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First the building said "you gonna die tonight" and then after the guy took a picture of it it cried "you got me!"
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Aug 8, 2016 19:45
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Fabulous Knight posted:The "Who would win today" tracker is extremely pleasant to look at, but it is really just a reflection of who would probably win right here, right now, based on these numerous double digit leads Abuela constantly has. Polls only tracker is a bit more reliable, and yet I believe Polls plus is actually Silver's "main" model. That's the one I rely on the most, even if AZ and GA are nowhere close to flipping on that one and so the model is not as exciting. Clinton still has a 78% shot right now even in this model and Obama never had such a chance in 2012 this early. 538 is for funsies, http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-meta-analysis/ is more real life without any pundit-sauce in it
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Aug 8, 2016 19:46
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zoux posted:Before you get too hype, these are based solely on modelling, there hasn't been any polling done in SC this year. so it could actually be even worse for Trump, you're saying?
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Aug 8, 2016 19:48
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Night10194 posted:How's he doing with non-college educated women? Still worse than good old Binders? T+ 17 in today's Monmouth poll.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:49
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When Frank loving Luntz thinks you're too far to the right, you're way out in right field.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:50
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CommieGIR posted:The argument against the polling number is just another dellusion about the GOP's supposed silent majority that doesn't exist. It appears that they, in fact, do not surround us.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:51
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Radish posted:First the building said "you gonna die tonight" and then after the guy took a picture of it it cried "you got me!"
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Aug 8, 2016 19:52
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WhiskeyJuvenile posted:so it could actually be even worse for Trump, you're saying? As Bill Mitchell would say, without polling anything is possible!
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Aug 8, 2016 19:52
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Why does it actually matter what supreme court justices Clinton nominates? Republicans have no incentive to allow any of them through.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:53
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/SouthLoneStar/status/762355369855311873 Holy poo poo. Is it that hard to go on twitter and see how we actually talk nowadays? Like I haven't heard someone say "Black Power", or "gently caress Whitey" unironically like in my entire drat near 30 year old life. It's like that dude who spray painted "BLACKS RULEZ" on his drat driveway. Jesus Christ like at least put Black Lives Matter. Or gently caress 12. Honestly you could go with gently caress the Police and could probably get away with it. If you need a black person to create a convincing thing to spray paint on a church/house to blame black people for, I am more than willing to consult. More than willing to sell out my own race if you pay enough.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:53
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Well has Bill bothered to prove that Hillary isn't winning?
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Aug 8, 2016 19:53
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If everyone gets to do an Arzy now that the near future is looking brighter I’ll share what I think would happen if we really do live in a work of sadistic living fiction written by a cruel god averse to our notions of goodness and fairness: Donald Trump (who loses horribly in almost all none insane universes) will somehow cheat his way into the whitehouse. He only starts spending money in mid October and engages in an unprecedented and brazen dirty tricks campaign the likes of which we have never seen. His audience will be fully insulated extremists, a lot of them will be poll watchers, and what’s more: they feel cheated and they’ve cheated under less dire circumstances. They are primed to commit civil disobedience when he loses already, they really would start forming militias and doing third world poo poo if Trump won but with an asterix beside it and the democrats did anything other than roll over like they did in 2000 and 2004. He has seized the initiative on bitching about election results. He has everyone expecting that he’ll just lose and try to manipulate the loss into a pseudo-victory. If he were to somehow through intimidation, deceitful phone calls, “miscalibrated” voting machines installed by hardcore trump supporters, last minute voter purges and other 2004 shenanigans, overcome the greatest exit polling errors ever produced in a country that doesn’t just pretend to have democracy and slides his greasy spray tan slicked old rear end into a yooog golden throne in the oval office. Sane universes you don’t have this problem though because elections got a little harder to rig after 2004 and Donald Trump is a stupid clowndick who is even repulsive to the hounds of hell and can’t pull anything like that off. Thanks for reading my Arzy fanfic, don't read the wikipedia article on the 2004 election if you want to have a pleasant day, namaste.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:54
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Petr posted:Why does it actually matter what supreme court justices Clinton nominates? Republicans have no incentive to allow any of them through. (And the Senate is in play. Not a lock, but most definitely in play.) (And the tiebreaker is the Vice President.) (OPEN THE BLOOD GATES.) e: unless you meant "allow any of them through" the Senate Judiciary Committee, which I must confess I don't know poo poo about. e2: looked it up, it works like any other standing committee and so the seats on it will be assigned based on the party breakdown of the Senate as a whole, so with 50+tiebreaker... uh, I actually don't know how that'll work. Isn't there one old-school Republican who genuinely believes that the committee should rubber-stamp anyone qualified and kick it to the Senate? I have forgotten amid all the hubbub and it's obviously impossible to Google now. DACK FAYDEN fucked around with this message at 19:59 on Aug 8, 2016 |
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Aug 8, 2016 19:54
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they put BLM on the right but it's not as well done
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Aug 8, 2016 19:55
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/SouthLoneStar/status/762355369855311873 
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Aug 8, 2016 19:55
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Petr posted:Why does it actually matter what supreme court justices Clinton nominates? Republicans have no incentive to allow any of them through. Republicans are nowhere near as monolithic as you think. Not every member is Steve King.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:56
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Lemming posted:538 is for funsies, http://election.princeton.edu/history-of-meta-analysis/ is more real life without any pundit-sauce in it Is Drew Linzer doing anything this cycle? I remember his votamatic page doing pretty well in 2012. No, all the spray painted letters are facing the correct direction, so this is cut and dry. They even had the courtesy to sign "BLM"
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Aug 8, 2016 19:57
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https://twitter.com/justinjm1/status/762700873340518401
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Aug 8, 2016 19:57
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This election has been made into a national referendum on two ideas: Is a nation a business, or is citizenship about something more than the bottom line?
