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The Rokstar posted:The nowcast on 538 really isn't a very valuable indicator for anything other than present trends. 78.3%? Well C's get degrees.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:03
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Geostomp posted:This is really depressing. The woman is clearly emotionally disturbed from her son's death and is just being used as an attack vector by whatever right wing hack thinks will get them attention.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:03
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Doctor Butts posted:So are SC roads shittier than Ohio/Michigan? It all comes down to super cheap gas. The tax on gas is 20-30 cents lower than NC and Georgia and that means there's no money to resurface the roads. Louisiana has better roads these days.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:04
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What *is* potentially causing SC to flip if it doesn't have the population trends like GA and NC do?
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Aug 9, 2016 01:04
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This election is like "larry klayman, roger stone and paul manafort; sa, the tigers who had been concealed in the bamboo have burst out onto the veranda"
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Aug 9, 2016 01:07
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Trabisnikof posted:Pretty sure this is going to be the high water mark. For Trump
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Aug 9, 2016 01:07
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Air is lava! posted:Okay, so he is a cartoon villain. That sounds like a cliche you'd say as hyperbole. Sued her for reimbursement for medical care provided to his maternal grandmother (i.e. his mom's mom.) So who knows how legit it was. Lote posted:Klayman V. Taitz must have been magical. I would've let that go on for as long as possible. It was technically against Judicial Watch, which Klayman founded and then left (not to be confused with Freedom Watch, his current Klayman won, proving that there really isn't any justice in this world.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:08
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The Rokstar posted:The nowcast on 538 really isn't a very valuable indicator for anything other than present trends. that may be but watch it keep going lower  
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Aug 9, 2016 01:19
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Raenir Salazar posted:What *is* potentially causing SC to flip if it doesn't have the population trends like GA and NC do? There's no polling in SC so it's all guesswork, but the conventional wisdom is that it's only slightly more red than GA, so any election in which GA is in play would make SC in play too.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:20
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Sword of Chomsky posted:I've been trying to explain the difference between Vilerat's Mother and Mr. Kahn to family, and I am making no ground. They see them as exactly the same, and wonder why the media didnt attack clinton the same way they came after Trump. Its disgustingly infuriating. What exactly do they (your family) think Clinton did? Because Clinton as far as I know hasn't trashed talked the mother, she just laughed off years of Republican nonsense. Harold Fjord fucked around with this message at 01:29 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 01:20
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Raenir Salazar posted:What *is* potentially causing SC to flip if it doesn't have the population trends like GA and NC do? It's showing up like that because nobody's bothered to poll SC but in 2012 it was only 1% different from the result in Georgia, so 538's model takes Georgia being up for Clinton and extrapolates a national trend that also puts South Carolina at the tipping point.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:23
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Spiffster posted:that may be but watch it keep going lower Look at Utah, cradled all around and from beneath by more progressive..."zesty" states. Go ahead and lower yourself into that pocket Utah. You know how you have wanted to do it.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:23
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Nevvy Z posted:What exactly does she think Clinton did? Because Clinton as far as I know hasn't trashed talked the mother, she just laughed off years of Republican nonsense. From the videos I've seen of her (which have gotten progressively worse as time went on), she's angry that Hillary told her something about a youtube video, the State department not considering her "immediate family" (which is something quite odd but haven't found any details on), and that no one has been able to tell her if some bloody hand prints on the walls of the consulate belonged to Vilerat or not.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:25
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SedanChair posted:Look at Utah, cradled all around and from beneath by more progressive..."zesty" states. Go ahead and lower yourself into that pocket Utah. You know how you have wanted to do it. I wish Indiana would listen to everyone around it except for Kentucky... Indiana isn't exactly pollsters #1 priority but come on man seeing the crossroads go blue again would be amazing.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:26
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Nevvy Z posted:What exactly does she think Clinton did? Because Clinton as far as I know hasn't trashed talked the mother, she just laughed off years of Republican nonsense. Vilerats mom was a crazy neocon before Benghazi. So you can imagine how she feels now.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:27
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:Vilerats mom was a crazy neocon before Benghazi. So you can imagine how she feels now. Its kind of funny when you read the OP of the crazy family email thread and realize the "secret family member" is his mom
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Aug 9, 2016 01:30
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Btw, are embassies/consulates normally supposed to be in top secret locations that nobody's supposed to know about?
