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Tatum Girlparts posted:Trump's worst moments, from this past couple weeks alone, include insulting the parents of a man who died serving his country and implying by making a poo poo ton of money he 'sacrificed' for his country too. From this campaign alone include him saying he'd ban an entire faith from immigrating to the country, calling an entire country's immigrant's rapists, mocking a disabled man's disability, encouraging his fans to beat up protesters, and generally running on a platform of pure white nationalism. Don't forget calling on a hostile-ish foreign power to hack his political rivals! Edit: Or starting a feud with a baby! Edit2: Also can't forget asking why we can't just nuke our enemies! Edit3: Suggesting that we turn NATO into a protection racket should also be noted! Random Asshole fucked around with this message at 06:49 on Aug 7, 2016 |
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Aug 7, 2016 06:43
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There's the e-mail controversy, which to the GOPers and some almost-moderates would be equivalent to Trump physically attacking a baby instead of just verbally attacking one
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Aug 7, 2016 06:44
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And if you'd be there then you'd know that that baby had it coming, that baby was a real piece of work
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Aug 7, 2016 06:45
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His point is that she is susceptible to a scandal taking her down. It's conceivable that it could happen.
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Aug 7, 2016 06:54
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QuarkJets posted:And if you'd be there then you'd know that that baby had it coming, that baby was a real piece of work Nobody can argue that he could have just reasoned with that baby. Seriously though, even though most of his gently caress ups are worse in severity, morality, humanity, or virtually any other metric, the fact that he's actually beefing with a baby is just the perfect encapsulation of his whole drat existence.
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Aug 7, 2016 06:56
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iospace posted:So, for those of you who are still wondering if the GOP will replace Trump (or he drops out), here's the drop out dates: https://ballotpedia.org/State_laws_...eneral_election Thought I'd go through and highlight the ones that are already past the point of no return as of today: Delaware posted:By 12:00 p.m. on the Tuesday following the convention or September 15 of the election year, whichever is earlier Michigan posted:"Within one business day after the conclusion of the party's state convention or national convention (whichever is later)" Montana posted:August 24, 2016, according to an email response from MT SOS. New Jersey posted:Within one week of party's national convention North Carolina posted:The NC SOS informed Ballotpedia by email that the state does not officially have a deadline but requests that major political parties submit the names of their nominees by the first Friday in August, per NC G.S. 163-209(a). South Dakota posted:Within three days of the convention and no later than the second Tuesday in August West Virginia posted:Within 15 days of the party's national convention, according to an email response from the WV SOS. States whose situations are "Unclear" are as follows: Arizona Arkansas California Connecticut Illinois Kansas Maryland Nebraska New Hampshire New Mexico New York Oklahoma Pennsylvania Tennessee (Complicated; absence of regulations may instead mean absence of deadline) Wyoming If Trump remained on the ballot in the states whose deadline has already passed, that's 66 EC votes. The status of the other listed states is also obviously in question, but adds up to 199. Potentially - extremely unlikely but potentially - meaning 265 EC votes would be out of play for the GOP. So they could still theoretically win  The article does note however that both courts and officials typically err on the side of waiving deadlines to ensure there is more than one option on the ballot, but it seems that has never gone above the state level. I would expect that all, or almost all, states would work to accommodate the changes as long as it is realistically feasible to do so but we really only need one state to refuse or for the questions over the status in an Unclear state to not be rapidly resolved and we could have a bona fide clusterfuck on our hands.In short, on paper it's problematic, in theory still doable, but in practice a massive headache. First half of August is probably the last chance to do it with anything resembling cleanliness (and also if there's any chance their new boy has to revive the Republican's chances it's by making the change ASAP). But Trump ain't jumping and the GOP wouldn't push him until it's far later in the game, and then it really does become impossible to see how it can be done, from a practical perspective if nothing else.
