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ImpAtom posted:Does Trump have any reasonable path to victory without PA? He needs Ohio, Florida, and some combinations of NH, Iowa, Nevada, Colorado and Virginia. E.g. http://www.270towin.com/maps/xokK7
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Aug 9, 2016 20:05
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Are there even the remotest odds that Indiana goes blue?
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Aug 9, 2016 20:07
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ImpAtom posted:Does Trump have any reasonable path to victory without PA? Nope. The NY Times has this branching model where you can explore various permutations of the 10 swingiest states. Without PA in play (they actually took it out of the diagram a few days back), Trump has to sweep almost every one of those states. Funnily, they actually consider Mississippi to be slightly more of a swing state than Pennsylvania.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:08
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ImpAtom posted:Does Trump have any reasonable path to victory without PA? 
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Aug 9, 2016 20:08
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Deified Data posted:Are there even the remotest odds that Indiana goes blue? This cycle? Sure.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:08
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NC is currently polling for Clinton. Sure, its polls, but that's still not good considering how little he is spending.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:11
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That noise you hear is the word "reasonable" screaming in pain.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:11
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https://twitter.com/SenSanders/status/763088432382042112?s=09
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Aug 9, 2016 20:12
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"clear sense of Trump's hole"
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Aug 9, 2016 20:12
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Trump would take PA, CO, and VA, long long before he ever won New Mexico in that map. The most likely Trump map is to flip VA and either IA + NH or IA + NV. Neither of which is especially likely.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:13
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CommieGIR posted:NC is currently polling for Clinton. Sure, its polls, but that's still not good considering how little he is spending. Yeah, I'm just kinda spitballing. It's extremely unlikely, but all the "swing states" I gave to Trump are close enough and within the margin of error. So its possible, however unlikely.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:13
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Trump will take ny and ca
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Aug 9, 2016 20:15
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In fairness to him, rigging a primary would be hypothetically way easier than a general election. But yeah. Bernie burnt a lot of my good will to him invoking bullshit right wing "it's rigged!" rhetoric and convincing otherwise intelligent liberal people that Hillary is a bad person.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:16
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zoux posted:
Trump flips Va then congress votes him in when Hillary doesn't have 270. 
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Aug 9, 2016 20:16
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BonoMan posted:I don't think he's arguing against you dude. He's just saying in an ideal world you'd do both. He's not saying if you can't do both don't do either. I get that - the issue is that I don't think we're going to get previous loan forgiveness, and if we tie the two together we won't get state-sponsored college tuition.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:17
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He's back at it, folks! Good ol' Trump. https://twitter.com/CandaceSmith_/status/763089093957787649
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Aug 9, 2016 20:17
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The amount of "well maybe we should be jailing/killing my political opponent" this election should really be setting off more red flags among the political class.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:20
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EcxkkrNSv-4
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Aug 9, 2016 20:21
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Lightning Knight posted:Bernie burnt a lot of my good will to him invoking bullshit right wing "it's rigged!" rhetoric and convincing otherwise intelligent liberal people that Hillary is a bad person. Did Bernie do that, or was it his bros?
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Aug 9, 2016 20:22
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Shimrra Jamaane posted:PA was never going to go red and everyone talking as if it would were stupid. It was the same thing in 2012...
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Aug 9, 2016 20:22
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Leon Trotsky 2012 posted:Trump would take PA, CO, and VA, long long before he ever won New Mexico in that map. RCP currently has VA at Clinton +7 (and one of the polls in the average is a really stale one from June). She's up a ton, and I think that OH is a much more likely flip than VA at this point. Which is to say that a snowball has a better chance on the surface of the sun than in the core of the sun.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:22
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REALLY can't wait for the Trump campaigns explanation about how this is a joke.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:23
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Radish posted:The amount of "well maybe we should be jailing/killing my political opponent" this election should really be setting off more red flags among the political class. https://twitter.com/AoDespair/status/763092542665687043 This man wrote the Wire
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Aug 9, 2016 20:22
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Le Saboteur posted:He's back at it, folks! Good ol' Trump.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:23
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https://twitter.com/ddale8/status/763093095240044544
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Aug 9, 2016 20:26
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Everything is fine. The Pivot is coming any day now.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:26
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I'm glad trump is just spouting rhetoric and nothing he says matters or has lasting impact.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:27
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Lightning Knight posted:In fairness to him, rigging a primary would be hypothetically way easier than a general election. Did he? Or was that just his dumb followers? I mean he always said the system was rigged but he was talking about trickle down economics and campaign finance, not elections.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:28
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Wowwwwwwwwww It IS a joke, but the joke is "You guys should shoot Hillary hardy har har!"
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Aug 9, 2016 20:28
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And now its blowing up, there goes another news cycle for Trump.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:28
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This is trivially easy to deflect and spin. So that's going to make the seven day controversy over it even more baffling.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:30
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zoux posted:This is trivially easy to deflect and spin. So that's going to make the seven day controversy over it even more baffling. Look when I said the Second amendment I wasn't talking about guns. I was talking about private militias.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:30
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How do you spin this one without sounding incredibly disingenuous? "Second Amendment solutions" is pretty clear. I know that Trump supporters have no problem with bullshit excuses but most of the media now isn't really willing to give Trump as much of the benefit of the doubt anymore. I'd have to think even Republicans might have a problem with people openly calling for the killing of other politicians. Eggplant Squire fucked around with this message at 20:33 on Aug 9, 2016 |
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Aug 9, 2016 20:31
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zoux posted:This is trivially easy to deflect and spin. So that's going to make the seven day controversy over it even more baffling. ....how, exactly? The joke is really straightforward.
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Aug 9, 2016 20:32
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Radish posted:How do you spin this one without sounding incredibly disingenuous? "Second Amendment solutions" is pretty clear. He was just saying Clinton is so evil she might violate the Second Amendment with her judicial pick!
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Aug 9, 2016 20:33
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What was that claim that Trump was turning a corner on gaffes? https://twitter.com/stevenjldamico/status/763090887350026241?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw
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Aug 9, 2016 20:33
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Dexo posted:Look when I said the Second amendment I wasn't talking about guns. I was talking about private militias. I mean we all know what he meant, but if you're a surrogate this all about the main stream media grasping for another Trump scandal after a bold, presidential speech yesterday. He clearly meant that second amendment activists should exercise their right to vote at the ballot OR he meant that the NRA and other gun lobbies could exert their considerable effort to beat Hillary
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Aug 9, 2016 20:33
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Le Saboteur posted:He's back at it, folks! Good ol' Trump. "Second Amendment Solutions" again? What the gently caress. If a private citizen said that poo poo they'd be getting a Secret Service visit (rightfully so). 
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Aug 9, 2016 20:34
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I don't know why we're debating Clinton winning swing states (PA, OH, VA, FL), we shouldn't really have to worry about those. The real story is her possibly winning GA and AZ, which are both polling in her favor right now. This is the Polls-Only Forecast (the Nowcast always feel like a bit of cheating): 
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Aug 9, 2016 20:34
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axeil posted:"Second Amendment Solutions" again? This has happened before https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/763095687487746048 The press release Reid is gonna cook up about this one, mwah!
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Aug 9, 2016 20:34
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