|
Radish posted:If polling continues like this what the hell do the GOP leaders do? They can't just let Trump make their party look like a joke, but it sounds like they have no real mechanism to make him stop talking while he's associated with them as their Presidential candidate. I bet the Never-Trumpers are feeling really smug about now. There's almost no way that Trump is enough of a disaster that it loses them the House. The Republican downticket will abandon ship and repudiate Trump before they let that happen. The Dems will likely barely squeak out Senate control alongside the Presidency, and we hope Hillary works well with the few months of vague control she'll have. Then the mid terms will probably give much stronger control of the House (dunno about the Senate) back to the Republicans and we'll be right back at it again.
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:32
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 12:41 |
|
|
That probably the best idea but the optics of the party not supporting the candidate they nominated have to be pretty bad. Personally I don't think the GOP is losing either house of congress but man Trump is making them look weak.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:32
|
|
|
Pakled posted:There's no way it's gonna last until election day, but god, that would be the best. I can't wait til my state turns blue. It...could. If Trump is polling at 0-1% among black voters and the not-insane Republicans jump ship she could absolutely win Georgia.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:33
|
|
|
Chin Strap posted:Y'all need to knock it off with the Now-cast on 538. Polls-plus is the only thing that matters. Didn't polls-only outperform polls-plus during the primary? The NowCast is definitely just for fun, though.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:35
|
|
|
theflyingorc posted:Didn't polls-only outperform polls-plus during the primary? Someone was saying (it might've been Nate, can't recall) that polls-plus outperforms polls-only the farther from the election you are, and the closer you get the more the two converge and become the same.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:36
|
|
|
Chin Strap posted:Y'all need to knock it off with the Now-cast on 538. Polls-plus is the only thing that matters. ok http://imgur.com/a/sS5Bx
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:37
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:Someone was saying (it might've been Nate, can't recall) that polls-plus outperforms polls-only the farther from the election you are, and the closer you get the more the two converge and become the same. Polls plus has some economic indicators and the convention bumps baked in which is why it never flipped to Trump. It knew Trump was going to get a bounce and didn't freak out like we did.  Likewise it's still a little cautious on Clinton.Polls plus also counts the economy as a 50/50 incumbent/challenger which right now means it pushes things just a little in Trump's favour because it doesn't have a "one candidate is crazy" algorithm.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:40
|
|
|
Yeah that's fine but GA is still solidly in the "not bloody likely" category.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:42
|
|
|
Hillary listens to Kendrick Lamar's King Kunta on loop every morning to pump her up while she's on the stairmaster.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:43
|
|
|
The only way we win Georgia and Arizona is if Trump continues at the level he was at on Monday for straight up the rest of the general and completely and utterly flames out in the debates to the point that they can't even say he did well based on low expectations, which we all know isn't going to happen, wishful thinking aside. The Republican voter base is too reprehensible and stupid to retreat from even Trump en masse, and he'll still pull 35-40% on election day regardless.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:45
|
|
|
I wouldn't get your hopes up about the senate or house flipping, or the death of the GOP guys. https://twitter.com/BillKristol/status/761529974788677632?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:46
|
|
|
Lightning Knight posted:The only way we win Georgia and Arizona is if Trump continues at the level he was at on Monday for straight up the rest of the general and completely and utterly flames out in the debates to the point that they can't even say he did well based on low expectations, which we all know isn't going to happen, wishful thinking aside. The Republican voter base is too reprehensible and stupid to retreat from even Trump en masse, and he'll still pull 35-40% on election day regardless. If Trump pulls less than 40% he losses Arizona and Georgia. Simple as that.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:47
|
|
|
A Winner is Jew posted:I wouldn't get your hopes up about the senate or house flipping guys. gently caress. Pack it in y'all, Trumps making a comeback
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:47
|
|
|
edrith posted:she likes ambient black metal because "it's soothing" Ironically enough, Trump's also pretty into Burzum.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:48
|
|
|
Shimrra Jamaane posted:If Trump pulls less than 40% he losses Arizona and Georgia. Simple as that. I mean, something like voter suppression or low Dem turnout in those states could negate that, I suppose. I dunno. If two weeks from now Georgia and Arizona are still polling that bad, then maybe. But I don't believe Trump will stay that low because there's that many people in this country that are that stupid and/or racist.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:50
|
|
|
Chin Strap posted:Y'all need to knock it off with the Now-cast on 538. Polls-plus is the only thing that matters. Polls-only was the model he used for 2012 actually 
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:52
|
|
|
Antti posted:Polls plus has some economic indicators and the convention bumps baked in which is why it never flipped to Trump. It knew Trump was going to get a bounce and didn't freak out like we did. I think that last part is why polls only is probably a bit better than polls plus. Trump is such an outlier I think he is going to throw off the scales.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:52
|
|
|
a pipe smoking dog posted:I think that last part is why polls only is probably a bit better than polls plus. Trump is such an outlier I think he is going to throw off the scales. A critical analysis of how polls connected to outcome for this race will be fascinating because we have no historical basis to build a model off of
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:54
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:Polls-only was the model he used for 2012 actually That's fine too. Just now-cast is dumb.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:54
|
|
|
Chin Strap posted:That's fine too. Just now-cast is dumb. Well yeah but its fun to ride the election coaster wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:55
|
|
|
I think it all depends on how far Trump collapses in the near future. GOP candidates rebuking him and the media giving up on the horse race this early is a big red flag that he's nearing the point of no return. A decent politician could turn things around from here, but Trump's reaction to pressure is to flip out and make things worse for himself, so I could see his death spiral get worse.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 19:59
|
|
|
Interesting https://twitter.com/aedwardslevy/status/761611705457713152 This may partly explain why that Latino poll in Florida only showed around 17% of hispanics supporting Trump, while in that other general poll of Florida he was getting around 30%.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:00
|
|
|
Radish posted:
Man, internal inquiries have always been the dumbest loving thing. "After a long investigation of myself I've determined that my reasoning is flawless and I cannot be punished lol suck it law". I know this is nothing new by a looooooong shot but it's still baffling that it's allowed.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:04
|
|
indeed.
