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FYI: Trump announced a July fundraising figure of just over $35m but the market hasn't really reacted yet. Lots of folks are still married to their bet that he's going to break $40m somehow.
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Aug 2, 2016 16:15
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Vox Nihili posted:FYI: Trump announced a July fundraising figure of just over $35m but the market hasn't really reacted yet. Lots of folks are still married to their bet that he's going to break $40m somehow. bruh, are you being serious here?
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Aug 2, 2016 16:19
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Arkane posted:bruh, are you being serious here? Absolutely, bruh.
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Aug 2, 2016 16:36
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Vox Nihili posted:Absolutely, bruh. Just as an FYI, when the 35.8 number came out, the market went from 65% for over 40, to around 5% for over 40, and then it has bounced back to where it is trading now at around 35%. So whether intentionally or not, it is grossly inaccurate to say that the market "hasn't reacted" and there's just a bunch of simpletons hanging onto bad bets.
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Aug 2, 2016 16:49
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Arkane posted:Just as an FYI, when the 35.8 number came out, the market went from 65% for over 40, to around 5% for over 40, and then it has bounced back to where it is trading now at around 35%. OK. The market has not "fully reacted," then.
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Aug 2, 2016 16:50
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Anyway, I think it's wild that people are giving $40m+ a 1/3 chance after he announced a figure $5m smaller. Understatement isn't really a core strength of the Trump brand. I believeTrump only contributed around $1m of his own funds in July, too. The only way it goes over $40m is either 1) Trump is incompetent and misstated his $ raised (possible) or 2) Trump Victory Committee transfers a big pile of donations that Trump didnt include in his figure (also possible). If anyone thinks I'm missing some likely funds please let me know. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 17:07 on Aug 2, 2016 |
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Aug 2, 2016 16:54
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I'll bite for a few shares, sure. Hell, 30-35 is so cheap I'll grab some insurance shares in case he's overstating (I know, so out of character...)
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Aug 2, 2016 17:18
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Lotta different numbers bouncing around: http://fortune.com/2016/08/02/donald-trump-july-fundraising-wall-street-hedge-fund-hillary-clinton/ Are you sure the rules for the market strictly refer to small donors (hence, the 36m quote)? I checked out line 7 of the form itself but after a quick skim it looks like it includes funds from the candidate, party, and other sources: http://www.fec.gov/pdf/forms/fecfrm3p.pdf
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Aug 2, 2016 20:13
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Line 7 is all funds received by the Trump campaign committee. The victory fund donations can only go to the Trump committee insofar as they do not exceed the individual donor limit ($2700 per entire cycle). Last month he referred to $26m in email donations and that turned out to be his entire line 7 take including transfers and self-funding. Bottom line is it's not a sure thing, but a final line 7 figure right around the number he let slip would be consistent with how last month panned out.
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Aug 2, 2016 20:23
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Ok, thanks for the explanation and tip  On another note, Johnson and Stein both spiked today, making the NOs pretty cheap, and there's almost two weeks of potential bad news in which to get profit and get back out. https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3253/Will-national-polling-give-Jill-Stein-at-least-3-in-a-4-way-race-on-August-15 https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3252/Will-national-polling-give-Gary-Johnson-at-least-7-in-a-4-way-race-on-August-15 Thoughts? I wouldn't hold either till the end, since it's such a fine line you can easily get hosed (don't bet on polls), but riding daily swings has seemed pretty easy so far.
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Aug 2, 2016 21:08
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Nosre posted:Ok, thanks for the explanation and tip I bought a pile of Jill Yes at 50c and below that I've been selling off at 71c. IMO theres still solid demand for Yes ATM (flipped 800 shares so far), so you might get cheaper No in a couple days. Vox Nihili has issued a correction as of 21:19 on Aug 2, 2016 |
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Aug 2, 2016 21:16
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Nirvikalpa posted:http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/tim-canovas-poll-shows-he-is-eight-points-behind-debbie-wasserman-schultz/2287632 If you're leaking an internal poll that shows you 8 points down less than a month before the election, you're definitely getting spanked.