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Aug 7, 2016 06:58
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CelestialScribe posted:His point is that she is susceptible to a scandal taking her down. It's conceivable that it could happen. I'd love to see what would happen if Hillary spent a whole week feuding with grieving war veteran parents, fire marshals, and an actual baby
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Aug 7, 2016 06:59
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CelestialScribe posted:His point is that she is susceptible to a scandal taking her down. It's conceivable that it could happen. It's also conceivable that I won't take a dump tomorrow.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:07
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Dork457 posted:
The thing that's nice about this representation is that it shows that the important states are the tipover states, not necessarily the close states.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:08
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On NPR earlier I heard a wonderful interview with an editor of the Daily Caller (an alt-right news site) who responded to the host's assertion that Muslim Americans can be as loyal and patriotic as any other American with statistics about how Muslims are underrepresented in the US military compared to their share of the population while white people are overrepresented. I was so mad that the host didn't press him on that.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:12
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Pakled posted:On NPR earlier I heard a wonderful interview with an editor of the Daily Caller (an alt-right news site) who responded to the host's assertion that Muslim Americans can be as loyal and patriotic as any other American with statistics about how Muslims are underrepresented in the US military compared to their share of the population while white people are overrepresented. I was so mad that the host didn't press him on that. Heard that episode of On the Media as well - truth be told, I'm surprised the editor was pushed THAT hard.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:13
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DemeaninDemon posted:It's also conceivable that I won't take a dump tomorrow. Make light of this all you want. It's a possibility. If Wikileaks does in fact have something damaging, it's not ridiculous.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:14
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CelestialScribe posted:Make light of this all you want. It's a possibility. If Wikileaks does in fact have something damaging, it's not ridiculous. Just like all the other times wiki leaks had something damaging, makes u think
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Aug 7, 2016 07:19
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Tatum Girlparts posted:I would love to hear what 'worst' moments of hers are anywhere near Trump's worst. Like, do we mean polling because that's not true. Do we mean behavior because that's not true. Do we mean amount of implied incest thoughts because that super isn't true! When Clinton dropped in the polls right before the DNC; her favorable/unfavorables were matching Trump's.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:19
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CelestialScribe posted:Make light of this all you want. It's a possibility. If Wikileaks does in fact have something damaging, it's not ridiculous. Will you never be happy? It's clear that at this point, Hillary will win the election and you'll be going "but guys she only won with 380 EVs, what does this mean for 2020?  "You so desperately want to be Cassandra, but the difference is that she was right.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:25
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CelestialScribe posted:His point is that she is susceptible to a scandal taking her down. It's conceivable that it could happen. The thing is, building something complicated or obscure as a scandal would take a full news cycle to explain it. Trump would say something terrible before people became aware of it. It'd have to be a major scandal that's obviously wrong in headline form right before the election. The platonic ideal October Surprise. I doubt they have something that huge. I guess if Ivanka can talk her dad into listening to the campaign manager, a regular scandal could sink her, but I don't think Trump can handle that so long. He's didn't win the primary listening to analysts, and the crowds at the rallies love him, so maybe the media just isn't spreading his message enough? Better threaten to pull some press passes.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:27
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Never forget the double standard most Americans put on Democrats. Clinton was impeached for a blowjob but Bush wasn't for numerous war crimes and constantly lying to the American people.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:27
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CelestialScribe posted:Make light of this all you want. It's a possibility. If Wikileaks does in fact have something damaging, it's not ridiculous. Keep barking up that tree you crazy diamond.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:28
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CelestialScribe posted:Make light of this all you want. It's a possibility. If Wikileaks does in fact have something damaging, it's not ridiculous. It is likely that Hillary's campaign are sitting on some Trump bombshells already, that they will not reveal until the final week of the election (or, if someone else uncovers them first, they might try to beat them to the punch if they find out about it in time). I think this thread gives you too much poo poo. It is right to  about Trump merely from the fact that he is the GOP candidate and there is a non-zero chance of him being elected President. His Presidency could easily mean the end of modern civilization or permanently curtail its potential. Even a 1% chance of a win is too high.
