USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

«‹›565 »

straight up brolic: Jan 31, 2007; After all, I was nice in ball,
Came to practice weed scented
Report card like the speed limit

CommieGIR posted:

Trump is kicking out people holding pocket Constitutions.

a perfect visual metaphor

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:00

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 23, 2024 21:54

Yinlock: Oct 22, 2008

CommieGIR posted:

Per CNN, Trump is kicking out people holding pocket Constitutions.

Which is ironic, given that used to be a Tea Party thing

I don't know why each new layer of pettiness surprises me, but it always does and it's delightful. So loving petty.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:00

Islam is the Lite Rock FM: Jul 27, 2007; by exmarx

Goatman Sacks posted:

Conveniently for him no matter how poorly he does he still won.

In January he'll show up to the inauguration and try and slip his hand under Hillary's as she's placing it on the book of Satan.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:01

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Solkanar512 posted:

That's why it's expressed as a percentage.

EDIT:

One model did this, the others were much less drastic.

Yeah, 538 is just a really volatile model with some weird poo poo going on.

PEC has been really stable for instance, but even it has drifted up to 70% and 85% for their two models after being 65 & 80% forever.

http://election.princeton.edu/

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:01

Luminous Obscurity: Jan 10, 2007; "The instrument you know as a piano was once called a pianoforte, because it can play both loud and quiet notes."

CommieGIR posted:

Per CNN, Trump is kicking out people holding pocket Constitutions.

Which is ironic, given that used to be a Tea Party thing

the constitution is now banned as dictated by our glorious leader! :godwin:

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:02

Mel Mudkiper: Jan 19, 2012; At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

BTW, funny story, one of my colleagues today was doing a lesson about the American two-party system, and he was gonna point out how the two sides never go beyond a 60/40% split because of how the electorate is structured and he had to change his lesson at the last second when he showed fivethirtyeight on the smart board.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:02

WampaLord: Jan 14, 2010

TVarmy posted:

I thought the Orlando shooting would turn it around for him, actually, until he went and showed he cared more about fomenting praise than mourning the victims.

Appreciate the congrats!

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:03

Zanzibar Ham: Mar 17, 2009; You giving me the cold shoulder? How cruel.; Grimey Drawer

I hope someone slams Trump with a good bible verse on TV. Then he'll start kicking out people with bibles.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:03

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

any way, here's the big story about why Obama and Clinton were right to allow Republicans space and not tie them to Trump en masse, even if that's what's true:

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/761306395232862208

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:04

turn it up TURN ME ON: Mar 19, 2012; In the Grim Darkness of the Future, there is only war.

...and delicious ice cream.

Mel Mudkiper posted:

BTW, funny story, one of my colleagues today was doing a lesson about the American two-party system, and he was gonna point out how the two sides never go beyond a 60/40% split because of how the electorate is structured and he had to change his lesson at the last second when he showed fivethirtyeight on the smart board.

Was Mondale/Reagan not even more than 60/40?

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:04

Mel Mudkiper: Jan 19, 2012; At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

*this morning*

Manafort: Ok Donald, today is the start of the new campaign. Stay focused, stay on message. Don't get sidetracked by distractions and think before you speak

*this evening*

Trump: Hey Paul, I threw out some people who were literally holding the constitution in the air

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:04

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

SquadronROE posted:

Was Mondale/Reagan not even more than 60/40?

58-40

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:04

Zeeman: May 8, 2007; Say WHAT?! You KNOW that post is wack, homie!

As soon as McCain's primary is over, I feel like he's going to go scorched earth on Trump

The irony of the "moral" voice of the GOP being the man that introduced Sarah Palin to the national stage is palpable, but he seems to be one of the few with the guts to actually stand up for something in the party

vvvv LBJ got 61% against Goldwater vvvv

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:05

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

SquadronROE posted:

Was Mondale/Reagan not even more than 60/40?

The biggest electoral landslide in history is like 58.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:05

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

zoux posted:

The biggest electoral landslide in history is like 58.

