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Reason is a low rent CeslestialScribe, ignore him.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:11
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Reason posted:Does Hillary have momentum? Her polls gut a bump after the convention, but they seem to be going down again.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:12
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seiferguy posted:There was article I saw that read "Hillary's post-DNC bump might actually stick around. Here's why." on my Google news feed. I dismissed it outright, but maybe there's some truth to it now. I still feel that it was less of a bump and more of a normalizing back to June numbers. The last week hasn't really told voters that much we didn't already know and believe about either candidate.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:14
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Am i right in thinking that a lot of the stuff that's showing up in my newsfeed re Johnson polling at 15% (from sites like RedState and the like) is more about keeping the horse-race narrative alive or is this actually something i should be paying attention to? I mean, i don't know. Libertarianism stuff always seems to me to suffer from the "five minutes and one second" rule that Charlie Pierce jokes about, where they're up there making sense for exactly five minutes but the moment they go over that they veer in to batshit territory. Grouchio posted:Are there any good life insurance articles that I could do a short write-up on for class? What sort of articles are you looking for, exactly?
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Aug 4, 2016 16:17
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FlamingLiberal posted:Since 1964 It's hard to overstate how much the Civil Rights Act pissed off some white people. My grandfather had a seething rage for LBJ until the day he died (just a few years ago) and seriously argued that he was the worst President in US history. Ironically he looked just like LBJ.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:17
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seiferguy posted:There was article I saw that read "Hillary's post-DNC bump might actually stick around. Here's why." on my Google news feed. I dismissed it outright, but maybe there's some truth to it now.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:18
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On Terra Firma posted:What? I never mentioned her campaign. It's just what's circulating among a few sites right now. Her campaign doesn't need to do a thing at the moment. Probably misread the context. Never mind!
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Aug 4, 2016 16:19
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citybeatnik posted:Am i right in thinking that a lot of the stuff that's showing up in my newsfeed re Johnson polling at 15% (from sites like RedState and the like) is more about keeping the horse-race narrative alive or is this actually something i should be paying attention to? Johnson's polling between 4-6% nationally. The only place I'm aware of that's he's polling 15% is Utah.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:20
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citybeatnik posted:Am i right in thinking that a lot of the stuff that's showing up in my newsfeed re Johnson polling at 15% (from sites like RedState and the like) is more about keeping the horse-race narrative alive or is this actually something i should be paying attention to? Johnson has done around 8-10% in his very best polls and is unlikely to go much higher.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:21
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I looked up the tank incident and holy gently caress
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Aug 4, 2016 16:21
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https://twitter.com/AP/status/761218927359909889?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw lmao
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Aug 4, 2016 16:21
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https://twitter.com/alanhe/status/761211033486823424
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Aug 4, 2016 16:22
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Arrgytehpirate posted:I looked up the tank incident and holy gently caress Now go look up the "Would you be in favor of the death penalty if your wife was raped?" debate thing.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:22
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American Poll Review Algorithm If (MY_CANDIDATE == LEADING_POLL) Printcomment("The people speak with us"); else if (MY_CANDIDATE == LOSING_POLL) Printcomment("There is something wrong with the Poll.");
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Aug 4, 2016 16:23
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Johnson may have less of a flatting this year because of Koch brothers backing but I doubt they break 4℅ as a party in November.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:23
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greatn posted:Do you think people might moderate after he dies? He's old, and there's no real replacement anywhere near as good as him.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:26
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Antti posted:Dukakis was already behind when the tank thing happened. A lot of these things burn themselves into the imagination and become markers and inflection points, but it's a very hard sell that he would have come back and somehow beat Bush in the polls without the tank ride, of course, it probably didn't help. But looking back at the election, it's easy to point at a certain iconic moment (like, say, a Gold Star father pulling out the Constitution) and say "Yes, that was what sunk him." Even with Trump, the it wasn't even Khan, it wasn't even his response to the Khans - it was the result of a problem built into his very character, if he loses. Another good example is the Dean Scream. He was already pretty far behind when it happened, but a lot of people think it was the YEEEEAAARRRGH that sank him.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:30
