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Fangz posted:She's up by 4 in Marist. Oh, I thought it was two. My bad. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/ I'm still curious why in these swing states, like Florida for instance, she isn't further ahead. I'm only comforted by the fact she doesn't need many swing states to win. I still think this election is going to be a lot closer than people realise. It's entirely conceivable that Trump wins Ohio, Florida, NC and Iowa.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:37
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CelestialScribe posted:Oh, I thought it was two. My bad. http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/ohio/ it probably isn't
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Aug 10, 2016 21:39
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Those states are 'swing states' because they were states that were close between Obama and Romney in 2012 despite Obama having a large lead nationally. They are inherently defined to be more pro-Republican than the average state.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:40
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lol, freaking out because Clinton isn't absolutely destroying Trump in some swing states. What matters is that she's prohibitively ahead in PA, CO, VA, and NH, and can thus focus resources elsewhere.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:41
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Mr Interweb posted:Holy shite... I want to believe. Oh god how I want to believe even though Clinton winning districts doesn't mean incumbents lose and I'd be surprised if even a Clinton +10 victory caused the House to flip. OTOH, if Trump causes the GOP to suffer a cascade failure that sweeps them out of the majority in both chambers I can't even begin to imagine what the lame duck period is going to look like. Not only would Garland get fast-tracked but would we see Ryan and others try to pass a bunch of moderate garbage so that the Dems don't just shut them out in January to pass things on their own? The senate though? I'm going to be stunned beyond belief if the GOP can manage to hold on there since all the Dems really need is to tie people like Toomey to Trump and they're toast. Dems need 4 wins and they're looking at 3 that appear to be a lock so far aren't they? BiohazrD posted:Isn't 1% "only" like 200-300k a year? He's definitely in there. For households, the top 5% is around 225k or so. Top 1% is around 500k IIRC. Dexo posted:What? CS is trying to be a dumber version of Arzy. Instead they tend to just be dumb.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:41
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Spatula City posted:lol, freaking out because Clinton isn't absolutely destroying Trump in some swing states. What matters is that she's prohibitively ahead in PA, CO, VA, and NH, and can thus focus resources elsewhere. Does no one read usernames around here?
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Aug 10, 2016 21:41
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Spatula City posted:lol, freaking out because Clinton isn't absolutely destroying Trump in some swing states. What matters is that she's prohibitively ahead in PA, CO, VA, and NH, and can thus focus resources elsewhere. The story of this election has always been "if Pennsylvania's a lock, Clinton almost can't lose" And Pennsylvania's a lock, so...
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Aug 10, 2016 21:41
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theflyingorc posted:The story of this election has always been "if Pennsylvania's a lock, Clinton almost can't lose" She absolutely can win PA and still lose. It's not likely, but it's possible.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:43
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So I went and read the full Op-Ed Hillary did for DesNews and holy poo poo:quote:Americans don’t have to agree on everything. We never have. But when it comes to religion, we strive to be accepting of everyone around us. That’s because we need each other. And we know that it so often takes a village — or a ward — working together to build the change we hope to see. For those of you that don't know, a ward is what they call a single congregation in Mormon speak. I don't know who's doing her research but they're sure paying attention to signalling details.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:44
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SubponticatePoster posted:So I went and read the full Op-Ed Hillary did for DesNews and holy poo poo: As our resident UT expert, what's your overall impression of the letter?
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Aug 10, 2016 21:46
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Evil Fluffy posted:I want to believe. Oh god how I want to believe even though Clinton winning districts doesn't mean incumbents lose and I'd be surprised if even a Clinton +10 victory caused the House to flip. OTOH, if Trump causes the GOP to suffer a cascade failure that sweeps them out of the majority in both chambers I can't even begin to imagine what the lame duck period is going to look like. Not only would Garland get fast-tracked but would we see Ryan and others try to pass a bunch of moderate garbage so that the Dems don't just shut them out in January to pass things on their own? I think you are expecting more out of the swing state Democratic parties than they have to give. I don't know what originally caused it, but those parties have just completely lost the ability to field decent candidates or campaign for them. There is no way Ernst should have been elected in Iowa, but the Democratic party did their usual poo poo job. I didn't hear anything about the Democrat in that election, every one of their ads I saw it heard was just "Ernst bad, a vote for our guy is a vote against her" which really doesn't get people out to vote.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:48
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zoux posted:As our resident UT expert, what's your overall impression of the letter? 
