position concerning the USA. The USA meanwhile will react in a hostile way to perceptions of a Russo-Turkish thaw. My guess is that the Kremlin sent the directive "Erdogan is currently someone else problem, we dont like someone else, make Erdogan look good". Precisely what Russia Today, Sputnik, writes is not micromanaged. This bromance will not last. The interesting question (where I dont feel confident on making a peon prediction on) is if Putin eventually gets to stab Erdogan or Erdogan gets to stab Putin. I am guessing the latter. Russia would incur more costs for stabbing Erdogan then Erdogan would incur for stabbing Russia.
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Jul 31, 2016 01:43
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Haha I came here to post this. What the gently caress Turkey?
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Jul 31, 2016 01:46
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fade5 I meant to ask but what the hell is your avatar?Mightypeon posted:Peon prediction 5: No poo poo.
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Jul 31, 2016 08:39
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SSNeoman posted:fade5 I meant to ask but what the hell is your avatar? here comes dat boi
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Jul 31, 2016 09:42
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farraday wakes up to find wallet hiding under the bed, uncertain how it got there.
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Jul 31, 2016 10:35
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The problem is if RT reports the sky is blue I worry that skies have actually all turned green.
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Jul 31, 2016 14:47
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Ianiniho posted:Is there even anybody left in Turkey who could attempt a coup? Brown Moses posted:Been back home a week nope
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Jul 31, 2016 15:42
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Apparently, Joint Chief of Staff Chairman Gen. Joseph Dunford will be visiting Incirlik today. I'm guessing that the security cordon that got put up around the airbase and the security inspection might have to do with that.
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Jul 31, 2016 17:24
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SSNeoman posted:fade5 I meant to ask but what the hell is your avatar?  I made a thread request/hint for a less silly avatar, and got this one instead. I'm happy with it though, I mostly just got tired of the old one. Aleppo news: https://twitter.com/miladvisor/status/759777083115446272 quote:Jaish al-Fateh (Nusra,Ahrar& Ajnad etc.) announce #Aleppo offensive break siege from south. https://twitter.com/imadaldinz/status/759739657521213440 quote:Skies of #Aleppo turn black after many tyres are burnt to give cover for the freedom fighters during the offensive fade5 fucked around with this message at 18:42 on Jul 31, 2016 |
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Jul 31, 2016 18:33
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http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-attacks-is-propaganda-idUKKCN10B0IN gently caress, that seems really loving bad.
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Jul 31, 2016 22:13
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As far as I know: Last loyalist offensive suffered because, while Hezbollah with Russian air support is a pretty potent offensive combo, the other militias werent up to much. SAA is a mixed bag. They have about 2 good units, but are pretty reluctant to commit them because one of them is basically Assads Praetorian Guard, and the other are the Tiger forces (who get comitted to a lot of stuff). Thing with the Tiger forces: It seems that their performance is heavily due to the fact that their commander legitimatly knows his poo poo in military terms. He is leading quite from the front, is heavily respected by his troops and is kind of Syrian Rokosovsky. Thing is, that makes him one kind of unique guy. Either assasination, or him becoming too popular for someone elses tase, are legtimate threats to him. Hezbollah straight up  ed a Regime aligned militia commander who abandoned ground they took at considerable cost.This time, Hezbollah is the tactical reserve (and generally, putting your heavy hitters in the reserve makes a lot of sense), and Iran apperantly escalted their involvement by sending in the 65th special force division. IIRC that division is pretty reknowned for training, and shoring up militias. And well, the vector of the rebel relief forces is pretty obvious.
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Aug 1, 2016 03:12
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Is there some sort of Youtube video or something from a news site that has a detailed look into the entire conflict in the Middle East? I tentatively know what is going on but I'm fairly positive I'm missed a lot of detail in this fuckery stretching from 2003-2016. I'd really prefer a video so I can have it running while I do something else.
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Aug 1, 2016 04:04
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YouTuber posted:Is there some sort of Youtube video or something from a news site that has a detailed look into the entire conflict in the Middle East? I tentatively know what is going on but I'm fairly positive I'm missed a lot of detail in this fuckery stretching from 2003-2016. How far back do you want to go? I mean one starting point is the fall of the Ottoman empire in WW1.
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Aug 1, 2016 05:02
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Nitrousoxide posted:How far back do you want to go? I mean one starting point is the fall of the Ottoman empire in WW1. And that ignores a whole lot of issues dating back another few hundred years.
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Aug 1, 2016 05:22
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Kurtofan posted:http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-europe-attacks-is-propaganda-idUKKCN10B0IN The only thing new about it is that now it's official.