Kilroy fucked around with this message at 07:33 on Aug 7, 2016 |
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Aug 7, 2016 07:30
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DemeaninDemon posted:Keep barking up that tree you crazy diamond. No, no, it's shine on you crazy diamond.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:30
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I think it's important that we don't get complacent. When we feel that victory is assured is when we can get hosed over the hardest. Like, I think Hillary has it in the bag but it's clear she and Trump are being measured against different standards. If Hillary ever did anything approaching Trump's daily behavior this race would probably be over.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:33
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Kit Walker posted:I think it's important that we don't get complacent. When we feel that victory is assured is when we can get hosed over the hardest. Like, I think Hillary has it in the bag but it's clear she and Trump are being measured against different standards. If Hillary ever did anything approaching Trump's daily behavior this race would probably be over. How can we get complacent? I'm voting for her regardless of what polls are, I can't vote extra hard for her because I'm worried. If anyone is dumb enough to not vote because they think she has it in the bag, they deserve to be yelled at, but pretty sure that no one here is like that.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:38
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Geoff Peterson posted:I've been seeing an interesting pushback against encryption advocacy lately, on the premise that it's too often suggested as a silver-bullet or hyped more aggressively than more fundamental and helpful elements of a protection strategy. In your analogy, some see it as advocating for entryway cameras as a major security upgrade when a staggering number of people don't have front doors... and many of those who have doors don't know they need locks. Sorry dude, but I've been putting up with a weak left my whole life and am not interested in backsliding. That tire fire some orange troll has lit in the GOP lot is sending moderate conservatives and centrist into the Democratic party, and I really don't want to deal with the inevitable calls to keep to the middle because of them. Hillary is fine, the platform is good, but the fight continues.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:41
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Kilroy posted:Yeah, it's a possibility, but even in the event that, for example, Wikileaks drops the HRC lesbian sex tape two days before the election, what you'd likely see is Hillary SuperPACs go negative on Trump with the fury of one thousand suns. And, since Trump has already forfeited a lot of airtime this election with Clinton basically running the table on it, there is not much he could do about it. Given the monetary, mechanical, and general competence advantage Hillary is going to have going into November, I wouldn't be too surprised if in the tail end of October she drops 20-50 ads targeted to different states and sub-state regions that highlight how much Trump sucks for them. Iowa's will of course have at least 2 instances of Trump calling them dumb, I wouldn't be surprised if at some point in history Trump talked on camera about how much coal sucks, and surely there are clips of him from his USFL days talking poo poo about various cities and likely sports teams. Which is aside from any particularly damaging info they've been sitting on in their opposition research files this whole time.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:42
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So what's Trump's path to win? Is the plan still to not give a poo poo about the Ohio + Florida + Virginia traditional way?
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Aug 7, 2016 07:45
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cheerfullydrab posted:So what's Trump's path to win? Is the plan still to not give a poo poo about the Ohio + Florida + Virginia traditional way? He basically has to win all the swing states. His actual plan is to funnel donations into his businesses in what amounts to a money laundering scheme and walk away laughing to the bank at the Republican Party.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:50
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cheerfullydrab posted:So what's Trump's path to win? Repeatedly claim he is winning, doubt any poll that doesn't have him winning by a lot, then Russia hacks some electronic voting booths on election day and adds him a ton of votes in four states. I guess.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:51
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Stereotype posted:Never forget the double standard most Americans put on Democrats.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:52
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Kavros posted:Repeatedly claim he is winning, doubt any poll that doesn't have him winning by a lot, then Russia hacks some electronic voting booths on election day and adds him a ton of votes in four states. How does that even work? Won't people notice if there are many more votes in a district then there are registered voters?
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Aug 7, 2016 07:55
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I see two pathways for this race, both of which should hopefully result in a Clinton win. The first is for a ridiculous blowout with greater than ten percent margin in the popular vote, which brings the Senate and at least brings the House into "very close" territory if not outright tie or majority. This is what I'm hoping for because the GOP deserves the strongest repudiation possible for being a silly crap party that picked Cheeto Hitler, it deserves to be blasted into oblivion and never be mentioned again without derisive laughter and head shaking. In this option, GOTV and ad blitzes are not strictly necessary to secure a win but serve to run up the score and maximize downticket gains. The second pathway is where the race more resembles one of Obama's campaigns, with polling within 5 points, a horse race narrative down until election day and everyone in the media coverage pretending Trump is some kind of plausible candidate for President and not a ridiculous shouting Cheeto. In this second pathway, voters largely default to their normal party affiliation despite the GOP candidate being a ridiculous Cheeto. In this option, superior organization and GOTV is necessary to assure a win and will serve to pad the polling margin an extra point or two in critical swing states, but will still result in an electoral win the magnitude of one of Obama's wins or greater. Unfortunately in this pathway the Senate may not even swing back and the House will remain firmly in GOP control.
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Aug 7, 2016 07:56
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Pakled posted:On NPR earlier I heard a wonderful interview with an editor of the Daily Caller (an alt-right news site) who responded to the host's assertion that Muslim Americans can be as loyal and patriotic as any other American with statistics about how Muslims are underrepresented in the US military compared to their share of the population while white people are overrepresented. I was so mad that the host didn't press him on that. Reminder. Nice Polite Repblicans.(regressives) The local public radio partnership stuff might be better/good, but it seems the national stuff seems to be just a step above for the rest of the joke news. Thjat's what happens when their not-commercial breaks always thank the Kochs.