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Aug 10, 2016 21:54
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zoux posted:As our resident UT expert, what's your overall impression of the letter? Someone made a list of specific Mormon references in that op-ed: http://juvenileinstructor.org/it-ta...ret-news-op-ed/ Whoever wrote it really did their homework.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:57
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Sundae posted:"He might be a worthless rear end in a top hat, but he's our worthless rear end in a top hat" is a fairly common sentiment to see pretty much everywhere. He might be fair game to criticize locally, but don't you outsiders dare talk poo poo about (insert lovely thing/person here). Right, and this is a Governor of a swing state of the same party as you. Someone you really don't want to piss the locals off about.
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Aug 10, 2016 21:58
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HorseRenoir posted:Someone made a list of specific Mormon references in that op-ed: http://juvenileinstructor.org/it-ta...ret-news-op-ed/ Triangulation!
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Aug 10, 2016 21:59
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Chin Strap posted:Man his rap career really took a nose dive if he's letting dudes have sex with him on a lawn. omg
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Aug 10, 2016 22:02
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zoux posted:Triangulation! Don't blow too soon. You still have 6 months until then.
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Aug 10, 2016 22:01
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https://www.facebook.com/cnn/videos/10155153802976509/ Some dude climbing Trump Tower
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Aug 10, 2016 22:32
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Another live stream of Trump https://www.facebook.com/ABC7NY/videos/10153928213704091/
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Aug 10, 2016 22:33
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androo posted:https://www.facebook.com/cnn/videos/10155153802976509/ I hope he takes a liquid poo poo all over the sign live on camera.
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Aug 10, 2016 22:36
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Man, that looks like it would take fooooorrrreeevvver. Placing each cup, manually pumping each one. Dude is gonna be tired when he gets to the top and security tackles his rear end.
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Aug 10, 2016 22:35
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Dipshit Donald forgot his loving keys again.
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Aug 10, 2016 22:41
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Harrow posted:Again? Is there some "Clinton is bad on animal rights" thing I'm not aware of? Or are they just targeting her because they think more left-leaning audiences are more likely to listen, whereas they'd just get beaten up at a Trump rally? It's the second one. It's definitely direct action everywhere who have that video with that women going into that eatery and screaming at them for eating her "child's" brother and sisters.
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Aug 10, 2016 22:50
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Young Freud posted:As is this: Russia is accusing Ukraine of an aborted terror attack, that's looking more like a Gleiwitz-style false flag to create a casus belli for invading Ukraine... It's unfair to compare this to the actions of nazis, russians already have a proud history of creating their own false flag operations. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shelling_of_Mainila
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Aug 10, 2016 22:56
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https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP493LmSJrE Is this the guy?
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Aug 10, 2016 23:00
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Goon Danton posted:Is there any use in calling my idiot senator Toomey's office and asking if he's willing to denounce Trump yet? Beyond my own amusement that is. Trip Report! Toomey's office is not answering the phone. "The office is closed. Our normal hours are 8:30 AM to 6 PM, Monday through Thursday..." -Toomey's office voicemail, 5:30 PM
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Aug 10, 2016 23:07
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Hahahaha https://twitter.com/JuliaDavisNews/status/763471607910260737
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Aug 10, 2016 23:08
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Dork457 posted:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sP493LmSJrE god i hope so
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Aug 10, 2016 23:08
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zoux posted:As our resident UT expert, what's your overall impression of the letter? Critical analysis? quote:I’m running for president to make sure our country continues to live up to our founding principles. Those timeless ideas teach us that we’re stronger together when we work in unison to solve our problems, no matter what we look like, where we come from or how we pray. She namedrops Jon Huntsman for the local connection and Jefferson as a Founding Father. Mentions some of Trump's Greatest (S)Hits like the Khans, NATO, and nukes. quote:But you don’t have to take it from me. Listen to Mitt Romney, who said Trump “fired before aiming” when he decided a blanket religious ban was a solution to the threat of terrorism.  Bring it all back home, baby.Oh, and then there's this: quote:As Sister Rosemary M. Wixom once said, “As individuals we are strong. Together, with God, we are unstoppable.” Now how am I reading this? It's dogwhistling, but not the racist kind. This is a letter rather meticulously crafted to appeal to LDS women (the menfolk are 99% going to vote Trump or Johnson). Repeated mentions of family and children. local references all tied up with a great big God-bow. Mormons are patriarchal as all hell, but they're also benevolently sexist (if such a thing can be considered a positive). They don't discourage girls from being athletic or smart. Women are constantly referred to as being strong. They held state office a long frigging time ago - before suffrage, even! I don't have statistics in front of me, but I think around 60% of the state population is LDS. Again, these people are going to be 95% white so generally speaking they don't face many hurdles to voting. If she can siphon off even 30% of the ladies with "I'm not an insane rear end in a top hat" and also the idea of voting for the first woman POTUS combined with the split between the Don and the Johnson, you might just see Utah go blue.