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Aug 1, 2016 05:59
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Rukeli posted:If you want the US to bomb every organization in the world with ties to terrorism, including those which have not carried out attacks against Americans, and without taking into account the peculiarities of the conflict they are entrenched in, then the US had better start bombing PKK and YPG positions and prepare for Operation Cast Lead II. Fun fact: Certain designated terrorist organisations which previously and repeatedly attacked US targets fight alongside PKK/YPG forces in Syria as close allies. (DHKP-C and MLKP) Pakled posted:I mean, the choice here isn't "pro-Kurd vs anti-Kurd" it's "anti-Kurd with Islamist baggage vs anti-Kurd with Turkish nationalist baggage." This is a pretty dumb thing to say. Anti-Kurd sentiment, as the PKK propaganda/PR would like the Western audience to believe doesn't exist in meaningful quantities in Turkey. Marxist/Maoist cult of personality PKK has been waging a bloody terrorism campaign since 1978, so the popular and overwhelmingly visible sentiment among the society is very much anti-PKK. (Or any group and organisation that worships Apo in the full North Korean sense) I'd say at least the %90 of the population is very strongly anti-PKK, which is quite normal and to be expected. I've seen a lot of talk about the Armenian genocide in this thread (hat tip to icantfindaname) but what hasn't been said is that the Armenian genocide is just a continuation of official Ottoman and Turkish policy. Sergg posted:I've seen a lot of talk about the Armenian genocide in this thread (hat tip to icantfindaname) but what hasn't been said is that the Armenian genocide is just a continuation of official Ottoman and Turkish policy. Yeah, no. First of all, Turkish Republic didn't even exist until 1923, and nothing of that kind (massacres, killings) has ever been an official policy of Turkey. Your chronology is all messed up. Furthermore, when the relocation and massacres took place, Ottoman Empire was the sovereign state in those parts. At the time, Ottoman Empire was a constitutional monarchy with a monarch as the head of the state and a parliament which produced a government to run the state. Evidence from official archives (meaning official state communique between Istanbul and provinces) suggests that while the relocation was officially mandated on the basis of protection of local population and that parts of Armenian population in the eastern provinces were actively aiding and abetting Czarist Russian invasion forces, anything and everything pertaining to killings and massacres were not and thus are attributed to a clique within the Committee of Union and Progress, the ruling party that controlled the government. Besides, the insinuation that 'Ottoman Empire relocated Muslim refugees from the Balkans and Caucuses in Anatolia' is dumb if it's used as a general historical trend, as the general trends in Ottoman settlement policies starting with 15th century have always been the other way around: Muslim populations from the Anatolian heartlands were settled into the freshly conquered Balkan and Caucus territories, while the non-Muslim locals tended to be moved to Anatolian heartlands as a measure of stability. almighty fucked around with this message at 07:27 on Aug 1, 2016 |
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Aug 1, 2016 06:54
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Another Russian transport helo crashed over Aleppo. According to Russian media, it was returning from a "humanitarian" mission in Aleppo city when it was brought down. According to RT all 5 people on board the Mi-8 were killed. https://www.rt.com/news/354128-russian-helicopter-syria-down/
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Aug 1, 2016 11:52
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slavatuvs posted:Another Russian transport helo crashed over Aleppo. According to Russian media, it was returning from a "humanitarian" mission in Aleppo city when it was brought down. I wonder if this was the same sort of "humanitarian mission" the Russians were carrying out in East Ukraine with all those trucks they had crossing the border. Apparently people can eat bullets now.
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Aug 1, 2016 12:53
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if this was the same sort of "humanitarian mission" the Russians were carrying out in East Ukraine with all those trucks they had crossing the border. Apparently people can eat bullets now. Bullets reduce demand for food, thus alleviating the humanitarian crisis.
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Aug 1, 2016 13:19
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Charliegrs posted:I wonder if this was the same sort of "humanitarian mission" the Russians were carrying out in East Ukraine with all those trucks they had crossing the border. Apparently people can eat bullets now. Rockets provide more calories. https://twitter.com/EliotHiggins/status/760058865685790722
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Aug 1, 2016 14:21
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Volkerball posted:Rockets provide more calories. Christ, those replies. I don't know how he does it. My favorite. https://twitter.com/BaazistRaqqawi/status/760100194373500928
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Aug 1, 2016 14:32
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almighty posted:Fun fact: Certain designated terrorist organisations which previously and repeatedly attacked US targets fight alongside PKK/YPG forces in Syria as close allies. (DHKP-C and MLKP) I'm surprised no one has responded to genocide apologia like this yet. Does everyone else have almighty ignore-listed or something?
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Aug 1, 2016 14:50
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slavatuvs posted:Christ, those replies. I don't know how he does it. The best ones are where people get pissy over the opinions they wrongly imagine I have: https://twitter.com/LuisJ2000s/status/760066241407119360
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Aug 1, 2016 14:58
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Silver2195 posted:I'm surprised no one has responded to genocide apologia like this yet. Does everyone else have almighty ignore-listed or something? Debating lifelong-brainwashed Turkish fascists is a futile exercise. There is a certain satisfaction in calling them out for what they are, point by point, but most of the time it's really hard to be bothered, because you KNOW that anything logical or historically founded will bounce right off of them and their 'education'. So sometimes a post like that just sits there, unanswered. Sorry, I'm on vacation! I don't know about you guys.
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Aug 1, 2016 15:02
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In theory an aid helicopter could be armed for self defence (eg. if delivering humanitarian aid to some remote but mostly peaceful villages), but that would be an utter suicide to do so above a contested city like Aleppo, your enemies would see the pods on your winglets and shoot you down before you got anywhere close to dropping your 'aid' cargo. OTOH maybe they didn't meant to provide humanitarian but comic relief
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Aug 1, 2016 15:10
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Nenonen posted:In theory an aid helicopter could be armed for self defence (eg. if delivering humanitarian aid to some remote but mostly peaceful villages), but that would be an utter suicide to do so above a contested city like Aleppo, your enemies would see the pods on your winglets and shoot you down before you got anywhere close to dropping your 'aid' cargo. That same guy with the Assad avatar is arguing that the Mi-8 needed missiles pods for balance. Regardless that pretty much every variation is without armament.
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Aug 1, 2016 15:16
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slavatuvs posted:That same guy with the Assad avatar is arguing that the Mi-8 needed missiles pods for balance. Yeah, and my bike needs an atomic laser. Also for "balance".
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