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Aug 3, 2016 02:30
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Ehhh...when everyone is expecting you to lose by 30+ points, the idea is to show things are more competitive than not. Still, yeah--he has no time to make up the deficit.
OAquinas has issued a correction as of 05:16 on Aug 3, 2016 |
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Aug 3, 2016 04:35
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Vox Nihili posted:I bought a pile of Jill Yes at 50c and below that I've been selling off at 71c. IMO theres still solid demand for Yes ATM (flipped 800 shares so far), so you might get cheaper No in a couple days. Finished selling these off, but the demand for Yes seems to be subsiding a bit.
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Aug 3, 2016 05:05
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Vox Nihili posted:Anyway, I think it's wild that people are giving $40m+ a 1/3 chance after he announced a figure $5m smaller. Understatement isn't really a core strength of the Trump brand. Well, if you still believe this the market just collapsed for 35-39.
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Aug 3, 2016 16:20
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OAquinas posted:Well, if you still believe this the market just collapsed for 35-39. well... quote:Republican nominee Donald Trump in July raised $64 million for his campaign and a joint fund with the Republican National Committee, marking another substantial escalation in his fundraising that draws him far closer to Democratic rival Hillary Clinton.
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Aug 3, 2016 18:06
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Got a bunch at 35c. Lots of people misunderstood that press release.
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Aug 3, 2016 18:06
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pump harder i'm almost there
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Aug 3, 2016 18:16
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Lutha Mahtin posted:pump harder i'm almost there Hahaha. Can't I have to work now.
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Aug 3, 2016 18:17
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 https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3302/Will-Trump-drop-out-by-August-31The rules have a nice "for any reason other than death" caveat. You know Priebus has thought about it, halfway through the latest bottle.
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Aug 3, 2016 18:45
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OAquinas posted:
yeah i maxed that immediately at 89 cents for no would be ecstatic to lose money on that
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Aug 3, 2016 19:45
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I, meanwhile, got 100 shares at .04 for a nice lottery ticket 
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Aug 3, 2016 20:05
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There's now a Trump dropout market. As in, will Trump drop out of the race by August 31st? Uhm... Is there some news I haven't heard of?
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Aug 3, 2016 20:31
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e_angst posted:There's now a Trump dropout market. As in, will Trump drop out of the race by August 31st? He's self-immolating at a rate that Buddhist monks are feeling jealous over. Priebus is in Air Bud rules-lawyering territory to see if they can replace him somehow, and if not there was strong rumors of a bunch of head GOP people staging an intervention for Trump to try and rein him in.
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Aug 3, 2016 21:04
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lmao they opened one for Hillary as well : https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3303#data
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Aug 3, 2016 21:09
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Necc0 posted:lmao they opened one for Hillary as well : https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3303#data Feels like they're trying to suck up the last few pennies the BernieBros have left.
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Aug 3, 2016 21:21
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Necc0 posted:lmao they opened one for Hillary as well : https://www.predictit.org/Contract/3303#data Lol @ the max order for Yes shares at 1c.
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Aug 3, 2016 21:39
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Apparently a new poll has Canova down 33% - DWS market surged 7c, but still just 85c... https://www.predictit.org/Contract/2732/Will-Debbie-Wasserman-Schultz-win-the-Democratic-primary-in-Florida's-23rd-Congressional-District#data
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Aug 3, 2016 21:57
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Do they specifically spell out that death doesn't count as a drop out for legal reasons? Cuz otherwise they might be offering a death pool?
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Aug 4, 2016 00:02
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Putting a financial incentive on an assassination is a Bad Idea™
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Aug 4, 2016 00:07
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Death doesn't count
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Aug 4, 2016 00:13
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It would be pretty gross to offer a direct financial payout upon the death of someone. especially "unpopular" politicians like Trump and Clinton, like can you even imagine how the PI comment sections would go off the rails about conspiracy theories and predictions that one of them might get assassinated? gently caress  edit: i like that they are still coming up with semi-original ideas for markets. the nominee dropout markets are neat, and i've been having fun in the electoral college bucket market. the buckets one is just pure speculation and all of them seem to undulate up and down, so there is plenty of opportunity for flipping and neg-risking Lutha Mahtin has issued a correction as of 00:16 on Aug 4, 2016 |
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Aug 4, 2016 00:13
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I believe the policy of Intrade (PI's predecessor) in the event of a Presidential candidate's death was to expire any contracts at the previous day's average price, and then start a new market.