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Nope. As a rule of thumb, George W Bush's approval rating when he left office was 34%. That is probably Trump's floor.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:32
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mcmagic posted:As a rule of thumb, George W Bush's approval rating when he left office was 34%. That is probably Trump's floor. Before the new round of polling everyone thought that his floor was 40
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Aug 4, 2016 16:35
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mcmagic posted:As a rule of thumb, George W Bush's approval rating when he left office was 34%. That is probably Trump's floor. It hit a low of like 27% during the initial shock of the mortgage crash.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:35
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Zophar posted:I still feel that it was less of a bump and more of a normalizing back to June numbers. The last week hasn't really told voters that much we didn't already know and believe about either candidate. The Dems pretty much snatched patriotism and faith messaging back from the Republican party after the latter had been guarding it tooth and claw, and then kept to the high-road as the GOP nominee took an extended holiday in the seething depths of his apoplectic imagination. It was a short burst of activity and who knows how much of it will stick, but I do think it changed the fundamental dynamics of the race somewhat.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:36
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Edmund Lava posted:Johnson's polling between 4-6% nationally. The only place I'm aware of that's he's polling 15% is Utah. ImpAtom posted:Johnson has done around 8-10% in his very best polls and is unlikely to go much higher. Ah, so it is part of the horse race narrative then. Thanks.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:36
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El Disco posted:Another good example is the Dean Scream. He was already pretty far behind when it happened, but a lot of people think it was the YEEEEAAARRRGH that sank him. It's sort of like the Battle of Teutoberg Forest - the Roman Empire was already on a downward slope for a while, but we like to say "this is where the tide turned" because it's an easy shorthand. If it didn't happen, (pop) historians would have just pointed to something else as being the definitive decisive battle.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:37
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Also, third parties way out poll their actual electoral performances. GJ polled at ~5% for most of 2012, ended up with about 1%. People talk a big game on the phone, but these third party respondents either can't go through with it in the booth or aren't voting anyway.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:38
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I think Trumps (poll) death has been greatly exaggerated -- the race is bound to tighten up during the Olympics (if only because that will be a bigger shitshow and it will take the focus off of him) and he is guaranteed to win the first debate (for the horserace narrative and the curse of low expectations).
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Aug 4, 2016 16:38
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Vienna Circlejerk posted:Remember that Romney didn't even have a concession speech prepared. I'd honestly be surprised if Trump prepares one in advance or if he even decides to give one if he loses since doing so is an admission of having 'lost', far more so than grumbling about the polls being rigged. I'm actually pretty curious as to what his response would be if he was asked about it at this point and what consequences it would have; any flat-out answer of "no" would probably be one more thing to turn away people who are still somehow on the fence while an answer of "yes" would tarnish his image amongst his cult of personality worshipers (plus it could result in him getting mentally hung up on the concept of needing to publicly and bluntly admit to 'losing'). Maybe he would actually even answer the question if it was tweeted at him in a certain way, something like "Since the election's rigged, would you still give a concession speech if you lost to Crooked Lying Hillary?".
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Aug 4, 2016 16:38
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Feldegast42 posted:I think Trumps (poll) death has been greatly exaggerated -- the race is bound to tighten up during the Olympics (if only because that will be a bigger shitshow and it will take the focus off of him) and he is guaranteed to win the first debate (for the horserace narrative and the curse of low expectations). OTOH, the last three days.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:40
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Arrgytehpirate posted:I looked up the tank incident and holy gently caress Turns out one of the campaign staff saw himself in the mirror with a similar getup and said "Jesus christ this looks terrible!" but the top brass pushed it through because they needed something to counter HW's fighterpilot thing. Dukakis was really, really committed to running a clean campaign. That really handicapped him before the tank moment. Re: concession talk. What happens if he doesn't concede? Does the GOP just en masse hold a press conference and say our candidate lost. What if he goes around saying he didn't lose, illegitimate election, I'm the people's president, etc.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:40
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A Trump concession speech, if it ever happened, would probably be something like 5 minutes of staying on script followed by re-litigating everything he's said since the primaries and everything we're about to hear in the next three months. " ... now let me tell you about Megyn Kelly and Fox News ..."
