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Dusty Baker 2 posted:Somebody opened a cat shelter in Aleppo and used the leftover money to make a playground. First reaction is that its a waste of important food during a siege of all things, then I realized this is probably the best therapists service in Aleppo right now. Isn't it great when sentimentality and logic comes together? Still, I got a fix idea...cats eats bugs why wouldnt they? Its much more natural diet for them then rice. Dig a hole, add a bucket of water, spoilt food, maybe a dead bird or two. Tell the kids to hunt down and catch some local vermin, maybe those tiny cockroaches or what have you. Cover it up, build an enclousure around it or shed the gently caress out of it with a cat door because let face it, gently caress bugs. Maybe the easiest best thing would be an abandoned basement, but since its a fix idea its probably a terrible one and there should be enough explosives around to take care of one dumb hole. (Nvrmind I suck cocks) Creating a potential source of dyssenteri and botulism in a siege with small impacted immunesystem must be the dumbest fix idea I ever had in my life. But it brings up a good point to why these cats are a good idea to have around to munch on vermin. They're basically theraputical janitors with a tail. 54.4 crowns fucked around with this message at 00:16 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Bartie posted:These videos are so disturbing to watch. They're edited like some sort of video game mashup between Command and Conquer and Battlefield. Wouldn't be surprised if that's an intentioanl effect to show their conflicts as exciting and enticing instead of spending months with barely any sleep or food dodging artillery and air attacks and pulling children out of rubble.
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Aug 5, 2016 22:41
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Friendly Humour posted:Just wait a couple of months. I'm honestly surprised that Aleppo still has cats because of that very reason. Stray cats and dogs tend to be the first to get ate after the food runs out.
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Aug 5, 2016 23:12
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It seems pointless to debate if Assad is good/bad but I haven't heard what a post Assad Syria looks like beyond some hand waving about moderates or elections. Are these actually 'moderate' groups or are they just saying what is needed to let US politicians pretend they are moderate? Do they have a real chance to bring stability to Syria? Are they less likely to massacre or oppress their opponents if in control? Is partition at all an option? Hopefully next year we have President Hillary but I'm less enthusiastic about her stated desire to escalate US involvement in Syria especially if we are resolutely anti-Assad and he still has plenty of outside support. How does that go anywhere except years more of conflict?
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Aug 5, 2016 23:26
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Radio Prune posted:More Aleppo footage This is all FSA, right? Or what's the umbrella term these days? Without context they look a lot like ISIS - unkempt neckbeards, finger pointing to heaven, white Arabic writing on black headbands, Allahu Ackbar shouts... How close are Rebels to ISIS theologically? Doctor Malaver fucked around with this message at 00:15 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 00:10
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FuzzySlippers posted:It seems pointless to debate if Assad is good/bad but I haven't heard what a post Assad Syria looks like beyond some hand waving about moderates or elections. Are these actually 'moderate' groups or are they just saying what is needed to let US politicians pretend they are moderate? Do they have a real chance to bring stability to Syria? Are they less likely to massacre or oppress their opponents if in control? Is partition at all an option? Some sort of partition or very loose federal system and dmz would be a best case scenario for Syria.
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Aug 6, 2016 00:26
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Two new Manbij maps for comparison:  https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/761513944368484352 quote:#Manbij Automatic bakery and El-Beta roundabout under SDF control. Looks like the prison on the west side of the city was liberated, and it wasn't just ISIL guys holed up in there: https://twitter.com/kovandire/status/761435184780681216 quote:#manbij https://twitter.com/DrPartizan_/status/761294586513874944 quote:#Manbij This man was an ISIS prisoner for almost 2 years, now with the SDF and will be sent to a medical centre.  Two maps for the south Aleppo area to compare:   Once again, thanks very much to Radio Prune for collecting videos from Aleppo together in one place.
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Aug 6, 2016 00:28
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https://youtu.be/pWFzAR92DfU - graphic video of JFS stormtroopers assaulting the Artillery Academy https://youtu.be/3mEF3ForwOk - Fastaqem Union footage from Ramouseh https://youtu.be/OXbZDX4FSZE - 2 https://youtu.be/UcWp7ui6JGY - 3 (volume warning in the last third) Doctor Malaver posted:This is all FSA, right? Or what's the umbrella term these days? Without context they look a lot like ISIS - unkempt neckbeards, finger pointing to heaven, white Arabic writing on black headbands, Allahu Ackbar shouts... How close are Rebels to ISIS theologically? The Aleppo operation has members from basically every part of the spectrum taking part and working together. Maybe not in those videos in particular, but there's a large number of FSA fighters taking part on various fronts. As for your second question it's impossible to answer as "Rebels" as you've used it basically means every non-ISIS faction fighting the government and its allies. Factions that range from Literally al Qaeda (Jabhat al-Nusra, now rebranded to Jabhat Fateh al-Sham [JFS]) and varying brands of Salafists, through a huuuuge spectrum of "Islamists" of all stripes, to pro-democracy groups (not to say many of the more mainstream aforementioned Islamists dont believe in a democratic Syria of some sort) under the control of local civilian councils.