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Aug 4, 2016 00:31
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So 5 days away from the election, and Paul Ryan winning the primary is sub 90. Between him and DWS market I've really got to question the wisdom of crowds.
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Aug 4, 2016 02:18
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There are some interesting bets you can make with all of the different electoral college markets. Right now, "Will Hillary get >370 EV" (NO) is trading at $0.71. Pair that up with the different EV bracket bets in this market and you can more than cover your NO bet risk above by buying shares in the 360-379, 380-399 and 400+ brackets. Quick example: buy 100 shares of NO on the >370 EV for Dems above. Total risk is $71. Then buy 50 shares of 360-370 YES @ $0.18 for $9.00, 78 shares of 380-399 YES @ $0.09 for $7.02 and 78 shares of 400+ YES @ $0.08 for $6.24. If Hillary wins with <360 EV you win $29 and lose the other 3 bets for $22.26 ($6.74 net profit). If she wins with 360-369 EV you win both the >370 NO and 360-379 YES bets for $70.00, minus the 2 losing bets for $13.26 ($56.74 net profit). If she wins with 370-399 EV you break even. If she wins with 400+ EV you break even. I just found this thread/website, so I may be missing some mechanic about the trades that makes this not as much of a sure thing as it looks (even with the 10% fee, you can still cover your first bet here and stay net positive by bumping up the shares on the small value bets), but this stuff is really interesting.
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Aug 4, 2016 02:30
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BCRock posted:There are some interesting bets you can make with all of the different electoral college markets. Buy NO in all 8 sub markets, and probably buy no in the 370+ landslide market. You win money no matter what the actual EC total is as long as you structure your NO bets at a proper price. Or buy NO on everything except YES in 400+ or 279 or less, so you can have a little extra to buy your celebratory/consolation booze.
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Aug 4, 2016 02:42
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Gyges posted:Buy NO in all 8 sub markets, and probably buy no in the 370+ landslide market. You win money no matter what the actual EC total is as long as you structure your NO bets at a proper price. Yeah, was just realizing that would work too. Good stuff! Edit: Can you max each of these bets out at $850 or can your bets on all of these different brackets only total $850? If you could go up to $850 on each NO bet individually, you'd be guaranteed a ~$186-$950 profit. Edit 2: Ah, I see these are all considered one market so you can only put $850 over all of the different brackets. Still, guaranteed profit. BCRock has issued a correction as of 04:23 on Aug 4, 2016 |
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Aug 4, 2016 02:45
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This poo poo is addictive. And, at least for those of us getting up early and/or living in Europe, you can totally make bucks playing polls without spreadsheeting out release times and pestering insiders on twitter. This morning a CNN poll release took B1 https://www.predictit.org/Market/2345/What-will-Obama%27s-RCP-average-job-approval-be-at-end-of-day-August-5 from around .25 to .75 in the space of an hour, and, critically: 1) the market didn't move a penny before the poll was publicly released on twitter, and 2) it took a good 5-15 minutes for predictit to react, so this stuff is noticeable just by keeping a lazy eye on twitter at a desk job. I unfortunately had no liquidity ready and was indecisive so I missed a lot of this example, but, lessons learned. I've been bumbling around making mistakes for about two weeks (lost around $70 following the 'always bet against Johnson' mantra) but am still up about 60%.
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Aug 4, 2016 15:00
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So who else got in on that Gallup flip?
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Aug 4, 2016 18:30
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New market has "will Corbyn be Labour leader on 10/1" for 90c. Sounds about right if maybe a little low. There's also one for next UKIP leader but I have no idea about that one. Shear Modulus has issued a correction as of 23:01 on Aug 4, 2016 |
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Aug 4, 2016 22:55
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