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Aug 4, 2016 16:40
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Feldegast42 posted:I think Trumps (poll) death has been greatly exaggerated -- the race is bound to tighten up during the Olympics (if only because that will be a bigger shitshow and it will take the focus off of him) and he is guaranteed to win the first debate (for the horserace narrative and the curse of low expectations). No one who isn't already voting for Trump is going to think he won any of the debates, if he even does debate.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:41
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emdash posted:don't forget that, in the first book, Perlstein discusses the influence of "talk radio" of the late 50s and early 60s as well. With the Fairness Doctrine gone in '87, Limbaugh and co. were freed to extrapolate the tradition of those predecessors. jesse goddamned helms got his big start on WRAL outta raleigh iirc, though maybe he started on a paper somewhere (not worth checking, the only good headache i ever got over him was waking up hung over the day after he died) he fought segregation hard and in the '60s called Chapel Hill the 'university of negroes and communists'
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Aug 4, 2016 16:41
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Feldegast42 posted:I think Trumps (poll) death has been greatly exaggerated -- the race is bound to tighten up during the Olympics (if only because that will be a bigger shitshow and it will take the focus off of him) and he is guaranteed to win the first debate (for the horserace narrative and the curse of low expectations). Trump himself will ruin the low expectations game. He already is. He's talking about how he's going to crush Crooked Hillary in the debates, how he can't wait for them.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:42
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mcmagic posted:As a rule of thumb, George W Bush's approval rating when he left office was 34%. That is probably Trump's floor. In 1964 LBJ got the largest share of the popular vote since 1820 (61.1%) and Goldwater got 38.5%. That was an election where the Democrats unironically won on the platform of "That guy will start loving World War 3, just because!" and people bought it. Trump probably can't lose as badly in the electoral college as Goldwater or Mondale, but he's within striking distance of the worst popular vote margin in 196 years. A guy can dream, anyway. 
sean10mm fucked around with this message at 16:44 on Aug 4, 2016 |
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Aug 4, 2016 16:42
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Actually he's been whining that they are on the same night as football games and people are wondering if he's already laying the groundwork for pulling out of them.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:43
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zoux posted:"Jesus would stone homos," let he who is without a bic take the first toke
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Aug 4, 2016 16:43
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zoux posted:Actually he's been whining that they are on the same night as football games and people are wondering if he's already laying the groundwork for pulling out of them. So here's a fun game to play: Will it be better for Trump's polls if he just chickens out of the debates, or if he goes on stage and does basically what he's been doing all week? Like, both are probably bad, but which is worse?
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Aug 4, 2016 16:46
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Is it dumb to call Trump's unfiltered stream of consciousness speeches Trump Trots? I was thinking along the lines of all the crazy stuff he says reminds me of Gish Gallops.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:46
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Feldegast42 posted:he is guaranteed to win the first debate (for the horserace narrative and the curse of low expectations). oh man do I disagree with this
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Aug 4, 2016 16:46
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Harrow posted:Will it be better for Trump's polls if he just chickens out of the debates, or if he goes on stage and does basically what he's been doing all week? Like, both are probably bad, but which is worse?
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Aug 4, 2016 16:47
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zoux posted:Actually he's been whining that they are on the same night as football games and people are wondering if he's already laying the groundwork for pulling out of them. He's doing both. He is very mysterious.
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Aug 4, 2016 16:47
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