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Aug 6, 2016 00:42
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Doctor Malaver posted:This is all FSA, right? Or what's the umbrella term these days? Without context they look a lot like ISIS - unkempt neckbeards, finger pointing to heaven, white Arabic writing on black headbands, Allahu Ackbar shouts... How close are Rebels to ISIS theologically? As far as I know the main driving force are the groups aligned under Fatah Haleb (Aleppo Conquest). I made a chart a while ago that details who all is in Fatah Haleb but I have no idea as to the accuracy of it as it's been several months since I made it.  e: never actually finished the chart, btw, so like I said it's not entirely accurate. It's more to give an idea as to which groups were loosely affiliated there. Dusty Baker 2 fucked around with this message at 00:54 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 00:52
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Volkerball posted:As we inch ever closer to the one year anniversary of the implementation of the Iran deal, polls are starting to give us a sense of what its legacy will be inside Iran. This is the article all of this polling information is from. so basicaly, the hardliners took the money and are trying to go back to the power they had before poo poo got bad. I am starting to believe we should have helped the green protests/revolution. hopefully they will clearly break the deal and all the sanctions(and even more) go back in place again. FuzzySlippers posted:It seems pointless to debate if Assad is good/bad but I haven't heard what a post Assad Syria looks like beyond some hand waving about moderates or elections. Are these actually 'moderate' groups or are they just saying what is needed to let US politicians pretend they are moderate? Do they have a real chance to bring stability to Syria? Are they less likely to massacre or oppress their opponents if in control? Is partition at all an option? I honestly believe their is no way to genuinely de-escalate the fighting at this point because all the sides are basically fighting for survival. if assad loses, he and his family will (rightfully) be butchard in the street, if he wins he will scourge the country. same with all the other groups. not to mention the various Kurdish groups. even if assad and his kin get killed. the rebels will probaly turn on each other and the kurds will probaly take a decent amount of terrytory and fight anyone who attacks them. there is no happy or good ending.
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Aug 6, 2016 01:32
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Dusty Baker 2 posted:As far as I know the main driving force are the groups aligned under Fatah Haleb (Aleppo Conquest). I made a chart a while ago that details who all is in Fatah Haleb but I have no idea as to the accuracy of it as it's been several months since I made it. From what I have seen over twitter and the news, Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam seem to be providing most of the manpower from the offensive coming from the SW. ---------------- Ultimately, you want to talk about the opposition, it could hundred plus groups at this point, some of them are moderate, many of them (especially some of them with significant manpower) are Islamist or Salafist. Also, it depends on what front you are talking about, in the south the opposition is much more moderate while in the NW the opposition has much more of a hard-line Islamist foundation (not always but in general). As for what peace would look like, it is difficult to say especially since I haven't heard of a good way of a transition of power to happen. Presumably, if US airstrikes happened, the shoe would be generally on the other foot and the relatively areas under government control would in turn be put under siege by opposition forces. While a de facto partition may eventually happen after each side grounds each under to a nub, at best you probably are going to get is a negotiated ceasefire but otherwise the country and its population is way too embittered against each other for it to stay under a single government unless ends up one side finally smashes the other side into dust.
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Aug 6, 2016 01:49
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Ardennes posted:From what I have seen over twitter and the news, Ahrar al-Sham and Jaysh al-Islam seem to be providing most of the manpower from the offensive coming from the SW. It's Ahrar and JaN primarily, but following the announcement of JaN's break with AQ, basically every group has stopped squabbling and united to break the siege in Aleppo. And as we saw in Idlib, when all the jihadist aligned groups put all their combined strength together and go punch for punch with the regime, the regime hasn't stopped them yet, even with airstrikes. The fun thing is that as a result of this, it's going to be AQ aligned groups who get to wear the goodwill of breaking the siege on Aleppo, since they are the driving force behind it. And we'll continue to see more islamists and jihadist groups gaining influence, and people will say "hmmm, the opposition seems too extremist, so I don't think we should be doing anything to stop the genocidal dictator there," without realizing the self-fulfilling prophecy that has repeated itself over and over all over the country for the last 5 years. Sitting back and wringing our hands instead of acting has only empowered the types of groups people are so concerned about.