61.1% for LBJ vs. Goldwater's 38.4%. Unless you go back to 1820.

e: Nixon-McGovern was 60.7% vs. 37.5%.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:06

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

Zeeman posted:

As soon as McCain's primary is over, I feel like he's going to go scorched earth on Trump

The irony of the "moral" voice of the GOP being the man that introduced Sarah Palin to the national stage is palpable, but he seems to be one of the few with the guts to actually stand up for something in the party

61-35 and 60-37 in '64 and '72 respectively (in modern times)

FDR also won 60-37 in '38, and Hardding won 60-34 in '20.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:07

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:07

Seeric: Aug 18, 2011

Crain posted:

So claiming footage of outrageous things exist, when they clearly don't, is just like Trump's thing?

He did it with the "Muslims cheering 9/11" thing, he's doing it with this hostage payoff thing. Did he claim to see PP footage of crazy poo poo that wasn't in the release too?

Why does he keep doing this -

Never mind, keep trucking there Trump. Keep trucking.

He keeps doing it because form of rhetoric is aimed straight at people who desperately need to feel a sense of superiority and/or who are deeply afraid of feeling inferior. Every piece of nonsense he spews (and even the occasional fact) comes in the form of "This thing that happened, it was X-number or Y-number. It was a big deal, a very big deal so you remember. You're smart, of course you remember". By using this type of phrasing where he goes "I'm not entirely sure of the details, but you remember," he's implicitly saying that his audience is expected to remember the details and to not remember would mean failing to live up to Trump's expectations (and everyone knows what Trump thinks of losers).

As a result, you get people who go along with what he says so they can appear smart by telling everyone (including themselves) "I remember that!" rather than admitting that they don't actually know/remember and looking up information on their own because they are under the impression that being smart is a matter of knowing concrete, objective facts rather than a process of continually learning new things and challenging old ones. This also is what likely leads to the assumption that the media must be biased/wrong if it says something they disagree with because if they think it's already bad to simply not know something, they will think it's significantly worse to be outright wrong on something.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:07

Arsonist Daria: Feb 27, 2011; ^{Requiescat in pace.}

St. Dogbert posted:

In honour of the WWE Superstar winning his GOP primary this week, I would like to say that Donald Trump is basically 1994-2001 WCW re-written as a presidential candidate.

That's incredibly apt

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:07

A Winner is Jew: Feb 14, 2008; by exmarx

vyelkin posted:

There's not even a loving green blip for Trump winning.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:08

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

Mel Mudkiper posted:

*this morning*

Manafort: Ok Donald, today is the start of the new campaign. Stay focused, stay on message. Don't get sidetracked by distractions and think before you speak

*this evening*

Trump: Hey Paul, I threw out some people who were literally holding the constitution in the air

I like to think he yells "HEY PAUL" like his son did in that one biopic.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:09

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/761307667549810688

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:10

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Trump probably can't lose in one of those 49-1 state Electoral College sweeps because there are too many states with lower populations that are really loving red, but a historic popular vote blowout is definitely within reach if he keeps up this death spiral.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:10

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

My guess is Hillary's numbers will retreat abit. I think 8-9 seems possible, and that would be a massive defeat that would almost certainly imperil Republican control of congress.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:11

FAUXTON: Jun 2, 2005; spero che tu stia bene

zoux posted:

https://twitter.com/BenjySarlin/status/761307667549810688

Lol at this being drat near as bad as Mondale.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:11

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

Like even if Republicans had a more sane candidate, the Senate was in trouble for them; with Trump instead of having four or five seats to defend -- they're looking at having to defend maybe as many as 8 or 9 seats.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:12

Lemming: Apr 21, 2008

vyelkin posted:

Note that this is similar to 538's nowcast and almost always shows an overwhelming win at any given time.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:13

St. Dogbert: Mar 17, 2011

Lumberjack Bonanza posted:

That's incredibly apt

August 6, 2016 - Paul Manafort fired as Trump campaign manager, to be replaced by Vince Russo.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:14

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

Lemming posted:

Note that this is similar to 538's nowcast and almost always shows an overwhelming win at any given time.

The main difference is that it doesn't flop around nearly as much as 538's Now-Cast. It's been at 80% forever and just went up to 85%.