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Aug 9, 2016 01:35
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Memnaelar posted:Conversely, I'm sad that Rhode Island is so insignificant that his campaign bus probably wouldn't have to stop there. Maybe Bloody Sock Schilling but not Bloated Racist Schilling.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:38
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Mr Interweb posted:From the videos I've seen of her (which have gotten progressively worse as time went on), she's angry that Hillary told her something about a youtube video, the State department not considering her "immediate family" (which is something quite odd but haven't found any details on), and that no one has been able to tell her if some bloody hand prints on the walls of the consulate belonged to Vilerat or not. The immediate family list is provided by the employee. As stated above, you can tell why she wasn't considered one. Mr Interweb posted:Btw, are embassies/consulates normally supposed to be in top secret locations that nobody's supposed to know about? The consulate wasn't, the CIA annex nearby was.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:39
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Also, according to Vilerat's mom, Hillary called her a liar.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:42
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If we're gleefully posting nowcast stuff, here's my favorite:
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Aug 9, 2016 01:51
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Filthy Hans posted:I couldn't find any sort of site or utility that gives a total probability based on up-to-date polling, and the top google hits are mostly articles several months old. The best I could come up with is an market-based predictor site that's like Intrade was except you can't bet actual money on it. The current number is a 62% chance that the Republicans retain Senate, but I have no idea if it's worth a drat. Princeton Election Consortium has both senate forecasts and general election forecasts. Currently they have the Senate at likely being 50/50. The Democrats need 4 seats to get to 50. Currently they've got 2 all but certain pick ups thanks to Kirk and Johnson being DOA. Harry Reid is retiring and his seat isn't safe however. So in addition to keeping Reid's seat and picking up the Illinois and Wisconsin seats, they still need to pick up at least two. Chances are pretty good, especially with Marco Rubio running around telling women that they've got to keep their Zika babies because God said so. They've really got to run up the score if they want to continue holding the Senate in 2018 though. There's only 8 Republican seats up for reelection, while both Independents who caucus with the Democrats are up, and 23 Democrats are up. Also it's going to be a midterm year like 2010 when the Republicans freak out and the Democrats stay home. Sword of Chomsky posted:I've been trying to explain the difference between Vilerat's Mother and Mr. Kahn to family, and I am making no ground. They see them as exactly the same, and wonder why the media didnt attack clinton the same way they came after Trump. Its disgustingly infuriating. Did you point out that Trump spent a week attacking the Kahns, which is what the media was covering, while Hillary made nary a peep about Vilerat's Mom? Gyges fucked around with this message at 01:54 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 01:51
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Bushiz posted:If we're gleefully posting nowcast stuff, here's my favorite: Is that Johnson OVER Trump in DC 
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Aug 9, 2016 01:52
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America is perceived as a lawsuit-happy culture because filing a lawsuit is relatively cheap and serves to expedite settlement negotiations. We don't really have an alternate dispute resolution method. Generally, if someone is complaining about a lawsuit happy culture, and they're American, they've fallen for the lie of the need for "tort reform," which serves to effectively immunize insurance companies from large judgments. As a result, in many states, it's effectively impossible to sue for medical malpractice, as any judgment would be capped at $250,000, which would get eaten up almost entirely by attorney expenses and fees during the course of the trial. Some dudes even wrote a lovely song about it that isn't that lovely! https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4lhuN-gpwqo
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Aug 9, 2016 01:53
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weekly font posted:Maybe Bloody Sock Schilling but not Bloated Racist Schilling. You know there's a real special reason why Rhode Island hates Curt Schilling unrelated to his racism, right? https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/38_Studios
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Aug 9, 2016 01:55
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Teddybear posted:America is perceived as a lawsuit-happy culture because filing a lawsuit is relatively cheap and serves to expedite settlement negotiations. We don't really have an alternate dispute resolution method. Also doesn't help that a non-trivial amount of our commercials are injury attorneys, at least here in Milwaukee.