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Aug 6, 2016 03:48
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Young Freud posted:I'm honestly surprised that Aleppo still has cats because of that very reason. Stray cats and dogs tend to be the first to get ate after the food runs out. The siege has only been on for a week or two. Sieges tend to take a good few months for the situation to get dire enough for the videos of people eating grass and things like that start popping up.
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Aug 6, 2016 03:51
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Volkerball posted:The siege has only been on for a week or two. Sieges tend to take a good few months for the situation to get dire enough for the videos of people eating grass and things like that start popping up. I though this wasn't the first time Aleppo had fallen under siege.
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Aug 6, 2016 04:11
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Young Freud posted:I though this wasn't the first time Aleppo had fallen under siege. It isn't, but that one didn't last too long either. I remember it being a humanitarian crisis, but I don't remember it being anything like yarmouk or madaya.
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Aug 6, 2016 04:22
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I haven't followed the Iran deal too closely but is the US genuinely not holding up their end or is that hardliner propaganda?
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Aug 6, 2016 04:31
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Huh. Manbij opposition is collapsing in the last week. At this rate, they'll be confined to a few city blocks by next weekend. Gotta say, Daesh may be a lovely organization, but they're positively tick-like in their ability to dig in. Hopefully the eastern salient collapses first; they'd probably like to have the highway completely clear for logistics.
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Aug 6, 2016 04:39
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So what do they do after Manbij? Al Bab? Or are they gonna resume their march on eastern Syria territory?
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Aug 6, 2016 04:56
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If you guys are interested in the fighting in Aleppo, I encourage you all to check out the Syria Live UA map with satellite view. It's bananas how many updates there have been in the last couple days — http://syria.liveuamap.com
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Aug 6, 2016 05:22
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Cocoa Ninja posted:If you guys are interested in the fighting in Aleppo, I encourage you all to check out the Syria Live UA map with satellite view. please don't encourage Caro copycats
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Aug 6, 2016 06:28
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SSNeoman posted:So what do they do after Manbij? Al Bab? Or are they gonna resume their march on eastern Syria territory? That's a good question. I see two options: linking the cantons via Al Bab or closing off the northern resupply at Jarabulus. I can't see Raqqa or Mosul being more important than those two objectives.
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Aug 6, 2016 07:26
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Aliquid posted:That's a good question. I see two options: linking the cantons via Al Bab or closing off the northern resupply at Jarabulus. I can't see Raqqa or Mosul being more important than those two objectives. Both will trigger Erdogan, but al Bab might be seen as less directly provocative, and still accomplish the goal of cutting off supply routes. Or at least make them more hazardous to use.
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Aug 6, 2016 08:07
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Pro-Assad types now saying the artillery college in Aleppo is lost, despite them all claiming last night the attack had been pushed back https://twitter.com/IvanSidorenko1/status/761825940833984512 https://twitter.com/leithfadel/status/761824521913507841
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Aug 6, 2016 08:38
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https://twitter.com/Mr_Ghostly/status/761844869119680512
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Aug 6, 2016 09:46
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1stGear posted:I haven't followed the Iran deal too closely but is the US genuinely not holding up their end or is that hardliner propaganda? There are a few cases that revolve around Congress where Republicans are definitely trying to shoot the deal in the foot. A prime example of this would be the recent Boeing deal, which Republicans are trying to block. They can't because they don't have the presidency, but just the fact that they are trying adds unwelcome uncertainty when it comes to making a decision like investing billions in Iran. That said, foreign investment, and the economic outlook in general, have both been seen substantial increases since the deal. http://www.al-monitor.com/pulse/originals/2016/07/iran-foreign-direct-investment-fdi-post-jcpoa. The perception however, is that there has not been. That Rouhani is backing off of supporting the deal despite all this just illustrates the clever game of good cop bad cop he was playing with Khamenei. Integrating Iran into the Western world was never on the table. The government is wholly dependent on presenting itself as the protector against the West. If that dynamic disappears, then it's only a matter of time before there's civil unrest as people start to demand the type of reforms that a totalitarian government is inherently incapable of providing.