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Aug 7, 2016 08:02
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Kit Walker posted:I think it's important that we don't get complacent. When we feel that victory is assured is when we can get hosed over the hardest. Like, I think Hillary has it in the bag but it's clear she and Trump are being measured against different standards. If Hillary ever did anything approaching Trump's daily behavior this race would probably be over.
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Aug 7, 2016 08:02
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Realistically, I don't think Democrats have even the remotest shot at taking the House, or even really making it all that close. Best case scenario, we're looking at Dems narrowing the lead to ~20 seats and even that's pretty pie-in-the-sky. If Trump's campaign continues to be an enormous disaster, we can expect to see more GOP donors give up on it and start funneling more funds to Congressional races to mitigate the damage Trump will do to downticket races.
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Aug 7, 2016 08:07
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Pakled posted:Realistically, I don't think Democrats have even the remotest shot at taking the House, or even really making it all that close. Best case scenario, we're looking at Dems narrowing the lead to ~20 seats and even that's pretty pie-in-the-sky. If Trump's campaign continues to be an enormous disaster, we can expect to see more GOP donors give up on it and start funneling more funds to Congressional races to mitigate the damage Trump will do to downticket races.
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Aug 7, 2016 08:13
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Apparently the baby's mother came forward today and said Trump was "obviously joking". I mean, that makes sense, a mother at the rally was probably a trump supporter on the first place, and less likely to see his behavior in an unflattering light. And video footage of the moment is still genuinely off-putting, which was the real point in the first place. But the "feuding with a baby" point is probably going to die off now. (in time for the next wave of ridiculousness)
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Aug 7, 2016 08:23
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cheerfullydrab posted:So what's Trump's path to win? Is the plan still to not give a poo poo about the Ohio + Florida + Virginia traditional way? Depends on what you mean by win. I believe that what Trump actually wants is to lose by a close enough margin that he can pretend the unstoppable Clinton Machine stole the election from him, so he can pretend he won but doesn't have to do any of that boring rear end President stuff. To win electorally, he either needs to find a time machine and go back to not only start a ground game but ensure Twitter is never created, or find a magic lamp. Nessus posted:Will that actually work in the face of a total Trumpendammerung? I mean, a discouraged voter will just stay home. I wouldn't expect to see the House retaken but I could see it getting drat close. Yeah, the only hope for Speaker Pelosi is that Trump is getting crushed for the month or so leading up to the election and all the Republicans stay home while Democrats vote as hard as they can for Hillary. The odds are only better in that Trump winning is buying the winning Powerball ticket and the Democrats taking the house is picking all but the Powerball number.
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Aug 7, 2016 08:29
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Lightning Knight posted:He basically has to win all the swing states. the Republican Party is what he's going to call the actual crazy party that he throws on some yacht and he'll bill the whole thing to the gop somehow
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Aug 7, 2016 08:34
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CelestialScribe posted:Make light of this all you want. It's a possibility. If Wikileaks does in fact have something damaging, it's not ridiculous. It already does with the whole money laundering thing DWS resigned over. You don't see it as much in DnD proper but that burned a LOT of good will for her. For a short wile Trump had even pulled ahead of her in the polls. It's possible, albeit unlikely, that in a few months people will forget Donald's current scandals just as something similarly damaging comes out giving Trump a decent shot at winning.
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Aug 7, 2016 08:43
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Candidate Trump has so far, off the top of my head, had news cycles of beef with
Donald Trump is a mess. Gyges fucked around with this message at 08:55 on Aug 7, 2016 |
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Aug 7, 2016 08:49
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readingatwork posted:It already does with the whole money laundering thing DWS resigned over. You don't see it as much in DnD proper but that burned a LOT of good will for her. For a short wile Trump had even pulled ahead of her in the polls. It's possible, albeit unlikely, that in a few months people will forget Donald's current scandals just as something similarly damaging comes out giving Trump a decent shot at winning. Not trolling. The only money thing I know of is the one where money went from state funds that didn't need it, through the DNC, to state funds that did. Was there an angle I missed there? Did (((DWS))) walk off with (((globalist banker bux))) or something?
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Aug 7, 2016 08:52
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