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:Well yeah but its fun to ride the election coaster wheeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee I Want To Get Off Mr. Silver's Wild Ride
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:04
|
|
|
You know, if Wikileaks really did have anything else worthwhile they would release it right now. An october surprise won't do poo poo against a lead this strong, they would need to cut it down way earlier
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:05
|
|
|
theblackw0lf posted:Interesting Cuban ex-pats are such awful people that it makes Castro look better by comparison.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:05
|
|
|
axeil posted:I Want To Get Off Mr. Silver's Wild Ride This thread has shown me the two fanbases which care the most about politics are Seahawks and Eagles fans
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:06
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:This thread has shown me the two fanbases which care the most about politics are Seahawks and Eagles fans in the nowcast Louisiana goes Trump and Georgia doesn't and I don't want to live in a world where I admit that Atlanta has literally anything better about it than New Orleans
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:10
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:This thread has shown me the two fanbases which care the most about politics are Seahawks and Eagles fans Must be the bird gang 
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:11
|
|
|
Yinlock posted:Man, internal inquiries have always been the dumbest loving thing. "After a long investigation of myself I've determined that my reasoning is flawless and I cannot be punished lol suck it law". Actually internal investigations really hate cops and do their best to get them all fired, but they get foiled again and again because the cops are beyond reproach. Also CSI Agents do all the real detective work.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:11
|
|
|
A Winner is Jew posted:I wouldn't get your hopes up about the senate or house flipping, or the death of the GOP guys. Maybe it's a suicide note
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:12
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:You know, if Wikileaks really did have anything else worthwhile they would release it right now. If they actually had anything really really bad (like Hillary saying "Please kill person X on this day at this time") they'd probably want to release it like RIGHT before so the shock would hit her hardest. More likely they've got nothing
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:13
|
|
|
Mel Mudkiper posted:This thread has shown me the two fanbases which care the most about politics are Seahawks and Eagles fans Cheering for a Clinton victory is the only time Eagles fans are going to see something they cheer for win a national championship. 
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:16
|
|
|
site posted:Maybe it's a suicide note I hope not, that would mean he is now immortal.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:18
|
|
|
For anyone looking for a list of what Trump did this week, Hillary's twitter team has you covered: https://twitter.com/HillaryClinton/status/761643508054712320
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:31
|
|
|
BobTheJanitor posted:I hope not, that would mean he is now immortal. alternately, that there's a Ghost House/Ghost Senate he'd have to make dumb and wrong predictions about in the afterlife
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:33
|
|
|
StrixNebulosa posted:For anyone looking for a list of what Trump did this week, Hillary's twitter team has you covered: Well, when you put it like that, it does seem that this has been a rough week so far.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:33
|
|
|
Goatman Sacks posted:Cuban ex-pats are such awful people that it makes Castro look better by comparison. They're getting better. The younger generations don't get what the big deal is and think grandpa is being crazy, and some of the ex-pats are coming around to the normalization of relations. I've heard a couple at the church I go to say they didn't like it at first, but now they'd like to go see their homeland one last time.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:34
|
|
|
StrixNebulosa posted:For anyone looking for a list of what Trump did this week, Hillary's twitter team has you covered: I know she doesn't ACTUALLY write her own tweets, but preserving the fiction is a decent idea. Referring to yourself in the third person is a little weird. At least Madmarker thinks so.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:36
|
|
|
|
| # ? May 26, 2024 12:41 |
|
|
Cythereal posted:They're getting better. The younger generations don't get what the big deal is and think grandpa is being crazy, and some of the ex-pats are coming around to the normalization of relations. I've heard a couple at the church I go to say they didn't like it at first, but now they'd like to go see their homeland one last time. When your starting point is Orlando Bosch and Luis Posada, there's no way to go from up, really.
|
|
#
?
Aug 5, 2016 20:41
|
|