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Aug 6, 2016 14:25
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Volkerball posted:The siege has only been on for a week or two. Sieges tend to take a good few months for the situation to get dire enough for the videos of people eating grass and things like that start popping up. whart i always wonder is how they get their food? where does the meat come from? how is there still agriculture functioning and transporting goods to Aleppo? That there's still a modicum of food and medical supplies in those urban centers is mindblowing to me.
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Aug 6, 2016 14:51
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Mans posted:whart i always wonder is how they get their food? where does the meat come from? how is there still agriculture functioning and transporting goods to Aleppo? Mostly through trading and smuggling facilitated by independent businessmen, syrian activists, and NGO's. Obviously, there's a lot of situations, especially when it comes to medical equipment, and basic necessities in places under siege, where people want for things. But all in all it does seem kind of surprising how society still seems to function in the midst of the war. It's really fascinating to read about. Back when the war began, the FSA was getting a huge chunk of their military supplies from what they purchased from corrupt figures in the army. That's a representative story of how things have continued on throughout the war. Oil workers who worked all through ISIS conquering their workplace, then ISIS being pushed out and a new group coming in, and the work just continues on regardless of what happened. Regardless of side, trade and other things go on as they always have. You have people travelling back and forth between Raqqa and Damascus to buy and sell things. And you have aid purposed for besieged areas in rebel held territory being seized and then sold by the regime in their territory. People and fighting groups are dependent on their enemies to maintain the fight, and their basic needs. Which I suppose is an inevitable side effect of a civil war as long and as stagnant as this one.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:05
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Brown Moses posted:Pro-Assad types now saying the artillery college in Aleppo is lost, despite them all claiming last night the attack had been pushed back I'm going to take a moment to explain the Artillery Academy thing here for people who would like to know. The regime supply line into Aleppo used to run through the South and was defended by a series of long standing military bases of which the Artillery Academy was the southern and Eastern most. These bases serve as depots for the checkpoints and defensive positions facing inward while acting as redoubts support positions against attacks toward the supply line. The Regimes Russian/Iranian backed assault last Fall which pushed the rebels back south of Aleppo had a side effect of securing the Artillery Academy against outward attacks. Since then the rebel counter offensive has taken back some territory south of Aleppo which, while it didn't directly threaten the artillery academy did give them a launching pad for this latest attack. The regime meanwhile launched a heavy attack in Northern Aleppo that over the course of a month, form the End of June to the end of July that pushed forward and managed to cut the Rebel supply route into the city in the North, which followed the Castello road. With this cut, rebel areas of east and south Aleppo were now under siege. In response a massive attack in south Aleppo was launched with the name of resupplying the cut off section of Aleppo. Over the last week they've launched a series of attacks under heavy air and artillery bombardment that first captured the remaining territory South of the Artillery base and, since yesterday have over run a large portion of the base. Attacks from inside the city are also ongoing to help break the final regime defenses. Realistically the fall of the artillery base is a huge blow to the regime as it will likely cause an inversion of the situation. Regime supplies into Aleppo must flow through a narrow open corridor in the North while rebel supplies flow through a densely built up area in the south, especially if the rebels are able to take out the Industrial areas east of the artillery base now that they've lost their most direct support. The rebels victory did not come cheaply as even if you ignore overblown regime reports of losses, rebel reports push their casualties into the hundreds, however in doing so they've taken out what should have been one of the most heavily defended positions in Aleppo. As I finished typing this the rebels have announced they've lifted the siege of Aleppo. The regime has a very small window in which they must act to recover the situation or it could continue to snowball. farraday fucked around with this message at 15:15 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 15:11
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https://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/761927273679360001 https://twitter.com/iyad_elbaghdadi/status/761927568673103872 What a world we live in where loving al-Qaeda can get the moral high ground on anything at all, ever.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:13
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Will the SDF be able to do anything besides recoup their losses after Manbij finally falls?
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Aug 6, 2016 15:19
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Will the SDF be able to do anything besides recoup their losses after Manbij finally falls? It's very likely they will be able to advance, if in a more limited fashion than the initial explosive advances of the Manbij offensive. Coalition airpower has been almost exclusively focused on Manbij and its fall allows for re-targetting. It should also not be underestimated how important winning a battle is for general morale and recruitment.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:24
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farraday posted:As I finished typing this the rebels have announced they've lifted the siege of Aleppo. The regime has a very small window in which they must act to recover the situation or it could continue to snowball. How likely is an encirclement of Assad forces then? If the north is easier to take and close the pocket. Or is it not possible to hold due to being exposed to air strikes unlike the city itself?