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Aug 9, 2016 01:55
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iospace posted:Also doesn't help that a non-trivial amount of our commercials are injury attorneys, at least here in Milwaukee. PI attorneys were always around, but the lifting of restrictions on attorney advertising really allowed public awareness of them to spread. A widespread campaign can pay for itself if you get a few good cases out of it, considering the contingency system-- plus the client gets the compensation they're legally owed. It just kinda makes us all look like ambulance chasers, is all.
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Aug 9, 2016 02:00
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Raenir Salazar posted:What *is* potentially causing SC to flip if it doesn't have the population trends like GA and NC do? super low republican turnout and super high democratic turnout it's largely polling anomalies though. georgia could go blue this year, but probably wont. south carolina certainly wont boner confessor fucked around with this message at 02:02 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 02:00
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Teddybear posted:America is perceived as a lawsuit-happy culture because filing a lawsuit is relatively cheap and serves to expedite settlement negotiations. We don't really have an alternate dispute resolution method. Also we don't have a loser pays system. In fact it's hard in general to get the judge to force the loser to pay even if it's obvious the lawsuit was malicious.
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Aug 9, 2016 02:00
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Trabisnikof posted:Also OtherworldlyInvader was wrong, Ivanpah has no storage capacity, it is Crescent Dunes that is the prototype plant for CSP with storage. I inappropriately conflated overnight energy storage with the thing Ivanpah does where they burn NG to heat up the system in the morning to get output running faster. Thanks for setting the record straight.
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Aug 9, 2016 02:02
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Raenir Salazar posted:What *is* potentially causing SC to flip if it doesn't have the population trends like GA and NC do?  EDIT: Like Trump is so aggressively stupid that even a good chunk of standard Republican voters are abandoning him. Yinlock fucked around with this message at 04:52 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 04:43
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Bushiz posted:If we're gleefully posting nowcast stuff, here's my favorite: But if you unskew this poll, Trump wins by 200%! loving lamestream media.
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Aug 9, 2016 04:55
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happyhippy posted:But if you unskew this poll, Trump wins by 200%! 11th dimensional cheeto chess. So did any new beefs come out of the Trump speech today? All I heard of it was repealing the estate tax and some other economics garbage that's par for the course with the GOP, but nothing new on the "say just every dumb loving thing" front.
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Aug 9, 2016 05:01
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The one true polling aggregator has updated: Man, those polls just keep getting more and more liberally biased!
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Aug 9, 2016 05:05
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Crain posted:11th dimensional cheeto chess. Just standard boring stuff as far as I know, he was reading (poorly) off of a teleprompter and didn't even mention his arch enemy, a literal baby. Here's the economic plan details he released: At some point in the future, he will have an economic plan.
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Aug 9, 2016 05:07
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When do we get the unskewed polls? The ones where Trump is winning New York, Minnesota and California!
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Aug 9, 2016 05:09
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Rasmussen is biased TOWARDS  ?
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Aug 9, 2016 05:10
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Spiffster posted:that may be but watch it keep going lower For those interested, the latest li'l jump in the now-cast is due to a poll showing Trump barely hanging on in Missouri. Not really the reddest state, but not previously considered in play either. Trump sure is redrawing the map, just like he said he would!
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Aug 9, 2016 05:11
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Susan Collins will not vote for Trumpquote:I will not be voting for Donald Trump for president. This is not a decision I make lightly, for I am a lifelong Republican. But Donald Trump does not reflect historical Republican values nor the inclusive approach to governing that is critical to healing the divisions in our country.
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Aug 9, 2016 05:13
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Did one of JEB! Bush's kids really endorse trump? Is Jeb somehow still a mess even after the loving primary?!
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Aug 9, 2016 05:15
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