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Aug 8, 2016 19:57
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DACK FAYDEN posted:When Frank loving Luntz thinks you're too far to the right, you're way out in right field. I think I saw some attacks on Luntz a while back as him being an establishment RINO. He seems like a pretty mercenary guy so if the party isn't loyal to him, he doesn't have any reason to pull punches.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:57
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theflyingorc posted:they put BLM on the right but it's not as well done I think the hoser ran out of spray paint. My thoughts exactly.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:57
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'Strip-club stimulus' What a wonderful way to win over those college-educated women.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:58
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theflyingorc posted:they put BLM on the right but it's not as well done Haha I missed that. ok, 1/3 isn't bad. Though next time you probably wanna start with Black Lives Matter(spell it out like any normal Black person would tho) If you wanna get cute add a #.
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Aug 8, 2016 19:59
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/SouthLoneStar/status/762355369855311873 That church is in the exact same town that just raised the World's Largest Confederate Flag for context.
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Aug 8, 2016 20:00
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I swear like 90% of the time I see "BLM" instead of "Black Lives Matter" it's written by a horrible racist.
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Aug 8, 2016 20:00
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zoux posted:https://twitter.com/SouthLoneStar/status/762355369855311873 Not the first time http://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/man-vandalizes-truck-blames-black-lives-matter-article-1.2366871
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Aug 8, 2016 20:01
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yoctoontologist posted:I was messing around with election data a few weeks ago, and found that Mississippi and South Carolina consistently vary less from election to election than the rest of the country. (Alabama is different, in that it's actually been trending way more Republican relative to the rest of the country. I suspect this is because of northern Alabama, which isn't really part of the same cultural region as the rest of the Deep South.) yeah northern alabama is totally the same cultural region as the deep south. there's like 1 appalachian county in alabama
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Aug 8, 2016 20:03
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Aug 8, 2016 20:03
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The SC light blue is the same poo poo and Silver trendline adjustment we were kvetching about when Trump was up in the Nowcast. Fun pipe dream but little else barring full Trumpocalypse.
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Aug 8, 2016 20:05
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Pakled posted:I swear like 90% of the time I see "BLM" instead of "Black Lives Matter" it's written by a horrible racist. Black Lives literally aren't worth writing out an entire acronym to them.
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Aug 8, 2016 20:06
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My Imaginary GF posted:'Strip-club stimulus' Is this real? It seems fake.
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Aug 8, 2016 20:08
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Pakled posted:I swear like 90% of the time I see "BLM" instead of "Black Lives Matter" it's written by a horrible racist. the most confusing thing in the world was the Malheur thread, where there were both comparisons to Black Lives Matter and discussions about the behavior of the Bureau of Land Management
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Aug 8, 2016 20:09
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Casimir Radon posted:That sounds like something Jaden Smith would say.
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Aug 8, 2016 20:10
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weekly font posted:The SC light blue is the same poo poo and Silver trendline adjustment we were kvetching about when Trump was up in the Nowcast. Fun pipe dream but little else barring full Trumpocalypse. Except that Georgia is being polled blue and SC was only one point off Georgia in 2012, so it's actually not that crazy
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Aug 8, 2016 20:10
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https://twitter.com/natemcdermott/status/762726200691294209
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Aug 8, 2016 20:10
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Nevvy Z posted:Is this real? It seems fake. This is the thing about Trump. It's really goddamn hard to tell what may be satire and what he might have actually said.
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Aug 8, 2016 20:11
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Nevvy Z posted:Is this real? It seems fake. The clip is real, but it's just him misspeaking. I heard it listening to him earlier and thought "heh"
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Aug 8, 2016 20:12
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theflyingorc posted:Except that Georgia is being polled blue and SC was only one point off Georgia in 2012, so it's actually not that crazy the last time georgia went blue was in 1992, when ross perot split off enough republican votes for clinton to squeak past by 13k votes. (perot picked up 300k votes, mostly frustrated anti-government republicans) polls right now are one thing but as a lifelong georgian i highly doubt my state will go blue this year
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Aug 8, 2016 20:13
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Popular Thug Drink posted:the last time georgia went blue was in 1992, when ross perot split off enough republican votes for clinton to squeak past by 13k votes. (perot picked up 300k votes, mostly frustrated anti-government republicans) polls right now are one thing but as a lifelong georgian i highly doubt my state will go blue this year I'm skeptical, but that doesn't mean it's insane, just pretty unlikely
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Aug 8, 2016 20:15
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theflyingorc posted:I'm skeptical, but that doesn't mean it's insane, just pretty unlikely same. problem is that south carolina doesn't really have the same demographic push driving states to be more democrat - atlanta keeps growing as part of the nationwide trend of urbanization, and is attracting a lot of internal migrants (some white republicans, some black democrats) as well as immigrants who tend blue. south carolina is not doing that, and is remaining kind of stagnant for lack of a decent urban center when atlanta and north carolina are relatively close by for urban living and good jobs really south carolina is a more standard story of southern politics where there's a large white republican majority and a substantial but less large democrat minority split largely on race lines (white democrats tend to decamp from south carolina to neighboring states) so really the dynamic here if SC goes blue is increased black dem turnout in the face of discouraged, decreased white gop turnout in the meantime, georgia is gaining population rapidly and more of that population growth (but not all!) leans dem boner confessor fucked around with this message at 20:19 on Aug 8, 2016 |
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Aug 8, 2016 20:17
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