Their "random drift" is analogous to 538's Polls Only number, but it's also less flip-floppy over time and just went from 60% to 65% to 70% now.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:15

Mel Mudkiper: Jan 19, 2012; At this point, Mudman abruptly ends the conversation. He usually insists on the last word.

St. Dogbert posted:

August 6, 2016 - Paul Manafort fired as Trump campaign manager, to be replaced by Vince Russo.

lol if you think Vince Russo isn't already writing this campaign

SWERVE, it turns out his wife is an illegal immigrant!

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:15

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

Lemming posted:

Note that this is similar to 538's nowcast and almost always shows an overwhelming win at any given time.

the now cast is just a capture of the very moment. it's, in his own admission, not a good forecasting tool this far out

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:16

vyelkin: Jan 2, 2011

For the record, if you were to go to 538 and look at the Nowcast predictions for every state and give Trump only those states where 538 guarantees his victory (i.e. where their margin of error does not include even the slightest chance of a Democratic victory), this is the map you get:

If you do the reverse and give Clinton only the states where 538 guarantees her victory, this is the map you get:

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:16

Lemming: Apr 21, 2008

sean10mm posted:

The main difference is that it doesn't flop around nearly as much as 538's Now-Cast. It's been at 80% forever and just went up to 85%.

Their "random drift" is analogous to 538's Polls Only number, but it's also less flip-floppy over time and just went from 60% to 65% to 70% now.

I was referring to that image, specifically

This one

represents the 85% Bayesian model

Edit: lmao it just rocketed up in the time I copy/pasted it from the site, glorious

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:16

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Obama going off on this Iran "conspiracy"
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/761309856003399684

Also the GOP sure has a lot of balls accusing a president of secret illegal cash deals with Iran.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:17

sean10mm: Jun 29, 2005; It's a Mad, Mad, Mad, MAD-2R World

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

My guess is Hillary's numbers will retreat abit. I think 8-9 seems possible, and that would be a massive defeat that would almost certainly imperil Republican control of congress.

It's hard to compare to past awful campaigns because mindless party line voting is much stronger now than it was in 1984, 1972 or 1964... but Trump is also vastly more incompetent on all fronts than anybody we've seen by a huge margin.

Clinton "only" winning on the scale of Obama 2008 wouldn't stun me, but a this point neither would a 60-35 shithousing.

:iiam:

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:18

BI NOW GAY LATER: Jan 17, 2008; So people stop asking, the "Bi" in my username is a reference to my love for the two greatest collegiate sports programs in the world, the Virginia Tech Hokies and the Marshall Thundering Herd.

zoux posted:

Obama going off on this Iran "conspiracy"
https://twitter.com/ZekeJMiller/status/761309856003399684

Also the GOP sure has a lot of balls accusing a president of secret illegal cash deals with Iran.

did you miss ollie north talking about it last night?

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:18

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

BI NOW GAY LATER posted:

did you miss ollie north talking about it last night?

No i did not.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:19

turn it up TURN ME ON: Mar 19, 2012; In the Grim Darkness of the Future, there is only war.

...and delicious ice cream.

vyelkin posted:

For the record, if you were to go to 538 and look at the Nowcast predictions for every state and give Trump only those states where 538 guarantees his victory (i.e. where their margin of error does not include even the slightest chance of a Democratic victory), this is the map you get:

If you do the reverse and give Clinton only the states where 538 guarantees her victory, this is the map you get:

Lol at SC, MS, TX

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:19

illcendiary: Dec 4, 2005; Damn, this is good coffee.

Trump's campaign being a WCW storyline makes way too much sense. Like I'm having nWo red/white doublecross clusterfuck flashbacks when I look at the current state of the GOP.

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:19

Adbot: ADBOT LOVES YOU

# ? May 23, 2024 21:54

zoux: Apr 28, 2006

Other bullshit Obama is not putting up with today
https://twitter.com/ericawerner/status/761310719640043521

# ? Aug 4, 2016 22:20

The Something Awful Forums > Discussion > Debate & Discussion > USPOL August: Quoth The Donald, "Arzy more."

«‹›565 »