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Aug 10, 2016 23:09
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The usual strategy for gerrymandering is to "pack and crack" districts by compacting the opposition party's voters into the same district so their votes are wasted on electing only one representative, while the rest of the opposition party's voters are cracked amongst the rest of the districts your party is supposed to win. That means the margin of victory is smaller in those districts than those in the opposition, and thus theoretically easier to flip.  The main problem is that congressional incumbents are generally and notoriously hard to get rid of anyway, so an easier margin of victory to overcome doesn't necessarily translate to an easier time flipping the district. But gerrymandered districts have been flipped before, and if the state parties effectively get out the vote and nominate good candidates there's definitely an opportunity to flip the House.
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Aug 10, 2016 23:10
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Cops took out a big pane 10 feet above him, I thought he would break it and he'd be taking a shower in glass shards.. Thunderstorms hit the area two hours ago and might do so again, so he picked a lousy time to do climbing Supposedly he had a laptop earlier but he dropped it. I hope he craps all over the side of the building.
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Aug 10, 2016 23:10
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So actual policy question: One of Donald Drumpf's few actual stated policy goals is repatriation of money stored offshore by American companies, untaxed. He's offering to let companies bring it into the American system with a one-time jubilee of a 10% tax on repatriated money. Ignoring the fact that these companies currently are enjoying a 0% jubilee since they are doing fine not being taxed at all, what on Earth could the fascist yam do to enforce this?
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Aug 10, 2016 23:11
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:Ignoring the fact that these companies currently are enjoying a 0% jubilee since they are doing fine not being taxed at all, what on Earth could the fascist yam do to enforce this? There were references in some of his speeches 9 or so months ago to just taxing it anyway, but like everything he's said it's unclear how serious it was.
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Aug 10, 2016 23:17
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Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:So actual policy question: One of Donald Drumpf's few actual stated policy goals is repatriation of money stored offshore by American companies, untaxed. He's offering to let companies bring it into the American system with a one-time jubilee of a 10% tax on repatriated money. If this policy is anything like his other ones, the plan is probably to shut down Western Union and then execute the companies' employees' families.
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Aug 10, 2016 23:25
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Phone posted:*shitlords drape the Gadsden flag over a cop they just murdered* * after having just left the first Bundy Ranch standoff ** also they left behind a manifesto stating explicitly that they were sovcits Dr. Angela Ziegler posted:So actual policy question: One of Donald Drumpf's few actual stated policy goals is repatriation of money stored offshore by American companies, untaxed. He's offering to let companies bring it into the American system with a one-time jubilee of a 10% tax on repatriated money. Bush tried that IIRC and of course it failed horribly because why pay to bring money back when you're already paying nothing to have it in Ireland? If you really want to bring that money back, declare war on Ireland
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Aug 10, 2016 23:26
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https://twitter.com/thehill/status/763489360348143616 Is he a pathological liar or what? https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/763477408909500416
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Aug 10, 2016 23:28
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I'm slowly starting to fall into the "he never intended to actually win the nomination and now he's busily sabotaging himself in a panic"-theory camp watching this idiot
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Aug 10, 2016 23:33
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That money is never coming back stateside, iirc both Bush and Obama tried an amnesty for money repatriation and the results are as you would expect when the appropriate analogy is calling your stolen cell phone and asking pretty please bring my gold studded car made of bearer bonds back, please?
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Aug 10, 2016 23:33
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He still hasn't explicitly told his base not to shoot anyone, has he? Also, hi from Baltimore. It's getting harder and harder to convince people from out of town that this city isn't completely awful 
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Aug 10, 2016 23:33
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They nabbed the Trump tower climber.
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Aug 10, 2016 23:36
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