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Aug 6, 2016 15:24
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Young Freud posted:I'm honestly surprised that Aleppo still has cats because of that very reason. Stray cats and dogs tend to be the first to get ate after the food runs out. Conditions in (Loyalist) West Alleppo arent that bad. As far as food, there is some food from west Aleppo going to east Aleppo via citizen to citizen stuff. Rebel held East Aleppos population is down to a medium 5 digit number because most people fled. Assad is paying wages for state employees /pensions etc. including for rebel territories (not paying these wages and pensions would drive inhabitants of the areas into the hands of whoever controls the territory, and this would be dumb. Assad is not an idiot.) this money often represents some kind of financial lifeline. Now, due to Syrias severe economic issues, these pensions arent worth that much, but they do help in making survival possible. FuzzySlippers posted:It seems pointless to debate if Assad is good/bad but I haven't heard what a post Assad Syria looks like beyond some hand waving about moderates or elections. Are these actually 'moderate' groups or are they just saying what is needed to let US politicians pretend they are moderate? Do they have a real chance to bring stability to Syria? Are they less likely to massacre or oppress their opponents if in control? Is partition at all an option? SDF is a moderate group, they arent fighting Assad (at the moment) though. "Pet moderates" are in use by all major sides of the conflict, including at at least one time the Assad loyalists (some "FSA" defected back to Assad, but pretended they didnt and still got US aid). There are major differences in how the various main faction treat their "moderate pets". SDF actually treats them as junior coalition members, Nusrah and loyalist shake them down for lunch money (while leaving them some, lest the lunch money giver wisens up to the act), and ISIS flat out hits them in the face, takes all their recently gained stuff and then says "be happy we didnt kill you, now beg the Americans for more support! If we cant capture weapons from you we take your wives instead.". ISIS approach is pretty effective for them. And well, for certain elements in the "Friends of Syria", getting ISIS more weapons is a feature not a bug.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:27
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Volkerball posted:https://twitter.com/THE_47th/status/761927273679360001 American troops working as the shock troops for a government run by these guys sure sounds like a wonderful plan.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:28
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Nitrousoxide posted:How likely is an encirclement of Assad forces then? If the north is easier to take and close the pocket. They're going to have to establish the current corridor first, but we'll see. The regime losing possibly the most fortified military institution in the city certainly doesn't bode well, but it also came at a cost. Things will either continue to snowball or they'll go stagnant again.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:29
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Panzeh posted:American troops working as the shock troops for a government run by these guys sure sounds like a wonderful plan. Do even you know what you're talking about anymore?
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Aug 6, 2016 15:34
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Nitrousoxide posted:How likely is an encirclement of Assad forces then? If the north is easier to take and close the pocket. It is possible but not entirely likely. The rebels lost everything on the inside west of Shiek Maqsud, which is the Kurdish district. they are under attack at Handrat camp which is their most exposed position north of the city. they may be able to hold it, but attacking from ti would be iffy at best. As you say attacking east toward the mallah farms they lost is attacking into a mostly open area which is incredibly dangerous. All that being said, with the supply line in the south, they don't need to reestablish the supply line in the north they just need to cut the regime's supply line. They can do that by pushing into the Industrial areas of Larymoun and then the residential area of Bani Zaid. This would not be easy in any sense, but could be effective. Even if they did so it seems likely to me that the kurds in sheik maqsoud might allow supplies to flow through their district into the regime areas, but the open roads north of them that are so dangerous to attack into are great fodder for ATGMs. the regime needs to push the rebels further back in the north to prevent atgm sniping of any supplies moving into the city along that route.
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Aug 6, 2016 15:35
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https://youtu.be/reBAuTkzeIM https://youtu.be/BfGZnRs9rQA - another video of JFS stormtroopers assaulting the Academy yesterday https://youtu.be/p1H-8KqyTKg - inside the Artillery Academy It took Assad, his militias, his airforce, the IRGC, Hezbollah, IRGC militias and massive Russian artillery and air support a month (or several months depending how you look at it) to impose the siege. The rebel coalition broke it in a week. Radio Prune fucked around with this message at 16:11 on Aug 6, 2016 |
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Aug 6, 2016 16:01
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HSD1d-6P6qI
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Aug 6, 2016 16:18
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Volkerball posted:Do even you know what you're talking about anymore? I think he means that our mideast allies tend to use the American military for their own selfish ends. Therefore if we were to make nice and help out these guys, we'd just have yet another disgusting dictatorship dragging Washington into regional wars.
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Aug 6, 2016 16:41
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